↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 作者： 极简投资人 来源：雪球 一 、 我们都是投资中的傻瓜 投资是一个全世界的人都不得不参与的比赛 ， 但是这个比赛很残酷 ， 只有极少的人能够实实在在赚到钱 。 有一句话比较有意思 ， 如果你在牌桌上玩了一会 ， 没有看出来谁是傻瓜 ， 那么你就是那个傻瓜 。 对于大多数人而言 ， 我们都是傻瓜 。 如果你通过预测市场涨跌来进行投资 ， 那你就是在和世界范围内最聪明 、 最有耐心 、 资金最雄厚的人来对弈 ， 他们无论为在能力 ， 经验 ， 资源 ， 精力方面完全碾压你 ， 想从他们手中赚绝对收益或者超过收益是不可能的事情 。 想要投资赚钱 ， 必须要承认自己的弱小 ， 才能有所敬畏 ， 有所不为 。 二 、 能立于不败之地的资产配置方案 那么 ， 对于个人投资者 ， 想玩这个游戏还能立于不败之地吗 ， 达利欧给出的答案是可以 ， 就是全天候配置 。 每类资产长期看都是能挣到钱的 ， 但是中间的波动和回撤太大 ， 以至于让很多人拿不住 ， 赚不到钱 。 每种资产虽然波动大 ， 但是都会适应 某种市场环境 。 | | 增长 | 通胀 | | --- | --- | --- ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anxiety among investors in undervalued, high-dividend stocks due to continuous declines in stock prices, leading to doubts about the companies' fundamentals. This situation is contrasted with the rising technology stocks, indicating a significant capital migration towards tech, driven by macro narratives and profit effects, rendering individual fundamentals less relevant [3][4]. Group 1: Painful Roots - Investors adhering to traditional value investing are experiencing extreme discomfort as they watch AI and tech stocks soar while their stable, cash-flowing holdings underperform and even decline [4]. - The contrasting performance between tech stocks and traditional value stocks leads to feelings of loss and self-doubt among investors [4]. Group 2: Cognitive Stratification - The article outlines four cognitive levels of investors regarding market trends: 1. Those who cannot see the trend and remain immersed in value investing, potentially missing out on tech gains [8]. 2. Those who see the trend but are unwilling to act due to risk aversion or fear of high valuations, leading to missed opportunities [8]. 3. Early adopters who embrace the tech narrative and participate in the trend, becoming winners [8]. 4. Latecomers who, driven by fear of missing out, buy into tech stocks at high prices, often at the end of a rally [8]. Group 3: Key Decisions - The most dangerous strategy in the current market is hesitation, which can lead to poor investment choices [9]. - Investors must either embrace the trend early or choose not to participate based on their risk assessments, maintaining a calm mindset [10]. - Late adopters risk buying into a market that has already peaked, becoming the last buyers in a narrative that is losing momentum [11]. Group 4: Conclusion - The article emphasizes the importance of staying within one's cognitive circle and making clear investment choices, whether embracing trends or sticking to value investing [12][14]. - Investors should accept the potential for missing out on opportunities due to their cognitive boundaries while focusing on strategies that align with their understanding of the market [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of having a personal investment system to navigate market fluctuations and make informed decisions, rather than relying on external advice or luck [6][10][14]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Warren Buffett began reducing his holdings in Apple from Q4 2023, while George Soros increased his investment in the same stock during Q2 and Q3 of 2024, showcasing contrasting investment strategies [4][5]. - The differing decisions of Buffett and Soros stem from their unique investment philosophies: Buffett focuses on value investing and long-term holding, while Soros capitalizes on market momentum and the reflexivity principle [6][7][8]. Group 2: Importance of a Personal Investment System - A user’s experience illustrates the pitfalls of not having a personal investment system, as they missed out on gains during a bull market due to a lack of confidence and understanding of their investment decisions [10][12][14]. - Successful investors maintain a consistent investment system that aligns with their personal values and risk tolerance, which is crucial for long-term success [14]. Group 3: Asset Allocation as an Investment System - The article advocates for asset allocation as the most suitable investment system for ordinary investors, emphasizing the need for understanding the underlying investment philosophy and decision-making process [15][16]. - The "three-part method" of asset allocation is introduced, which includes determining what to buy, how much to invest based on risk tolerance, and when to buy and sell [17][18][20]. Group 4: Practical Application of Asset Allocation - The three-part method encourages diversification across various asset classes to mitigate risks and enhance overall returns, with a focus on long-term investment rather than timing the market [17][20]. - The method also includes a rebalancing feature, allowing investors to adjust their portfolio based on performance, which promotes disciplined investment practices [21].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of the ChiNext index, which has reached a three-year high, driven by significant movements in specific stocks and sectors, particularly in the gaming, AI applications, and solid-state battery industries. Group 1: Company Highlights - The stock of Upwind New Materials surged by 20%, reaching 132.1 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 53.3 billion CNY, marking it as the top performer in the A-share market this year with an astonishing annual increase of 1892% [3][6]. - Upwind New Materials underwent a significant ownership change, with Zhiyuan Robotics acquiring a 29.99% stake, making it the new controlling shareholder, and plans to further acquire 37% of the shares at a price of 7.78 CNY per share, requiring up to 1.16 billion CNY [6][7][8]. - The acquisition is seen as a strategic move to integrate the supply chain, focusing on the application of composite materials in lightweight robotic structures, rather than a shell listing [9]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The solid-state battery sector is gaining momentum, with companies like Ningde Times reaching a market cap of 1.79 trillion CNY, driven by advancements in solid-state battery technology and a recent conference discussing its future [10][13]. - The copper industry saw a rise in stock prices due to a fatal landslide at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine, which accounts for about 3% of global copper supply, leading to concerns over supply disruptions and supporting copper prices [15][18]. - The gaming sector is experiencing a resurgence, with several stocks hitting new highs following the approval of 145 domestic games and 11 imported games by the National Press and Publication Administration, reflecting a 25% year-on-year increase in game approvals [19][22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that since the "924 market" last year, the AH index has outperformed major global market indices [2][3] - The "924 market" has led to significant gains in the AH index, making it a leader among global indices [3] - As of September 22, 2024, the margin trading balance reached a new high of 24,157 billion, indicating strong market sentiment [7][8] Group 2 - The margin trading balance as a percentage of the A-share circulating market value is 2.55%, surpassing the previous high of 2.14% during the "924 market," but still below the historical peak of 4.73% in 2015 [8] - On September 18, 2024, the A-share daily trading volume exceeded 30 trillion, ranking as the fourth highest in A-share history, although still below the peak during the "924 market" [11][12] - The outlook for the market remains optimistic in the medium term, supported by domestic policy, asset scarcity, and the dollar interest rate cut cycle, suggesting that the current phase may still be early in the A-share market cycle [15]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed strong performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.8%, and the ChiNext Index up by 2.28% [2] - The total market turnover was 23,471 billion, a decrease of 1,713 billion compared to the previous day, with over 4,400 stocks rising [2] - Today marks the one-year anniversary of the "924 market," during which the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by over 40%, the Shenzhen Component Index by over 65%, and the ChiNext Index by over 108% [3] Company Spotlight: Tianpu Co., Ltd. - Tianpu Co., Ltd. has experienced a remarkable 15 consecutive trading limit increases, with a total rise of 317.72% since August 22 [4][7] - The company has been suspended three times during this period due to trading anomalies, with the stock being under close monitoring by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [8][9] - The recent surge is attributed to the announcement of a share transfer to AI chip developer Zhonghao Xinying, which will result in a change of control of the company [6][11] - Following the disclosure of the transaction, Tianpu Co., Ltd. resumed trading on August 22 and has since seen a cumulative increase of over 320% in its stock price [7] Semiconductor Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector has witnessed a strong rally, with several companies, including SMIC and Jiangfeng Electronics, hitting their daily limit up [14] - TSMC plans to increase prices for its 3nm and 2nm process nodes, with the price for the 2nm process expected to rise by at least 50% compared to the 3nm process, reflecting the high costs associated with advanced technology [16] - Samsung has also raised prices for memory and flash products, with DRAM prices increasing by up to 30% and NAND flash prices rising by 5% to 10% due to supply constraints and increased demand from cloud enterprises [16] Strategic Partnerships - Alibaba has announced a collaboration with NVIDIA to advance Physical AI, covering various aspects such as data synthesis, model training, and environment simulation [21] - Alibaba's stock surged by 8.91%, reaching a nearly four-year high, following the announcement of increased capital expenditure plans [18][21]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recognition of Dan Shu Tie Quan private fund, managed by Xueqiu Asset Management, as a "demonstration case for three-year stock strategy products" in the 10th China Securities Private Equity Yinghua Product Evaluation [1] Group 1: Yinghua Demonstration Case - The Yinghua demonstration case evaluation is organized by China Fund News, involving multi-stage screening based on quantitative indicators such as fund returns, scale, drawdown, and risk-adjusted returns, combined with qualitative assessments of investment strategies, styles, research systems, risk control processes, corporate governance, and reputation management [3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Dan Shu Tie Quan fund adopts a "value and growth" dual-driven strategy, aiming to navigate market cycles through flexible adjustments in portfolio structure [6][7] - The fund employs a "technology growth + low volatility dividend" barbell strategy, focusing on Hong Kong stocks while also covering A-shares and US stocks to achieve stable returns in varying market conditions [6][7] Group 3: Operational Philosophy - The fund emphasizes dynamic balance and strict adherence to valuation discipline, believing that "risk emerges from price increases, while value emerges from price declines" [8] - The strategy involves decisive portfolio adjustments, selling overvalued assets while holding onto stocks that have appreciated significantly but remain reasonably valued [9] Group 4: Industry Layout - The fund is adept at forward-looking industry layout, capturing opportunities from cyclical turning points, with a diversified portfolio across sectors such as utilities, energy, telecommunications, internet, and pharmaceuticals [10] - This balanced industry approach may limit short-term explosive growth but helps control risks and reduce errors, fostering confidence in achieving long-term compounding returns [10] Group 5: Market Perspective - The fund has a positive outlook on innovative pharmaceuticals, focusing on individual stock selection rather than sector trends, avoiding companies that rely solely on business collaborations or have weak financials, and prioritizing financially sound companies with profit potential in the next two to three years [11] - In a market characterized by speculative behavior, the fund remains committed to fundamental performance, seeking reasonably valued companies amid a structurally divided market [12] Group 6: Company Overview - Xueqiu Asset Management positions itself as a practitioner of cutting-edge asset allocation theories, adhering to values of "thick snow and long slopes, achieving customer success, and strict risk control," aiming to create sustainable investment returns independent of market conditions [14] - Since 2015, the company has surpassed a total management scale of 10 billion, with its core strategies ranking among the top in its category [14] Group 7: Awards and Recognition - The company has received numerous accolades, including the 2025 "Potential Dragon Cup" for outstanding private fund managers and various strategy awards in 2024 and 2025, reflecting its strong performance and industry recognition [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the optimistic sentiment in the market driven by favorable news in the semiconductor sector and expectations from a meeting scheduled at 3 PM on Monday, highlighting the performance of bank stocks and the overall market dynamics [3][4]. Market Performance - Bank stocks showed early signs of upward movement but faced downward pressure shortly after the market opened. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated, eventually closing up 0.22% after a brief decline [4]. - Small-cap stocks, such as those in the CSI 1000 index, experienced significant gains, reaching new highs in the last hour of trading [6]. Sector Performance - The semiconductor and communication sectors performed well, with notable contributions from robotics and battery industries. However, the photovoltaic industry showed weakness [8]. - Specific sector performance data includes: - Sci-tech chips: 62.77% year-to-date increase - Consumer electronics: 52.99% year-to-date increase - Sci-tech AI: 63.77% year-to-date increase - CSI All Index Semiconductor: 45.71% year-to-date increase [9]. Economic Indicators - The latest data from the central bank indicates that household deposits amount to 161.02 trillion yuan, with a market value ratio of 1.56 compared to the total market capitalization of 103.29 billion yuan at the end of August [14]. - The rolling 12-month increase in household deposits has stabilized around 14 trillion yuan, significantly lower than the nearly 24 trillion yuan at the beginning of 2023 [16]. Market Cycle Insights - Analyst Zhang Xia suggests that the Chinese economy and stock market follow a five-year cycle, predicting a "main rising wave" phase in the next 2-3 years post-2024 [17]. - The current market is considered to be in the second phase of a bull market, characterized by self-reinforcing incremental capital [21][22]. - Zhang emphasizes that the transition to a low-valuation, pro-cyclical market is likely to occur in the following year, driven by economic improvements and inflation [23].

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise of A-shares above 3800 points presents an opportunity for investors to reassess their portfolios, emphasizing the importance of a diversified asset allocation strategy to navigate market volatility and potential downturns [4][6]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Fund Performance - Despite the current bullish market sentiment and many funds reaching historical highs, a significant number of investors redeemed their holdings before the market's upswing, leading to missed opportunities [6]. - Data indicates that from 2022 to 2024, the net subscription scale of equity funds has continuously shrunk, with net redemptions peaking in the first quarter and fourth quarter of 2024 [6]. Group 2: Volatility and Historical Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has a compound annual growth rate of 11.6% since its inception in 1990, but it also has an annualized volatility of 43.71%, which is significantly higher than many global indices [10][11]. - Since 2014, the annual maximum drawdown for the CSI 300 and equity fund indices has exceeded 15% in about 60% of the years, highlighting the challenges of long-term holding for domestic investors [12]. Group 3: Timing Strategies and Their Challenges - The desire to time the market is common among investors, but the reality often leads to missed opportunities, as evidenced by the significant drop in annualized returns when missing the best-performing days [16][18]. - From 2014 to the present, maintaining a position in equity funds yields an average annual return of around 15%, but missing the top-performing days drastically reduces this return [16][18]. Group 4: Asset Allocation Strategies - Given the high volatility of the A-share market, a diversified asset allocation strategy is recommended to mitigate risks and enhance returns [22]. - Different asset classes exhibit varying risk-return characteristics, and combining low or negatively correlated assets can help reduce overall portfolio volatility [22][24]. Group 5: Simulation of Asset Allocation - Simulations show that adjusting the asset allocation to include dividend stocks and global indices can lead to smoother net value curves and reduced drawdowns during market downturns [30][32]. - Incorporating bonds into the asset mix further stabilizes the portfolio, increasing the likelihood of maintaining positions during market fluctuations [35][37]. Group 6: Importance of Diversification - Diversification in asset allocation is emphasized as a crucial strategy for investors, with notable figures in finance advocating for a mix of uncorrelated return streams to enhance portfolio performance [38].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant improvement in M1 and M2 monetary aggregates in China, attributing this to the return of cross-border funds rather than traditional economic factors [3][10][39]. Group 1: Economic Context - M1 and M2 have maintained a high growth rate, with the M2-M1 spread continuing to narrow [3]. - Many institutions struggle to understand the substantial improvement in M1 and M2 due to their traditional economic perspectives [6][8][9]. Group 2: Cross-Border Fund Flows - China is characterized as an open economy, allowing for significant cross-border capital flows, which can lead to misunderstandings about domestic monetary conditions [11][12]. - The article explains that when interest rates are lowered in China while they are raised in the U.S., it can lead to capital outflows, impacting M1 and M2 negatively [16][19]. Group 3: Impact of Interest Rate Changes - The movement of deposits between banks in China and the U.S. is illustrated, showing how a decrease in Chinese interest rates can lead to a contraction in domestic bank balance sheets [21][23]. - The article emphasizes that the recent return of funds to China is linked to uncertainties created by U.S. policies and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts [35][36]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The return of funds is expected to positively impact the A-share and Hong Kong markets, which have been under pressure due to real estate risks [52][54]. - The article suggests that the current market dynamics indicate that the return of capital will continue, potentially leading to significant market recoveries [55][58]. Group 5: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The article notes that the core CPI is gradually rising, indicating a potential shift in inflation dynamics as capital returns to China [61][64]. - Traditional financial data may not accurately reflect the current economic conditions due to the unique nature of the capital flows [66].