↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ A股三大指数今日宽幅震荡，截止收盘，沪指跌0.18%，收报3821.83点；深证成指跌0.29%，收报13119.82点；创业板指涨0.21%，收报 3114.55点。沪深两市成交额达到24944亿，较昨日放量3729亿。上涨股票数量近1100只。 行业板块多数收跌，银行、航运港口、半导体板块涨幅居前，旅游酒店、房地产服务、小金属、医疗服务、软件开发、汽车服务板块跌幅居前。今 天行情波动很大，我们一起看看发生了什么。 01 三大指集体震荡！ 今天市场演绎了惊心动魄的大幅震荡。早盘后持续走弱，盘中集体翻绿。午间收盘时全市场近5000支个股下跌。在午后，沪指一度跌至1.3%，深 成指跌2.1%，创业板指跌2%。 令人惊喜的是，尾盘指数走高，创业板指拉升翻红，沪指、深成指跌幅均收窄，半导体芯片板块是涨幅的主要贡献者。 对于今天的行情，分析人士认为，长假前正常都会有兑现行情，特别是杠杆资金，都要对不确定性进行一些回避。目前，融资余额已达2.4万亿元 规模。虽然，与流通市值的比值并不算高，但其整体规模的确也比较大。若有风险因子触发，也会有冲击。因此，这也是资金的正常需求。 消息面上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growing preference among high-net-worth investors for multi-asset multi-strategy hedge funds, contrasting this with the general trend of retail investors favoring index funds for passive returns [5][12]. Group 1: Multi-Asset Multi-Strategy Hedge Funds - High-net-worth investors are increasingly attracted to hedge funds that employ multi-asset multi-strategy approaches, as exemplified by notable funds like Bridgewater Associates, Millennium Management, and Citadel, which manage assets of approximately $150 billion, $64 billion, and $62 billion respectively [5][6]. - The shift towards multi-asset multi-strategy investing began in the 1950s and has evolved significantly, especially after the financial crises of 2000-2008, which highlighted the need for diversified strategies to mitigate risks [7][9][10]. - The performance of top hedge funds in 2024 showcases the effectiveness of macro and multi-strategy approaches, with funds like Discovery and PointState achieving returns of 52.0% and 47.9% respectively [11]. Group 2: Investment Goals and Risk Management - High-net-worth investors have shifted their investment goals towards seeking stable returns in uncertain markets, rather than attempting to predict market movements [12]. - The concept of risk parity has evolved to encompass not just asset risk but also the parallel use of multiple strategies, aiming for absolute alpha [12]. - For wealthy individuals, preserving capital is often prioritized over achieving high returns, as the cost of potential losses is significantly higher than the value of gains [13]. Group 3: Characteristics of Multi-Asset Multi-Strategy - Multi-asset multi-strategy investing involves allocating funds across various asset classes with low correlation to achieve returns across different market cycles [14][16]. - This approach is seen as a more effective wealth management tool in the context of shifting savings patterns among residents [15]. - The dynamic nature of markets necessitates a move away from single-asset strategies, with multi-asset multi-strategy trading providing a means to achieve stable absolute returns [20]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Asset Performance - The article highlights the volatility of various asset classes over the past decade, indicating that no single asset has consistently performed well, emphasizing the need for diversified strategies [17]. - Different economic cycles favor different asset classes, such as stocks during recovery, commodities during overheating, and high-quality bonds during recessions, aligning with the classic investment theory of the Merrill Lynch clock [21]. - Multi-strategy approaches allow for risk diversification and complementary returns, adapting to various market conditions and mitigating the risks associated with single-strategy investments [22]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Considerations - The future of multi-asset multi-strategy investing in China appears promising, with significant growth potential, although investors must be discerning in selecting genuine strategies that deliver stable profits [22][23]. - It is crucial to evaluate whether a strategy genuinely incorporates both multi-asset and multi-strategy elements, as some may only superficially meet these criteria [23]. - The complexity of multi-asset multi-strategy trading necessitates robust research and management capabilities from fund managers to ensure effective execution [23].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant market differentiation observed in 2023, highlighting the contrasting performances of the food and beverage sector, which has seen a decline of 0.87%, versus the technology sector, which has experienced gains exceeding 40% in indices like the Shenwan Communications and Shenwan Electronics [5][6]. Group 1: Thematic Investing - The concept of "thematic investing" involves selecting a specific investment theme and identifying companies that support this theme, ultimately constructing an investment portfolio around these companies [8]. - While many investors believe that choosing the right theme guarantees profits, the reality is that missteps can lead to substantial losses, as evidenced by the contrasting fortunes of "old" and "new" asset classes in previous market cycles [9][10]. - Historical data shows that many investors in thematic funds have not recouped their investments, particularly those who entered at market peaks [10]. Group 2: Conditions for Successful Thematic Investment - To profit from thematic funds, three conditions must be met: identifying long-term winning themes, selecting funds that can capitalize on these themes, and entering the market at undervalued times [19][24]. - A reliable investment theme should be supported by solid logic, such as industry policy support or technological breakthroughs, rather than mere speculation [20]. - The timing of investment is crucial; entering a popular theme after it has already gained traction can lead to missed opportunities and potential losses [25]. Group 3: Role of Thematic Funds in Portfolios - For most ordinary investors, thematic funds are not essential for achieving steady profits, as they do not significantly diversify risk compared to other asset classes [27]. - The correlation between thematic funds and major market indices has remained high, suggesting that adding thematic funds to a portfolio with index funds may not provide substantial risk diversification [28]. - Thematic funds are better suited as "satellite holdings" rather than "core allocations" within an investment portfolio, and their proportion should be strictly controlled to mitigate potential losses during market fluctuations [30][33].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a collective rise in major indices, with significant gains in the consumer electronics and semiconductor sectors, indicating a strong market sentiment driven by AI and consumer demand [1][3][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - The three major A-share indices rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.22%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.67%, and ChiNext Index up 0.55% [1]. - The total trading volume in the two markets was 2.12 trillion yuan, a decrease of 200 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 3,100 stocks declining [1]. - Industrial Fulian's stock price surged by 6.66%, reaching a historical high and a market capitalization exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan, marking a fivefold increase since April 9 [1]. Group 2: Consumer Electronics Sector - Luxshare Precision's stock hit the daily limit, with a maximum order amount exceeding 4.6 billion yuan, reflecting strong performance in the consumer electronics sector [3]. - Apple-related stocks saw a collective rise, with several companies, including Hongfu Han and Fuliwang, hitting their daily limits or rising over 10% [3]. - OpenAI has partnered with Luxshare Precision to develop a consumer-grade device, indicating a growing trend of AI integration in consumer electronics [5]. Group 3: AI Chip Sector - The AI chip sector is experiencing heightened activity, with companies like Zhongke Shuguang and Haiguang Information reaching historical highs [7]. - The upcoming IPO of Moore Threads on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board is expected to raise 8 billion yuan, aimed at advancing domestic GPU technology and reducing reliance on foreign chips [9]. - The semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors are entering a new growth phase, with projected revenue growth of 19.2% and net profit growth of 29% for 467 electronic companies in the first half of 2025 [10]. Group 4: Investment Signals - Berkshire Hathaway has completely divested its stake in BYD, a move that may signal a shift in investment strategy and prompts investors to reassess their positions [12][16]. - The sale of BYD shares, which yielded a 38-fold return for Berkshire, highlights the importance of strategic exits in investment management [15].

Core Viewpoint - The current bull market in A-shares has seen significant gains, with the ChiNext Index and STAR Market Index rising by 91.65% and 98.41% respectively since the market bottom on September 24 last year, indicating that the market has been performing for a considerable time [4][5]. Market Performance - The bull market has been characterized by rapid shifts in market hotspots, making it challenging for investors to achieve satisfactory returns unless they were actively engaged during key trading days [4][5]. - As of September 8, major indices like the CSI 300 and the CSI A500 have increased by 16.1% and 18.62% respectively this year, while the ChiNext Index has seen a remarkable rise of 38.5% [6]. Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to reduce trading frequency and hold onto their positions rather than chasing market trends, as this approach may yield better returns in the long run [5]. - Maintaining a defensive position with a portion of value-style assets is recommended to navigate market volatility, with suggestions to upgrade holdings to funds that exhibit strong defensive characteristics during downturns [7]. - Selecting and patiently holding onto industry themes such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, semiconductors, and precious metals is encouraged, while also considering less popular sectors for potential opportunities [8]. Asset Allocation - A "core-satellite" strategy is proposed, where the core portfolio consists of stable, high-probability assets, while a smaller portion is allocated to riskier assets for potential high returns [8].

以下文章来源于思想钢印 ，作者思想钢印 思想钢印 . 雪球2020年度十大影响力用户，私募基金经理 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：思想钢印 来源：雪球 01 神奇的大卖单 本周三四 ， 多个证券股都出现了天量卖单 ， 但并不像普通的大资金出货 。 大资金出货是一个技术活 ， 要尽可能减少对盘面的冲击 ， 化整为零 ， 控制节奏 ， 甚至有专门的算法 ； 就算是人气龙头股可以快速打压股价 后 ， 在低位利用震荡出货给抄底资金 ， 也要尽可能减少挂出大卖单 。 但这几个股票完全相反 ， 在卖出压低价格后 ， 又在盘面 " 卖一价 " 上挂出亿元大卖单 。 这种非常粗暴的卖出手段 ， 生怕别人不知道有人在卖 ， 很多人认为 ， 很可能是监管层在向市场传递某种信息 。 真实情况是什么 ， 我们可能很难知道 ， 但 如果真的这么做 。 其实也符合监管一贯的稳定市场的思路 ， 你总不能说 ， 暴跌的时候出手托底就 是对的 ， 涨急了降温就是错的 ？ 还有人认为 ， 这种非市场化的控盘手段 ， 不会达到想要的慢牛的目的 。 但我 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the downfall of Curtis Faith, the author of the "Turtle Trading Rules," highlighting the contrast between his past success as a trader and his current state of bankruptcy and homelessness, emphasizing the unpredictability of life and the importance of discipline in trading [3][4][18]. Group 1: Turtle Trading Rules - The Turtle Trading Rules, developed in the 1980s by Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt, is a well-known mechanical trading system that proved trading can be taught [5][6]. - The system is based on trend-following principles, where traders buy when prices break above certain levels and sell when they fall below others, focusing on capturing market trends [7][10]. - Key components of the system include entry signals based on price breakouts, risk management by limiting exposure to 1% of account funds per trade, and strict stop-loss rules to cut losses [7][10]. Group 2: Curtis Faith's Journey - Curtis Faith was one of the youngest Turtle Traders, achieving significant profits early in his career, reportedly earning over $10 million for his fund [15][17]. - After leaving the Turtle program, he attempted various ventures, including startups in IT and blockchain, but faced numerous failures, leading to financial ruin [19][25]. - His recent legal troubles and homelessness serve as a cautionary tale about the volatility of trading success and the risks of overextending in speculative ventures [13][28]. Group 3: Lessons Learned - The article emphasizes the importance of skepticism towards trading gurus, suggesting that even successful traders can face significant failures, as demonstrated by Faith's experience [30][32]. - It warns against excessive risk-taking and highlights the need for disciplined investment strategies, contrasting trend-following with value investing approaches [34][37]. - The narrative concludes with a reflection on the long-term nature of successful investing, advocating for diversified asset allocation as a means to withstand market fluctuations [50].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant penalties faced by Juewei Foods due to underreporting revenue over five years, leading to a substantial decline in market value and the imposition of an ST label on its stock [2][3][9]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions and Penalties - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) reported that Juewei Foods underreported revenue by a total of 724 million yuan from 2019 to 2023, resulting in a fine of 8.5 million yuan [2][5]. - The company will face a one-day suspension of its stock on September 22, followed by the implementation of risk warnings starting September 23, which includes the addition of the ST label [3][8]. - The penalties include a warning and a fine of 4 million yuan for the company, while the chairman and general manager, Dai Wenjun, was fined 2 million yuan for direct responsibility [8]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Impact - Juewei Foods' market value has decreased by 57.5 billion yuan over three years, with its stock price dropping from a historical high of 21 yuan per share to around 15-16 yuan [10][11]. - The company's revenue showed a growth trend from 52.76 billion yuan in 2020 to 72.61 billion yuan in 2023, but net profit declined from 7.01 billion yuan to 3.44 billion yuan during the same period, indicating a pattern of increasing revenue without corresponding profit growth [16]. - In 2024, the company experienced a revenue decline of 13.84% year-on-year, with net profit dropping by 34.04%, and the first half of 2025 continued this trend with a 15.6% revenue decrease [16][17]. Group 3: Investor Reactions and Market Sentiment - Investor reactions to the ST label have been mixed, with some believing that the resolution of the investigation could lead to a recovery in stock price, while others remain skeptical due to ongoing fundamental issues such as declining store numbers and profits [18][19]. - The company has acknowledged the impact of the penalties on its operations and has committed to rectifying the issues and enhancing compliance measures to protect shareholder interests [20].

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 作者：奶牛的天空 来源：雪球 牛市大批人去做短线了，但是我依然执着于长线投资。今天来聊聊投资回报公式： 长期投资收益率=股息率+利润成长+估值变动 。举例：假设买入 股 票 时 ， 实 时 股 息 率 为 5% ， 利 润 成 长 年 化 为 5% ， PE 为 10； 假 设 卖 出 股 票 时 PE 保 持 不 变 ， 那 么 持 有 这 只 股 票 的 长 期 投 资 收 益 率 为 10%（5%+5%）。 一般来说，企业的基本面不发生变化的前提下，其估值会在一个区域内来回波动，期间可能会随着市场走牛或走熊而发生变化，但是最终的长期估 值还是会回归到它的基本面上来。 总结起来讲，基本面决定企业的长期估值，市场牛熊影响企业的短期估值。 下面我将逐一把公式里的3个元素讲 透： 一、 股息率为股票买入时的实时股息率 炒股软件上的股息率数据通常会有些滞后，特别是当天股价波动比较大的时候影响就比较大，我们可以自行来计算，准确率可以达到100%。 实时股息率=分红金额/当前实时股价*股权摊薄率。 如果企业一年有多次分红，注意要把各次的分红都加上。同时，如果企业每年的分红政策不是 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 作者：只买消费垄断 来源：雪球 逆向思维，就是，反过来想。总是反过来想。芒格认为，研究失败比研究成功更有价值。因为失败往往揭示了根本问题和风险所在。通过逆向思 考，人们可以更好的识别和规避陷阱，避免犯同样的错误。在股市投资中，芒格通过研究失败的公司的共同规律，来规避风险，他认为避免愚蠢比 追求智慧更容易成功，芒格在书中把失败的公司的原因归为四大类。 第一类失败，能力圈之外的无知型失败：不懂的公司坚决不买。 投资者买股票踩雷，本质是公司的失败。公司失败，本质是投资者和管理者，对业务的底层逻辑毫无认知。导致决策脱离现实。比如盲目跨界，盲 目多元化，比如传统制造业去做互联网，消费品公司去投资芯片，缺乏技术积累也不懂新行业规则，最终投入打水漂。比如箭牌口香糖，主业做的 很好，但是为了多元化盲目收购软件公司，因为完全不懂软件的研发，迭代逻辑，最终软件业务持续亏损，拖累了主业。再比如阿里巴巴投资饿了 吗，苏宁易购，大润发，高德地图，基本都是亏损累累。伯克希尔1989年收购美国航空优先股，到1994年亏损75%。芒格后来承认他和巴菲特低估 了航空业密集的资本投入和同质化竞争；再比如贵州 ...