Core Viewpoint - Dell has successfully transitioned from a PC manufacturer to a comprehensive IT service provider, capitalizing on various technological waves over the past three decades, with annual revenue nearing $100 billion, particularly benefiting from the surge in AI demand [1][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Dell started as a computer manufacturer and evolved into a full-stack IT service provider after entering the server and storage markets in the 2000s [5][12]. - The company has undergone four significant phases: direct sales model, internet empowerment, crisis period, and rebirth as a full-stack service provider [5][12]. - Dell's direct sales model eliminated intermediaries, reducing costs by 15%-20% and improving delivery speed to 72 hours [6][10]. Group 2: Market Position and Competitiveness - Dell's server business is currently a focal point, with AI servers expected to account for approximately 20% of its Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) business [16][19]. - In the server market, Dell ranks first among brand manufacturers but holds only a 7.2% market share, while ODM manufacturers dominate with a combined 47.3% share [23][27]. - Dell's profitability in the ISG business is relatively modest, maintaining an operating margin of 10-20%, compared to NVIDIA's 60% [21][29]. Group 3: AI Server Market Potential - The global server market is projected to grow from $306.7 billion in 2024 to $608 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.5%, driven largely by AI server demand [34][38]. - AI servers are expected to increase their market share from 14% to 25% by 2029, with a projected market size of $551.8 billion [38][39]. - Dell's AI server revenue is anticipated to reach nearly $10 billion in 2024, benefiting from its deep partnership with NVIDIA [41][42].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growth potential and investment value of the tea brand Guming, emphasizing its efficient store operations and management as the foundation for expansion, while also analyzing its current market position after a significant stock price increase [1][13]. Group 1: Store Operations and Management - Guming's franchise selection process is rigorous, requiring franchisees to operate stores actively, unlike competitors who attract franchisees with lower fees and less operational scrutiny [2]. - The company employs a supply chain processing model that includes pre-processing of fresh ingredients at regional centers, ensuring consistency and efficiency in product preparation [2]. - Guming has a high supervisor-to-store ratio, with 660 supervisors covering an average of 15 stores each, allowing for close monitoring and support of franchise operations [3]. Group 2: Expansion Potential - As of the end of 2024, Guming has opened 9,914 stores, indicating significant room for growth through regional densification and expansion into unentered provinces [6]. - The company faces challenges in northern and western provinces due to weaker supply chain infrastructure and lower brand recognition compared to competitors [7][8]. - Guming's potential for store openings is estimated to be between 21,000 to 22,000 stores, representing a doubling of its current footprint [12]. Group 3: Investment Value Assessment - Guming's growth strategy focuses on steady expansion, with an expected annual opening of 1,500 to 2,000 stores, primarily in lower-tier cities [13]. - Despite recent challenges, including a slight decline in same-store revenue, Guming is projected to recover and achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21% in revenue from 2025 to 2029 [14][17]. - The company's profitability is expected to improve, with a projected CAGR of 25% in profits, driven by enhanced operational efficiency and reduced marketing costs over time [17]. Group 4: Competitive Positioning - Guming is positioned favorably compared to competitors in the mid-range price segment, leveraging its supply chain and operational capabilities to maintain a competitive edge [23]. - The company is expected to benefit from entering the coffee market, which will provide additional revenue streams without the need for separate store operations [24]. - Overall, Guming's strategy of cautious expansion and focus on operational excellence positions it well for future growth in a competitive landscape [25].

Group 1 - The article discusses the likelihood of a TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) scenario regarding tariff negotiations, suggesting that the probability of further tariff escalation is low and that a delay in negotiations is more likely [1][2][5] - It highlights the current market's optimistic pricing, which may not align with the underlying economic fundamentals, particularly focusing on the U.S. economy's performance in the upcoming year [1][6] - The article emphasizes the importance of employment data and its implications for interest rate expectations, noting that the recent job growth figures may not be as strong as they appear due to significant contributions from government employment [6][7][9] Group 2 - The article outlines the current U.S. employment situation, indicating that while the June non-farm payrolls showed a gain of 147,000 jobs, a substantial portion came from government sectors, raising concerns about the sustainability of this growth [7][9][11] - It discusses the potential economic implications of Trump's policies, suggesting that they may lead to increased fiscal deficits and inflationary pressures, particularly with the anticipated combination of fiscal stimulus and monetary easing [16][17][18] - The article presents an investment strategy in light of the expected economic conditions, recommending a diversified approach with a focus on strong equities, gold, and virtual assets while being cautious of potential market corrections [20][21][28]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant divergence between the 3-month HIBOR rate and the Federal Funds rate, highlighting a liquidity paradox in Hong Kong where low interest rates do not correlate with rising stock prices [1][3][5]. Group 1: Liquidity and Stock Market Relationship - After May 20, the inversion of the HIBOR rate exceeded 250 basis points, indicating a liquidity surplus in Hong Kong [3]. - Despite low funding rates, the Hang Seng Index only increased by 1.64%, suggesting that liquidity does not necessarily lead to stock market gains [5]. - The relationship between funding rates and stock prices is complex; low rates can lead to deposit outflows, which may suppress risk asset prices [9][12]. Group 2: Capital Flows and Currency Impact - The outflow of deposits in Hong Kong, due to low interest rates, does not lead to a decline in stock prices but results in stagnation [12]. - When capital flows out of Hong Kong, it converts local currency deposits into USD, leading to increased excess reserves and liquidity in the interbank market [14]. - The relationship between exchange rates and stock prices is direct: currency appreciation typically supports stock market gains, while depreciation can lead to declines [16]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and External Influences - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) injected significant liquidity into the market, with a total of 1,166 million HKD released over four days [18]. - The 3-month HIBOR rate fell to 1.32% due to both the HKMA's liquidity injections and foreign capital outflows [22][23]. - The HKMA's actions reflect a strategy to manage foreign capital flows, with the potential to adjust liquidity based on market conditions [25][27]. Group 4: Theoretical Implications and Market Behavior - The article suggests that the HKMA's large liquidity injections are not necessarily positive for the market, as they may be aimed at curbing excessive foreign capital inflows [32]. - The divergence between theoretical expectations and actual market behavior indicates a need for investors to trust market signals over theoretical models [32]. - The 3-month HIBOR rate is not a reliable indicator of Hong Kong stock market liquidity due to the complexities of capital flows [35].

继宁德时代2025年5月20日在港股上市后，发行价为263港元/股，而截至周五收盘，宁王的股价相比发行价涨幅已达36%，而宁王港股相比A股溢价已达22.4%。 为何已经是"牛夫人"的宁王，到了港股就成了"小甜甜"？宁王真会迎来价值重估吗？它的基本面到底有什么变化？ 本篇分析先从基本面来看一下业务预期情况，再说资金面的情况。先从国内与海外（尤其是欧洲）动力电池市场的边际变化进行分析。 海豚君过往对宁德时代还 有许多深度跟踪文章，感兴趣的朋友可以扫描下方二维码加入交流群，查看过往研报的获取方式，也可在群内和更多朋友共同探讨投资观点。 一、国内动力： a. 供需本身无变化，但反内卷下盈利预期变好 从国内动力电池行业整体来看，目前国内动力电池的景气度处于还不错的水平（动力电池行业销量/产量基本维持在70%+以上），而在明年要开始加收新能源购置 税，再叠加国补政策是否延续的不确定性，2025年预计下半年终端需求侧有所保障，也会带动中游电池行业的需求侧景气度。 同时叠加政策层面"反内卷"下，以及锂电行业整体层面的控产下，预计整体2025年供需关系相对平衡，动力电池行业销量/产量比例可能会持续维持在70%+水平。 b. 宁 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the competitive landscape of the tea beverage industry, focusing on four major players: Gu Ming, Cha Bai Dao, Hu Shang A Yi, and Mi Xue Bing Cheng, particularly examining their business models and supply chain strategies to identify potential winners in the market [1][4]. Group 1: Business Model Analysis - Gu Ming, Cha Bai Dao, and Hu Shang A Yi were initially regional brands that expanded nationally through a franchise model, with nearly 10,000 stores each by 2024 [4][5]. - The core product offerings of these brands are similar, focusing on fresh milk tea and fresh fruit tea, with prices generally between 10-20 yuan [4][5]. - All four brands utilize a franchise model, generating revenue primarily through franchise fees and sales of ingredients and materials to franchisees [7][11]. Group 2: Supply Chain Comparison - Mi Xue Bing Cheng has the strongest supply chain, leveraging direct sourcing and self-production to minimize costs, while Gu Ming follows closely with a robust supply chain and its own cold chain logistics [13][15]. - Cha Bai Dao and Hu Shang A Yi have weaker supply chains, relying heavily on third-party logistics, which limits their cost control and can lead to quality inconsistencies [16][18]. - The supply chain capabilities significantly impact the brands' resilience during market pressures, with Mi Xue Bing Cheng and Gu Ming showing stability, while Cha Bai Dao and Hu Shang A Yi face declining same-store sales [16][18]. Group 3: Expansion Strategies - Gu Ming employs a unique regional densification strategy, focusing on achieving critical scale within provinces before expanding to neighboring areas, contrasting with the national spread of its competitors [19][20]. - This strategy allows Gu Ming to maintain a high density of stores in key provinces, enhancing supply chain efficiency and reducing logistics costs [24][25]. - Gu Ming's approach has resulted in a significant market share in its initial provinces, with over 25% in Zhejiang, Fujian, and Jiangxi, and a dominant position in the mid-range price segment [28][29]. Group 4: Product Development Strategy - Gu Ming adopts a fast-fashion approach to product development, quickly introducing and iterating on popular items while maintaining a high research and development investment [30][31]. - This strategy allows Gu Ming to respond effectively to changing consumer preferences, achieving a high acceptance rate for new products and a quarterly repurchase rate of 53% [31][32]. - The competitive advantage lies in the ability to provide high-quality products at competitive prices, driven by an efficient supply chain [32][36].

3. 稳定币存在刚需场景 （跨境支付等），但也并非所有现实场景都能长驱直入。监管下场有私心，美国想增加短债买家，欧、中想抵抗美元霸权。 加密货币系列前两篇（《Coinbase业务逻辑》、《稳定币讨论》）( 已发布在长桥App「动态-投研」板块，也可添加文末小助手微信入群获取 )，海豚君介绍了 Coinbase的商业模式，稳定币市场规模以及USDC的稀缺性问题。为防大家信息迷失，我们先来拎一下重点： 1. Coinbase目前主要靠 加密货币交易费创收，散户收费 为主。但竞争加剧下（监管加入有利有弊，出清低合规Crypto交易平台，但刺激传统经纪商进入市场），因 此降费是大趋势。 未来增长要靠非交易收入——a订阅类（托管、质押、借贷、稳定币等）; b. 数据、云等链上基础服务类。这一众收入来源中，稳定币是最具想象力的业务。 2. 稳定币的监管认可打开了加密货币的价值上限 ，也给了Coinbase更大的增长想象力；必须先分析稳定币前景，才能算清Coinbase的稳态价值。 在估值之前，我们有必要先来回溯下Coinbase和Circle之间的合作协议变化。 从2018年至今，可以分为三个时期，简单概括为： 2018 ...

上篇 讲Coinbase，海豚君说到Coinbase的价值能否打开非常依赖稳定币。 一方面，稳定币有利于Coinbase生态内的交易、托管、质押等基础业务，最关键是给Coinbase拓展了更多的业务场景，通过商业支付、资产代币化投资等等，打开 增长的想象空间。 另一方面，稳定币自带收入，发行稳定币的储备资产主要是美债，自带不低的利息收益。而Coinbase目前按照协议，只要Circle自身平台的USDC占比没有迅速升 高，那么一般情况下可以吃到一半以上的利息分成。 因此，本篇就详细讨论下稳定币背后的爆炒逻辑，下篇以Coinbase和Circle的估值收尾。 以下为正文 一、是市梦率泡沫还是小瞧了潜在空间？ Circle IPO估值68亿美元，上市后不足一个月，最高翻到过10倍，短期PE、PS都涨到了天上，似乎需要抬出"市梦率估值"来解释了。（关于稳定币的基本概念，海 豚君做过总结已发布在 长桥App ， 本篇不再赘述，感兴趣的朋友可扫描下方二维码添加小助手微信 入群获取 ；还可在群内和更多朋友共同探讨投资观点。 ） 但要说资金是无厘头瞎炒，倒也不至于。 "赛道想象力大+稀缺" ，这两个看点，足以让资金选择在当 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant growth of the cryptocurrency market, which has reached a market capitalization of $3.3 trillion, equivalent to 3% of global GDP, driven by factors such as interest rate cuts, Bitcoin's halving cycle, and favorable regulatory conditions under the Trump administration [1][3]. Group 1: Cryptocurrency Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market has increased nearly threefold since the beginning of 2023, with Bitcoin's price rising from under $30,000 to over $100,000 [1]. - The current market capitalization of $3.3 trillion positions the cryptocurrency market as comparable to a mid-level developed country's economy, surpassing France and ranking as the third-largest company globally, ahead of Apple [1]. Group 2: Coinbase's Business Model - Coinbase functions as a cryptocurrency exchange, providing essential trading services such as pricing, matching, and settlement, while also taking on the role of a broker by offering direct services to investors [4][5]. - The company is expanding its business model to include payment services and is applying for a stock token trading platform, aiming to create a comprehensive financial ecosystem on the blockchain [5][8]. Group 3: Revenue Sources and Profitability - Coinbase's revenue is primarily derived from transaction income, which accounts for 50% of total revenue, while subscription income and other sources provide stability [11][13]. - The company's profitability fluctuates due to market volatility, with profit margins typically ranging from 25% to 65%, indicating potential for higher profitability as the market matures [8][11]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape and Regulatory Environment - Coinbase's compliance and security advantages position it favorably against competitors, especially as regulatory clarity improves, which may eliminate smaller competitors [8][31]. - The regulatory landscape is evolving, with potential legislation favoring cryptocurrency, which could enhance Coinbase's market position and profitability [32][34]. Group 5: Future Growth Opportunities - The article highlights the importance of expanding non-transaction revenue streams, such as custody, staking, and stablecoin services, to mitigate reliance on transaction fees [40][42]. - Coinbase's unique position in the stablecoin market, particularly with USDC, is seen as a critical growth driver, although potential conflicts with partners like Circle could impact future revenue sharing [49][51].

大家好，我是海豚君！ 上周策略周报 中，海豚君刚说了鲍威尔不当救星，美股短期向上压力比较大，结果市场当前的主要矛盾点——鲍威尔转眼就在国会听证会上松了口，结果全球股 市上周都在涨。 今年开年，随着美国例外主义信念的破除，有些人喊出了"一鲸落，万物生"——美国一个市场回落，美元回落过程中，非美资金各回各家，带动其他市场资产纷纷 回升。但上半年结束，虽然美股不再一枝独秀，但显然美股这一鲸也没有落下，而是又走出了新高。 而接下来的问题是，现在美国例外主义不再，市场也已经定价了降息，还有什么是让美股进一步上涨的？ 一、降息 or 不降息？当下市场的关键矛盾 美国例外主义不再、关税谈判利好定价充分，美债发售距离不远的情况下，经济基本面已经变得至关重要，而回归基本面的一个核心矛盾点，已经非常突出—— 美联储到底降不降息。为什么说这个问题很重要？ 特朗普政府不搞拜登经济学那套政府上杠杆、大干快上搞项目的经济增路数。从结果上来看： a. 他上任之后的2025年一季度就终结了联邦政府连续七个季度加杠杆的操作，一季度美国联邦政府的杠杆终于降下来了; b. 拜登经济学下，靠产业刺激法案出现的制造业建造支出（制造业产能建设）也达峰， ...