报告导读： 当前家具龙头企业估值处于历史区间底部，或受益于地产数据及政策，边际转 好。家具企业业绩仍有支撑。同时红利属性愈发突出。 维持增持评级。 当前行业仍有一定外界压力的背景下，龙头企业纷纷发力大家居、扩品类，同时布局家装、社区店、线上引流等多种获客方式，进一步强化 对终端客户的触达。利润端，龙头企业则有望通过更为较强的上游议价能力、突出的柔性制造能力、出色的费用控制力，实现降本增效，获得更为客观的盈利 水平。 地产 & 刺激消费政策频出。 地方房地产政策主要方向为调减限制性措施等。 8 月 8 日，北京市优化房地产政策，具体包括五环以外不再限制购房套数 / 公 积金优化首套房认定标准 / 更好促进产城融合职住平衡等。 8 月 25 日上海发布优化调整本市房地产政策措施，明确放宽外环外套数限制 / 统一单身与家庭 购房标准 / 优化公积金政策 / 调整信贷政策等。另外，苏州自 8 月 26 日起，取消苏州市区范围内新建商品住房取得不动产权登记证书满 2 年方可转让的限 制措施（有特殊限制转让要求的住房除外）； 9 月 1 日，南昌市住房和城乡建设局发布《关于优化新建商品房预售监管资金释放节点的通知》，以保 ...

报告导读： 上周新兴市场表现占优，成交趋弱，板块上医药表现最佳。 8 月非农数据大 幅低于预期，引发 9 月降息预期再度升温，市场预期联储年内降息次数抬升至 2.8 次左右 。 此外， 上周港股盈利预期受可选消费板块拖累下修，美股科技盈利预期续升。 市场表现：上周新兴市场表现占优。 股市方面， MSCI 全球 +0.4% ，其中 MSCI 发达 +0.3% 、 MSCI 新兴 +1.3% 。债市方面，美国 10Y 国债利率大幅 下行。大宗方面，黄金涨幅居前。汇率方面，美元贬，英镑平，日元贬，人民币平。分板块看，上周全球医药板块普涨，港股材料 + 可选消费涨幅居前，欧 美股市通讯表现较优。 交投情绪：上周全球股市成交普降，港股美股波动率下降。 从成交量 / 成交额看，上周全球股市成交普遍下降。从投资者情绪看，港股投资者情绪环比上 升、处历史高位，美股投资者情绪下降、处历史偏高位。从波动率看，上周港股 / 美股波动率下降，欧股 / 日股波动率上升。从估值看，上周发达市场、新 兴市场整体估值均较前周提升。 盈利预期：上周港股盈利预期继续下修。 横向对比来看，上周日股 2025 年盈利预期边际变化表现最优，欧股、美股 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of new consumption patterns, technologies, and channels in driving growth in the retail and service sectors [7]. Group 1: New Consumption Trends - The report highlights a shift in consumer behavior towards more digital and experiential purchases, indicating a growing demand for innovative retail solutions [7]. - There is a noted increase in the importance of sustainability and ethical consumption among consumers, influencing purchasing decisions [7]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The integration of advanced technologies such as AI and big data analytics is transforming the retail landscape, enhancing customer experience and operational efficiency [7]. - Companies that leverage technology effectively are expected to gain a competitive edge in the market [7]. Group 3: Emerging Channels - The rise of e-commerce and social commerce is reshaping traditional retail models, with a significant shift towards online platforms for consumer engagement [7]. - The report suggests that businesses must adapt to these new channels to remain relevant and capture market share [7].

Group 1: Convertible Bonds Market - The recent decline and stabilization of the convertible bond market occurred ahead of the underlying stocks, with a notable drop starting on August 27, where convertible bonds fell more than the underlying stocks [4] - As of last Friday, the median price of convertible bonds decreased from a historical high of 136 to 128.6, before recovering to 131.9, indicating a compression in the conversion premium rate from 27.6% to 23.1% [4] - The current high prices and valuations in the convertible bond market present opportunities for quality bonds, as the "slow bull" market mindset suggests limited downside adjustment space [5][6] Group 2: Equity Market Outlook - The equity market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" trend, driven by positive liquidity factors and a high probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may boost risk appetite and attract foreign capital back to A-shares [5] - Key sectors such as technology growth (AI, consumer electronics, semiconductors, innovative pharmaceuticals) remain the core focus, supported by multiple favorable drivers including industry trends and policy directions [5] - The market may experience rotation among sectors, with relatively undervalued industries like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and consumer goods potentially benefiting from high-to-low market demand shifts [5] Group 3: Furniture Sector - The furniture sector is showing signs of bottoming out, with leading companies expanding their product categories and enhancing customer engagement through various channels [10] - Recent government policies aimed at stimulating consumption and easing real estate restrictions are expected to support the furniture market, with significant funding allocated to boost consumer spending [11][12] - The leading companies in the furniture sector are projected to achieve better profitability through strong upstream bargaining power and effective cost control, with an average PE valuation of 11.0 times and a dividend yield of 5.2% for 2025 [12] Group 4: Oil and Petrochemical Sector - OPEC+ is considering further production increases, which may lead to an imbalance in oil supply and demand, especially as the peak season ends [17] - The anticipated increase in production by approximately 137,000 barrels per day could exacerbate the downward pressure on oil prices [17] - Investment recommendations include focusing on leading companies in the polyester filament sector, which are expected to benefit from improved market conditions and reduced inventory levels [18]

Core Viewpoint - In August, China's export growth showed a slight decline due to a higher base and the tapering off of previous technical rush shipments, with a notable increase in re-export scale and sustained high levels of exports to non-US and non-re-export destinations [1][2]. Export Structure - The export momentum outlook indicates that regulatory measures on re-exports from certain ASEAN countries, such as Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia, are a key market concern. These countries have implemented regulations focusing on local value content and substantial processing requirements since 2025 [2]. - The impact of re-export regulations is expected to be minimal. Even under the worst-case scenario, where both narrow and broad definitions of re-exports face a 40% tariff, the effect on China's export growth rate would only be a reduction of 2%. In reality, only 30-50% of the products exported to ASEAN can be classified as re-export demand, leading to a more realistic impact of 0.7-1.2% on export growth [2]. - The company maintains that the short-term export momentum will see a mild decline, but the medium to long-term resilience remains strong due to stable replacement demand from non-US and non-re-export destinations, low impact from re-export regulations, and robust capital goods exports [2]. Trade Data Insights - In August 2025, China's export growth rate in USD terms was 4.4%, down from 7.2% previously, while import growth was 1.3%, down from 4.1% [8]. - Month-on-month, August exports were flat compared to July, slightly below seasonal levels and significantly lower than the same period in 2024, indicating that high base effects are dragging down year-on-year export growth [8]. - The trade surplus has rebounded, with a structural shift observed: exports to the US are slowing while those to ASEAN are increasing, reflecting an expansion in re-export activities. Conversely, exports to Latin America have decreased due to the cooling of technical rush shipments and the impact of new tariffs [8].

Group 1: Economic and Policy Insights - The third phase of public fund fee reform has commenced in China, focusing on enhancing market efficiency and investor protection [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation have issued a growth action plan for the electronic information manufacturing industry for 2025-2026 [2] - The State Council has initiated pilot programs for market-oriented allocation of factors in select regions, aiming to improve urban development models [2] Group 2: Capital Market Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has revised the regulations on sales fees for open-end securities investment funds to lower costs for investors [3] - A joint meeting between the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China emphasized the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies to support the stable development of the bond market [3] - The CSRC is focused on enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of the capital market, as highlighted in a recent expert meeting [3] Group 3: Global Economic Tracking - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for August was significantly below expectations, with only 22,000 jobs added, indicating a notable slowdown in the labor market [4] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.3% in August, further confirming the trend of labor market deterioration [4] - Federal Reserve officials, including Powell and Waller, have signaled the potential for interest rate cuts in response to the weakening job market and inflation concerns [4]

2025 上半年油运景气回升， Q3 盈利将创两年新高。 2024 下半年油运市场受地缘油价与伊朗增产而经历压力测试。 2025 年以来，油运景气已明显回 升， Q2 淡季中东 - 中国航线 VLCC TCE 中枢超 4 万美元 / 天，油运公司 Q2 业绩同比降幅显著收窄。 1 ）油价中枢回落。 油价定价逻辑逐步由地缘主 导回归供需决定， OPEC+ 增产加速油价中枢回落，助力炼厂开工回升与贸易恢复。 2 ）伊朗制裁升级。 美国对伊朗制裁加码，特别对相关影子船队制裁趋 严，助力油轮合规市场供需改善。 2025 上半年油运公司业绩同比高基数仍普遍下降，值得注意的是，其中原油轮盈利已连续两个季度环比上升。根据波交所 指数，我们预计 2025Q3 原油轮盈利有望创过去两年同期新高。 油运的长逻辑：受益全球原油增产，下半年增产利好或逐步体现。 2022 年初俄乌冲突开启全球油运贸易重构，俄欧"舍近求远"驱动油运航距拉长及需求大 增超一成，油运景气上升。过去一年短期因素主导景气波动，我们估算目前油运产能利用率或已恢复至阈值。我们预计未来数年油运供需将继续向好，景气有 望好于预期。 1 ）供给刚性持续。 油轮老龄化最为 ...

报告导读： 煤炭价格见顶，预计 2026H1 上半年压力仍在但同比 25 年同期会趋缓，电 煤需求叠加煤炭价格的弹性大概率从 2026H2 开始，预计 26H2 煤价可以升至 800 元 / 吨以上。 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 动力煤：价格见顶回落。 截至 9 月 5 日，北方黄骅港 Q5500 平仓价 691 元 / 吨，较前一周下跌 11 元 / 吨（ -1.6% ）。从供给看，国内稳定，进口继 续缩量：预计全年国内加进口总供给基本维持稳定下滑；需求端，我们预计 6-8 月需求大幅度改善， Q3 盈利有望迎来反弹。 焦煤：期现共反弹，铁水有望淡季不淡。 截至 9 月 5 日，京唐港主焦煤库提价（山西产） 1550 元 / 吨，较前一周下跌 80 元 / 吨（ - ...

每周 一 景：湖南衡阳衡山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【交运】站在旺季前，再议油运的短逻辑与长逻辑 2025上半年油运景气回升，Q3盈利将创两年新高。 2024下半年油运市场受地缘油价与伊朗增产而经历压力测试。2025年以来，油运景气已明显回升，Q2 淡季中东-中国航线VLCC TCE中枢超4万美元/天，油运公司Q2业绩同比降幅显著收窄。1）油价中枢回落。油价定价逻辑逐步由地缘主导回归供需决定， OPEC+增产加速油价中枢回落，助力炼厂开工回升与贸易恢复。2）伊朗制裁升级。美国对伊朗制裁加码，特别对相关影子船队制裁趋严，助力油轮合规市场 供需改善。2025上半年油运公司业绩同比高基数仍普遍下降，值得注意的是，其中原油轮盈利已连续两个季度环比上升。根据波交所指数，我们预计 2025Q3原油轮盈利有望创过去两年同期新高。 油运的长逻辑：受益全球原油增产，下半年增产利好或逐步体现。 2022年初俄乌冲突开启全球油运贸易重构，俄欧"舍近求远"驱动油运航距拉长及需求大增 超一成，油运景气上升。过去一年短期因素主导景气波动，我们估算目前油运产能利用率或已恢复至阈值。我们预计未来数年油运供需将继续向好，景气有望 好于预期 ...

报告导读： 2025H1 机械行业景气回升，半导体设备、工程机械、锂电设备、风电零部 件、出口消费链的盈利能力均有增长。人形机器人等科技驱动型行业和工程机械等内需驱 动型行业景气度预期维持高位，建议关注：人形机器人、工程机械。新能源行业"反内 卷"共识形成，光伏设备、锂电设备、风电零部件有望由价格竞争转向价值竞争。 2025 年机械行业整体景气抬升。 截至 2025 年二季度末， A 股机械行业上市公司共 546 家， 2025H1 共实现收入 1.0 万亿元 /yoy+6.7% ，归母净利润 756.4 亿 元 /yoy+167.7% ， 毛 利 率 22.6%/yoy+0.1pct , 净 利 率 7.9%/yoy+0.9pct ， ROE4.2% ， 资 产 负 债 率 54.0% ； 分 季 度 看 ， 2025Q1/2025Q2 分 别 实 现 营 收 4,743.7 亿 元 /5,676.8 亿 元 ， 同 比 增 长 8.0%/5.7% ， 实 现 归 母 净 利 润 337.5 亿 元 /421.5 亿 元 ， 同 比 增 长 19.5%/17.9% ，毛利率 22.5%/22.7% ，净利率 ...