Group 1: Market Outlook - The overall market outlook remains optimistic despite external uncertainties, with the belief that the upward trend in the Chinese stock market is not yet over [1][2] - Investors' understanding of the economic and international situation is comprehensive, and new technologies and consumer opportunities are emerging, indicating a structural positive shift [1][2] - The reduction in risk-free interest rates has lowered the opportunity cost of investing in stocks, marking a historical turning point for long-term and retail investors [1][3] Group 2: Economic and Investment Trends - Economic expectations are undergoing a positive transformation, which is not a short-term phenomenon, with the stock market's expectations reflecting a range rather than a single point [2] - The focus on supply-side innovation is driving demand creation, with capital expenditure in both new and old economies expected to recover and enter a phase of differentiated growth by 2025 [2][3] Group 3: Currency and Asset Valuation - The stability of the RMB is expected to play a significant role in the revaluation of Chinese assets, as the global economic order is being reshaped and the dollar's credibility is declining [3] - The decline in discount rates is leading to a market environment where emerging technologies are the main focus, with financial sectors and high-dividend stocks benefiting from the lower risk-free rates [3] Group 4: Sector Recommendations - Recommendations include financial and high-dividend sectors such as banks, brokers, and highway operators, which are expected to benefit from the domestic decline in risk-free rates [3] - Emerging technology sectors, particularly in internet, media, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military technology, are highlighted as key growth areas due to intensified competition between China and the US [3] - The cyclical consumption sector is also expected to see a revival, with a focus on domestic supply-demand tightness in cyclical products and new consumption driven by supply [3] Group 5: AI and Market Dynamics - The current macroeconomic environment and industry trends are reminiscent of the 2012-2014 period, where technology drove market performance, particularly in Hong Kong stocks [5][6] - The rapid development of AI applications is expected to accelerate commercialization, with Chinese companies poised to benefit significantly from this trend [6][7] - Hong Kong's tech sector, particularly in software applications, is expected to outperform due to its higher market capitalization in this area compared to A-shares [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of preemptive export orders on future export performance, suggesting that while there may be a decline in export growth, the overall resilience of Chinese manufacturing remains intact due to limited overdraw and significant contributions from incremental demand [1]. Group 1: Export Trends and Tariff Impact - The surge in exports began in November 2024, coinciding with Trump's election victory, leading to a significant increase in exports to the U.S. [2] - In February 2025, a decrease in export activity was noted due to lower-than-expected tariffs on fentanyl, resulting in a notable drop in export growth [2] - By March 2025, renewed expectations of large-scale tariffs led to another wave of preemptive exports [2][3] Group 2: Measurement of Export Overdraw - The analysis of export growth from November 2024 to April 2025 indicates that approximately half of the elevated export growth was due to preemptive orders, while the other half stemmed from genuine incremental orders [4] - A simulation of the scenario post-preemptive orders suggests that while there may be a significant drop in export growth for overdrawn orders, exports to other regions are expected to remain stable [4] Group 3: Future Export Growth Outlook - The overall export growth rate is expected to decline in the second half of the year, but the trend remains stable, with potential impacts from a slowdown in the U.S. economy [5] - The imposition of a 10% tariff by the U.S. could lead to a maximum decline of 2% in the export growth rate, suggesting a baseline export growth rate of around 2.7% for the third quarter [5]

Core Viewpoint - The acceleration of GW and G60 satellite constellations will continuously release demand for ground stations, benefiting not only hardware providers but also satellite control services, indicating a rapid development phase for the industry [1]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The domestic low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellation is accelerating, leading to an increase in the prosperity of the ground station industry, which is rated as "overweight" [1]. - The integration of space and ground is a typical feature of 6G communication, with ground stations playing a crucial role in data landing, protocol conversion, and network management [1]. - The construction of 28,000 LEO satellites will create substantial demand for ground stations, making the pace and scale of ground station construction a key indicator of the commercialization process of satellite constellations [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - A complete ground network is essential for the commercial success of satellite constellations, as demonstrated by SpaceX's Starlink program, which synchronizes its network construction with hundreds of ground stations [2]. - The launch of the first batch of ground station antenna systems for the G60 constellation in March 2025, with a total value of several hundred million yuan, marks a significant step in China's LEO satellite internet construction [2]. - The emergence of the "Ground Station as a Service" (GSaaS) model is driven by cost pressures and the pursuit of efficiency, allowing third-party companies to invest in and operate ground stations, thus reducing overall industry construction costs [2]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Companies that are deeply involved in the early-stage verification and standard-setting of GW and G60 constellations, have secured core orders in bidding, possess integrated delivery capabilities, and are forward-looking in GSaaS operations are expected to benefit significantly from the current industry trends [3]. - These companies are likely to build a "technology + customer" moat, continuously delivering performance amid the upcoming order release trend and benefiting from both industry explosion and structural optimization [3].

风险提示： 1 ）低空经济产业政策不及预期； 2 ）低空经济技术研发进程不及预期； 3 ）低空经济商业 化应用场景落地不及预期。 文章来源 本文摘自：2025年6月12日发布的 沃飞长空与卧龙电驱成立合资公司，产业协同加速——低空经济热点点评 肖群稀 ，资格证书编号： S0880522120001 张 越 ，资格证书编号： S0880522090004 报告导读： 沃飞长空与卧龙电驱成立合资公司，聚焦电推进动力系统开发，低空经济商业 化有望进一步提速，动力系统环节有望受益。 投资建议 ： 动力系统与 eVTOL 整机企业积极合作，有望加速核心技术研发及成果转化，进一步强化低 空产业链协同效应， 产业化进程有望进一步提速。 沃飞长空与卧龙电驱成立合资公司，聚焦电推进动力系统开发 。 2025 年 6 月 11 日，卧龙电驱与沃飞 长空签订合资协议，成立合资公司"浙江龙飞电驱科技有限公司"，合资公司将先重点开发适用于倾转旋翼 eVTOL 的高性能电机及电驱系统，针对该构型在垂直起降阶段的高推力需求、巡航状态的高效能转换痛 点，推出兼具强劲动力与适航级可靠性的核心产品，同时通过技术开发与产业化落地，提供适用于 75 ...

Core Insights - The concentration of short positions in TS contracts is driven by significant entry of arbitrage funds, with expectations that the basis will initially widen slightly before stabilizing [1][3] - The current low interest rate environment, cautious sentiment in the bond market, and high Internal Rate of Return (IRR) are key factors influencing this phenomenon [1] Summary by Sections Historical Context - The concentration of short positions in TS contracts was observed from early 2024 to May 2024, driven by the entry of arbitrage funds and a surge in bullish sentiment [2] - The basis of TS contracts dropped to -0.24 yuan, while IRR peaked at 3.4%, attracting more arbitrage funds [2] Current Market Analysis - As of now, the short position held by CITIC Futures has peaked and is beginning to decline, indicating a potential for the basis to widen slightly before stabilizing [3] - The influx of arbitrage funds has led to a noticeable recovery in the current TS contract basis, although the incremental entry of these funds is expected to be limited [3]

Group 1 - The global industrial chain, monetary system, and asset analysis framework are undergoing reconstruction due to diminishing trust among countries, with gold potentially entering a long-term bull market driven by de-dollarization and ongoing central bank purchases [3] - Domestic economic demand remains to be boosted, and policies are expected to maintain a gradually positive tone [3] - Inflation is hovering at low levels, with the key to its rebound lying internally rather than externally, suggesting that policy efforts may become more aggressive in the second half of the year [5] Group 2 - May export growth has slowed, not due to previous over-shipments or temporary fluctuations, but rather due to the peak and subsequent decline of tariff expectations, indicating a resilient export sector despite a lower central tendency [9] - The high-interest rate environment caused by recent dollar credit discounts has led to a notable slowdown in private credit expansion in the U.S., creating a fragile balance that requires careful policy management to avoid potential debt crises [11] - The market for human-robot bearings is expected to see significant growth due to the development of humanoid robots, with domestic replacement opportunities becoming increasingly prominent [27] Group 3 - The recent trading heat in Chinese assets has increased, with a notable inflow of financing funds and new equity fund issuances exceeding 10 billion [13] - The Hong Kong stock market is emerging as a key battleground in the current bull market, driven by the scarcity of attractive assets and supportive domestic policies [16] - The expansion of ETFs is beneficial for credit bonds, with significant differences in duration and component concentration between Shanghai and Shenzhen market indices [20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the pressure on newly issued and existing equity fund shares in May, with institutional funds flowing into bond funds and individual funds increasing in index products [1][2][3] Group 2 - As of May 2025, the total net asset value of public funds in the market reached 32.01 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 0.29%. The total fund shares stood at 29.58 trillion, showing a slight decrease of 0.01% [1] - The total share of equity funds was 6.33 trillion, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.34%, while bond funds totaled 9.1 billion shares, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [1] - In May 2025, the newly issued funds amounted to 657.59 billion shares, a decrease of 28.68% compared to the previous month, with equity funds at 295.38 billion shares, down 39.45% [1] - The retention rate of existing funds in the market was 99.77%, with equity funds at 99.19% and bond funds at 100% [1] Group 3 - Institutional funds are increasingly flowing into bond funds, including long-term pure bond, mixed secondary bond, and bond index funds, while individual investors are favoring index products [2] - Low-risk investors are still investing in various fixed-income products such as insurance and bank wealth management, leading to an increase in institutional fund sizes [2] Group 4 - The new public fund regulations released on May 7 aim to promote high-quality development in the industry, focusing on product, sales channels, and operational governance, with a core emphasis on assessment mechanisms [3] - The first batch of floating management fee rate funds has been approved for issuance, with significant subscription sizes indicating strong market interest [3] - AI applications and innovations are being introduced, such as the "Help You See" service by Huatai Fund, which aims to enhance investor decision-making [3]

特斯拉 Optimus 机器人项目主管离职，自动驾驶负责人接任。 美东时间 6 月 6 日，特斯拉擎天柱人形 机器人 Optimus 项目负责人米兰·科瓦奇宣布了自己即将离职的消息。科瓦奇 2016 年加入特斯拉，在特 斯拉工作了近 10 年，其中大部分时间都是在 Autopilot 团队担任高级工程师。他于 2022 年被任命领导 Optimus 的开发，并于 2024 年底成为负责该项目的副总裁。特斯拉人工智能软件部门副总裁 Ashok Elluswamy 将接管 Optimus 项目。 报告导读： 马斯克公布了特斯拉的自动驾驶出租车服务 Robotaxi 的首次公开试运营日 期，暂定为 6 月 22 日，我们认为 Robotaxi 的运营有望对特斯拉产业链带来重要业绩增 量。 我们认为，特斯拉是引领 Robotaxi 和人形机器人产业商业化进程的全球龙头企业，随着特斯拉 Robotaxi 正式开启公开试运营，相关产业正在进入由 0 到 1 的拐点阶段，特斯拉 Robotaxi 和人形机器 人的放量有望为相关产业链带来重要的业绩增量，需重点关注产业链上具备确定性的优质公司。 马斯克宣布特斯拉 Robota ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance of various domestic asset allocation strategies in May 2025, indicating a mixed performance across different strategies and asset classes, with a notable focus on the risk parity strategy achieving the highest year-to-date return of 1.73% [1][3]. Group 1: Asset Strategy Performance - Domestic Asset BL Strategy 1 recorded a May return of -0.22% and a year-to-date return of 0.96% [1][3]. - Domestic Asset BL Strategy 2 had a May return of -0.1% and a year-to-date return of 1.05% [1][3]. - The Domestic Asset Risk Parity Strategy achieved a May return of 0.29% and a year-to-date return of 1.73% [1][3]. - The Macro Factor-Based Asset Allocation Strategy reported a May return of 0.27% and a year-to-date return of 1.45% [1][3]. Group 2: Major Asset Trends - In May 2025, domestic equity assets performed well, with the Hang Seng Index, CSI 300, and others showing significant gains, while gold experienced a pullback [2]. - The Hang Seng Index rose by 3.96%, CSI 300 by 1.85%, and the total wealth index of corporate bonds by 0.41% [2]. - The South China Commodity Index and SHFE gold saw declines of 2.4% and 1.39%, respectively [2]. - Correlation analysis indicated a -36.97% correlation between CSI 300 and the total wealth index of government bonds over the past year [2]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Insights - As of the end of May 2025, the manufacturing PMI was at 49.5%, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment [4]. - The PPI for April showed a year-on-year decline of -2.7%, with expectations for May at -3.17%, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures [4]. - The central bank conducted a MLF operation of 550 billion yuan, net injecting 400 billion yuan to support special bond issuance [4]. - The social financing scale stood at 424 trillion yuan at the end of April 2025, reflecting the credit environment [4].

文章来源 报告导读： 5 月美国 CPI 环比回落，增速不及预期，核心商品中仅个别分项存在价格上 涨，整体尚未体现出关税影响。我们认为，在库存缓冲、关税政策与消费需求不确定性影 响下，企业提价或存在一定时滞， 6 月通胀数据仍存在反弹压力。在就业尚稳，通胀不确 定性仍存的情况下，美联储短期仍难以降息。 2025 年 5 月美国通胀环比回落，增速不及预期。 5 月美国 CPI 同比 2.4% （前值 2.3% ，市场预期 2.4% ），核心 CPI 同比维持在 2.8% （市场预期 2.9% ）。环比来看， 5 月 CPI 环比 0.1% ，前值 0.2% ，略低于市场预期（ 0.2% ）；核心 CPI 环比 0.1% ，前值 0.2% ，市场预期 0.3% 。 具体来看， 5 月除食品通胀环比有所回升外，能源、核心商品与核心服务通胀环比均较 4 月有所回落。 其中，能源是拖累 CPI 环比的核心分项。 核心商品方面， 5 月尚未体现出明显的通胀回升压力，仅在个 别分项通胀涨幅相对明显，例如家具（窗帘地毯）、汽车零件、玩具、电脑、药品等。而服装、新车、酒 精饮料等通胀环比增速均有回落； 核心服务方面 ， 租金、 ...