Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of recent geopolitical events, particularly involving Trump and the U.S.-China trade negotiations, on the U.S. stock market and outlines potential investment strategies moving forward [1][3]. Group 1: U.S.-China Relations and Market Impact - The U.S. stock market has seen stagnant returns since 2025, primarily due to the unrealistic valuations set before Trump's presidency being adjusted through EPS [3]. - The ongoing tariff negotiations have shifted from aggressive stances to more pragmatic approaches, with tariffs becoming less impactful on market dynamics [4]. - The recent U.S.-China economic discussions in the UK may provide short-term market boosts, especially regarding the potential removal of the 20% tariff on fentanyl [4][5]. Group 2: Domestic Economic Policies and Fiscal Challenges - Trump's domestic reforms have faced significant challenges, with the failure to effectively alter the balance of power within the U.S. government being a notable issue [5][6]. - The "Beautiful America" plan is expected to pass, but its implementation raises questions about fiscal requirements and potential impacts on capital markets [6]. - The U.S. Treasury's TGA account has seen a decline, indicating an urgent need for fiscal financing as it dropped below $400 billion, far from the necessary $800 billion baseline [7][8]. Group 3: Debt Ceiling and Market Reactions - The debt ceiling issue is projected to resurface in 2025, with critical deadlines approaching in July and August, which could lead to significant market volatility [10]. - Historical patterns suggest that budget adjustment bills typically involve raising the debt ceiling, which could lead to increased bond yields and market reactions [10][12]. - The current economic data presents a mixed picture, with soft indicators suggesting a recession while hard data remains robust, complicating the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [16]. Group 4: Investment Strategy and Portfolio Performance - The article suggests that the U.S. stock market may experience a correction following a period of bond issuance, particularly if the debt ceiling is raised without a corresponding interest rate cut [20]. - The Alpha Dolphin virtual portfolio has achieved an absolute return of 88% since its inception, outperforming the MSCI China index by the same margin [21]. - Recent stock performance in the portfolio has been influenced by the resumption of U.S.-China trade talks and the popularity of certain consumer brands, such as Pop Mart [23]. Group 5: Individual Stock Contributions - Pop Mart's stock rose by 11.1% due to strong product cycles and improved supply chain capabilities [24]. - TSMC's stock increased by 6.1%, maintaining a growth outlook despite tariff uncertainties [24]. - Tesla's stock saw a significant decline of 14.8% amid concerns over regulatory impacts from the ongoing conflict between Musk and Trump [24]. Group 6: Asset Allocation - The Alpha Dolphin portfolio is diversified, with a 52:48 ratio between equity assets and defensive assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries [25].

以下文章来源于Web3小律 ，作者Will 阿望 Web3小律 . On Chain is New Online｜律师 & Web3 投研｜深度思考：Fintech、Web3 支付、稳定币、代币化 RWA、监管合规、DeSci。 文章来源于：Web3小律 稳定币是否 能够 重塑全球金融 格局 已不再是 一个 YES / NO 的 问题，而是 " 如何 " 重塑 HOW 的问题 。 早期，稳定币的增长以总供应量 （ Supply ） 来衡量 ， 关键挑战在于 背后的 信任：哪些发行方可信、合规且具备扩容能力 。 相信随着美国 Genius 法案的提 出， 这个问题 马上能够得到解决 。 随着发行 的标准化 ， 稳定币 市场 进入下一个阶段 ——从发行转向 分销 （ from Mint to Distribution ） 。 发行方获得惊人利润的日子屈指可数 ——分销方开始意识到自己的杠杆作用，并获得应有的价值份额。 这个在 Circle 的招股说明书中已经很好地给出了答案。 鉴于这种转变， 我们应该首先 了解哪些应用程序、协议和平台正在实现真正的增长变得越来越重要 ， 尤其是对于那些在加密市场已经相对成熟的链上 ...

Lululemon于北京时间 2025 年 6 月 6 日上午美股盘后发布了 2025 年第一季度财报（截止 2025 年 3 月）。 一句话利润崩得太快，估值杀得太慢，出现海豚君跟踪中免中出现的问题——股价一直掉，但估值越杀越贵。具体来看核心信息： 1、利润端不及市场预期。 一季度 Lululemon 实现营收 23.7 亿美元，同比增长 7.3%，和市场预期基本一致，也落在了公司上季度的指引上限， 属于预期内的低增 速 。 但由于行业竞争加剧，以及拓展海外市场的需要，公司主动加大了费用投放，虽然毛利符合预期， 但最终净利率回落至 13.3%，处于近 3 年来最低水平。 2、高增的国际市场降速。 分地区看 ， 作为 Lululemon 的大本营市场，北美地区同比增长 3.2%，趋势上和 24 年增速基本持平，再结合电话会信息， 一季度客单 价有所提升，说明销量下滑是北美地区增速放缓的主要原因。 中国地区同比增长 19%，趋势上较前两年 35% 以上的高增速明显放缓，海豚君推测和中国市场竞争加剧（ 北美地区 Lululemon 第一大竞争对手 Alo Yoga 入华， 和公司客群重合度极高 ）以及二线及以下的 ...

一、财报核心信息回顾 | | | | | | | | Lululemon 1Q25Financial Performance | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (in US$100 million) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Calendar Year | | 4Q22A | 1Q23A | 2Q23A | 3Q23A | 4Q23A | 1Q24A | 2Q24A | 3Q24A | 4Q24A | 1Q25A | Consensus | A vs Cons | | Overview | Total Revenue | 27.7 | 20.0 | 22.1 | 22.0 | 32.1 | 22.1 | 23.7 | 24.0 | 36.1 | 23.7 | 23.6 | 0.5% | | | VOV | 30.2% | 24.0% | 18.2% | 18.7% | 15.6% | 10.4% | 7.3% ...

1.整体业绩 ： 博通 (AVGO.O) 本季度实现 150 亿美元，同比增长 20%，符合市场预期（149.5 亿美元） ，同比增长主要来自于 AI 业务的增长和 VMware 的并表整 合 。 公司本季度毛利率 68%，整合毛利率更高的 VMware 业务带动公司整体毛利率的逐步提升。 2.半导体业务 ： 本季度实现 84 亿美元，环比增长 2 亿美元 ，其中 AI 业务贡献了主要增量。具体来看： $博通.US 北京时间 6 月 6 日凌晨，美股盘后发布 2025 财年第二季度财报（截至 2025 年 4 月）： ①AI 业务：44 亿美元，环比增长 3 亿美元，符合市场预期 。 AI 业务的环比增长放缓，主要是受大客户谷歌 TPU 产品代际切换的影响。而随着 TPUv6 量产增 加，AI 业务有望在下半年增长加快，公司预期下季度 AI 业务收入 51 亿美元，环增提升至 7 亿美元 。 ②非 AI 业务：40 亿美元，略有下滑 。从各下游来看，虽然企业存储、宽带业务等环比有所增长，但无线、工业等业务仍在继续下滑。 3.基础设施软件 ：本季度实现 66 亿美元，环比下滑 1 亿美元。受 VMware 并购 ...

国内网约车龙头滴滴，在 6 月 5 日晚公布了 2025 年的第一份季度财报，整体来看增长端表现平稳在预期之内；利润表现则比较出彩，好于预期且趋势上国内和海 外业务的利润率都有改善，以下是核心要点： 3、平台变现率走高、利润超预期的背后原因： 以国内业务 GTV 约 9% 的增速为基准，可见 本季平台收入 （主要从 GTV 扣除司机分成及其他运营侧成本，更反 映平台留存的利润） 同比增长约 24%， 而财务指标的 国内业务营收 （从 GTV 主要剔除乘客补贴、税费等收入减项） 同比增长 7.8%。 从平台收入大幅跑赢 GTV，而财务营收小幅跑输， 可见 滴滴中国业务的平台变现率是有走高的，也是本季利润超预期的根本原因。 相对的， 本季对消费者的补 贴则略有提升， 拖累了财务营收增速。 4、海外保持高增长又减亏：海外业务上，本季名义 GTV 同比增长 13% 。看似并不高， 但仍主要是受汇率逆风的影响。 剔除汇率影响后， 国际业务 GTV 实际 增速近 28%。 从不受价格因素影响的订单量同比增速达 23.5%，也可见海外业务的增长是不错的。 与此同时，如上文提及的， 本季海外业务的亏损也收窄到仅 1.8 亿 ...

Financial Results Overview - Total revenue for Q3 2023 is projected at 171.0 million, a decrease of 7.2% year-over-year [1] - Gross profit for Q3 2023 is expected to be 12.8 million, with a gross profit margin (GPM) of 7.5% [1] - Operating profit is forecasted at -66.3 million, with an operating profit margin (OPM) of -38.8% [1] - Auto revenue is anticipated to be 154.4 million, with deliveries expected to reach 50,045 units [1] Management Commentary - Q2 2023 deliveries are projected between 72,000 and 75,000 units, driven by the launch of new models [2] - The new ES6 and EC6 models were launched on May 16, 2023, with deliveries starting on May 20, 2023 [3] - The ET9 flagship sedan has outperformed competitors in the high-end market, surpassing sales of BMW 7 Series and Audi A8 [5] Product Performance - The ONVO brand is experiencing increased demand, with the flagship SUV L90 set to launch in Q3 2023 [6] - The Firefly model began deliveries in late April, targeting both Chinese and European markets [7] Technological Advancements - The NX9031 system has been deployed in models like ES6 and ET5, enhancing competitiveness with the Sky OS and intelligent TSE systems [8] - An upgrade to the NWM system is expected to improve driving and parking functionalities [9] Sales Network Expansion - The company operates 184 NIO centers and 461 NIO spaces in China, with a service network covering 391 service centers [10] - Globally, there are 3,408 battery swap stations and over 26,000 charging points [11] - The company has entered 15+ core international markets, with plans to launch the Firefly global model in Q3 2023 [12] Future Outlook - The company plans to launch several key models in the second half of the year, with an acceleration in delivery volumes starting in Q3 2023 [13] - The goal is to achieve a monthly delivery target of 25,000 units by Q4 2023, with a projected gross margin exceeding 20% [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concerns surrounding BYD's debt levels and the implications of its aggressive pricing strategy in the context of the automotive industry, particularly in light of comparisons to Evergrande's financial troubles. Debt Analysis - BYD's debt stands at 594.3 billion, with a debt ratio of approximately 75%, which is considered medium to high within the automotive sector [2][3] - Compared to new energy vehicle companies like NIO and Zeekr, which have debt ratios exceeding 85%, BYD's debt level is relatively moderate [3][5] - Traditional automakers like Volkswagen and Jianghuai also have debt ratios around 70%, indicating that BYD's debt is not out of line with industry standards [3] Comparison with Evergrande - The article highlights the differences between BYD and Evergrande, emphasizing that BYD's high debt is primarily operational rather than reliant on high-interest debt [5][6] - Evergrande's financial issues stemmed from high-interest debt and a lack of trust from investors, leading to a vicious cycle of cash flow problems [5][6] Operational Debt vs. Interest-Bearing Debt - BYD's operational debt, mainly accounts payable, allows for flexibility in payment terms without incurring interest, contrasting sharply with Evergrande's reliance on high-interest loans [7][8] - The operational debt structure provides BYD with a competitive edge, allowing it to manage cash flow effectively while maintaining strong bargaining power with suppliers [7][8] Supply Chain Financing - BYD utilizes a supply chain financing model known as "D-Link," which allows suppliers to receive payment through electronic promissory notes, effectively reducing the need for high-interest loans [15][16] - This model is common in the industry, but BYD's scale makes its accounts payable appear more significant, leading to scrutiny [21][23] Risks and Market Position - The reliance on high sales volumes is critical for BYD's operational model, as any decline in sales could trigger cash flow issues and impact its ability to meet obligations [27][35] - The article notes that while BYD is currently in a strong market position, any significant drop in sales could lead to a financial crisis similar to that of Evergrande [27][35] Pricing Strategy - BYD's recent price cuts are seen as a strategic move to maintain market share amid increasing competition, particularly from rivals like Geely [36][39] - The company maintains a relatively high gross margin, allowing it to engage in price wars without immediate financial distress [39][41] Conclusion - The article concludes that while BYD's debt levels are concerning, they are fundamentally different from Evergrande's issues, and the company's strong market position and operational strategies provide a buffer against potential financial crises [50]

蔚来汽车 (NIO.N) 于北京时间2025年6月3日美股盘前，港股盘后发布了 2025年第一季度财报。一季度业绩虽然很烂，但二季度指引在边际改善，来详细看一下： 1、汽车收入再次miss市场预期，但仍在海豚君意料之中： 单车收入本季度23.6万，环比下滑0.4万元，虽然又来到了历史新低，且miss市场预期24.1万，但蔚来一 季度由于对老款库存车折扣加大+L6占比环比提升的车型结构的负面拖累，可以理解。 2. 卖车毛利率又环比回落到10%左右，和与市场之前沟通的一致： 从卖车毛利率来说，蔚来之前其实也已经沟通过本季度卖车毛利率10%左右（4Q24业绩会之 后），而环比回落的原因主要由于单价下滑，再加上销量本季度环比下滑42%，导致的单车摊折成本的上升。 3. 经营利润miss预期主要由于还没有砍下来的销管费用，但会在二季度看到成效： 本次业绩的经营亏损又来到了几乎历史新高的-64亿，和市场预期差有7亿，但 其中6亿的miss是因为销管费用还没有来得及砍下来，而管理层已经说过二季度会迎来大幅调整，并体现在报表上。 4. 二季度销量指引不错，有销量就有蔚来活下去的希望： 二季度销量指引7.2-7.5万辆，相当于 ...

Core Viewpoint - Salesforce's recent quarterly results indicate a stable performance with most key metrics meeting or slightly exceeding expectations, but revenue growth remains stagnant and profit margin expansion has stalled [1][6]. Revenue Growth - Subscription revenue grew by 8.3% year-over-year, slightly above the expected 7.4%, showing initial signs of stabilization. However, constant currency growth remained flat at 9%, indicating no significant improvement [1][2]. - Traditional IT spending areas such as sales, customer service, and marketing continue to show weak growth, reflecting a lack of enthusiasm in IT budget allocations among European and American companies due to economic concerns and tariff impacts [1][2]. AI and Cloud Performance - The platform cloud and data analytics segments, which are more closely related to AI, performed significantly better, exceeding expectations by approximately 5 percentage points and 4 percentage points, respectively [2]. - The growth in platform cloud is likely driven by increased corporate spending on AI, despite overall IT budgets not increasing [2]. Leading Indicators - The nominal year-over-year growth rate of cRPO (contracted revenue not yet recognized) was 12.1%, appearing to accelerate compared to the previous quarter. However, this was primarily due to favorable currency effects, with constant currency growth remaining at 11% [3]. Profit Margins - Gross profit for subscription revenue was $7.67 billion, a year-over-year increase of 9.4%. However, this was below expectations, and the growth rate showed signs of slowing [3][4]. - The subscription business's gross margin decreased by 0.5 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, with year-over-year growth narrowing to less than 1 percentage point, indicating a stagnation in the upward trend of gross margins [4]. Expense Management - Total operating expenses were $5.62 billion, a year-over-year increase of 6.8%, which was lower than revenue growth, leading to a slight decrease in the expense ratio by approximately 0.4 percentage points [3][4]. - Marketing expenses, the largest component of total expenses, were $3.43 billion, growing by 5.9%, without significant increases due to AI promotions [3]. Operating Profit - Operating profit increased by 13.6% year-over-year to $1.94 billion, with a slight margin improvement of 1.2 percentage points. However, the rate of profit margin expansion has significantly slowed compared to previous fiscal years [4][5]. Cash Flow - Free cash flow for the quarter was approximately $6.3 billion, exceeding market expectations of $5.89 billion, but only reflecting a 4% year-over-year growth, indicating the company is in an investment cycle [4][5]. Guidance - For the next quarter, Salesforce guided revenue growth at 8% to 9% in constant currency, which is better than market expectations but does not indicate significant acceleration [4][5].