降准降息，向市场注入流动性。 人民银行推出一揽子货币政策措施，主要有三大类共十项措施，其中与房 地产相关的措施包括： 1 ）降低存款准备金率 0.5 个百分点，预计将向市场提供长期流动性约 1 万亿元 ； 2 ）下调政策利率 0.1 个百分点，预计将带动 LPR 随之下行 0.1 个百分点； 3 ）下调住房公积金贷 款利率 0.25 个百分点，五年期以上首套房利率由 2.85% 降至 2.6% ，其他期限利率同步调整。预计政 策每年将节省居民公积金贷款利息支出超过 200 亿元； 4 ）下调结构货性货币政策工具利率 0.25 个百 分点， PSL 利率从目前的 2.25% 降至 2% 。我们认为，此次大幅降息降准将进一步向市场释放流动 性，降低居民购房成本。政策有利缩小购房成本与租售比之间差距，有助于促进房价企稳和刚需释放；另 一方面， PSL 利率下行降低城中村改造综合成本，对推动多元化手段稳定市场意义积极。 报告导读： 一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期。降息降准进一步向市场释放流动性。加快 出台与房地产发展新模式相适配的系列融资制度。 投资建议：维持"增持"评级。 我们认为此次会议是对 4 月政治局会议相关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent changes in monetary policy, highlighting a cautious approach to interest rate cuts while emphasizing the use of structural tools to support economic growth and liquidity in the bond market [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The central bank has adopted a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, with a recent 10 basis point (bp) cut being less than market expectations, indicating a focus on stabilizing growth and guiding long-term bond rates [1]. - The average cost of open market operations (OMO), medium-term lending facility (MLF), and reverse repos has decreased by 52 bp, with the average cost at 1.79% as of April [1]. - The central bank is enhancing the use of structural tools, lowering interest rates on these tools and increasing the quotas for various relending programs to directly support the real economy [1]. Group 2: Market Implications - The bond market is expected to remain resilient due to liquidity support, with a shift in focus from speculative rate cuts to the reality of declining funding rates, which may provide a safety net for the bond market [1][2]. - The probability of continuous rate cuts in the short term is low, with expectations for a total reduction of around 30 bp for the entire year of 2025, indicating a more stable approach to monetary policy [2]. - The trend of declining short-term funding and certificate of deposit rates is expected to continue, with the 7-day OMO rate recently lowered to 1.4%, suggesting a downward movement towards 1.6% for the one-year AAA certificate of deposit yields [2].

Group 1 - The article provides a forecast for the upcoming adjustments to the CSI 300, CSI 500, and STAR 50 indices, aimed at offering reference for investors [1][2] Group 2 - For the CSI 300 index, it is predicted that six stocks, including AVIC Chengfei and China National Aviation Holdings, will be added, while six stocks, such as Hualan Biological and Oriental Yuhong, will be removed [2] - For the CSI 500 index, it is anticipated that 50 stocks, including Shenhuo Co. and Huaibei Mining, will be added, while 50 stocks, such as Jidong Cement and Xinxing Casting Pipe, will be removed [2] - For the STAR 50 index, it is expected that Hengxuan Technology will be added, while Zhongfu Shenying will be removed [2]

公募基金历史相对业绩比较基准的超额收益统计： 1 、 从所有公募基金的角度来看， 2017 年至 2025 年 4 月底期间，所有公募基金 3 年累计跑输业绩比较基准 10% 以上的平均占比为 15% 左右。 2 、 主 动权益基金的超额收益分布波动更大。 2022 年至 2024 年，主动权益基金 3 年累计跑输业绩比较基准 10% 以上的比例一度高达 64% 。随着《方案》的落地，主动权益基金的超额收益有望更为稳定。 风险提示： 公募基金相对业绩比较基准的超额收益统计基于历史业绩测算，不代表未来。 文章来源 本文摘自：2025年5月7日发布的 受人之托，忠人之事——《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》 倪韵婷 ，资格证书编号： S0880525040097 庄梓恺 ，资格证书编号： S0880525040038 报告导读： 2025 年 5 月 7 日，证监会印发《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》。本 次方案对于未来公募基金行业发展起到了方向性的指引，公募基金整体考核将从历史上重 规模向重回报改变，方案强调了对投资者的保护，同时对于公募行业参与的各类机构也均 提出了规范化的业态要求，为公募行业长期健康高质量 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Trump's tariff policies have not resolved the issues of trade and fiscal deficits, leading to increased market concerns about the dollar system and economic volatility [1][3][4] - The article emphasizes that China is one of the three major centers in the global supply chain, with a leading position in manufacturing value added and a balanced export structure across various product categories [5][6][7] - Since the trade friction with the US began in 2018, China's exports to the US have significantly decreased, but overall exports have remained robust due to adjustments in export strategies towards regions like ASEAN, Russia, and India [8] Group 2 - The article discusses the potential for China to form new trade orders with economies such as the EU, Japan, South Korea, ASEAN, and the Middle East, focusing on enhancing cooperation and exploring new growth points in external circulation [9]

一是重票息而轻资本利得。短期内债市或将继续维持震荡格局，重新进入"票息市"，因此我们认为债市更 建议以票息和骑乘等策略博弈静态的曲线，而非抢跑曲线平移。二是博弈策略和券种轮动更胜博弈利率波 段。随着债券市场供给的丰富，后续利差策略和券种轮动空间大幅增加。但对利率波段的博弈更多可能来 源于各类政治经济黑天鹅，可能频繁出现利率下行"一日游"的现象，可遇而不可求。三是债市"安全垫"仍 在于资金。从当日资金利率在 1.65% 左右估计（ DR007 ），资金可能持续成为债市的安全垫， 10Y 国 债在 1.7% 以上就可能意味着正 carry 再起，买盘增加。 报告导读： 一揽子金融政策落地后债市表现克制。后续债市不必悲观，但需要贯彻"新思 维"，包括重票息而轻资本利得、博弈策略和券种轮动更胜博弈利率波段，债市"安全垫"仍 在于资金。 5 月 7 日，国务院新闻办召开新闻发布会介绍了新一轮的一揽子增量金融政策，政策落地后，债市表现相 对克制，其中短端利率小幅下行，而长端利率则有所回调。 其背后是货币政策宽松的想象空间实际并未扩 大（甚至有所缩小），而资金利率下行的现实也有待确认，"双降"的快速到来对于债市实际上形成了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the structural differentiation characteristics of the A-share market in 2024, highlighting the financial performance pressures faced by listed companies amid increasing global economic uncertainty. Group 1: Overall Financial Performance - Total revenue for all A-share (excluding finance/oil) listed companies in 2024 is 56.39 trillion yuan, remaining flat compared to 2023, but the growth rate has shifted from +3.1% to -0.7% [1] - Net profit is 2.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 15.1%, worsening from a 3.4% decline in 2023; the proportion of loss-making companies has increased from 20.8% to 26.6% [1] - R&D investment reached 1.82 trillion yuan, growing by 2.5% year-on-year [1] - Capital expenditure totaled 4.16 trillion yuan, down 6.0% year-on-year [1] - The proportion of companies with a Z-score below 1.81 (indicating high credit risk) is 23.2%, an increase of 3.1% from 2023 [1] Group 2: Industry-Specific Financial Performance - The real estate sector is a major drag on revenue and profit, with 98 listed real estate companies reporting a revenue decline of 513.7 billion yuan and a net profit drop of 188.9 billion yuan, the highest decline in the industry; 73% of these companies have a Z-score below 1.81 [2] - The consumer sector shows resilience, with the strongest profitability in the food and beverage (daily consumption) and home appliance (discretionary consumption) industries, achieving weighted ROE of 16.8% and 15.3% respectively [2] - BYD leads in innovation with the highest R&D investment in 2024, totaling 54.2 billion yuan, a 36% increase year-on-year, with cumulative R&D investment exceeding 180 billion yuan [2] - The semiconductor industry benefits from AI and domestic substitution, with capital expenditure increasing by 10.7%, a significant rise from 3.5% in 2023; major wafer foundries like SMIC, Hua Hong, and Jinghe Integrated Circuit have capital expenditures of 54.6 billion yuan, 19.8 billion yuan, and 13.2 billion yuan respectively [2] Group 3: Risk Exposure and Strategic Shifts - The software industry has overtaken media as the sector with the highest goodwill impairment risk, with the ratio of goodwill impairment losses to net profit reaching 519.8% in 2024 [3] - Overseas revenue for all A-share (excluding finance/oil) companies totaled 884.24 billion yuan, a 10% year-on-year increase, accounting for 15.7% of total revenue, with 27 out of 33 industries reporting positive growth in overseas revenue [3] - Private enterprises and local state-owned enterprises are experiencing profit declines, with private enterprises seeing a revenue increase of 3.4% but a net profit drop of 19.0%, while local state-owned enterprises' net profit decreased by 12.9% [3][4]

投资建议。 人形机器人高速发展，具身智能是驱动商业化落地的核心因素。机器人智能水平以及实时控制 性能提升将驱动感知性能、算力、通信效率等需求增长，端侧传感、驱控及通信芯片将充分受益。具身智 能落地打开人形机器人成长空间，未来应用前景广阔，带动整机厂商业绩上行。 报告导读： 具身智能是人形机器人商业化落地核心，多模态、强化学习加速智能进化，感 知传感迭代革新， EtherCAT 赋能高速通信，端侧算力持续升级。 本文摘自：2025年5月8日发布的 从"能动"到"灵动"，机器人智能化步入新篇章 舒 迪 ，资格证书编号： S0880521070002 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 市 场空间超万亿，实现具身智能是商业化落 ...

每周一景： 云南玉龙雪山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【 宏观】 关税加剧滞胀担忧，通胀压力掣肘降息——2025年5月美联储议息会议点评 美东时间 2025 年 5 月 7 日，美联储发布议息会议声明，随后鲍威尔例行召开新闻发布会。 从议息会议 声明和鲍威尔发言中，我们认为主要有五处边际变化：一是美联储按兵不动，但是滞胀预期加剧；二是鲍 威尔不断强调经济前景的不确定性，并认为其与关税前景密切相关；三是鲍威尔认为当前通胀压力主要来 自于关税，而关税谈判存在不确定性；四是鲍威尔给出模糊化的前瞻性指引，维持一如既往偏"鹰"的表 态，但也传递了未来降息的可能性；五是鲍威尔重申美联储的独立性，部分缓解市场担忧。总体来看，本 次美联储议息会议的关键词就是"不确定性"，无论是经济前景、通胀前景，还是降息前景，都充满了不确 定性，而其根源就来自于关税政策的不确定性和关税对经济影响机制的不确定性。 短期经济数据和就业数据韧性进一步延后降息预期，预计后续通胀压力将对降息时间和幅度形成持续掣 肘。 近期公布的美国一季度经济数据和 4 月份非农就业数据仍有一定的韧性，从而整体降息预期有所延 后，叠加鲍威尔的"鹰"派表态，美国联邦基金 ...

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