Group 1 - Meituan-W (03690) rose nearly 4% as regulatory discussions with food delivery platforms suggest a slowdown in subsidy wars, which may benefit Meituan's user experience rebound [1] - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project commenced with an investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, equivalent to the construction of three Three Gorges projects [1] - Cement stocks surged in the Hong Kong market, with Huaxin Cement (06655) increasing over 29% following the hydropower project announcement [1] - Stablecoin concept stocks strengthened after Trump signed a stablecoin bill, with Huajian Medical (01931) rising over 23% [1] - UBTECH (09880) saw a nearly 10% increase after winning a major procurement order for humanoid robots worth nearly 100 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Nongfu Spring (09633) increased over 3% as analysts believe the company will benefit from competitive public sentiment, indicating a strong business recovery [2] - Xintong Medical-B (02160) rose over 5% as MicroPort plans to inject its CRM business into Xintong Medical, aiding in the establishment of a heart disease product platform [2] - Oil stocks generally rose, with Sinopec (00386) increasing nearly 4% after Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast for the second half of the year [2] - Chinese brokerage stocks remained active, with major brokerages reporting a year-on-year net profit growth of 50%-80% for the first half of the year [2] Group 3 - Netflix (NFLX.US) fell over 5% as investors had overly high expectations for Q2 performance, despite revenue growth of 15.9% year-on-year to $11.08 billion [3] - Interactive Brokers (IBKR.US) rose 7.77% as Q2 profits and revenues increased [4] - Blaize Holdings (BZAI.US) surged 58.75% after securing a $120 million AI infrastructure contract [4] - OpenDoor Technologies (OPEN.US) jumped 36.36% as interest in the platform surged significantly on social media [4] - Talen Energy (TLN.US) rose 24.48% to a record high after announcing a $3.5 billion acquisition of two gas power plants, expected to boost free cash flow per share by over 40% [4] - Futu Holdings (FUTU.US) increased 7% as Barclays highlighted its potential for accelerated growth as a leading online brokerage in Asia [4]

点击蓝字，关注我们 尽管特朗普当天晚些时候否认了相关计划，部分市场反应有所逆转，但范吉伦等投资者仍坚持原有策 略。 智通财经APP获悉，上周一则"美国总统特朗普可能解雇美联储主席鲍威尔"的消息引发全球市场震 动。在此关键时刻，Citrini Research分析师詹姆斯·范吉伦迅速向约5万名客户发出"宏观交易"警报， 提出一个简洁策略：买入两年期美债，同时卖出十年期美债。 这一操作的逻辑在于，若新任美联储主席更倾向配合特朗普的降息诉求， 短期债券收益率可能因政 策宽松预期而下行;而央行独立性被削弱的担忧，则可能推高长期通胀预期，进而抬升长期债券收益 率。 值得注意的是，这一预期在鲍威尔随后发表讲话后迅速应验，市场波动甚至超出最初预测。尽管特朗 普当天晚些时候否认了相关计划，部分市场反应有所逆转，但范吉伦等投资者仍坚持原有策略，认为 这一曾被视为"不可想象"的风险正逐渐成为现实威胁。 上周的市场反应直观展现了这一风险的冲击力：从"解雇传闻"到特朗普否认的不足一小时里，美国30 年期国债收益率飙升0.11个百分点，其与5年期国债收益率之差扩大至2021年以来最高水平;美元兑欧 元跌幅超1%，股市亦大幅下挫。 不过 ...

Group 1: Hong Kong Stocks - Oriental Selection (01797) surged over 14% with the upcoming launch of a second sanitary napkin product, indicating growth potential in self-operated products [1] - AI application stocks rose in early trading, with Kingsoft Cloud (03896) and Innovation Works (02121) both up over 11%, and other companies like Kintor Pharmaceutical (01860) and Kingdee International (00268) also showing gains [1] - Yao Cai Securities (01428) increased over 8% as Ant Group actively develops stablecoins in Hong Kong, enhancing the prospects for Yao Cai's virtual asset business [1] - Meitu (01357) saw a rise of over 7% during trading, with institutions optimistic about the company's performance potential due to AI Agent product validation [1] - Jinli Permanent Magnet (06680) initially rose over 8%, with a projected net profit increase of up to 180% year-on-year for the first half of the year, as institutions reassess the value of rare earth strategic metals [1] - NIO-SW (09866) increased over 4% as the pre-sale price of the L90 model exceeded expectations, with Morgan Stanley forecasting monthly sales to surpass 5,000 units [1] - Guoquan (02517) rose over 11% following an earnings forecast, expecting a net profit of approximately 180 million to 210 million yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of about 111%-146% [1][2] Group 2: US Stocks - PepsiCo (PEP.US) rose 7.45% after Q2 earnings exceeded expectations, with EPS at $2.12, surpassing the forecast of $2.03, and revenue growing 1.0% year-on-year to $22.73 billion [3] - Lucid (LCID.US) soared 36.24% as it announced a partnership with Uber to launch a self-driving taxi fleet [3] - Abbott (ABT.US) fell over 8% due to Q3 guidance falling short of expectations and a downward revision of the annual profit forecast [3] - AI application software stocks saw gains, with Unity Software (U.US) rising over 12% at one point, and other companies like SoundHound AI (SOUN.US) and AppLovin (APP.US) also increasing [3] - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM.US) rose 3.38%, achieving a record high with Q2 EPS of $2.47, exceeding the forecast of $2.39, and revenue growing 44.4% year-on-year to $30.07 billion [4] - Oracle (ORCL.US) increased 3.09%, reaching a new high as it announced a $3 billion investment in AI and cloud infrastructure in Germany and the Netherlands over the next five years [4] - BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI.US) rose 15.45% ahead of its earnings report, with expectations of a loss of $0.07 per share but revenue projected to reach $40.99 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.04% [4] Group 3: Drone and Streaming Stocks - Drone-related stocks strengthened, with Palladyne AI (PDYN.US) rising 31.4% and Joby Aviation (JOBY.US) increasing 8.51% amid U.S. Department of Commerce investigations into drone systems and key solar materials [5] - Netflix (NFLX.US) saw a slight decline of over 2% after reporting Q2 revenue of $11.079 billion, slightly above the forecast, but underperformed in the APAC and LATAM regions [5]

Group 1 - Amazon is laying off employees in its cloud computing division, AWS, amid rising costs associated with artificial intelligence [1] - The layoffs will affect multiple teams within AWS, with the company confirming that the decision was made after a comprehensive review of its organization and priorities [1] - Amazon's CEO, Andy Jassy, indicated in June that the company expects to reduce its workforce in the coming years as it leverages AI to handle more tasks [1] Group 2 - The layoffs are expected to impact hundreds of employees, although Amazon has not disclosed the exact number [2] - As of the end of March, Amazon employed approximately 1.56 million people, making it the second-largest private employer in the U.S. after Walmart [2] - A significant portion of Amazon's workforce is involved in warehouse operations, but over 350,000 employees work in corporate roles [2]

Brand Positioning - The company positions itself as a high-end Chinese gold brand, aiming to compete with international luxury brands, often referred to as the "Hermès of gold" [1] - The company employs a daily purchase limit per person to prevent scalping and artificially create scarcity, similar to luxury brands like Hermès and Chanel [1] Customer Segmentation - The "one percenter" group, representing the top 1% of customers, contributes significantly to revenue, with over 80,000 loyal members as of the end of 2023 [3] - Members spending over 1 million RMB annually account for 0.1% of the total but contribute 15.9% of revenue, while those spending less than 5,000 RMB contribute 39.6% [3][4] Pricing Model - The company uses a fixed pricing model based on style and craftsmanship complexity, minimizing daily gold price fluctuations and reducing the emphasis on weight [5] Channel Strategy - The company operates a dual-channel model with only 40 physical stores in China and one in Singapore, focusing on high-end locations [6][7] Performance Metrics - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 8.506 billion RMB, a 167.5% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit of 3.501 billion RMB, up 162.9% [8] - Offline store revenue accounted for 87.6% of total revenue, while online sales reached 1.055 billion RMB, growing 192.2% [8] Growth Strategy - The company plans to open 9 new stores in 2025, exceeding its original target of 6-8, with successful openings in Singapore indicating strong overseas expansion [15] - The launch of new products, such as the "Seven Sons Enamel Gold Gourd," has generated significant sales, with 34 million RMB in GMV within 17 days [16] Market Sentiment - The stock experienced a significant drop following a lock-up period expiration, but historical trends suggest potential for recovery [10][12] - The company is expected to report strong earnings growth in the first half of 2025, with projections indicating a 268% increase in sales and a 284% increase in net profit [23] Gold Market Outlook - The company anticipates a rise in gold prices in the second half of 2025, supported by central bank purchases and geopolitical risks [24]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Federal Reserve Governor Waller advocates for a 25 basis point interest rate cut to support a weakening labor market, contrasting with other officials who believe employment remains strong [1][2] - Waller emphasizes that inflation is close to the target level of 2%, and the risks of rising inflation are limited, suggesting that policy adjustments should focus on underlying inflation rather than tariff impacts [1][2] - The overall inflation rate in the U.S. has shown lower-than-expected growth in June, marking the fifth consecutive month of such trends, although recent data indicates that tariffs imposed by President Trump are starting to affect prices [1][2] Group 2 - Waller notes that inflation expectations remain stable and wage growth has not accelerated, which alleviates concerns about persistent inflation, while the risks of a weakening job market have increased significantly [2] - Economic growth is slowing, with an estimated growth rate of about 1% for the first half of the year, and a continued low growth outlook is expected through the remainder of 2025 [2] - Other policymakers, including Governor Kugler and New York Fed President Williams, express concerns about the inflationary impact of tariffs and prefer to delay interest rate cuts [3] Group 3 - Kugler argues that the Fed should not cut rates for some time as tariffs are beginning to affect consumer prices, indicating that a tight monetary policy is still necessary to curb inflation expectations [3] - Williams anticipates that tariffs will have a more significant impact on inflation in the coming months, supporting the current tightening policy as appropriate [3] - Futures contracts suggest that investors expect the Fed to maintain interest rates in the upcoming meeting, with a slightly higher probability of a rate cut in September [3]

Core Viewpoint - OpenAI is expanding its cloud infrastructure by partnering with Google, in addition to its existing relationships with Microsoft, CoreWeave, and Oracle, to meet the increasing demand for computational resources for its ChatGPT and related applications [1][2]. Group 1: OpenAI's Cloud Strategy - OpenAI has shifted from relying solely on Microsoft for cloud services to incorporating Google Cloud, indicating a growing need for computational power [1]. - The partnership with Google is beneficial for Google Cloud, which is smaller and newer compared to Amazon and Microsoft's cloud divisions [1]. - OpenAI has also signed a five-year cloud service agreement with CoreWeave valued at nearly $12 billion [2]. Group 2: Microsoft and OpenAI Relationship - Microsoft has agreed to provide OpenAI with priority purchasing rights for additional computational resources, rather than being the sole supplier [2]. - Microsoft retains exclusive rights to OpenAI's programming interface [2]. Group 3: Challenges Faced by OpenAI - OpenAI is facing capacity constraints in utilizing NVIDIA GPUs to drive its large language models [2].

Group 1: Market Performance - Bilibili-W (09626) rose over 4% due to growth in gaming and advertising, with Bank of America raising the target price to HKD 211 [1] - Innovation drugs continue to attract funding, with companies like 3SBio (01530) up over 8%, CanSino Biologics (09926) up over 12%, and others reaching historical highs [1] - DaMai Entertainment (01060) increased over 5% as it became the official channel for Scottish Super League matches, indicating growth in sports ticketing [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - The National Healthcare Security Administration of China initiated the 11th batch of centralized drug procurement, focusing on mature "old drugs" and excluding innovative drugs from the procurement [1] - In the first half of this year, the total amount of License out for Chinese innovative drugs approached USD 66 billion, surpassing the total BD transaction amount for 2024, indicating sustained interest from multinational corporations [1] Group 3: Company-Specific News - Meitu (01357) rose over 5% due to significant progress in overseas lifestyle and productivity scene expansion, including a strategic partnership with Alibaba [2] - Tengsheng Bo Pharmaceutical-B (02137) increased over 7% after granting exclusive rights for a new drug in Greater China to Health元 Group [2] - Smoore International (06969) fell over 2% as it expects a profit decline of up to 35% in the first half of the year due to increased expenses [2] Group 4: Notable Stock Movements - Blueport Interactive (08267) surged over 40% after establishing the LK Crypto division to accelerate Web3 and RWA layout [2] - Gilead Sciences-B (01672) saw an early morning increase of over 11% as clinical research for ASC47 in treating obesity was completed [2] - MicroPort Medical (0853.HK) rose over 6% as it considers a non-binding proposal to restructure its CRM business [3]

Core Viewpoint - Evercore ISI suggests that ASML's stock price drop after the second quarter earnings report presents a buying opportunity, maintaining an "outperform" rating with a target price of €803, approximately 14% above the closing price on July 15 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - ASML reported strong second-quarter results with total revenue of €7.7 billion and net profit of €2.3 billion, both at the upper end of guidance [1] - The company has experienced a 35% to 40% compression in its price-to-earnings ratio over the past nine months, indicating that weak performance expectations are already reflected in the stock price [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - ASML management anticipates a potential decline in gross margins in the second half of the year due to high numerical aperture technology revenue recognition and a reduction in upgrade service offerings [1] - Despite the uncertainty surrounding growth in 2026, ASML is still expected to meet its 2025 revenue target of €32.5 billion [1] - Strong demand for artificial intelligence is highlighted as a key growth driver in the foundry logic and DRAM markets [1] Group 3: Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, ASML's stock price fell by 8.3% as of Wednesday's market close [2]

事实上，市场早已对特朗普的"关税言论"有所警觉。华尔街甚至戏称"TACO"（Trump Always Chickens Out，特朗普总是临阵退缩）来描述这种典型走势，即市场因特朗普威胁关税而下跌，但 又因他迟迟未落实而迅速反弹。 在新一轮谈判前夕，中美双方近期已在多个关键领域互释善意，展开"筹码交换"。贝森特在采访 中证实，特朗普政府已向英伟达(NVDA.US)保证，将向其发放许可，允许其向中国企业出售高端 图形处理器。他说："你可以认为这是我们在日内瓦和伦敦谈判中用过的一个筹码。整个过程就像 拼图一样。 他们有我们想要的东西，我们也有他们想要的。 " 点击蓝字，关注我们 随着中美之间90天关税休战期即将于8月12日到期，市场关注是否会迎来新一轮贸易摩擦。 随着中美之间90天关税休战期即将于8月12日到期，市场关注是否会迎来新一轮贸易摩擦。但美国 财政部长贝森特周二在接受采访时表示，投资者无需过度担心这一"最后期限"。 "我告诉市场参与者，不要担心8月12日。"贝森特在采访中说道。 他指的是5月12日宣布的中美90 天关税停战协议即将到期的日子。作为特朗普政府关税谈判的核心人物之一，贝森特此番言论， 意在为 ...