重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 ...

⾯对下半年⼤国博弈加剧、全球产业链重构的复杂环境，投资者如何精准锚定⽅ 向，把握财富机遇？ 国泰海通2025中期策略会将于6⽉4⽇启幕，当⽇13:30⾄17:00，君弘推出特别直播带 您现场直击！ 全球视野解析市场脉动，专业领航发掘投资价值，共同迈向"转型⽜"。 △欢迎扫描二维码预约视频直播 精彩内容 君弘特别直播现场直击 策略会现场实况大公开 首席访谈专区实时陪伴守候 首席投顾&分析师&资产配置官 轮番上阵 展望市场走势、热门板块机会， 解读主题投资、资产配置思路， 专业护航投资 君弘视频直播带您现场直击国泰海通2025年中期策略会，投资者可以跟随镜头聆听宏观、策 略、新股研究、量化投资、固定收益研究等多位首席分析师演讲，获取最新出炉的下半年投资 观点。 02 亮点二：深度解读，"首席对话" 深度解析 理财方案 新鲜出炉的A股研究观点如何适配个人投资？普通投资者该如何调整决策，提高投资胜率？除了获取首 席分析师演讲中的核心观点，本次君弘中期策略会直播特设的"首席对话"访谈专区，将由首席投顾、首 席宏观&策略配置官等与投资者在线对话，深度解析下半年A股投资观点、大类资产配置思路、主题赛 道的投资逻辑，助力投资 ...

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Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the recovery of leading brands in the home appliance industry, which is driving industry concentration and a shift in pricing strategies as companies aim to regain market share by 2025 [1] - Domestic sales are experiencing seasonal price reductions, while leading brands are changing their strategic direction to focus on structural improvements rather than just market share [1] - The external market is benefiting from brands expanding overseas and a fragmented production capacity, which enhances supply chain resilience and adaptability to changing trade policies [1] Group 2 - New consumer trends are emerging, including high aesthetic product designs that fulfill emotional and ritualistic needs, the integration of AI and robotics in home appliances, and an upward trend in smart short-distance transportation tools [1] - Investment recommendations include a positive outlook on leading brands' market share growth both domestically and internationally, opportunities in niche markets driven by new consumer trends, and potential for companies undergoing business model transformations to create new growth avenues [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The overall trading activity in the market has slightly decreased, with a decline in industry rotation intensity. The average daily trading volume in the A-share market dropped from 1.17 trillion to 1.09 trillion, and the turnover rate for the Shanghai Composite Index fell to 58% [1] - The proportion of stocks that gained in value has decreased to 60%, with the median weekly return for A-share stocks falling to 0.75% [1] - The concentration of trading has increased, with the top five sectors by trading volume showing a slight recovery from the bottom, indicating a historical turnover rate above the 90th percentile for the financial and food & beverage sectors [1] Group 2: A-Share Fund Flows - Various funds have flowed into the A-share market, with ETF inflows exceeding 12.29 billion yuan, marking the first inflow in six weeks. The proportion of passive trading has increased to 5.3% [2] - Public funds saw a marginal decrease in new issuance to 9.23 billion yuan, while existing public fund positions decreased by 0.5% [2] - Foreign capital inflow reached 3.9 million USD, with the Stock Connect trading volume accounting for 13.1% [2] Group 3: A-Share Industry Allocation - The computer sector saw significant net inflows, while the electronics and communications sectors experienced net outflows [3] - The ETF sector showed widespread net inflows across primary industries, with electronics, electric new energy, and non-bank financials leading the inflows [3] - The top three industries on the trading leaderboard were machinery, basic chemicals, and environmental protection [3] Group 4: Hong Kong and Global Fund Flows - Southbound capital inflows increased, with a net inflow of 28.07 billion yuan, representing the 85th percentile since 2022. Foreign capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks reached 470 million USD [4] - Developed markets experienced a net outflow of 7.5 billion USD in active funds, while emerging markets saw a net inflow of 3.36 billion USD in passive funds [4] - Foreign capital has shifted from inflows into US stocks to outflows, with China and the UK being the primary beneficiaries of foreign capital inflows [4] Group 5: AI Social Networks - The future of mixed AI social networks is expected to enhance social network value, providing greater social value and network utility [6] - The evolution of social networks in the AI era will lead to a mixed structure, strengthening network effects and ensuring high certainty in demand and business models [7] - The recommendation is to focus on global social network leaders due to their advantages in user base, ecosystem, model capabilities, and data [7] Group 6: Cosmetics Industry - The cosmetics sector is experiencing stable demand, with domestic brands gaining market share, particularly in skincare, makeup, and personal care [9] - The industry is witnessing a trend of product innovation and emotional consumption, with a focus on high-quality domestic brands [10] - The outlook for 2025 indicates a significant recovery in market risk appetite, with domestic brands leading new consumption trends [10] Group 7: Robotics Industry - Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot is expected to reach Mars by 2027, with significant advancements in robotics technology being reported [12] - The launch of the first household AI robot by UBTECH and the entry of Honor into the robotics industry highlight the growing interest and investment in robotics [13] - The 2025 Zhangjiang Embodied Intelligence Developer Conference successfully showcased advancements in humanoid robotics and the industry ecosystem [13] Group 8: Transportation Industry - OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, which is expected to enhance oil transportation demand certainty [15] - The oil transportation market is experiencing fluctuations due to trade rhythms, with the average TCE for VLCC from the Middle East to China dropping to 32,000 USD [15] - The outlook for refined oil transportation remains positive, with expectations of continued price recovery due to improved refinery efficiency [18]

Group 1: High School Education Industry - The high school education industry is expected to have a population dividend for another 7-8 years, with the eligible population born between 2008-2010 (ages 15-17) [1] - Policy support is driving the expansion of high school education, transitioning from vocational-general separation to integration [1] - The graduation rate of regular high schools in China is gradually approaching that of developed countries, indicating significant improvement in education accessibility [1] Group 2: Emotional and Experiential Consumption - Emotional value and experiential consumption are rapidly translating into commercial value, addressing underlying psychological needs across different social stages [1] - The craftsmanship and added value of gold products are increasing, with innovations catering to young consumers' aesthetic and preservation needs [1] - The tea and coffee sectors are undergoing product, channel, and technological iterations, showing structural high growth potential [1] Group 3: AI Commercialization and Retail Innovation - New technologies, particularly AI, are being applied to new physical devices like AI glasses and toys, with significant advancements in efficiency and commercialization in HR services, e-commerce, and education [2] - Traditional retail is under pressure but is experiencing strong transformation dynamics, shifting core competencies from site selection to product selection [2] - New retail channels, such as discount snacks and urban outlet stores, are achieving economies of scale, while instant retail leverages fulfillment efficiency to capture market share [2]

Group 1: Shipping Industry - The core viewpoint highlights the ongoing impact of tariff policies and the need to monitor the restructuring and differentiation of shipping alliances. The past five years have seen two cycles of high prosperity, with an increase in profit margins. The sustainability of this prosperity will depend on tariff and economic expectations, especially as trade tensions escalate in the first half of 2025. The market is expected to face pressures from larger vessels and supply constraints, alongside ongoing trade friction, necessitating attention to the reshaping of global trade patterns [1]. - The dry bulk shipping sector is anticipated to see a gradual recovery in demand driven by iron ore production increases. The post-pandemic recovery is expected to lead to moderate growth in 2023-2024, but demand growth may taper off in the first half of 2025 due to production cuts in some steel mills. The global iron ore production cycle is beginning, particularly with the imminent launch of the West Simandou mega project, which could lead to demand exceeding expectations [1]. Group 2: Oil Shipping - The oil shipping sector is projected to benefit from increased crude oil production, which is favorable for demand, and has the potential for a downside option with falling oil prices. The market is expected to see an upward trend in prosperity from 2022 to the first half of 2024, with a significant rebound in freight rates due to a recovery in oil price levels and the escalation of sanctions on Iran. The supply of oil tankers remains rigid, and the oil shipping supply-demand balance is expected to continue improving over the next two years [1]. - The strategy maintains a bullish rating on oil shipping, emphasizing the potential for reverse layout opportunities. The profitability of oil shipping companies is expected to be robust, benefiting from the rising market conditions. Market expectations are at a low point, with dividend yields supporting valuation floors, making the risk-reward ratio attractive, especially in light of geopolitical situations that may present reverse opportunities [2].

重要提醒 更多国泰海通研究和服务 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 亦可联系对口销售获取 ...

每周一景： 云南玉龙雪山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【宏观 】 全球变局：锚定"确定性"——国泰海通2025年中期宏观展望 全球进入货币体系重构时代： 全球经济体系重构的根源在于信任基础的变化，基于国际关系变化的信任 下降，会导致整个全球货币体系继续分化，重塑资产价格。"去美元化"确实在缓慢进行，主要是非经济因 素主导，尤其是国际关系变化、各国信任度的下降。在这个背景下，黄金的长期牛市需要站在更长历史维 度看待。 各国之间信任度变化的趋势很难改变，这也决定了本轮黄金的牛市是长期的、历史性的变化。 长期来看，只有美国经济纠偏能力还在，美元也不会崩溃。 但 中短期，需要关注美元信用可能进一步下 降。 美债利率实际利率、通胀预期、名义利率存在上行风险， 美元存在继续贬值风险，黄金上涨会加 速，日元、欧元、英镑等国际货币不排除进一步升值。 国内宏观：求诸于内，自胜者强。 中长期来看，我国经济具有较大潜力，不过，短期经济的需求仍然需 要提振。 2025 年要完成 5% 左右的增长目标，仍需积极政策继续发力。 风险提示 ： 稳增长政策落地进度不及预期，国际贸易环境超预期恶化 。 我们认为下半年宏观政策继续边际加码，尤其 ...

当优选机构多头持仓增加且空头持仓减少时，我们认为多头资金与空头资金对后续判断均偏多，发出做多 信号；当优选机构多头持仓减少且空头持仓增加时，我们认为多头资金与空头资金对后续判断均偏空，发 出做空信号；其余情况则不发出信号。 回测结果表明，蜘蛛网策略在 TS 合约上展现出显著择时优势： 2020 年 1 月 1 日至 2025 年 4 月 10 日期间，基于前 20 家会员机构多空持仓构建的策略实现年化收益 1.84% （较基准提升 1.45% ），夏 普比率 0.83 （较基准提升 1.46 ），而其余合约表现相对平庸，其背后反映出并非所有合约都适合以前 20 家会员机构作优选机构。 针对这一局限，我们选择利用动态调整"蜘蛛网"节点进行改进：首先根据不 同合约投资者特性预设"蜘蛛网"节点（ 优选会员机构） 的可选择范围，再通过滚动窗口定期筛选出最优 节点。实证显示，动态调整后的策略能够灵活匹配不同合约，显著提升年化收益与夏普比率，成功弥补了 传统蜘蛛网策略超额收益有限的问题。 寻找"聪明资金"：基于单个会员的蜘蛛网策略。 不同会员背后的客户群体不同，所表现出来的行为可能 也会有较大差异，那么其中是否存在着更加 ...