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520宠粉“钞”福利|现金红包大派送!
海豚投研· 2025-05-17 09:29
520 宠粉"钞"福利 5月19日-5月20日下午17:00,新群友宠粉季,海豚新用户社群将 掉落现金红包雨 ,新入群用户均拼手速 可 抢。 海豚君不玩虚的,只送现金! 520将近,海豚君再次为长期关注长桥海豚公众号的粉丝朋友们准备了一波现金红包福利: 任意加一位小助手均可入群 本活动最终解释权归海豚投研所有 红包无套路,希望更多粉丝加入我们的交流社群, 入群后,大家不仅可以第一时间看到海豚君的研究内 容,还能与群友在感兴趣的内容海阔天空,分享想法。 还未入群的用户,添加下方小助手微信即可申请入群。 ...
只要熬过楼市的“过山车”,龙一贝壳就没毛病
海豚投研· 2025-05-17 09:29
Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of Beike's latest earnings report is better than expected, with significant revenue growth, but the persistent issue of increasing revenue without profit remains unresolved [1][12][46]. Group 1: Existing Home Business - The GTV (Gross Transaction Value) of the existing home business increased by 28% year-on-year, outperforming the expected 24% growth, indicating the continued impact of policy benefits [1][15]. - Revenue from the existing home business grew by 20%, but this was lower than the GTV growth, reflecting a decline in the comprehensive commission rate [1][17]. - The comprehensive commission rate for existing homes decreased by 1.4 basis points to 1.18%, attributed to a higher proportion of non-self-operated business and potential commission discounts to stimulate transactions [1][17]. Group 2: New Home Business - The new home business saw a remarkable growth in transaction value, with a year-on-year increase of 53%, significantly exceeding market expectations [2][20]. - However, the revenue growth rate for new homes was lower than expected due to a decline in the comprehensive realization rate, which fell by 20 basis points [2][24]. - The new home business's revenue increased by 64% year-on-year, but the growth rate showed a deceleration compared to the previous quarter [2][24]. Group 3: Secondary Business Lines - The secondary business lines, including home decoration, rental, and home services, generated total revenue of 8.38 billion, a year-on-year increase of 39%, surpassing expectations [3][27]. - The rental business experienced a significant growth of 94% year-on-year, indicating a strong market position despite a generally weak rental market [3][29]. - The home decoration business, while improving, still underperformed expectations with a revenue growth of 22% [3][29]. Group 4: Profitability Issues - Despite revenue growth, the adjusted net profit remained nearly flat year-on-year, highlighting the ongoing issue of revenue growth not translating into profit [4][6][34]. - The overall gross profit margin decreased to 20.7%, down 2.3 percentage points from the previous quarter, primarily due to rising commission costs and a higher proportion of low-margin rental business [5][37]. - The operating profit margin fell from 3.2% to 2.5%, reflecting the challenges in maintaining profitability amidst rising costs [5][43]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The performance of Beike is significantly influenced by macroeconomic conditions in the real estate market, making future predictions challenging [12][13]. - Long-term prospects for Beike remain positive due to its dominant market position and execution capabilities, despite short-term volatility [12][13]. - Current valuation corresponds to an adjusted net profit multiple of approximately 16-17x PE, with potential for higher multiples if profit growth resumes [12][13].
网易(纪要):对未来 Pipeline 不用太担心
海豚投研· 2025-05-16 09:15
以下是 网易 2025 年一季度的财报电话会纪要,财报解读请移步《网易:防御变进击?别低估 "老树发新芽"!》 一、财报核心信息回顾: | NetEase (9999.HK/NTES.O) Earnings Results | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1Q23A 2Q23A 3Q23A vs Consensus Figures in CNY 100mn | 4Q23A | 1Q24A | 2Q24A | 3Q24A | 4Q24A | 1Q25A | Cons | | | Highlights Total revenues 250.5 240.1 272.7 | 271.4 | 268.5 | 254.9 | 262.1 | 267.5 | 288.3 | 285.4 | 1.00% | | 6.3% 3.7% 11.6% yoy | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.1% | -3.9% | -1.4% | 7.4% | 6.3% | | | Gross profit 149.0 143 ...
阿里巴巴(纪要):AI 是十年机会,外卖补贴可以替代营销投入
海豚投研· 2025-05-16 09:15
以下为 阿里巴巴 FY25Q4 的财报电话会纪要,财报解读请移步《 AI 续命前先放血,"不甘" 的阿里再拼一把? 》 一、财报核心信息回顾 | Alibaba quartery results wrap-up | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3Q24A | | | | | | | 4Q25E | Rmb 100mn | | | | | | | 1Q24A 2Q24A 4Q24A 1Q25A 2Q25A 3Q25A 4Q25A var. | | | | -0.6% | | | | 2365 | 2802 | 2365 | 2379 | Overall Total revenue | | | | | | | 2342 2248 2603 2219 2432 | | | | 13.9% | | | | 5.2% | 1.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% ...
网易:防御变进击?姜还是老的辣!
海豚投研· 2025-05-16 09:15
Core Viewpoint - NetEase's Q1 2025 earnings report exceeded conservative market expectations, primarily driven by effective cost management and strong performance in PC games, despite a decline in mobile game revenue [1][11]. Group 1: Game Performance - The growth in gaming revenue was largely attributed to PC games, with a significant contribution from Blizzard titles and the new game "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds," which generated over 400 million in revenue within 36 days of its launch [2][3]. - Mobile games experienced a 4% decline, which was better than the market's expectation of an 8% drop, indicating a gradual recovery [3][22]. - The discrepancy in mobile game performance may stem from the success of evergreen titles like "Identity V," which saw revenue growth due to content updates, and the inability of third-party platforms to track all revenue sources [3][25]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - NetEase reported total revenues of 288.3 billion CNY for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, with gross profit margins improving to 62.2% [9][19]. - Operating income from core businesses reached 76.2 billion CNY, reflecting a 26.04% increase year-on-year, while adjusted net profit was 85.1 billion CNY, up 25.01% [9][19]. - The company achieved a significant reduction in operating expenses, particularly in sales and marketing, which decreased by 33% year-on-year, contributing to improved profitability [6][41]. Group 3: Strategic Outlook - Despite the positive Q1 results, the outlook for the year remains cautious due to a lack of new mobile game releases, with only a few titles in the pipeline without confirmed launch dates [4][33]. - Upcoming potential hits include the open-world game "Infinite" expected by the end of the year and a life simulation game "Qilv" anticipated for next year [5][34]. - The company is focusing on leveraging its existing game portfolio and enhancing user engagement through content updates, which has proven effective in the current market environment [4][25]. Group 4: Shareholder Returns - NetEase's cash flow from operating activities was 12.1 billion CNY in Q1, a 26% increase year-on-year, with plans to distribute approximately 3.1 billion CNY in dividends, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 28% [7][50]. - The company has a share buyback plan of 5 billion USD over three years, with expectations to repurchase 3.1 billion USD within the next year, providing a defensive support for its stock price amid performance pressures [8][50].
腾讯(纪要):AI 优先用于高回报的广告和头部游戏
海豚投研· 2025-05-15 15:37
以下为腾讯 FY25 一季度的财报电话会纪要,财报解读请移步《 腾讯:狂投不含糊,股王已被 AI"香" 到了! 》 一、财报核心信息回顾 | Tencent (700.HK) Earnings Results | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Figures in RMB 100mn | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1Q24A | | | | | | | 2Q24A 3Q24A 1Q25A Consensus | 4Q24A | | | Actual vs Consensus | | Group Total revenues | | | | | | | 1595 1611 1672 | 1724 | 1800 | 1757 | 2.45% beat | | yoy | | | | | | | 6.3% 8.0% 8.1% | 11.1% | 12.9% | 10.2% | | | Gross profit GPM | | | ...
AI续命前先放血,“不甘”的阿里再拼一把?
海豚投研· 2025-05-15 15:37
Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's recent performance shows mixed results, with Taotian Group's strong growth offset by challenges in other segments, particularly in cloud services and international e-commerce [1][15][19]. Group 1: Taotian Group Performance - Taotian Group's revenue grew by 11.8%, exceeding market expectations of around 10%, driven by improved e-commerce conditions and increased service fees [1][25]. - Adjusted EBITA for Taotian was 418 billion, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase, outperforming the conservative market forecast of 2.1% [2][28]. - The overall revenue growth for Taotian was 8.7%, significantly better than the market's low expectation of 4.9% [30]. Group 2: Cloud Services - Alibaba Cloud's revenue reached 301 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 17.7%, aligning with market expectations but not exceeding them significantly [3][33]. - The adjusted EBITA for Alibaba Cloud was 24.2 billion, with a profit margin decline of 1.9 percentage points, which was worse than market predictions [4][34]. - The lower-than-expected capex of 240 billion may indicate a cautious outlook on future AI demand [4][34]. Group 3: International E-commerce - International e-commerce revenue grew by 22.3%, but this was a significant slowdown from previous quarters, missing the expected 27.4% growth [5][37]. - The adjusted EBITA loss for international e-commerce was 36 billion, slightly worse than the anticipated 34 billion loss, indicating ongoing challenges in this segment [5][37]. Group 4: Local Services - Local services revenue increased by 10.3%, but losses surged to 23.2 billion, far exceeding previous quarters' losses, raising concerns about future performance amid competitive pressures [6][42][43]. - The significant increase in losses occurred before the full impact of the ongoing delivery service competition, suggesting potential for further deterioration [6][43]. Group 5: Overall Financial Performance - Alibaba's overall revenue grew by 6.6%, slightly below expectations and reflecting a slowdown from the previous quarter [9][47]. - Adjusted EBITA for the group was 326 billion, consistent with expectations but not showing any standout performance [9][48]. - Marketing expenses reached 355 billion, a 26.5% increase year-on-year, indicating a continued investment strategy despite mixed results across segments [10][54].
京东(纪要):外卖 UE 尚难评估,回购均价 $37
海豚投研· 2025-05-14 14:19
以下为京东 25 年一季度的财报电话会纪要,财报解读请移步《 "国补" 撑门面,京东又能扬眉吐气了? 》 一、财报核心信息回顾 1. $京东-SW.HK 股东回报:今年截止财报发布日回购 8070 万份 A 类普通股,占比 2.8%,回购金额接近 15 亿美金。 2. 新业务:京东外卖属新业务板块,Q1 末起 规模化,当季财务影响小。业务凭借差异化模式获多方认可,用户获取 ROI 良好。 截至 Q2 初,在用户流量、留存 方面成果初现。 二、财报电话会详细内容 2.1 高管陈述核心信息 1. 整体业绩:2024 年 Q4 业务保持强劲势头,2025 年 Q1 延续增长,总收入同比增长 16%,增速超上季度 ,且优于同期实物商品零售与线上销售; 非 GAAP 净利 润同比增长 43% 至 128 亿元,净利率达 4.2% ,毛利率连续 12 个季度同比改善。 2. 品类表现中百货品类 预计全年表现良好。 3.用户增长和用户参与度:Q1 季度活跃客户数、购物频次双位数增长,部分业务 ARPU 值同增;优化售后、应用 AI 提效,未来深化协同促增长 。 4. 低价策略构建 3P 生态系统: 3. 现金流:自由现金流 ...
腾讯:狂投不含糊,股王已被AI“香”到了!
海豚投研· 2025-05-14 14:19
临近 520 ,海豚君为大家准备了一波现金红包福利,详细获取方式见文内。 时隔两月,腾讯于今日(北京时间5月14日)港股盘后发布了2025年一季度业绩。受益游戏、广告,以及触底回暖的支付环境,业绩超预期的亮眼。 不过Q1炸裂的业绩,游戏贡献不小。但从Q2开始,DNF手游的高基数影响也会开始施加压力,这意味着从大趋势上看,整体利润增速会放缓到一个新区间。因 此,AI能否给腾讯再次点火起飞的源动力,也是市场上多头资金最期待的看点。 上个月,海豚君从腾讯的资金配置出发,初步讨论了一下腾讯可能的AI战略路线(回顾《 腾讯:从抠门的回购谈起,超级AI是明晃晃的阳谋? 》),这次结合财 报,再来做一次小小的深挖。 先来过一下业绩: 1. 长青继续发力,游戏大超预期: Q1游戏增长24%,撇开预期,也是一个强悍的增长。除了《DNF手游》、《三角洲行动》的增量外,《王者荣耀》、《和平精 英》这两款古老的长青游戏,春节期间在内容更新和运营活动下,流水表现也非常不错。海外收入依然由《PUBG》手游、Supercell旗下经典游戏贡献高增长。 从递延收入看,环比增速高于往年正常水平,有望继续给到Q2一定支撑。 但Q2开 始,不可避 ...
腾讯音乐:增长“新”周期,是落入平庸还是稳稳的幸福?
海豚投研· 2025-05-13 13:20
Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music's Q1 2025 earnings report reflects a mixed performance amid a challenging competitive landscape, with a focus on long-term growth strategies and user engagement [1][11]. Membership Subscription: More Focused and Specialized - As of Q1, Tencent Music's paid penetration rate reached 22%, continuing to improve from the previous quarter, nearing 90% of its long-term video subscription target set three years ago [1]. - The increase in average revenue per user (ARPU) is attributed to a strategy targeting core heavy users and enhancing SVIP conversion rates, despite a general slowdown in subscription growth [2][4]. - The company is adjusting its volume and pricing strategies dynamically to maintain its leading market position [1]. Advertising and Digital Album Sales - Advertising revenue showed steady growth in Q1, supported by improved inventory management, while digital album sales remain volatile, heavily influenced by the release schedules of popular artists [7]. - The overall revenue from online music, including advertising and digital album sales, is expected to fluctuate based on market conditions and artist releases [7]. Financial Performance Overview - Total revenues for Q1 2025 were CNY 67.68 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 3.4%, but slightly beating consensus estimates by 1.15% [9]. - Gross profit for the same period was CNY 27.71 million, with a gross profit margin (GPM) of 40.9%, indicating a slight improvement from previous quarters [9]. - Non-IFRS net income was reported at CNY 18.12 million, exceeding expectations by 7.86% [9]. User Metrics and Trends - The number of paying users for online music reached approximately 11.35 million, with a net addition of 680,000 users in Q1 [9]. - Monthly ARPPU for online music was CNY 10.6, slightly above consensus estimates, indicating a positive trend in user monetization [9].