Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, emphasizing that the dollar is a super-sovereign currency while US Treasuries represent sovereign debt. This distinction highlights the complexities of US monetary policy and its implications for global finance [1][2]. Group 1: US Monetary Policy and Sovereign Debt - The US Supreme Court reaffirmed the independence of the Federal Reserve, indicating ongoing tensions between the Trump administration and the Fed regarding monetary policy and the status of the dollar [2][3]. - The article argues that the US government faces challenges in managing its debt without compromising the dollar's super-sovereign status, leading to the need for complex debt restructuring methods [6][15]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Credit Risk - The article presents a formula for understanding the long-term yield of any country's debt when expressed in dollars, indicating that the yield is influenced by the federal funds rate and the country's sovereign credit risk premium [9][11]. - It suggests that concerns about rising 10-year Treasury yields may be misplaced, as these yields should not be viewed as risk-free rates but rather as reflecting credit risk [11][12]. Group 3: Currency Manipulation and Trade Policy - The US government can influence the value of the dollar indirectly by affecting the monetary policies of other sovereign nations, such as through tariff policies that compel other countries to appreciate their currencies [19][21]. - The article discusses historical instances, such as the Plaza Accord, where coordinated efforts among major economies were used to manage currency values and address trade imbalances [28][29]. Group 4: Debt Management Strategies - The article posits that the current trade war can be viewed as a global debt restructuring effort, where the US seeks to alleviate its debt burden by compelling other nations to strengthen their currencies against the dollar [32][34]. - It highlights the role of Japan's central bank as a secondary central bank for the US, suggesting that Japan's monetary policy decisions are often influenced by US needs [26][33].

Financial Report Key Information Review - Total revenue for the quarter was $789 million, with a year-over-year growth of 2.0% [1] - Net sales reached $526 million, showing a year-over-year increase of 1.9% [1] - Membership fees amounted to $10.4 million, with a year-over-year growth of 6.1% [1] - Total gross profit was $64.7 million, reflecting a gross profit margin (GPM) of 10.3% [1] - Operating profit stood at $16.8 million, with an operating profit margin (OPM) of 3.1% [1] - Net profit was $13.0 million, resulting in a net profit margin (NPM) of 2.4% [1] - Comparable sales growth was 0.0%, with notable performance in the U.S. and Canada [1] Management Commentary Highlights - The company opened 9 new stores in Q3 and plans to open 10 more in Q4, aiming for a total of 27 new stores this fiscal year [2] - Strategies to mitigate tariff impacts include extending gas station hours and lowering prices on key items like eggs and butter [2] - The Kirkland Signature brand saw sales growth exceeding overall sales, with a penetration rate increase of approximately 50 basis points [2] - Technological innovations include the launch of a "buy now, pay later" service, enhancing member experience [2] Financial Performance Insights - The gross margin for core business improved by 36 basis points, driven by strong sales in the fresh food sector [3] - SG&A expenses increased by 13 basis points due to rising employee wages, partially offset by sales leverage [5] - Capital expenditures for Q3 were approximately $1.13 billion, with an estimated annual total exceeding $5 billion [6] Category Performance - Fresh food same-store sales grew in the high single digits, while non-food categories also saw similar growth [6] - Inflation rates for fresh food and groceries remained similar to the previous quarter, with non-food inflation showing low single digits for the first time in several quarters [6] Future Outlook - Despite tariff impacts and economic uncertainties, the company remains confident in its operational flexibility and commitment to providing high-value products and services [6]

全球折扣零售王者——Costco 于北京时间 5 月 30 日美股盘后，发布了截至月份的 2025 财年 3 季度财报。如往常一致，本季 Costco 的表现仍是波澜不惊的平稳， 具体来看： 1、同店增长依然稳健：Costco 本季度整体同店名义销售增速为 5.7% ，相比上季度显著放缓了 1.1pct。但实际 主要是受油价和汇率影响的拖累，剔除这些因素后 同店增速仍达 7.9%， 表现并不差。 价量驱动上， 同店客流量本季增长 5.2%，只是略有放缓。但受汇率等的拖累，平均客单价同比增速本季明显下滑到 0.4% ，是名义同店销售增长走弱的主要原 因。 2、海外地区增长并不差：加拿大和其他国际地区 3% 上下的名义增速明显跑输美国本土 6.6% 的同比。 海外看似疲软，但 实际也只是受油价和汇率的扰动。 剔除这部分因素 ，加拿大和其他国际地区的同店销售增速都在 8% 上下，和美国地区是基本一致的。 可见， Costco 实际在全球范围内的经营表现都相当稳健。 3、会员费收入：本季为$12.4 亿，比预期稍低了 0.1 亿。不过趋势上，同比增长 10.4%，是 4Q23 以来最高的。属于趋势向好，但没市场预期的 ...

迈威尔科技 Marvell(MRVL.O) 北京时间 5 月 30 日凌晨，美股盘后发布 2026 财年第一季度财报（截至 2025 年 4 月）： 1.整体业绩 ： 收入 19 亿美元，环比增长 4.3% ，与预期 18.8 亿基本一致；收入季度环比增量的 0.8 亿美元，主要来自于数据中心及 AI 业务的带动。 调整后的毛利率为 59.2%，环比下降 0.3pct。公司毛利率呈现下降的趋势，主要是因为定制 ASIC 等相关业务毛利率相对较低。随着业务增长，结构性拉低了公司 的毛利率。 2.数据中心 ： 收入 14.4 亿美元，环比增长 5.5% ，增长来自于 AI 业务的带动。本季度数据中心占比达到 76%。 海豚君预估公司本季度 AI 业务收入 8.3 亿美元， 环比增长 0.9 亿美元 ，而非 AI 业务在本季度预计出现小幅回落。 3.下季度指引：收入 20 亿美元，符合市场预期（20 亿美元）， 环比增长主要来自于数据中心及 AI 业务 ； 毛利率（GAAP）50.5%，基本保持平稳。海豚君估算下季度调整后的毛利率为 59.1%，环比下滑 0.1pct 左右。 | | | | Marvell (MR ...

Core Insights - Marvell's Q1 FY26 financial performance showed total revenue of $1.82 billion, exceeding consensus estimates by 0.89% [1] - The company reported a net income of $180 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 151.0% [1] - The gross margin for Q1 FY26 was 50.6%, slightly above the expected 48.3% [1] Financial Performance - Total Revenue: $1.82 billion, up 4.3% quarter-over-quarter and 19.9% year-over-year [1] - Gross Profit: $950 million with a gross margin of 50.6% [1] - R&D expenses were $510 million, accounting for 26.9% of revenue [1] - SG&A expenses were $190 million, representing 10.8% of revenue [1] - Net Income: $180 million, with a net profit margin of 9.4% [1] Q2 Guidance - Revenue is expected to be around $2 billion, with a variance of ±5% [2] - GAAP gross margin is projected to be between 50% and 51%, while Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be between 59% and 60% [3] - GAAP diluted EPS is forecasted to be between $0.16 and $0.26, and Non-GAAP diluted EPS is expected to be between $0.62 and $0.72 [3] Business Dynamics - Marvell plans to sell its automotive Ethernet business to Infineon for $2.5 billion, expected to close in 2025, enhancing capital allocation flexibility [6] - The data center market showed strong performance with Q1 revenue of $1.44 billion, a 5% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 76% increase year-over-year [7] - The company is optimistic about the long-term potential of the data center business, driven by capital expenditures from hyperscale enterprises and sovereign data demands [7] Technology Developments - Marvell is focusing on scaling AI chip production and optical product shipments [8] - The company is developing custom HBM and Co-Packaged Optics technologies to optimize AI accelerator performance [9] - Collaboration with NVIDIA to introduce NVLink Fusion technology is underway, supporting custom XPU projects [10] Market Performance - The enterprise networking and carrier infrastructure market reported combined revenue of $306 million in Q1, with a 14% quarter-over-quarter increase [11] - The automotive and industrial market had Q1 revenue of $76 million, down 12% quarter-over-quarter [14] Future Outlook - AI has become a significant portion of new business in the data center segment, with custom projects like XPU expected to drive revenue growth [16] - A custom AI investor event is scheduled for June 17, focusing on market opportunities and technology platforms [17]

以下是 理想汽车 FY25 Q1 的财报电话会纪要，财报解读请移步《 增程已老、纯电难料，理想的现实太 "骨感" 》 一、财报核心信息回顾 1、Q2 展望 （1）交付量：预计 12.3 万–12.8 万辆，同比 +13.3%–17.9%。 （2）总收入：预计人民币 325 亿–338 亿元（约合 45 亿–47 亿美元），同比 +2.5%–6.7%。 | | | | Li Auto Earnings Recap | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 100mn/RMB | 1Q23 | 2023 | 3023 | 4023 | 1024 | 2024 | 3024 | 4Q24 | 1025 | | 1Q25E 1Q25 Gap 2Q25指弓 | 2Q25E | | Total revs | 188 | 286.5 | 346.8 | 417.3 | 256.3 | 316.8 | 428.7 | 442.7 | 259.3 | 255.4 | ...

英伟达 (NVDA.O) 北京时间 5 月 29 日凌晨，美股盘后发布 2026 财年第一季度财报（截至 2025 年 4 月），具体内容如下： 以下为英伟达 FY25Q1 的财报电话会纪要，财报解读请移步《 英伟达：别质疑，还是那个宇宙第一股！ 》 一、英伟达 财报核心信息回顾 | NVIDIA (NVDA.O) FY26Q1 Financial Performance | (in US$ million) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1Q23A | 2Q23A | 3Q23A | 4Q23A | 1024A | 2Q24A | 3Q24A | 4Q24A | 1Q25A | A VS Cons | Consensus | 13,507 ...

Core Viewpoint - Li Auto's Q1 2024 performance was generally in line with expectations, but the guidance for Q2 is disappointing, indicating potential challenges in maintaining sales momentum and pricing power [5][21][36]. Sales Performance - In Q1, Li Auto's vehicle sales revenue reached 24.7 billion RMB, exceeding market expectations by approximately 500 million RMB, primarily due to lower-than-expected price declines [1][36]. - The sales volume guidance for Q2 is set at 123,000 to 128,000 units, which implies an average monthly sales of around 46,000 units for May and June, below market expectations [5][21]. Gross Margin and Profitability - The gross margin for vehicle sales in Q1 was 19.8%, slightly below the market's expectation of around 20% [2][14]. - The overall gross profit margin for the company was 20.5%, indicating a stable but unimpressive performance [36][39]. Inventory and Pricing Strategy - Li Auto's inventory turnover days increased to approximately 40 days, suggesting that the company may need to offer further discounts on older models to clear stock [26][42]. - The average selling price (ASP) of vehicles is expected to decline by 13,000 RMB in Q2, reflecting ongoing pricing pressures [25][27]. Research and Development - R&D expenses for Q1 were 2.5 billion RMB, with a slight increase from the previous quarter, reflecting ongoing investments in AI and autonomous driving technologies [30][31]. - The company has revised its annual R&D expense guidance down from 14 billion RMB to a range of 11 to 12 billion RMB, indicating a potential for profit release [31]. Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - Operating cash flow turned negative at -1.7 billion RMB in Q1, primarily due to declining sales and increased inventory [42]. - Capital expenditures were reduced to 800 million RMB, reflecting a slowdown in new store openings and infrastructure investments [45]. Market Competition and Future Outlook - The competitive landscape for range-extended vehicles is intensifying, with new entrants and existing competitors increasing pressure on Li Auto's market share [7][8]. - The market remains optimistic about Li Auto's upcoming pure electric models, which are expected to drive future sales growth [9][10].

英伟达 (NVDA.O)北京时间5月29日凌晨，美股盘后发布 2026财年第一季度财报（截至 2025年4月），具体内容如下： 1.核心经营指标 ： 收入440.6亿美元，符合预期（433.7亿美元） ，其中季度环比增长47亿美元，受数据中心业务和游戏业务的带动。 毛利率60.5%，低于预期 （68.9%） ， 其中H20芯片计提存货减值大约有45亿左右的影响 。若不考虑该突发事件影响，公司本季度毛利率将回到71%附近。 2.数据中心 ：391.1亿美元，同比增长72%。H20事件，只影响本季度后两周的相关收入，整体影响较小。而对收入端的影响，将主要体现在后两个季度。 细分来看：本季度计算收入396亿美元，网络业务收入45亿美元。 其中本季度计算收入环比增长有所放缓，下游部分客户更加期待后续量产的GB300产品， 将相 应资本开支的节奏做了调整。 3.游戏业务 ：37.6亿美元，同比增长42%，是本季度最亮眼的一项。受公司推出的RTX50系列产品的推动，相比于AMD游戏业务的下滑，英伟达在独显市场的份额 进一步提升。 4.利润 ：公司本季度核心经营利润216亿美元，同比增长28%。核心经营利润率回落至49.1 ...

（2）2026-2030 年：新目标为2000 亿元研发投入。 小米集团（1810.HK）于北京时间 2025 年 5 月 27 日晚的港股盘后发布了 2025 年第一季度财报（截止 2025 年 3 月），要点如下： 以 下是小米 2025 年第一季度的财报电话会纪要，财报解读请移步《小米：一手汽车、一手国补，这次真要 "赢麻" 了？》 一、小米集团 财报核心信息回顾 | Xiaomi (1810.HK) Earnings Wrapup | (in RMB/,00mns) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1Q23 | 2Q23 | 4Q23 | 2Q24 | 3023 | 1Q24 | 3Q24 | 4Q24 | 1Q25 | 1Q25E | Gap | O ...