锂电池产业链 买入（维持） 归母净利润同比增三成，盈利能力保持韧性 公 司 点 评 2025 年 4 月 15 日 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 事件：4月14日晚间，公司发布2025年一季度报告。 分析师：黄秀瑜 SAC 执业证书编号： 点评： ROE（%,TTM） 20.55 12 月最高价(元) 301.50 12 月最低价(元) 166.80 股价走势 资料来源：iFinD，东莞证券研究所 表 1：公司盈利预测简表（截至 2025/4/14） 宁德时代（300750）2025 年一季报点评 S0340512090001 电话：0769-22119455 邮箱：hxy3@dgzq.com.cn 主要数据 2025年Q1归母净利润同比增三成，现金流持续强劲。公司2025年Q1实现 营收847.05亿元，同比增长6.18%；实现归母净利润139.63亿元，同比增 长32.85%；扣非后净利润118.29亿元，同比增长27.92%。Q1公司锂电池 出货量超120GWh，同比增长超 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock performance that will exceed the market index by more than 15% over the next six months [7]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 128.17 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.14%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 35.77% to 7.53 billion yuan. After excluding the negative impact from the Shenzhen Digital International Innovation Center (IIC), the net profit was 13.05 billion yuan, showing positive growth [2][4]. - The company's IT distribution and value-added services generated a revenue of 1244.51 billion yuan, up 6.84% year-on-year. The proprietary brand products business saw a revenue increase of 20.25% to 45.81 billion yuan, while the cloud services and software business grew by 18.75% to 29.65 billion yuan [4][5]. - The company has made significant strides in its AI-driven cloud services, particularly in the automotive sector, signing contracts with 18 strategic automotive enterprises in 2024. Additionally, the company has expanded its partnerships with major cloud service providers and launched an AI-native empowerment platform [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 1281.66 billion yuan, a 7.14% increase year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.53 billion yuan, down 35.77%, while the net profit after excluding the IIC impact was 13.05 billion yuan, maintaining positive growth [2][4]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 4.21%, an increase of 0.22 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 0.61%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points [4]. Business Segments - The IT distribution and value-added services segment generated 1244.51 billion yuan in revenue, a 6.84% increase year-on-year. The proprietary brand products segment achieved 45.81 billion yuan, up 20.25%, and the cloud services and software segment reached 29.65 billion yuan, growing 18.75% [4][5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from its deep integration with the Huawei supply chain, particularly in the context of the emerging trends in AI and computing power. The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are 1.76 yuan and 2.32 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21 and 16 [4][5].

Market Performance - The three major indices continued their rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3262.81, up 0.76% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9884.30, up 0.51%, while the CSI 300 Index rose 0.23% to 3759.14 [2] - The ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index also saw increases of 0.34% and 0.25%, respectively [2] Sector Rankings - The top five performing sectors included Textiles and Apparel (up 2.56%), Coal (up 2.50%), and Nonferrous Metals (up 2.46%) [3] - The sectors that experienced declines were Household Appliances (down 0.60%) and Food and Beverage (down 0.36%) [3] - Notable concept indices with significant gains included Hainan Free Trade Zone (up 5.71%) and Football Concept (up 5.34%) [3] Market Outlook - The market showed strong performance with over 4500 stocks rising, and more than a hundred stocks hitting the daily limit up for five consecutive trading days [4] - In Q1, China's export scale exceeded 6 trillion yuan, achieving a growth rate of 6.9%, indicating strong resilience [4] - The export of high-end, intelligent, and green products, such as wind turbines and lithium batteries, saw significant growth, with wind turbine exports increasing by 43.2% [5] - The People's Bank of China reported a social financing scale increase of 15.18 trillion yuan in Q1, indicating ample monetary policy space [5] - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as finance, public utilities, consumption, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and nonferrous metals for potential investment opportunities [5]

证券研究报告 2025 年 4 月 14 日 星期一 【新股发行跟踪（20250414）】 一、上周新股表现情况 上周（4 月 7 日-4 月 11 日）共有 3 只新股上市，上市首日涨跌幅均值 为 310.26%。其中，有 3 只新股上市首日涨幅超 100%，为泰禾股份、泰鸿 万立、中国瑞林。上周无新股首日破发。 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 二、周度新股上市情况走势 从周度新股上市规模来看，上周（4 月 7 日-4 月 11 日，下同）较上上 周（3 月 31 日-4 月 4 日，下同）相比，首发募资金额多 13.23 亿元。 | 表 | 2：周度新股上市概况 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期间 | 新股上市数（主 | 首发募资 | 首日破 | 首日涨超 | 首日涨跌幅范围 | 首日涨跌幅 | | | | 板/双创） | （亿元） | 发率 | 100%数量 | | 均值 | | 4-7 至 | 4-11 | 3 (2/1) | 18.10 | 0% | 3 | (253.95%，386.84 ...

锂电池产业链 超配（维持） 3 月动力电池装车量同环比快速增长 锂电池产业链跟踪点评 事 件 点 评 事件： 2025 年 3 月新能源汽车产销量及动力电池装车量数据公布。 点评： 3月新能源汽车产销同环比快速增长。根据中汽协数据，2025年3月新能源汽车产销分别完成127.7万 辆和123.7万辆，同比分别增长47.9%和40.1%，环比分别增长43.81%和38.68%。其中，纯电动销量80.6 万辆，同比增长42.5%，环比增长48.16%；插电式混动销量43.1万辆，同比增长35.8%，环比增长23.85%。 1-3月新能源汽车产销分别完成318.2万辆和307.5万辆，同比分别增长50.4%和47.1%。其中，纯电动 销量192.8万辆，同比增长47.7%；插电式混动销量114.5万辆，同比增长46.1%。3月新能源汽车渗透 率42.4%，环比上升0.5pct；1-3月渗透率41.2%。3月新能源汽车出口15.8万辆，同比增长26.8%，环 比增长20.1%，占出口总量的31.2%；1-3月出口44.1万辆，同比增长43.9%，占出口总量的31%。 行 业 研 究 3月动力电池装车量同环比快速增长， ...

基础化工行业 | 司 点 评 买入（维持） 2025 年 4 月 14 日 | 公 | 基础化工行业 年一季度业绩预告点评 一季度制冷剂价格继续上涨，公司业绩大幅预增 | 三美股份（603379）2025 投资要点： | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师：卢立亭 |  | 公司发布2025年一季度业绩预告，预计公司2025年一季度实现归属于上 | | | SAC 执业证书编号： | | 市公司股东的净利润为36,938.69万元到42,848.89万元，同比增长 | | | S0340518040001 | | 139.41%到177.71%；实现归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净 | | | 电话：0769-22177163 | | 利润为36,467.63万元到42,377.83万元，同比增长136.29%到174.58%。 | | | 公 邮箱： | | | | | 司 luliting@dgzq.com.cn |  | 制冷剂产品2025Q1继续涨价，公司业绩同比大幅预增。2025年，第二代 | | | 研 | | 氟制冷剂（HCFCs）生产配额进一步削减，第三 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market continued to rebound, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains [1] - Major indices opened lower but turned positive by midday, with the ChiNext Index rising over 2% at one point [3] - The overall market saw more stocks rising than falling, with over 3,200 stocks increasing in value and more than 100 stocks hitting the daily limit up [3] Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,238.23, up 0.45% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9,834.44, up 0.82% [2] - The ChiNext Index closed at 1,926.37, up 1.36% [2] - The STAR 50 Index rose by 2.07% to close at 1,011.71 [2] Sector Performance - The electronics sector led the gains with a rise of 3.77%, while the agriculture sector saw a decline of 3.18% [2] - Notable performing sectors included automotive (up 2.20%) and machinery equipment (up 1.33%) [2] - The semiconductor sector experienced a significant surge following new regulations on product origin recognition [4] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market is expected to stabilize and recover as previous risks are gradually released, with investment value becoming more apparent [5] - The introduction of a comprehensive "stabilization" policy package has exceeded market expectations, boosting investor confidence [5] - Key sectors to focus on include finance, public utilities, consumer goods, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and non-ferrous metals [5]

Market Overview - The market showed resilience this week, with the three major indices closing in the green despite a decline in individual stock performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 5.13%, and the ChiNext Index by 6.73% [1][9][12] - The market was supported by the "national team" stabilizing actions and expectations for domestic demand policies, leading to a recovery after a period of decline [2][12] Economic Analysis - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" has prompted proactive measures from China, with the national team maintaining market stability. This is expected to impact the US economy negatively and increase inflationary pressures [2][9] - March CPI showed a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, with a narrowing drop compared to February. The core CPI, however, rose by 0.5%, indicating a mild improvement in consumer demand [10][12] - The PPI for March decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, influenced by falling international oil prices, which also affected domestic prices [10][12] Policy Outlook - The liquidity in April is expected to remain stable and slightly loose, with potential for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions. The central bank's recent operations indicate a supportive stance towards liquidity [11][12] - The government is likely to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies to counter external uncertainties, with a focus on boosting consumption and investment [10][11][12] Sector Recommendations - Investment focus is recommended on sectors such as finance, food and beverage, public utilities, retail, and technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) [3][12] Stock Performance Tracking - The report includes a tracking of potential stocks for April, with notable mentions such as China Rare Earth (up 7.99% over the period) and Haidilao (up 3.60%) [20][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on segments with domestic substitution logic and favorable supply-demand dynamics [1][34] - The recent trend of de-globalization has increased uncertainty in downstream demand for the basic chemical industry [34] Market Review - As of April 10, 2025, the CITIC basic chemical industry has seen a decline of 9.62% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.6 percentage points, ranking 26th among 30 sectors [12] - Year-to-date, the industry has decreased by 3.12%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.95 percentage points, ranking 16th [12] - The top five performing sub-sectors in the last two weeks include food and feed additives (-2.1%), daily chemicals (-2.2%), potassium fertilizer (-2.23%), civil explosives (-3.9%), and compound fertilizers (-5.16%) [16] - The bottom five performing sub-sectors include polyester (-16.74%), carbon fiber (-15.67%), other chemical raw materials (-14.75%), rubber additives (-14.26%), and lithium battery chemicals (-13.54%) [18] Chemical Product Price Trends - The top five chemical products with price increases in the last week include bromine (+13.82%), PVDF powder (+10.53%), dichloropropane-white material (+6.94%), ammonium sulfate (+5.63%), and dipentene (+2.44%) [21] - The top five products with price declines include liquid chlorine (-16.33%), butadiene (-14.73%), PX (-13.54%), crude benzene (-12.45%), and styrene-butadiene rubber (-11.93%) [25] Sector Insights - In the refrigerant sector, the long-term contract prices for refrigerants are expected to continue rising, with R32 at 46,600 yuan/ton (up 14.77% from Q1) and R410A at 47,600 yuan/ton (up 14.42% from Q1) [34] - In the sucralose sector, the report highlights that the demand is primarily in essential consumer goods, with low sensitivity to price increases [34] - The lubricating oil additives market is dominated by four major companies, and domestic high-end products rely on imports, with potential for domestic substitution due to geopolitical tensions [34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [2][44]. Core Insights - The communication industry is currently in a phase of technological iteration and policy benefits, with new growth drivers emerging from AI, quantum communication, and low-altitude economy. The construction of communication facilities such as base stations, optical cables, and data centers is expected to continue, leading to new demands for devices, equipment, and service operations. The report suggests focusing on opportunities under the themes of "technology commercialization + policy catalysis + performance certainty" [3][41]. Summary by Sections Industry Market Review - The communication sector has seen a cumulative decline of 9.73% over the past two weeks (March 28 to April 10), underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.71 percentage points. In April, the sector has dropped 9.63%, and year-to-date, it has decreased by 10.69%, also underperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.61 percentage points [11][12]. Industry News 1. IDC reported that the volcanic engine holds a 46.4% market share in China's public cloud large model service market as of 2024 [17][18]. 2. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is working on improving the 5G standard system and advancing research on 5G-A and 6G standards [19]. 3. IDC forecasts that China's total investment in artificial intelligence will exceed $100 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 35.2% [20]. 4. Juniper Research predicts that mobile operators will invest over $86 billion in AI from 2025 to 2029 [21]. 5. In February 2025, the domestic smartphone shipment reached 19.662 million units, a year-on-year increase of 37.9% [22]. Company Announcements - Yiyuan Communication expects a net profit of approximately 200 million yuan for the first quarter of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 265.19% [23][24]. - Zhongji Xuchuang anticipates a net profit of 1.4 to 1.7 billion yuan for the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 38.71% to 68.44% [25]. - StarNet Ruijie expects a net profit growth of 211.64% to 298.20% for the first quarter of 2025 [26]. Industry Data Updates - As of February 2025, the mobile phone user base reached approximately 1.793 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.84% [27]. - The internet broadband access user base was about 675 million, up 6.04% year-on-year [30]. - The total length of optical cable lines reached approximately 72.88 million kilometers by Q4 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.31% [32]. - By December 2024, the number of 5G base stations reached 4.251 million, with a net increase of 874,000 from the previous year [37]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as China Telecom (601728.SH), FiberHome (600498.SH), and Weisheng Information (688100.SH) as potential investment opportunities [41][42].