Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariffs and high base effects on China's export growth in May, highlighting the resilience of foreign trade amid ongoing US-China trade negotiations and the potential for valuation recovery in companies with high exposure to the US market [1][2]. Group 1: Export Data Analysis - In May, China's export growth slowed to 4.8% with a month-on-month decline of 3.3 percentage points, while imports fell by 3.4% [1]. - The decline in exports to the US was significant at -35%, while exports to the EU increased by 12% [1]. - Exports to Africa, ASEAN, and Latin America showed growth rates of 33%, 15%, and 2% respectively, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [1]. Group 2: Trade Negotiations - A new round of US-China trade talks took place in London on June 9, with expectations for progress on tariff reductions and easing of technical restrictions [2]. - Prior discussions between President Xi Jinping and President Trump emphasized the importance of implementing the Geneva consensus and continuing negotiations [2]. Group 3: Cross-Border E-commerce Outlook - The article anticipates that Q2 sales data for cross-border e-commerce companies will show differentiation due to recent tariff reductions and upcoming promotional events like Amazon's Prime Day [3]. - Companies with a high proportion of US business are expected to see steady recovery in sales, while some may face challenges due to price increases and rising shipping costs [3]. - Long-term strategies for companies include multi-regional and multi-channel approaches, with leading firms focusing on brand enhancement and AI applications to strengthen risk resilience [3].

Group 1 - The relationship between new and second-hand housing markets is currently under discussion, particularly regarding the smoothness of the replacement chain and the impact of the launch of fourth-generation residential properties on the second-hand market [1] - The phenomenon of second-hand housing prices being lower than new housing prices in some hot cities raises questions about the divergence in price trends between the two markets and whether this indicates a potential crisis in the second-hand market [1] - In Shanghai's land market during the first quarter of this year, several high-premium plots were observed, prompting an analysis of common characteristics among these plots and their potential impact on the new housing market [1] Group 2 - The luxury housing market in Shanghai remains robust, leading to inquiries about the sustainability of this trend and whether future urban renewal in core areas will reignite the luxury market [1] - Predictions regarding the future price trends in Shanghai's housing market suggest potential differentiation among various segments, including first-time buyers, upgrades, and different urban rings [1] - Key factors influencing homebuyers' decisions are identified, with a focus on whether first-time buyers should consider purchasing during a price decline and how to assess if prices in their city have reached a bottom [1]

报告导读： 随着近期美元信用折价导致的高利率环境持续，美国私人信贷扩张明显降温， 美元来到一个脆弱边界的紧平衡，美国当局需要在远景目标（长期贸易回流）与短期风险 （潜在债务危机）之间重新平衡，一旦政策端对于基本面恶化的响应速度不及时、态度不 彻底，那么美元资产的尾部风险不容忽视。反之亦然。 过去模式：高增长、高利率 — > 强美元 逻辑上，一国汇率强弱理应取决于 全球资本对该国货币的持有意愿（资本净流入） 。 但我们拆解美国的 国际收支平衡表发现，全球资本净流入与美元指数的相关性并不强，本质在于美国的资本净流入与贸易净 流出是镜像关系（孪生赤字）， 很难说资本净流入是由于对于美元资产吸引力更强，还是贸易竞争力更 差； 进一步看结构，我们发现美元指数与 股权直接投资 的净流入相关性最强，最近几年与 债权证券投资 的净 流入相关性更强。说明 美元强弱本质上取决于美国投资回报率预期（高息美元、增长预期） 。 美元信用的内在支撑：私人部门财富扩张 美国经济的本质驱动是 美国私人部门资产负债表的良性扩张，带来净资产的上涨。 而净资产的上涨进一 步抬升增长预期和利率水平，带来全球资本的持续涌入。 因此我们发现，美国居民净 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic wholesale sales of passenger cars in May showed a month-on-month and year-on-year increase, with a notable decrease in inventory by 110,000 units, and strong export performance. It is recommended to focus on companies that are in a new car cycle and are leading in intelligence [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In May, the wholesale sales of passenger cars reached 2.31 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.8% and a month-on-month increase of 5.5% [2]. - Cumulative wholesale sales from January to May totaled 10.784 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.5% [2]. Group 2: Inventory Trends - The overall inventory of passenger car manufacturers decreased by 110,000 units in May, compared to a decrease of 90,000 units in the same month last year [2]. - The cumulative inventory for the industry from January to May remained flat compared to the same period last year, marking a change from the continuous inventory reduction seen in the past two years [2]. Group 3: New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Insights - In May, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 52.6%, an increase of 8.0 percentage points year-on-year and 0.9 percentage points month-on-month [3]. - The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in May were 1.216 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 33.0% and a month-on-month increase of 7.0% [3]. - Cumulative sales of new energy vehicles from January to May reached 5.2 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 40.0% [3]. Group 4: Export Performance - In May, the total export of passenger vehicles (including complete vehicles and CKD) was 448,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.5% and a month-on-month increase of 6.0% [3]. - Cumulative exports from January to May reached 2 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [3]. - The export of new energy passenger vehicles was 200,000 units in May, showing a year-on-year increase of 80.9% and accounting for 44.6% of total passenger vehicle exports, an increase of 16.6 percentage points year-on-year [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the integration of vocational and general education, with a strong demand for high school education supported by government policies and a projected population dividend lasting for 7-8 years [1][2] - The high school education sector is expected to benefit from policy support aimed at expanding educational resources and promoting vocational education integration, as outlined in the 2025 Education Strong Nation Construction Plan [2][3] - The proportion of private high schools is increasing, with significant growth potential in the central and western regions of China, where vocational and general education integration is more pronounced [3] Group 2 - In 2023, the number of high school students reached 28.04 million, with private high school enrollment accounting for 20% of the total, up from 10% in 2011, indicating a growing trend in private education [3] - The government is actively promoting the integration of vocational and general education, as evidenced by the removal of "vocational-general separation" from the revised Vocational Education Law in 2022 [2] - The demand for high school education remains robust, with the number of candidates for the college entrance examination reaching 12.91 million in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 8%, reflecting a rising participation rate among the eligible population [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the easing of trade tensions, the private sector's risk appetite has rebounded and then declined, with limited progress in balance sheet repair, leading to persistently low inflation. The key to inflation recovery lies internally rather than externally, with more proactive policy measures expected in the second half of the year [1]. CPI Analysis - CPI remained low in May, with seasonal declines in food prices and input pressures from international oil prices. Service prices showed resilience, leading to an expanding gap between CPI and core CPI year-on-year [1][2]. - The transportation and communication prices decreased due to national subsidies and falling oil prices, which significantly impacted May's CPI. Core CPI remained flat at 0.0% month-on-month, with a slight year-on-year increase to 0.6% [3]. PPI Analysis - PPI recovery faced multiple constraints, including a decline in international commodity prices affecting domestic industries, particularly in oil and gas extraction, which saw significant month-on-month price drops [4][5]. - Adverse weather conditions impacted the peak season for coal demand, leading to a continued weakening trend in extraction prices, with construction materials like cement and rebar also showing notable declines in May [5]. - A slight month-on-month decline in exports exacerbated supply-demand mismatches, with tariff impacts on exports becoming more apparent. The easing of trade tensions has not significantly aided the repair of private sector balance sheets, as evidenced by a drop in risk appetite indicators [6].

Core Viewpoint - The decline in export growth in May 2025 is attributed to the peak and subsequent decline of tariff expectations, revealing the impact of tariffs on exports. However, exports still show resilience despite the expected drop in the export central tendency [1][5]. Overall Summary - In May 2025, China's export growth rate in USD terms was 4.8% (previously 8.1%), while import growth was -3.4% (previously -0.2%). Month-on-month, exports decreased by 0.2% compared to April, and imports fell by 3.0%, both below seasonal levels [2]. Trade Balance - The trade surplus slightly increased in May 2025 [3]. Export Structure - By country, the export growth rates to the US, ASEAN, and Latin America saw significant declines, recording -34.5%, 14.8%, and 2.3% respectively. In contrast, exports to other regions increased to 11.8% (previously 10.4%). In terms of product structure, agricultural products and labor-intensive goods saw a notable decline, while machinery and raw materials remained relatively stable. Notably, exports of integrated circuits and ships in the machinery sector continued to perform strongly, with a resurgence in automotive exports [4]. Divergent Interpretations of Export Data - Optimists argue that the strong performance in April (8.1%) despite high tariffs suggests a rebound in May following the tariff easing on May 14, predicting a significant export rebound in June. Conversely, pessimists believe that the resilience in April was due to preemptive exports before the tariff implementation, and the decline in May indicates a depletion of future orders. The article concludes that the decline in May's export growth is a result of the cooling of preemptive exports and the impact of tariffs, but previous preemptive and transshipment trade has not significantly depleted future orders. Looking ahead, short-term indicators suggest that June's export growth may be supported by the easing of tariffs, while a normalization of exports is expected, leading to a gradual decline in export momentum without a drastic drop [5].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the continuous recommendation of innovative drugs and an increased focus on the Pharma sector, highlighting the high demand for innovative drugs and the potential for revaluation of the Pharma sector [1][2] - Recent business development (BD) activities indicate a strong demand from multinational pharmaceutical companies for high-quality innovative drug assets from China, suggesting a robust logic for innovative drugs going global [2] - The performance of the A-share pharmaceutical sector in the first week of June 2025 was on par with the overall market, with specific sub-sectors like chemical raw materials and chemical preparations showing relatively better performance [3] Group 2 - In the first week of June 2025, the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector outperformed the market, while the US pharmaceutical sector performed similarly to the market [3] - The current relative premium rate of the pharmaceutical sector compared to the entire A-share market is at a normal level of 86.84% as of June 6, 2025 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant growth potential in the stablecoin market following the implementation of the "Stablecoin Regulation" in Hong Kong, which is set to take effect on August 1 [2] - The stablecoin market has seen a substantial increase since 2020, with a projected market capitalization growth of nearly $200 billion from 2020 to 2025, reaching approximately $245 billion by the end of May 2025 [2] - The "Stablecoin Regulation" aims to create a robust regulatory environment for virtual asset activities in Hong Kong, reinforcing its status as an international financial center [2] Group 2 - The "Government Data Sharing Regulation" has been announced, which will take effect on August 1, 2025, and aims to enhance the efficiency and security of government data sharing [3] - This regulation establishes a clear management system and mechanisms for data sharing, addressing the issue of "data silos" and improving data supply efficiency [3] - The introduction of this regulation is expected to bring significant benefits to the government data market by promoting orderly and efficient data utilization [3] Group 3 - The upcoming release of GPT-5 is anticipated to surpass the performance of existing models like GPT-4, with a target launch in July 2025 [4] - OpenAI representatives have indicated that while the development costs are currently unclear, they aim to ensure the model's quality over rushing the release [4] - The introduction of GPT-5 is expected to further stimulate the development of the AI industry and the practical application of AI technologies [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article systematically categorizes A-share listed companies into four lifecycle stages: startup, growth, maturity, and consolidation, based on cash flow, and constructs corresponding optimal portfolios for each stage, achieving annualized excess returns of 14.0%, 15.0%, and 19.5% relative to benchmark indices since 2016 [1][3]. Group 1: Lifecycle Stages Characteristics - Startup companies typically have smaller market capitalizations, unstable profitability, and low dividend yields, but invest heavily in R&D [1]. - Growth companies show improved profitability with a balanced exposure across various factors [1]. - Mature companies are characterized by large market capitalizations, stable profitability, high dividend payout ratios, and healthier capital structures with lower debt ratios [1]. - Consolidation companies experience reduced scale, poorer profitability, lower dividend yields, and higher leverage with significant debt repayment pressures [1]. Group 2: Performance and Risk Characteristics - The buy-and-hold combinations across different lifecycle stages exhibit varying risk-return profiles, with mature companies showing the most stability and highest cumulative returns over time [2]. - Growth stock portfolios perform closely to market indices, while startup and consolidation stock portfolios exhibit higher volatility and lower returns [2]. - Factor performance varies across lifecycle stages, with low volatility and low turnover rates performing best in the riskier startup and consolidation phases [2]. Group 3: Optimal Portfolio Construction - The company constructs optimal portfolios for each lifecycle stage considering investment logic, factor effectiveness, and correlations, with the mature portfolio demonstrating the highest stability and an annualized return of 16.9% since 2016 [2]. - The mature portfolio has shown positive excess returns relative to common broad indices like the CSI All Share Index, CSI 300, and CSI 800 in most years, except for a 12% decline in 2018 [2].