Workflow
NORTHEAST SECURITIES
icon
Search documents
转债市场一周回顾(2025、05、06-2025、05、09)
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-05-11 13:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market rose following the equity market this week. The convertible bonds of industries such as national defense and military industry, household appliances, machinery and equipment, automobiles, and power equipment led the gains, with increases of 2.66%, 1.99%, 1.91%, 1.74%, and 1.62% respectively. Only the media sector declined, with a drop of -0.7%. The median absolute price of convertible bonds this week was 120.6. In the stock market, all sectors rose, with the national defense and military industry, communication, power equipment, and banking industries leading the gains, with increases of 6.33%, 4.96%, 4.02%, and 3.88% respectively [1][26]. - The conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value convertible bonds fell to 23.86% this week. Looking at the conversion premium rates by par - value intervals, the average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in the par - value intervals of 40 - 50, 90 - 100, and over 130 decreased, while the average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in the remaining par - value intervals increased [1][29]. - The yields of all classic convertible bond strategies were positive this week. The yield of the stock - biased strategy was 2.72%, the yield of the bond - biased strategy was 1.06%, the yield of the balanced strategy was 1.32%, the yield of the low - price strategy was 1.31%, and the yield of the double - low strategy was 1.94% [2][33]. - In terms of convertible bonds entering special periods, Hebang Convertible Bonds and Baolong Convertible Bonds entered the conversion and redemption periods; no convertible bonds announced redemption or non - redemption; Fengyu Convertible Bonds, Wanshun Convertible Bonds 2, and Shouhua Convertible Bonds announced formal downward revisions; Ruifeng Convertible Bonds, Dongcai Convertible Bonds, Lingkang Convertible Bonds, Jiuqiang Convertible Bonds, Shunbo Convertible Bonds, Shenghong Convertible Bonds, Lanfan Convertible Bonds, Qifan Convertible Bonds, Shengxun Convertible Bonds, and Yuxing Convertible Bonds announced non - downward revisions [2][39][42]. - No convertible bonds were announced for issuance this week. Eight listed companies announced the progress of convertible bond issuance, with a planned issuance scale of 7.372 billion yuan. Seven of them adopted a combined issuance method of priority placement, online pricing, and offline placement, and one was a private placement. Two passed the board of directors' proposals, five passed the general meetings of shareholders, and one was approved for registration [3][46]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Secondary Market Performance 1.1 This Week's Performance of Convertible Bond/Stock Market Indexes - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 427.47, with a weekly increase of 1.32% and a weekly trading volume of 242.319 billion yuan; the Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index closed at 376.36, with a weekly increase of 1.31% and a weekly trading volume of 94.108 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index closed at 306.83, with a weekly increase of 1.32% and a weekly trading volume of 155.172 billion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,342.00, with a weekly increase of 1.92% and a weekly trading volume of 2,113.529 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,126.83, with a weekly increase of 2.29% and a weekly trading volume of 3,176.346 billion yuan; the ChiNext Index closed at 2,011.77, with a weekly increase of 3.27% and a weekly trading volume of 1,489.326 billion yuan [13]. - The top three convertible bonds in terms of increase this week were Haomei Convertible Bonds (18.20%), Huaxiang Convertible Bonds (13.17%), and Outong Convertible Bonds (12.59%); the top three convertible bonds in terms of decrease were Fuxin Convertible Bonds (-1.93%), Shengxun Convertible Bonds (-1.95%), and Rundong Convertible Bonds (-2.14%) [13]. 1.2 This Week's Performance of Convertible Bond/Stock Market Industries - In the convertible bond market, the convertible bonds of industries such as national defense and military industry, household appliances, machinery and equipment, automobiles, and power equipment led the gains, with increases of 2.66%, 1.99%, 1.91%, 1.74%, and 1.62% respectively; only the media sector declined, with a drop of -0.7%. In the stock market, all sectors rose, with the national defense and military industry, communication, power equipment, and banking industries leading the gains, with increases of 6.33%, 4.96%, 4.02%, and 3.88% respectively [1][26]. - The conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value convertible bonds fell to 23.86% this week. Looking at the conversion premium rates by par - value intervals, the average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in the par - value intervals of 40 - 50, 90 - 100, and over 130 decreased, while the average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in the remaining par - value intervals increased [1][29]. 1.3 Performance of Classic Convertible Bond Strategies The yields of all classic convertible bond strategies were positive this week. The yield of the stock - biased strategy was 2.72%, the yield of the bond - biased strategy was 1.06%, the yield of the balanced strategy was 1.32%, the yield of the low - price strategy was 1.31%, and the yield of the double - low strategy was 1.94% [2][33]. 1.4 Performance of the Dynamic Pool of Convertible Bond Targets This Week The report provided the weekly performance, April performance, convertible bond prices, conversion values, and industries of 10 convertible bond targets such as Zhongte Convertible Bonds, Shanlu Convertible Bonds, and Heshun Convertible Bonds [38]. 1.5 Convertible Bonds Entering Special Periods This Week - Hebang Convertible Bonds and Baolong Convertible Bonds entered the conversion and redemption periods [39]. - No convertible bonds announced redemption or non - redemption [41]. - Fengyu Convertible Bonds, Wanshun Convertible Bonds 2, and Shouhua Convertible Bonds announced formal downward revisions [42]. - Ruifeng Convertible Bonds, Dongcai Convertible Bonds, Lingkang Convertible Bonds, Jiuqiang Convertible Bonds, Shunbo Convertible Bonds, Shenghong Convertible Bonds, Lanfan Convertible Bonds, Qifan Convertible Bonds, Shengxun Convertible Bonds, and Yuxing Convertible Bonds announced non - downward revisions [42][44]. 2. This Week's Convertible Bond Primary Market Situation 2.1 Convertible Bonds Announced for Issuance This Week No convertible bonds were announced for issuance this week [45]. 2.2 Progress of Convertible Bond Issuance Proposals Announced This Week Eight listed companies announced the progress of convertible bond issuance, with a planned issuance scale of 7.372 billion yuan. Seven of them adopted a combined issuance method of priority placement, online pricing, and offline placement, and one was a private placement. Two passed the board of directors' proposals, five passed the general meetings of shareholders, and one was approved for registration [46].
市场周观察05月第2期:再论红利的必要性和终点
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-05-11 13:15
[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 策略专题报告 再论红利的必要性和终点 市场周观察 05 月第 2 期 报告摘要: [Table_Summary] 红利持续缩圈,TOP4 均为银行。我们梳理目前的红利方向:(1)考虑 业绩波动对于分红的影响,连续多个季度 EPS 保持稳定,或者存在向上 的预期;(2)考虑股价对于股息率的影响,筛选>2%的方向,相对 10Y 国债收益率仍具有绝对性价比。目前筛选的方向中:TOP4 均为银行的二 级行业,国有大型银行、农商行、城商行、股份制银行;以及消费白马, 厨卫电器、白酒、白色家电;此外,交运物流保持在 3%左右的股息;而 此前明显强势的煤炭已经不在此列。 高实际利率偏好于稳定性资产。(1)传统观点认为红利占优在于无风险 利率的下行,因此拥有类债属性的红利风格凭借更高的股息率走强。但 从历史规律看,2020 年以前,国内无风险利率更多与中证红利/万得全 A 的收益同向变动;但在 2022 年后,红利股走强的逻辑并不能够用无风险 利率波动简单解释,红利风格的定价模式似乎出现变化。(2)如果我们 考虑实际利率对于资产价格的影响,我们引入了无风险利率-PPI 来指代 实 ...
濮耐股份(002225):系列深度报告一:耐材主业出海领先,2025年盈利预期改善
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-05-09 07:56
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company has a leading position in the refractory materials industry, with significant growth potential in its active magnesium oxide business for wet metallurgy [3][15] - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability from its domestic refractory business in 2025, driven by improved competition dynamics and raw material price stabilization [2][3] Company Overview - Established in 2002 and listed in 2008, the company has over 30 years of experience in high-temperature industrial products and solutions [15] - The company has expanded internationally since 2000, with production bases in the USA and Serbia, and a strong brand presence [15][16] - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 5.19 billion yuan and a net profit of 140 million yuan [1] Industry Overview - The refractory materials industry in China is under pressure, with a projected production of 22.07 million tons in 2024, down 4% year-on-year, primarily due to the downturn in the steel industry [2][54] - The steel industry is the main downstream market for refractory materials, accounting for approximately 70% of demand [58] Domestic Refractory Business - The competitive landscape is expected to improve due to rising concentration in the steel industry and enhanced environmental standards [2][79] - The company’s revenue from overall contracting services in 2024 is expected to account for 49% of total revenue [79] Overseas Refractory Business - The company is positioned to benefit from its overseas operations, with 28% of revenue coming from international markets in 2024 [2][16] - The company has established a direct sales network overseas, making it the first domestic refractory materials company to do so [16] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenue growth from 5.61 billion yuan in 2025 to 6.37 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit expected to rise from 299 million yuan to 498 million yuan over the same period [4] - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 18, 14, and 11, respectively [3] Raw Material Prices - The price of alumina is expected to decline in 2025, while magnesium sand prices may stabilize or increase [2][3][72]
德业股份(605117):新产品+新市场双重赋能,高增长有望持续
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-05-08 14:57
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 107 CNY for the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 11.206 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 49.83%, and a net profit of 2.960 billion CNY, up 65.29% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [1]. - The growth in the energy storage sector is driven by emerging markets, with the inverter business generating 5.56 billion CNY in revenue, a 25.44% increase year-on-year, and the energy storage battery pack business achieving 2.45 billion CNY, a remarkable 177.19% increase year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, with a significant 83.20% increase in export revenue, establishing a broad dealer network in countries like Germany, Pakistan, Brazil, Ukraine, and India [2]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 14.836 billion CNY, 18.729 billion CNY, and 23.603 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 3.640 billion CNY, 4.584 billion CNY, and 5.471 billion CNY for the same years [4][10]. - The gross profit margin for the inverter business in 2024 was approximately 47.81%, while the energy storage battery pack business saw a gross margin of about 41.3%, reflecting a significant improvement [1][4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are expected to grow from 4.76 CNY in 2025 to 8.47 CNY in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 17.82 to 10.40 over the same period [4][10].
长源东谷(603950):传统业务稳健深耕,新能源业务蓬勃发展
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-05-08 03:37
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][9]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated robust growth in both traditional and new energy sectors, achieving a record high revenue of 1.92 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 30.38% [2][3]. - The new energy hybrid business has seen explosive growth, with sales of hybrid cylinder blocks and cylinder heads increasing sixfold, driven by major clients like BYD and Seres [2][3]. - The company is implementing a "dual-track strategy" that integrates traditional and new energy businesses, allowing it to meet diverse market demands and mitigate industry downturns [2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 230 million yuan, up 5.37% year-on-year, while Q1 2025 net profit surged by 65.80% to 78 million yuan [1][2]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 2.48 billion, 3.20 billion, and 4.13 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 350 million, 451 million, and 537 million yuan [4][3]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to grow from 0.74 yuan in 2024 to 1.66 yuan by 2027, reflecting a strong upward trend in profitability [4][3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is expanding its customer base in traditional commercial vehicles while also penetrating new markets such as engineering machinery and marine applications [2][3]. - The introduction of automated production lines and smart manufacturing technologies has significantly enhanced production efficiency and order fulfillment capabilities [3][2]. - The company is focused on building technical barriers through innovation in product design and manufacturing processes, which positions it favorably in the competitive landscape of the hybrid vehicle market [3][2].
粤海饲料(001313):Q1销售实现开门红,期待全年业绩回暖
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-05-07 11:23
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.912 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 13.98%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -85 million yuan, indicating a loss compared to the previous year [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 933 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.58%, with a net profit of -25 million yuan, showing a significant reduction in losses [1]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in performance driven by improved market conditions in the aquaculture sector, which is anticipated to boost feed demand [3]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In 2024, the company faced a decline in feed sales volume to 787,100 tons, down 9.6% year-on-year due to a sluggish market and adverse weather conditions [2]. - The company has successfully launched new products, with certain feed types like tilapia feed and sea bass feed experiencing growth rates of 15%-40% [2]. - In Q1 2025, feed sales volume reached 117,400 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.2% [2]. Financial Management - The company has strengthened its accounts receivable management, leading to a significant reduction in bad debt provisions, which decreased by 87.85% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [3]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 250 million, 330 million, and 430 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.4, 0.5, and 0.6 yuan [3]. Market Outlook - The report highlights that the recovery in aquaculture prices since early 2025 is expected to enhance the willingness of farmers to invest in seedlings, further driving feed demand [2]. - The company is actively pursuing growth strategies, including the development of new bases in Vietnam and Anhui, as well as mergers and acquisitions, which are expected to contribute to its long-term growth potential [3].
呈和科技(688625):Q1业绩创新高,成核剂国产替代进程有望加速
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-05-07 07:12
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% within the next six months [4]. Core Insights - The company achieved record high performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 2.20 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.97%, and a net profit of 0.71 billion yuan, up 15.82% year-on-year [1]. - The sales volume of nucleating agents increased by 26.53% in 2024, contributing to the company's historical high performance across various metrics [1]. - The domestic substitution process for nucleating agents is expected to accelerate due to tariff countermeasures, with the import substitution rate projected to rise from 30% in 2023 to 34% in 2025 [1]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 8.82 billion yuan, a 10.31% increase from the previous year, and a net profit of 2.50 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.68% growth [3]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.10 billion yuan, 3.74 billion yuan, and 4.15 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21.83X, 18.09X, and 16.29X [2][3]. - The company's design capacity for nucleating agents reached 25,760 tons by the end of 2024, with significant production capacity expansions planned [1]. Acquisition Plans - The company plans to acquire at least 51% of Yingri Technology, which specializes in high-performance sputtering targets, aiming for synergies in customer resources and brand influence [2].
2025年5月7日国新办新闻发布会点评:双降落地后,债市怎么看?
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-05-07 06:45
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The central bank's implementation of a double - cut (reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut) is in line with expectations and is a specific implementation of the Politburo meeting spirit [1]. - After the double - cut policy is implemented, the bond market yield first falls and then rises, which is a normal market reaction [1]. - Currently, there are no factors that can trigger a significant interest rate callback. The current policies are relatively mild, and there are contradictions between short - term shocks and long - term structural transformation in the fundamentals [2]. - Sino - US negotiations are unlikely to reach a consensus in the short term, and even if an agreement is reached, the tariff situation will not be better than before April 2, 2025. The negative impact of the negotiations will not be long - lasting [2]. - In the short term, there may be an impact of profit - taking by trading desks on short - term interest rates, but it is still logical to be bullish in the long run. After a callback, it is advisable to adopt a duration strategy for active left - side layout. There is no need to be overly bearish on the bond market before the fundamentals show a trend improvement [2]. - The short - term Sino - US negotiations will cause emotional disturbances to gold, but the central bank's gold - buying logic is still strongly supported. The recent phased callback of gold is not a trend reversal and may provide an opportunity [2]. 3) Summaries Based on Related Contents A. Double - cut Analysis - The double - cut announced by the central bank on May 7, 2025, is in line with expectations as the mention of "timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts" in the Politburo meeting on April 25 increased the probability of such cuts in May - June [1]. - After the double - cut, the yields of long - term and ultra - long - term bonds first dropped rapidly and then rebounded, which is related to profit - taking after the good news, Sino - US negotiation news, and the stock - bond seesaw effect [1]. B. Interest Rate Callback Risk - The current policies are relatively mild, and after the double - cut, DR007 has further dropped to around 1.6%. The contradictions between short - term shocks and long - term structural transformation in the fundamentals make it difficult to drive a significant interest rate callback [2]. C. Sino - US Negotiations - Sino - US negotiations are unlikely to reach a consensus in the short term. Even if a phased agreement is reached, the tariff situation will not be better than before April 2, 2025. The current leading style is tougher, reflecting the attitude towards tariffs. The negative impact of the negotiations will not be long - lasting [2]. D. Investment Strategies - Although short - term interest rates may be affected by trading desk profit - taking, it is still logical to be bullish in the long run. After a callback, a duration strategy for active left - side layout can be adopted. There is no need to be overly bearish on the bond market before the fundamentals improve [2]. - The short - term Sino - US negotiations will cause emotional disturbances to gold, but the central bank's gold - buying logic is still strongly supported. The recent phased callback of gold may provide an opportunity [2].
安克创新(300866):2024年年报及2025年一季报点评:多品类协同促增长,盈利韧性凸显
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-05-07 06:45
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, upgraded from a previous "Hold" rating [5][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 24.71 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 41.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.11 billion yuan, up 30.9% year-on-year [2]. - The energy storage business experienced explosive growth, with revenue reaching 3.02 billion yuan in 2024, a staggering increase of 184% year-on-year, contributing to 12.2% of total revenue [3]. - The company optimized its traditional business structure, maintaining stable revenue contributions from charging products while expanding its global reach, covering 146 countries and regions [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 43.3%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 8.8%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company forecasts revenue growth for 2025-2027 at 33.6%, 27.7%, and 23.6% respectively, with net profit growth projected at 28.9%, 23.8%, and 22.8% [5]. - The financial summary indicates a total revenue of 33.01 billion yuan for 2025, with a net profit of 2.73 billion yuan [6][12]. Business Development - The company’s charging product revenue remains stable, with new product iterations like GaN fast charging and wireless car charging maintaining higher average selling prices [4]. - The online sales channel accounted for 71% of total revenue in 2024, with significant contributions from platforms like Amazon [4]. - The company is leveraging its supply chain flexibility in emerging markets to mitigate trade policy risks, indicating potential for growth in regions like Southeast Asia and Australia [4].
中大力德(002896):点评报告:主业稳健增长,人形机器人业务未来可期
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-05-06 11:08
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a potential stock price increase of 5% to 15% over the next six months [4]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady growth in its core business, particularly in the intelligent transmission sector, with a comprehensive product lineup including harmonic reducers, RV reducers, and planetary reducers. This positions the company well to meet diverse customer needs and enhance integration efficiency [9]. - The humanoid robot business is progressing well, with plans to invest 200 million in a new precision component production line, aiming to capitalize on the expected growth in the humanoid robot market [9]. - Financial forecasts predict the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will reach 0.85 billion, 1.09 billion, and 1.33 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 161.75, 126.41, and 103.30 [9]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 1,086 million, with a year-on-year growth of 20.99%. However, a decline of 10.10% is expected in 2024, followed by a recovery with projected growth rates of 13.01%, 12.88%, and 12.96% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 73 million, with a slight increase of 10.22%. The forecast for 2024 shows a minor decline of 0.82%, but significant growth is expected in the following years [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 0.48, projected to increase to 0.56 in 2025, 0.72 in 2026, and 0.88 in 2027 [2]. Product Performance - The company reported a revenue of 3.45 billion from deceleration motors, a slight increase of 0.78%, while precision reducers generated 2.43 billion, up by 1.07%. However, the intelligent execution units saw a significant decline in revenue by 23.65% [3]. - The gross margin improved to 29.21%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.24 percentage points, indicating effective cost management despite a slight revenue decline [3]. Market Position - The company is well-positioned in the rapidly growing humanoid robot market, with expectations of reaching one million units by 2027. The current global production capacity for harmonic reducers is insufficient to meet demand, suggesting a strategic advantage for the company as it expands production [9].