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零跑(纪要):新能源 “卷王” 如何能成功逆袭?
海豚投研· 2025-05-20 14:08
以下为 零跑汽车 FY25Q1 的财报电话会纪要,财报解读请移步《 零跑:靠实力硬卷,新能源乱世有"真香"! 》 一. 财报核心信息回顾 | 零跑汽车财报数据概览 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位:亿元 | 1073 | 2073 | 3073 | 4073 | 10724 | 2024 | 3024 | 40724 | 10745 | 1025 Gap | | | SIRY | 14.4 | 43.7 | 56.6 | 52.8 | 34.9 | 53.6 | 98.6 | 134.6 | 100.2 | 94.3 | 6% | | 同比 | -28% | 41% | 32% | 75% | 142% | 23% | 74% | 155% | 187% | 170% | | | 毛利润 | -1.1 | -2.3 | 0.7 | 3.5 | -0.5 | 1.5 | 8.1 | 17.8 | 14.9 | 10.0 | | | 毛利率 | ...
哔哩哔哩:游戏撑场、用户回流,小破站要回血?
海豚投研· 2025-05-20 14:08
北京时间5月20日港股盘后,B站发布2025年一季度财报,实际表现小超预期,惊喜主要在利润、用户指标上。具体来看: 1. 盈利继续小踏步改善: 靠着超预期的游戏收入,以及略微克制的经营费用,B站 抗 住了广告带来的季节性波动,力保正盈利。 2. 用户增长重回昔日: 自从管理层提出注重DAU指标后,市场对B站流量扩张的预期也基本没多少了。因此这次一个季度净增了2800万,着实有点重回昔日荣光 的意味。 不过,海豚君猜测用户增长应该与春晚转播合作的短期效应带来,包括春晚开设官方账号,播放历年春晚精彩节目的贡献。后续能否完全留住用户,还得继续观 察,Q1粘性略有下滑。 结合QM数据4月的数据,流量暂时稳住了,总时长已经连续两个月恢复同比增长。 2. 游戏或有最大预期差: 渠道监测《三谋》年初以来流水表现不佳,因此财报前市场对游戏收入偏向保守,也对接下来的高基数压力加剧担忧。 但预期差也在这里。实际一季度游戏收入并不差,同比增速76%,和上季度增速差不多。至少从季节性趋势来看,《三谋》的流水可能没有像市场想的那样恶化太 多。 3. 广告增长勉强达标: 一季度广告增长符合指引的20%,但海豚君觉得这个表现很一般。如果考 ...
唯品会:再度跌向谷底,这次还有回购托底吗?
海豚投研· 2025-05-20 14:08
北京时间 5 月 20 日美股盘前,$唯品会.US 发榜了 2025 年 1 季度财报,概括来看属于预期内的差,收入和利润双双负增长,活跃用户也继续流失。但对此市场也 早有预期,各项指标大体都和预期接近,具体来看: 1、 整体业绩上 ,本季度唯品会总营收同比负增长 5%,处于先前指引区间的下限 (-5%~0%),但市场对此有充分预期, 彭博卖方预期中值为负增长 4.7% 。并 不算预期外 "爆雷"。 2、核心经营指标上, 本季度 唯品会 GMV 同比近乎持平, 相比 市场预期的负增长 0.9%, 算是略超预期。守住核心业务指标没有下滑,可谓是本次业绩的 "出 彩" 之处了。 具体来看 ,活跃用户数和订单量本季度还是下滑的, 前者同比减少了 180 万人(约 4%),后者也下滑了 6%。但 边缘用户流失的同时,核心用户进一步提纯; 剩下的忠诚用户复购频次和客单价更高,从而 在量跌的同时,通过价涨 (客单价同比上升约 7%),守住了 GMV 指标同比持平。 不过,从收入和 GMV 之间的增速差依旧存在且并未缩窄,也可见更高的 SVIP 占比带来的更高退货率的问题也未解决。 3、 由于营收规模已持续数个季度的下滑( ...
携程:又是增收不增利,优等生也遇到难题了?
海豚投研· 2025-05-20 14:08
Core Viewpoint - Overall, Ctrip's net revenue for the quarter was 13.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16%, aligning closely with market expectations. Adjusted operating profit was 4.04 billion RMB, showing a modest year-on-year growth of 7%, slightly exceeding expectations by nearly 300 million RMB [1][7]. Revenue and Business Performance - The booking volume for inbound travel increased by over 100% year-on-year, while outbound travel bookings exceeded 120% of the same period in 2019, indicating stable demand for both inbound and outbound travel without significant strengthening [1][2]. - Pure overseas bookings grew by 60% year-on-year, a slight decrease from the previous quarter's 70%, but still reflecting a strong growth rate [2]. - Hotel business revenue increased by nearly 23% year-on-year, outperforming market expectations by 1.4 percentage points, although domestic hotel revenue growth may slow to 10%-15% due to a slight decline in average spending [2][3]. - Ticketing business revenue growth fell to 8.4%, returning to single-digit growth, primarily due to a 10%-15% year-on-year decline in domestic and outbound ticket prices [3]. Smaller Business Segments - Revenue from packaged tours dropped to 91% of the same period in 2019, indicating weak performance attributed to travelers' preference for independent travel and competition from platforms like Meituan and Douyin [3]. - Advertising revenue grew by 33%, showing strong momentum, with expectations for continued growth driven by increased ad penetration and community features on Ctrip's platform [3]. Cost and Profitability - Ctrip's gross margin for the quarter was 80.4%, slightly below the expected 81% and showing a year-on-year contraction, influenced by a higher proportion of lower-margin overseas business and declining hotel and ticket prices [5]. - Marketing expenses increased by 30% year-on-year to 3 billion RMB, exceeding revenue growth but still lower than the market expectation of 3.3 billion RMB, resulting in an additional profit of 300 million RMB [4][5]. - Research and development expenses and administrative expenses grew by 14.2% and 11.7% year-on-year, respectively, both below revenue growth rates, indicating no significant expansion [5]. Overall Financial Performance - Despite a 16% increase in total revenue, operating profit only grew by 7% year-on-year due to rising costs and a decrease in gross margin, leading to a noticeable contraction in operating profit margin [6][7]. - The company’s performance remains stable, with revenue growth in line with expectations, while profit growth is modest, reflecting a cautious outlook for the year [7].
“大而美”=“大赤字”,美股又要被美债连累了?
海豚投研· 2025-05-19 15:49
大家好,我是海豚君! 在上周的策略周报中,海豚君提到关税问题告一段落后,接下来市场的关注点会回到特朗普第二把火减税和产业政策上,"但这里的致命 BUG 是,减税和产业刺 激本质是要财政兜底的。" 而接下来的短期交易,是否会围绕这个 "BUG" 展开,从而影响到整个大类资产的估值预期,详细来看一下: 一、川普的《美丽大法案》=《大赤字》法案? 这个新法案《 美丽大法案 》("Big, Beautiful Bill"),主要延续了 2017 年通过的减税法案,涉及了消费和加班税收抵免、儿童税收抵免等,同时也小幅收紧了 Medicaid 的发放要求,收紧食品券的发放标准等等。 但整体上,它仍然是一个会大幅拉高赤字的减税法案,因此也被市场戏称为《大赤字》法案。 按照美国联邦预算委员会的估算,它会让美国 2027 财年(截止 2027 年 9 月)的财政赤字, 会从原来的 1.7 万亿拉高到 2.3 万亿美金,相当于非利息性赤字接近翻 番。 而且节奏上,这个法案下的减税部分是前置的,但是省钱的部分是后置的,从而导致以 10 年为期,法案带来的前半程的赤字较高,26 和 27 财年尤其明显,走到 后半程才能慢慢收缩。 而 ...
零跑:靠实力硬卷,新能源乱世有“真香”!
海豚投研· 2025-05-19 15:49
零跑汽车(9863.HK) 于北京时间5月19日港股盘后发布了2025年第一季度财报。此次业绩仍然表现非常不错,已经连续三个季度beat市场预期。具体来看: 1. 毛利率在一季度销量淡季还能持续环比提升,达到了历史新高: 一般新能源车企由于一季度销量淡季,汽车毛利率很难会呈现环比改善趋势,由于需要对老款 车型进行降价促销(零跑也不例外),所以市场其实对一季度零跑的毛利率都是预测下滑的趋势,而海豚君看到相对比较乐观的大行预期也是预计一季度毛利率 环比下滑1.3个百分点至12%(BBG预期下滑至10.6%)。 但零跑此次非常令人意外的是,相比去年销量高峰期,零跑整体毛利率竟然还呈现了继续环比改善的趋势,达到了历史新高的15%。 2. 战略合作收入是贡献收入和毛利超预期的主因: 一季度零跑大约确认了战略合作的技术服务费3亿,毛利2亿左右,所以也是带动整体收入和毛利超预期的主 因。 3. 去除战略合作影响来看,实际表现仍然超预期: 去除掉这笔合作带来的收入和毛利贡献,零跑一季度毛利率大概在13.3%左右,和上季度保持基本持平,而卖车 单价也基本稳住,在一季度销量环比下滑28%的情况下,这样的实际表现仍然也是要超市场预 ...
Sea(纪要):没法给游戏流水全年指引,电商利润率目标GMV的2%~3%
海豚投研· 2025-05-17 09:38
Financial Performance Overview - Sea's total revenue for Q1 FY25 was $4,841 million, showing a slight decrease of 1.1% compared to the previous quarter, but a year-over-year increase of 31% [1] - Digital entertainment revenue decreased by 7% quarter-over-quarter, but showed a year-over-year increase of 17% [1] - E-commerce revenue decreased by 3% quarter-over-quarter, with a year-over-year growth of 33% [1] - Digital financial services (DFS) revenue increased by 6.6% quarter-over-quarter, with a year-over-year growth of 48% [1] - Gross profits for Q1 FY25 were $2,236 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 37% [1] - Operating profits reached $456 million, a significant increase of 76% compared to the previous quarter [1] Digital Financial Services - The digital financial services brand was rebranded from SeaMoney to "Money," becoming a leading unsecured consumer credit service in Southeast Asia and expanding into Brazil [2] - Over 4 million new borrowers were added in Q1, with active users exceeding 28 million, a year-over-year increase of over 50% [2] E-commerce Performance - Advertising revenue in the e-commerce segment grew by over 50% year-over-year, with average monthly active buyers increasing by over 15% [3] - The company launched instant delivery services in key cities in Indonesia and introduced a paid membership program that attracted over 1 million subscribers by the end of March [3] - Sea aims for a 20% growth in GMV for the year, driven by the potential in the Brazilian market [3] Digital Entertainment Strategy - The collaboration between "Free Fire" and "Naruto" launched in January 2025, marking the largest anime IP collaboration to date, which successfully attracted new users and re-engaged lapsed players [4][5] - The game "Free Fire" achieved daily active users close to peak levels seen during the pandemic [5] - The company is expanding its game portfolio, with the release of "Delta Force Mobile" in April 2025, which has already garnered over 10 million downloads [5]
520宠粉“钞”福利|现金红包大派送!
海豚投研· 2025-05-17 09:38
520 宠粉"钞"福利 任意加一位小助手均可入群 本活动最终解释权归海豚投研所有 抢。 红包无套路,希望更多粉丝加入我们的交流社群, 入群后,大家不仅可以第一时间看到海豚君的研究内 容,还能与群友在感兴趣的内容海阔天空,分享想法。 还未入群的用户,添加下方小助手微信即可申请入群。 海豚君不玩虚的,只送现金! 520将近,海豚君再次为长期关注长桥海豚公众号的朋友们准备了一波现金红包福利: 5月19日-5月20日下午17:00,新群友宠粉季,海豚新用户社群将 掉落现金红包雨 ,新入群用户均拼手速 可 ...
小腾讯 Sea:蹭上 “火影” 大 IP,炸裂业绩能持久吗?
海豚投研· 2025-05-17 09:38
Group 1 - The core highlight of Sea's Q1 2025 earnings report is the significant growth in the gaming segment, with revenue increasing nearly 51% year-over-year, far exceeding the market expectation of around 11% [1][16][21] - The collaboration with the popular IP "Naruto" has greatly boosted the daily active users of Free Fire, bringing the active user count close to pre-pandemic levels [1][21] - The number of paying users reached 65 million, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 53 million, with the paying user ratio increasing from 8.2% to 9.8% [1][21][24] Group 2 - The adjusted EBITDA for the gaming segment surged by 56.8%, aligning with the revenue growth, and the EBITDA margin improved from 57.1% to 59.1% year-over-year [2][42] - However, due to a significant portion of new revenue being recorded as deferred income, the GAAP revenue and operating profit fell short of expectations [2][6] - The Shopee e-commerce segment reported a GMV of $28.6 billion, showing a year-over-year growth of 21.2%, but this was below the market expectation of 23% [2][28] Group 3 - The e-commerce segment's revenue growth was 28%, a notable decline from the previous quarter's 41%, and it also missed the market expectation of 33% [3][32] - The decline in revenue was attributed to a decrease in the monetization rate of the 3P marketplace model, which fell by nearly 0.3 percentage points [3][32] - Despite the growth challenges, the e-commerce segment achieved approximately $200 million in operating profit, significantly exceeding the market expectation of $86 million [3][42] Group 4 - The financial segment, recently rebranded as Monee, reported revenue of approximately $790 million, a year-over-year increase of 58%, surpassing the market expectation of 48% [3][38] - The total loan balance reached $5.8 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 76%, while the overdue loan ratio decreased to 1.1% [4][39] - However, the provision for bad debts increased significantly, indicating rising credit risk as the business expands into new markets [4][39] Group 5 - Overall, Sea's total revenue grew by 30% year-over-year, but this was below the market expectation of 31% [6][45] - The company reported a gross profit of $2.24 billion, with a gross margin improving from 44.6% to 46.2%, exceeding market expectations [5][48] - Operating expenses increased by 19%, primarily driven by a significant rise in marketing expenses related to the financial segment [5][51]
贝壳(纪要):如果 3 季度楼市变差,可能有更多支持政策
海豚投研· 2025-05-17 09:29
Financial Report Key Information Review - Total revenue for Q2 2023 was RMB 20,204 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 21% [1] - Existing home revenue was RMB 6,050 million, up 49% year-over-year [1] - New home revenue reached RMB 8,404 million, a 42% year-over-year increase [1] - Gross profit was RMB 6,350 million, with a gross profit margin (GPM) of 25.5% [1] - Operating profit was RMB 2,978 million, showing a significant increase of 215.3% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit was RMB 3,561 million, with a net profit margin (NPM) of 21.6% [1] Management's Strategic Focus - The company is enhancing its home decoration business by improving product design and project management capabilities, with project managers achieving a 156% year-over-year increase in average monthly orders [2] - In the rental service sector, the company manages over 500,000 rental properties, focusing on improving default management and renewal rates [2] AI Technology Application - An AI-driven housing search system has been launched in two cities, capturing 40% of homepage traffic [2] - Over 200,000 agents are using tools that allow them to manage more than 2.5 million clients, improving efficiency metrics [2] - An AI property maintenance system has been adopted by 110,000 agents, servicing 400,000 homeowners [2] Market Outlook - The second-hand housing market showed strong recovery in Q1, with a 16% year-over-year increase in transactions, driven by policy effects that lowered purchasing thresholds [3] - In major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, second-hand home prices remained stable or slightly increased [4] - The new home market was stable, with a slight year-over-year decline of 0.4% in sales [4] - The company anticipates a typical seasonal slowdown in Q2, but expects a slight year-over-year increase in second-hand transaction volume [5] - The impact of international trade tensions on the real estate market is being closely monitored, with a focus on maintaining stable homeowner sentiment [5]