Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that SpaceX is preparing for an IPO in 2026 with a target valuation of $1.5 trillion, significantly higher than its current valuation of $800 billion [2][5][6]. - SpaceX's stock price has surged to $421 per share, doubling from $212 in July, and has surpassed OpenAI's valuation, reclaiming its title as the world's most valuable unicorn [7][8]. - The anticipated IPO could raise $30 billion, potentially setting a record for the largest IPO in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29.4 billion [7]. Group 2 - The urgency for the IPO is driven by the need for substantial funding for ambitious projects, including Mars colonization, lunar base construction, and a space-based AI data center [10][12]. - Analysts express concerns that the IPO may lead to the integration of Tesla and SpaceX, raising risks of related party transactions [12][13]. - Despite the potential for significant returns, there are worries about investor patience, as SpaceX remains a capital-intensive company focused on long-term projects [13][14].

来源：雪球 全球顶尖的对冲基金 AQR 最新发了一篇文章《Hold the Dip》，从标题就能看出，对是投资者常见的 "抄底 (Buy the Dip)" 行为的一个化用，兼反 对。在 AQR 看来，在下跌后加仓，无助于夏普比率的改善 —— 这一点 2021 年跌跌不休中买入中概股的投资者，应该是甚有同感。在 AQR 看 来，抄底，本质是在动量向下市场中做价值投资，注定生不逢时。相比之下，直接采用趋势跟踪来降低组合波动，效果更好。我让大模型对这篇文 章做了一个综述，与诸位分享。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 张翼轸 在华尔街的民间传说中，有一种古老而诱人的冲动，就像塞壬女妖的歌声一样，引诱着一代又一代的投资者。这种冲动在 2020 年新冠疫情引发的 市场剧震中达到了顶峰，随后在社交媒体的推波助澜下成为了一种近乎宗教般的信条。这就是 ——"抄底"（Buy the Dip，简称 BTD）。 想象一下：当你在屏幕前看到那根令人心惊肉跳的红色 K 线下坠时，你的大脑边缘系统会发出一声呐喊："打折了！快买！" 这种直 ...

以下文章来源于长线是金11 ，作者长线是金11 长线是金11 . 记录本人的投资心得，希望能对大家有所帮助 作者： 长线是金11 来源：雪球 有一位朋友，说价值投资不应局限于各种茅，也应该分析一下寒武纪、摩尔线程的价值。 于是我就以格雷厄姆曾经讲过的故事作了回应——有一个石油商死后上天堂的时候，圣彼得告诉他一个坏消息。 圣彼得说：你的确有资格进天堂，可是你也看到了，分配给石油商居住的地方已经客满了，我实在没有办法把你安插进去。" ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 下面是A股的半导体指数，我们不难发现大起大落的周期性色彩非常明显，低迷久了就会暴涨，一旦涨狠了，往往又会暴跌。也就是说关注并投 资"科技股"，也应该在行业极端不景气、不被人看好的时候介入，而不是行业高度景气、众人痴迷的时候去人云亦云。 那个石油商想了一会之后问圣彼得说："我可不可以跟那些住在那里的人讲一句话？"圣彼得想了想，让他说句话也无妨。那个石油商于是合起他的 双手成杯状，放在嘴边大喊："地狱里发现石油了！" 忽然之间，大门开了，所有的人蜂拥而出向地狱冲去。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of diversification and asset allocation in investment strategies, emphasizing that while pure equity indices like the CSI 300 may outperform in bull markets, a balanced portfolio is essential for long-term sustainability and risk management [5][6][10]. Group 1: Performance Comparison - The CSI 300 index has shown strong performance in the current bull market, outperforming many investors [5]. - In contrast, indices like the ChiNext and the communication index have experienced significant downturns, highlighting the risks of concentrated investments [5][6]. - The article argues that while pure equity assets can yield high returns, they also come with high volatility and long-term risks, necessitating a diversified approach [9][10]. Group 2: Risk Management - A diversified portfolio typically includes various asset classes such as bonds, dividends, and international investments, which serve to mitigate risks and reduce volatility [9]. - The article points out that the trade-off for lower volatility is a potential sacrifice in returns, making it normal for diversified portfolios to lag behind single equity indices during bull markets [10]. - The need for a balanced approach is underscored by the observation that many investors struggle to maintain their positions during market downturns, often leading to premature exits from the market [11][12]. Group 3: Psychological Factors - The article emphasizes that investment is not just a rational endeavor but also involves emotional factors, with many investors failing to stick to their strategies during market fluctuations [7][20]. - It highlights the importance of setting realistic return expectations and conducting stress tests to ensure that investors can endure market volatility [14]. - The discussion includes the notion that the greatest risk for long-term investors is not underperforming but rather being forced out of the market during critical moments [17]. Group 4: Long-term Strategy - The article advocates for a focus on the investment process rather than just the results, suggesting that a balanced portfolio can help ordinary investors navigate market challenges more effectively [15][16]. - It stresses that the true measure of investment success is the ability to remain invested and weather market fluctuations, rather than simply outperforming a benchmark like the CSI 300 [20][21]. - The article concludes by encouraging investors to reflect on their personal goals, risk tolerance, and investment duration to clarify their portfolio needs [21].

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 大草驴 来源：雪球 2025年12月 ， 全球金融市场迎来了一个历史性的转折点 。 美联储不仅如期降息0.25% ， 更在刚刚结束缩表的11月之后 ， 迅速掉头转向 ， 宣 布在30天内购债400亿美元 。 这一举措标志着继2008年次贷危机和2020年新冠疫情之后 ， 美联储历史上第三次大规模资产负债表扩张 （ 扩表 ） 正式拉开序幕 。 这不仅仅是 一次简单的货币政策调整 ， 更是一个明确的信号 ： 美国经济已再度步入 " 危机时刻 " 。 债务货币化 ： 唯一的 " 完美 " 解药 ？ 这次扩表的直接导火索 ， 是美国国债市场的供需失衡与债务利息的不可承受之重 。 下半年以来 ， 美债规模呈直线飙升态势 。 面对未来每年高达 2.5万亿至3万亿美元的新发国债规模 ， 以及高达1.5万亿美元的利息支出 ， 全球市场已显现出明显的 " 消化不良 " 。 尽管短期利率因降息有所回落 ， 但长端利率居高不下 ， 由于市场缺乏足够的接盘资金 ， 美债流动性面临枯竭风险 。 在这种背景 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent negative news from Broadcom and Oracle has reignited concerns about the AI bubble, leading to a significant sell-off in the tech sector, compounded by some Federal Reserve officials opposing the easing of monetary policy [1][8]. Market Performance - All three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Nasdaq down 1.69%, the S&P 500 down 1.07%, and the Dow Jones down 0.51% [2]. - The tech sector experienced widespread declines, with Broadcom falling over 11%, Micron Technology down more than 6%, and Nvidia down over 3% [5]. Company-Specific Developments - Broadcom reported Q4 FY2025 revenue of $18.02 billion, a 28% year-over-year increase, and adjusted EBITDA of $12.12 billion, up 34%, both exceeding market expectations. However, the company has a backlog of $73 billion in AI product orders, which disappointed the market [12][15]. - Broadcom's CEO noted that the strong performance was driven by growth in AI semiconductors and infrastructure software, with semiconductor revenue reaching $11.1 billion, a 35% increase, and AI semiconductor revenue at $6.5 billion, a 74% increase [15]. - Oracle has delayed the completion of data centers for OpenAI from 2027 to 2028 due to labor and material shortages, despite a $300 billion agreement to supply computing power for model training and inference [20][16]. Federal Reserve Commentary - Several Federal Reserve officials expressed opposition to interest rate cuts, emphasizing the need to maintain a slightly tight monetary policy to combat persistent inflation [21][24]. - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester indicated a preference for a more restrictive stance to continue applying pressure on inflation, while other officials also voted against recent rate cuts, citing ongoing economic momentum and high inflation [22][25].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the differentiation of quantitative funds and strategies, their performance in various market conditions, and the importance of understanding their underlying logic for effective asset allocation [3][27]. Group 1: Differentiation of Quantitative Funds - Quantitative funds can be categorized based on their sources of returns: those that earn both Beta and Alpha, and those that focus solely on Alpha through market-neutral strategies [6][8]. - A specific strategy called quantitative timing adjusts positions based on model calculations to capture timing Alpha, often combined with stock index CTA for a composite approach [8]. - The choice of benchmark is crucial for index-enhanced strategies, with common benchmarks including CSI 300, CSI 500, and others, each having distinct characteristics [9][10]. Group 2: Performance Analysis - Over the past five years, small and micro-cap indices have generally outperformed larger indices, attributed to their higher turnover and the presence of mispricing opportunities [12]. - Quantitative index-enhanced strategies have shown significant excess returns, especially when the underlying Beta is smaller, leading to better performance in volatile markets [13][14]. - The annualized volatility and maximum drawdown for quantitative strategies are generally lower compared to traditional indices, providing a more favorable investment experience [14][15]. Group 3: Effectiveness and Limitations of Quantitative Strategies - Quantitative strategies thrive in high-volatility environments where numerous trading opportunities exist, allowing for the capture of mispricing [18]. - Conversely, these strategies may fail in low-volatility markets where crowded trades lead to diminished excess returns and increased risk of significant drawdowns [19][21]. - The evolution of quantitative strategies is essential as market conditions change, requiring continuous adaptation to maintain effectiveness [23]. Group 4: Role of Quantitative Strategies in Asset Allocation - Quantitative strategies provide a distinct source of return and risk, complementing subjective strategies in a diversified portfolio [27]. - In aggressive portfolios, quantitative strategies can serve as more traceable and explainable positions, while in balanced allocations, they can enhance overall sharpness [28][29]. - The value of a multi-strategy approach lies in its ability to perform optimally across different market conditions, mitigating the risks associated with relying on a single strategy [31].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the pitfalls of having an excessive number of funds in an investment portfolio, likening it to running a supermarket, which can lead to false diversification and management difficulties [6][17]. Group 1: Reasons for Excessive Fund Holdings - Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) drives investors to buy into new concepts and themes, leading to an overwhelming number of funds [9]. - Misunderstanding the principle of diversification results in investors believing that holding more funds inherently reduces risk [11]. - Decision paralysis occurs when investors are overwhelmed by choices, leading them to buy multiple funds without a clear strategy [13]. Group 2: Problems with Excessive Fund Holdings - False Diversification: Holding many funds does not guarantee risk diversification, as many funds may share the same underlying assets [18]. - Management Overload: Monitoring numerous funds can be time-consuming and impractical, making it difficult to analyze performance and make informed decisions [22]. Group 3: Steps to Optimize Fund Holdings - Step 1: Define a portfolio structure based on individual risk tolerance and investment goals, including allocations to different types of funds [27][30][34]. - Step 2: Tag each fund according to its category to gain clarity on the portfolio composition [37]. - Step 3: Consolidate similar funds by evaluating them based on performance, drawdown history, fund size, fee structure, and manager experience [41][45][49]. Group 4: Tools and Recommendations - The article suggests using fund comparison tools available in various apps to facilitate the selection process and streamline decision-making [50]. - It introduces a three-part asset allocation tool that helps investors avoid common pitfalls by providing a structured framework for fund selection and management [65][66].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a recovery after an initial decline, with the ChiNext index rising over 1% during the session. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.57%, and the ChiNext index rose by 0.6% [1][2]. Trading Volume and Sector Performance - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 80 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. Over 3,200 stocks in the market saw gains [4]. - Sectors such as electric grid equipment, precious metals, and commercial aerospace experienced significant gains, while retail, Hainan, and port shipping sectors faced declines [4]. Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace concept continued to show strength, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit. Companies like Longzhou Co. and Huazhong Cable saw substantial increases, with Huazhong Cable achieving its second consecutive limit-up [13][16]. - Recent positive developments in the commercial aerospace industry include the successful launch of 15 low-orbit satellites using the Long March 6 rocket and the issuance of a development action plan by the National Space Administration [22][23]. Nuclear Fusion Sector - The nuclear fusion concept stocks experienced a resurgence, with companies like Tianli Composite and Snowman Group seeing significant price increases, with Tianli Composite rising over 20% [24][26]. - The International Energy Agency predicts that the global nuclear fusion market could approach $500 billion by 2030, indicating strong future growth potential [30]. Company-Specific Developments - Moer Thread, known as the "first domestic GPU stock," saw its share price drop significantly, falling nearly 11% to 838 yuan, with a market capitalization of 393.8 billion yuan. The company has indicated that its new products are still in the research phase and have not yet generated revenue [7][12]. - Moer Thread's stock price has been noted to have risen significantly compared to related indices, leading to concerns about potential short-term price corrections [12].

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 思哲与创富 来源：雪球 以下文章来源于思哲与创富 ，作者思哲 思哲与创富 . 全天候-永久投资策略投顾主理人，全球资产配置，为你做好家庭投资框架，穿越牛熊 但现在呢 ？ 金银比已经回落到了 68 ， 人话解释就是 ： 肉已经吃得差不多了 ， 剩下的只有骨头 。 作为左侧投资者 ， 金银比在80以上时 ， 用白银替换黄金是 " 高赔率 " 博弈 ； 但在68这个位置 ， 且黄金本身已经大涨的背景下 ， 再去追白银 ， 那是 " 低赔率+高波动 " 的无脑冲锋 。 二 、 被证伪的 " 工业叙事 " 这时或许很多人会搬出 " 工业属性 " 来辩护 ： " 新能源 、 AI都需要白银啊 ， 是工业需求驱动的牛市 ！ " 之前临时提了嘴，说白银这几天疯涨，白银期权隐含波动率飙到了40的高位。 这种单边上行且伴随极高波动率的行情 ， 再加上白银LOF狂飙 ， 吸引了大量散户进场申购套利 ， 说实话 ， 让我感觉 商品散户化的味道有点浓 了 。 如果你手里持有多头 ， 现在可能不是庆祝的时候 ...