Core Viewpoint - The current bottleneck in inference speed is primarily due to memory bandwidth rather than computing power, with the NPU+DRAM stacking technology showing significant improvements in memory bandwidth, indicating a clear industry trend [1][2]. Group 1: Inference Speed and Memory Bandwidth - The Qualcomm Snapdragon 8 GEN 3 has an NPU computing power of approximately 45 TOPs and a memory bandwidth of about 67 GB/s. When running a 7B large model, the calculation capability is limited to approximately 3215 tokens/s by computing power and 4.8 tokens/s by memory bandwidth, with the final speed being constrained by the lower of the two values, highlighting the significant memory bandwidth limitation [2]. - A practical test on a Xiaomi phone using the Qwen3-8B-MNN model showed a decoding speed of 222 tokens with an average response time of 32 seconds, indicating that a user-perceived inference speed should reach 40-50 tokens/s [2]. Group 2: 3D DRAM Solution - The memory limitation for edge AI can be addressed by 3D DRAM. By stacking DRAM and NPU through HB technology, if the memory bandwidth is increased to 800 GB/s, the memory limitation could rise to 57 tokens/s [3]. - Key players in this space include Chinese companies like Zhaoyi Innovation and its subsidiary Qingyun Technology, as well as Taiwanese storage IDM Winbond and mobile AP leader Qualcomm, all focusing on the 3D DRAM+NPU solution, indicating a clear technological trend [3]. Group 3: Hardware and Model Development - The current industry phase suggests that hardware is leading model development, with future growth expected to be driven by model advancements benefiting from hardware improvements. Hardware solutions require extensive stability testing before commercial deployment at scale [3]. - Qualcomm must adopt strategies suitable for AI large model devices to avoid risks associated with a potential "GPU" revolution in mobile AI by the end of 2025 or 2026, as companies prepared with the right hardware and models could experience a significant one-year window of opportunity [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report analyzes the price rhythm of gold from the perspective of trading structure, highlighting the significant role of central bank gold purchases and investment demand in driving gold prices upward in 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Purchases and Demand - Central banks are projected to purchase approximately 1,044 tons of gold in 2024, becoming a crucial driver for gold price increases [1]. - The investment demand for gold is expected to reach 1,179 tons in 2024, indicating a shift in demand dynamics as prices rise [1]. Group 2: Consumer and Industrial Demand - Global gold jewelry consumption is anticipated to decline by 11% year-on-year in 2024, amounting to around 1,877 tons, due to high gold prices suppressing consumer demand [1]. - Industrial demand for gold remains low and stable, projected at only 326 tons in 2024 [1]. Group 3: Trading Structure and Market Dynamics - There has been a significant increase in gold ETF sizes, with domestic gold ETFs seeing a rise of over 50 billion in April, corresponding to a demand for 50-60 tons of physical gold [1]. - A surge in trading volume for A-share gold stocks has been observed, indicating heightened investor enthusiasm for gold investments and a crowded trading environment [1][2]. Group 4: Macro Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The current rise in gold prices is driven by a decline in the credibility of the US dollar and a restructuring of the monetary system, particularly following the freezing of Russian foreign exchange reserves in 2022 [2]. - Increasing uncertainty in the global investment landscape, exacerbated by issues such as the US debt ceiling and unpredictable government policies, is likely to continue pushing investors towards safe-haven assets like gold [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical extreme fluctuations in the US stock market over the past fifty years, highlighting three significant events: Black Monday in 1987, the 2008 financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. It emphasizes that the future trajectory of the US stock market may depend on the impact of tariff policies on the economy and the pace of industrial transformation led by AI [1][3]. Group 1: Historical Market Fluctuations - The US stock market has experienced three major extreme fluctuations in the past fifty years: Black Monday in 1987, the 2008 financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, which are considered the most typical major shocks in this period [1][2]. - Black Monday in 1987 was characterized by a combination of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, pressure from a depreciating dollar, and a bubble burst leading to significant sell-offs, resulting in the largest single-day drop in history [2]. - The 2008 financial crisis was triggered by the collapse of the subprime mortgage market, which led to a liquidity crisis, culminating in the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and a simultaneous drop in stocks, bonds, and currencies [2]. - The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 caused a global economic slowdown, with significant negative impacts on production, consumption, and employment in the US, leading to multiple market circuit breakers being triggered within ten days [2]. Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - Since April, the tariff policies of the Trump administration have led to significant volatility in the US stock market, raising concerns about a potential "hard landing" for the US economy amid increasing policy uncertainty and trade tensions [3]. - The impact of tariff policies on the US economy has not yet fully materialized, and if previously postponed tariffs are implemented, the economy may face risks of hard landing or stagflation, which could put additional pressure on the stock market [3]. - The ongoing industrial transformation driven by AI is seen as a critical factor that may support corporate earnings in the US stock market as the trend continues to evolve [3].

大众品：表现分化，结构性增长。 1 ）啤酒： 25Q1 收入同比 +4% 、净利润同比 +11% ， 销量景气修 复吨价承压，成本优势利润率持续改善。 2 ）软饮料： 25Q1 收入同比 +3% 、净利润同比 +1% ，继 续保持较好景气度，龙头亮各有亮点。 3 ）零食： 食品综合板块分化明显，其中新渠道和新品类驱动下 零食成长性凸显， 24Q4 、 25Q1 收入分别同比 +18% 、 +2% ， 25Q1 受高基数和春节提前等因素影 响业绩增速阶段性下滑。 4 ）乳制品： 2024 年（ A 股）收入同比 -7% 、净利润 -27% ，度过调整期 后 25Q1 景气度和毛销差边际改善。 5 ）调味品： 2024 年板块收入边际改善， 25Q1 业绩稳步增长， 收入同比 +3% 、净利润同比 +7% 、毛利率同比 +1.6pct 。 6 ） 餐饮供应链： 竞争加剧导致 2024 年 板块利润承压， 25Q1 收入同比 -5% 、利润同比 -13% 环比降速。 风险提示： 消费复苏不及预期、市场竞争加剧、成本进一步上涨、食品安全问题。 文章来源 本文摘自：2025年5月5日发布的 结构分化，重视成长——食品饮 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the emergence of "Tech Dragon Pearls" in the Greater Bay Area, focusing on companies with technological advantages and commercialization potential in fields such as low-altitude economy, AI large models, embodied intelligence, and intelligent driving, which are expected to challenge the monopoly of international tech giants and lead to a revaluation of Chinese tech assets [1]. Group 1: Company Summaries - DJI Innovation specializes in the production and sales of drones and handheld photography equipment, holding nearly 80% market share in the global consumer drone market, and offers advanced intelligent driving solutions through its subsidiary [2]. - Self-Variable Robotics focuses on the development of "general embodied large models" and has successfully developed the world's largest parameter scale embodied intelligent general operation model, WALL-A, by October 2024 [2]. - Zhijidongli is dedicated to creating full-size general humanoid robots and has developed innovative products, including bipedal robots, and has implemented a video generation large model for embodied operation algorithms [2]. - Yuanxiang is a leading AI and 3D technology service company that has developed and open-sourced a series of high-performance large models, providing a one-stop platform for 3D content creation and consumption [2]. - Simou Technology utilizes deep learning and machine vision as key technology engines, developing a comprehensive ecosystem of smart manufacturing software and hardware products, including industrial multimodal large models and AI-AOI visual inspection equipment [3]. - Superparameter Technology leverages cutting-edge AI technology to enhance the autonomy and interactivity of Game Agents, becoming the first company globally to achieve large-scale commercialization in the Game Agent field [3]. - Yuanrong Qixing offers leading intelligent driving solutions, with nearly 40,000 units sold by March 2025, and aims to develop RoadAGI in the long term [3]. - Hege Technology provides advanced 3D printing application solutions, integrating a complete process from intelligent data collection to 3D printing materials and post-processing [3].

法律声明 本公众订阅号(微信号: GTHT RESEARCH )为国泰海通证券股份有限公司(以下简称"国泰海通证券") 研 究所依法设立、独立运营的唯一官方订阅号。其他机构或个人在微信平台上以国泰海通研究所名义注册 的，或含有"国泰海通研究"，或含有与国泰海通证券研究所品牌名称相关信息的其他订阅号均不是国泰 海通证券研究所官方订阅号。 本订阅号不是国泰海通证券研究报告发布平台，本订阅号所载内容均来自于国泰海通证券研究所已正式 发布的研究报告 如需了解详细的证券研究信息 请具体参见国泰海通证券研究所发布的完整报告 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor equipment and materials sectors are expected to benefit from expansion in advanced logic, advanced memory, and advanced packaging fields, leading to sustained growth through 2025E [1] Semiconductor Equipment Sector - The semiconductor equipment sector is rated "overweight" as capital expenditures from mainland China’s fabs and OSATs are projected to increase in 2025 and 2026, albeit with structural differences [1] - Foundries will focus on expanding advanced processes, while advanced memory factories will upgrade to more advanced technologies, and OSATs will concentrate on advanced packaging [1] - Companies with significant exposure in advanced logic, memory, and packaging are expected to benefit from the upcoming expansions over the next 2 to 3 years [1] Semiconductor Materials Sector - The semiconductor materials sector is also rated "overweight," with wafer and packaging factories gradually recovering capacity utilization rates in 2024 [1] - Leading wafer manufacturers like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor are expected to see continued improvements in capacity utilization rates into Q1 2025, with additional capacity released from expansions in 2024 [1] - Companies with substantial market share in mainstream wafer and packaging sectors, along with new products gaining traction in client applications, are anticipated to achieve better performance [1] Financial Performance - In the semiconductor equipment sector, 44 companies reported a total revenue of 109.368 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27.01% from 86.109 billion yuan in 2023 [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 15.653 billion yuan, up 8.09% from 14.482 billion yuan in 2023 [2] - In the semiconductor materials sector, 42 companies reported a total revenue of 76.245 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.90% from 66.357 billion yuan in 2023 [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 5.209 billion yuan, down 17.98% from 6.351 billion yuan in 2023 [3] Market Valuation - The trading volume of the semiconductor equipment sector accounted for a minimum of 0.61%, a maximum of 2.82%, and an average of 1.14% of the total trading volume in the A-share market, with a current level of 0.98% as of April 30, 2025 [4] - The semiconductor materials sector's trading volume had a minimum of 0.38%, a maximum of 2.10%, and an average of 0.78%, with a current level of 0.96% as of April 30, 2025 [4] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the semiconductor equipment and materials sectors are projected to be 31.21 times and 36.56 times, respectively, based on 2025 earnings forecasts [4]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - Domestic high-frequency indicators show a significant recovery in passenger transport excluding private cars, with water transport also rebounding notably. The number of flights indicates a surge in inbound and outbound travel during the May Day holiday [1] - Service consumption is outperforming goods consumption, as evidenced by the movie box office performance, which saw ticket prices rise while attendance declined. The lack of blockbuster films is a primary reason for this trend [1] - Infrastructure investment continues to recover, driving up prices of construction materials, while port data indicates a rebound in imports and exports [1] Group 2: Market Strategy - The Chinese A/H stock market is expected to rise further, with a bullish outlook maintained after the market's low point in early April. The Shanghai Composite Index approached 3300 points before the May Day holiday, and the Hang Seng Tech Index saw a single-day increase of 3.1% [3] - The adjustment in the stock market during March and April is viewed as a significant turning point, indicating reduced investor concerns about U.S.-China competition and a willingness to engage in the market [3] - The overall sentiment is optimistic, with internal policy signals suggesting a focus on domestic stability to counter external uncertainties, which may lead to a systematic decrease in risk premiums in the Chinese stock market [3] Group 3: Financial Performance - The overall net profit growth rate for the A-share market turned positive in Q1 2025, reaching +4.7%. Key trends include accelerated capital expenditure in the domestic AI industry and improvements in the TMT sector, particularly in electronics and communications [4] - Domestic demand policies have been strengthened to counter external uncertainties, leading to improvements in cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals and construction materials, driven by infrastructure demand [4] Group 4: Industry Comparisons - Emerging technology sectors are highlighted as a growth focus, with recommendations for investments in sectors such as internet, media, gaming, semiconductor, and healthcare. Financial sectors like brokerage, insurance, and banks are also recommended due to declining risk-free rates [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic consumption and fixed asset investment, suggesting a focus on cyclical products and new consumption trends, including real estate, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and cosmetics [5] Group 5: Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a slowdown, with revenue growth of +2% and net profit growth of +4% in 2024, indicating significant demand pressure. Q1 2025 shows a slight increase in revenue of +1% and a marginal net profit increase of +0.2% [11] - The high-end liquor market continues to show strong performance, while the mass market is experiencing a more pronounced divergence, with some segments like snacks showing growth potential due to easing base pressures [12][13] Group 6: Consumer Goods and New Trends - The furniture sector is seeing improved revenue growth due to government support and a strong housing market, while personal care products continue to perform well through innovation and channel integration [15] - The automotive sector is benefiting from increased trade-in incentives, leading to higher performance in Q1 2025, while smart glasses are experiencing explosive growth driven by AI integration [16]

核心观 点 ： 2025Q1 总量业绩增速回升转正，科技与部分顺周期业绩占优，新兴科技与两重两新 是最清晰的景气线索。成长板块资本开支提速，科技与周期经营现金流修复明显 。 摘要 ▶ 总量增速回升转正，科技成长业绩占优。 全 A 非金融石油石化（全 A 两非）归母净利润 增速在 2024Q4 继续探底，但在后续的 2025Q1 转正，控费带动净利率回升是一季度盈利增速回升的主要因 素，但周转率仍有下行压力。结构上，一季度景气线索清晰，具备新兴产业趋势的 AI 硬件业绩增速居 前，顺经济周期链条中"两重两新"落地扩容带动了汽车 / 家电 / 工程机械的业绩增长，供给受限的有色 / 化工增速居前。此外，非银受益资本市场活跃，业绩增速也改善明显。 ▶ 总量增速改善，成长与中小盘修复明显。 1 ）盈利增速： 2024 年全 A 两非营收同比 -0.8% ，净利 润同比 -14.0% 。利润表拆分看，毛利率走弱与费用率上升共同拖累净利率。但 2025Q1 全 A 两非净 利润同比 +4.7% ，较 2024 全年明显改善，主要因为费用率的大幅下行与毛利率止跌企稳带动的净利 率回升。一季度各板块增速分化明显，创业板大幅修 ...

END 光荣属于劳动者， 幸福属于劳动者。 劳动谱写时代华章， 奋斗创造美好未来！ ...