Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Views - The coal price at ports has rebounded due to supply constraints, with the northern port's thermal coal price reaching 709 RMB/ton on October 11, an increase of 8 RMB/ton compared to September 28 [3][15] - The supply side has tightened due to rainfall and maintenance, while demand remains resilient, particularly in the chemical sector and electricity consumption [15][73] - The report highlights the investment value of coal companies, emphasizing their strong cash flow and high dividend yields, suggesting a focus on low-priced coal stocks [6][73] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - The supply side has tightened, with the capacity utilization rate in the Sanxi region decreasing by 0.24 percentage points to 90.44% as of October 8 [21] - The daily consumption of coastal and inland power plants has increased by 17.7 thousand tons and 69.2 thousand tons respectively [23] - The inventory at coastal and inland power plants reached 127.668 million tons as of October 9, a year-on-year increase of 0.611 million tons [15][29] Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate for coking coal mines decreased by 1.94 percentage points to 83.77% during the holiday period [40] - The price of main coking coal at the port was 1,630 RMB/ton as of October 11, down 120 RMB/ton from September 28 [41] - The average profit per ton of coking coal has turned positive, indicating improved profitability in the sector [55] Focus Companies - Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yancoal, all of which are recommended for investment due to their strong fundamentals and market positions [6][73]

Core Insights - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the humanoid robot industry, highlighting significant investment opportunities as the sector evolves and matures [1][16]. Industry Dynamics - ZhiYuan Robotics has partnered with Longqi Technology to create a new benchmark in AI manufacturing, securing a multi-billion yuan order for nearly 1,000 robots, marking one of the largest orders in the domestic industrial humanoid robot sector [5]. - In September 2025, the Chinese robotics industry saw a 40% increase in financing activities, with 56 financing events and a total estimated financing amount between 5.4 billion to 7.8 billion yuan, indicating strong market confidence [9]. - Yuanli Unlimited set a global record with a single order worth 260 million yuan for embodied intelligence technology, showcasing the transition of AI from laboratory to real-world applications [10]. Technological Advancements - FigureAI launched its third-generation humanoid robot, Figure03, featuring a complete redesign aimed at reducing manufacturing costs and enhancing suitability for home use [10]. - Qianxun Intelligent proposed a State-free Policy for visual-motor strategies, eliminating reliance on proprioceptive states, which enhances the robot's adaptability in dynamic environments [8]. Market Performance - The humanoid robot industry is expected to experience significant growth, potentially surpassing the automotive market, as companies continue to innovate and explore scalable production and commercial applications [16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with core component expertise and active involvement in humanoid robotics, recommending specific firms for investment consideration [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The tariff war escalation is a short - term external shock that may not change the underlying logic of bond market trading in the fourth quarter. The trading focus in the fourth quarter will still revolve around domestic policy variables, and the current external event mainly creates structural trading opportunities [5][16]. - The negative factors in the bond market have been digested by the market, and their impact is weakening. The bond market has shown signs of stabilizing from over - decline since mid - September [7][12]. - The bond market has many positive factors, such as the possibility of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, weak economic fundamentals, reduced supply pressure in the fourth quarter, slow implementation of policy tools, and the possibility of the central bank restarting treasury bond transactions [7][13]. - If the current tariff war escalation triggers market risk - aversion sentiment, it may reproduce trading opportunities similar to those in April this year [7][16]. Summary by Directory 1. Negative Factors - Multiple negative factors have dominated the bond market since July, but their impact has weakened as they have been digested by the market. By mid - September, the bond market showed signs of stabilizing from over - decline. This is reflected in the weakening of the stock - bond seesaw effect, the current yield reaching the annual pressure upper limit, and the warming of bond market participants' sentiment [7][12]. 2. Positive Factors - There is room for the market's expectation of interest rate cuts to be repaired. There is still a possibility of reserve requirement ratio or interest rate cuts this year, and if the market expectation is repaired, it may form a positive for the bond market [14]. - The economic fundamentals are still weak, with low CPI growth and manufacturing PMI below the boom - bust line, which provides support for the bond market [14]. - The supply pressure of the bond market in the fourth quarter may be relatively relieved, reducing the upward pressure on interest rates [14]. - The implementation of policy - based financial tools is slow, and the short - term impact on the bond market is limited [15]. - The central bank may restart treasury bond transactions due to the mention in relevant meetings and the potential maturity of some bonds [15]. 3. Bond Market Outlook - The tariff war escalation is an external shock. If it triggers market risk - aversion sentiment, it may lead to a decline in the 10 - year treasury bond yield similar to that in April this year, presenting trading opportunities [16]. - The tariff event is a short - term shock and may not change the fourth - quarter trading logic. The trading focus will still be on domestic policy variables, and the impact of policy adjustments may be the re - allocation of existing funds rather than a systematic contraction [5][16].

Group 1: Company Insights - The report highlights the continuous improvement in the financial performance of Guoshengtang, with a revenue of 1.495 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a 9.5% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 152 million yuan, up 41.9% year-on-year [3][4] - Guoshengtang has launched 10 AI models in traditional Chinese medicine, enhancing service quality and patient experience through AI technology [3] - The company has maintained a high cash dividend and stock repurchase ratio, with a mid-year dividend of 0.35 HKD per share and a total repurchase amount of 166 million HKD as of October 3, 2025 [4] Group 2: Industry Trends - The report notes that the industrial automation sector is experiencing a recovery, with Inovance Technology achieving a revenue of 20.509 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 26.73% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.968 billion yuan, up 40.15% year-on-year [17][19] - The electric vehicle sector is also highlighted, with Inovance's revenue from this segment reaching 9 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 50% increase year-on-year, driven by new model launches and increased production [20] - The automotive industry is seeing a shift towards high-end and intelligent upgrades, supported by government policies encouraging vehicle replacement, which is expected to boost sales in 2025 [33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive sector [1] Core Insights - The automotive industry is expected to benefit from the continuation of the vehicle replacement policy in 2025, supporting upward consumer demand. The sector is undergoing a transformation towards high-end and intelligent upgrades, with a focus on companies that can provide quality vehicles priced above 300,000 yuan [6][15] - The report highlights several companies as potential beneficiaries: Li Auto, JAC Motors, Geely, BYD, and Great Wall Motors, with a recommendation to pay attention to Seres [6][15] - The report also notes that the penetration rate of advanced driving assistance systems is expected to increase significantly due to the "affordability" of high-level intelligent driving, recommending companies like XPeng Motors, Huayang Group, Desay SV, and Coboda [6][15] - The report emphasizes the potential for mass production of robots, recommending companies with high certainty and leading positions in the industry chain, such as Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, and Beite Technology [6][15] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The automotive sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 1.7% from September 29 to September 30, 2025, compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's increase of 1.4% [16] - Notable stock performances include Li Auto, XPeng Motors, NIO, and Geely, with respective changes of -4.6%, +1.5%, +6.2%, and +7.9% during the same period [16] Company Focus and Earnings Forecast - Key companies and their earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024 to 2026 are highlighted, with recommendations to buy for several companies including Silver Wheel, Baolong Technology, and BYD [8][53] - The report provides a detailed table of stock prices, EPS, and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for various companies, indicating a bullish outlook for the automotive sector [53] Industry Indicators - In August 2025, the automotive production and sales reached 2.815 million and 2.857 million units, respectively, showing a year-on-year growth of 13% and 16.4% [31] - The report notes that the production and sales of passenger vehicles were 2.5 million and 2.54 million units, with year-on-year growth of 12.5% and 16.5% [31]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that the cloud service business has turned profitable, driving overall profit growth for the company in the first half of 2025 [3][4] - The company reported a revenue of 4.343 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.88%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 183 million yuan, up 73.26% year-on-year [3][4] - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 improved significantly to 23.37%, an increase of 1.35 percentage points year-on-year, primarily driven by the rapid growth of the cloud service business [4] Group 2 - The cloud service revenue for the first half of 2025 was 1.274 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.96%, while the management software and IoT solutions reported revenues of 1.198 billion yuan and 1.872 billion yuan, showing slight declines of 0.34% and 4.46% respectively [4] - The operating profit from the cloud service business was 20 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a turnaround from a loss of 71 million yuan in the same period last year [4] - The company has launched the Haiyue Model V3.0, which enhances the intelligence of cloud service products and has been applied in various enterprises, including Beijing Tongrentang [6][7] Group 3 - The company has signed contracts with major state-owned enterprises for its management software, indicating a successful penetration into the market [8] - The IoT solutions focus on equipment manufacturing, smart manufacturing, and communication information, with significant projects signed in these areas [9] - The company forecasts revenues of 9.076 billion yuan, 10.022 billion yuan, and 10.996 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 541 million yuan, 653 million yuan, and 893 million yuan [9]

Group 1 - The report addresses how to quantify current market implied interest rate cut expectations through interest rate swap pricing and floating rate bond spread analysis, aiming to fill gaps in traditional liquidity analysis [3] - The analysis identifies four stages of interest rate cut expectations evolution since 2024, indicating a significant reversal in market expectations compared to the beginning of the year [4] - Current market pricing does not reflect further easing potential and may even imply a marginal tightening of policy, suggesting that if a rate cut signal is released in Q4, it could create a significant positive impact on the bond market due to the existing low market consensus [4] Group 2 - The report highlights three marginal changes in institutional behavior following the breach of interest rates, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6] - Fund managers have significantly reduced their duration, with the median duration of long-term bond funds dropping to 2.8 years, and net purchases of ultra-long government bonds turning negative since early September [7] - Banks have been actively buying 10-year government bonds, acting as a buffer during the recent bond market correction, while the trading volume of certain bonds has shown a rapid adjustment [8]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Bond Research Weekly for the 4th week of September 2025, focusing on bond market analysis from the perspective of institutional behavior [2][9] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The behavior of funds is crucial in the bond market, with their net purchases strongly correlated with interest rate trends. The instability of funds' liability side has increased due to the new sales fee regulations, and the impact of the regulations' implementation should be closely monitored [4][15] - The three institutional behavior changes (funds having nothing left to sell, brokerages closing short positions, and banks "picking up bargains") are favorable for the bond market. Future interest rates may decline due to funds repurchasing bonds, banks increasing allocations, and brokerages closing positions. Currently, interest rate products have a higher probability of success than Tier 2 and credit bonds [4][15] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Re - examination after Interest Rate Breakthrough 1.1 Three Changes in Institutional Behavior and Future Outlook - Funds are "sold out": Since Q3, funds have continuously reduced duration. As of September 26, 2025, the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds (including leverage) dropped to 2.8 years, and the cumulative net purchase of ultra - long treasury bonds (over 10Y) by funds has been negative since early September [3][9] - Brokerages are closing short positions: The borrowing volume of the top three active 10Y treasury bonds remains volatile, while that of 10Y CDB bonds has decreased, indicating brokerage short - position closing before the holiday [10] - Banks are "picking up bargains": Since August, joint - stock banks have continuously bought old 10Y treasury bonds, acting as a "buffer" during the bond market correction. Recently, Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have corrected rapidly, and funds are selling Tier 2 bonds more aggressively [3][14] 1.2 Yield Curve - Treasury bond yields generally increased. On a week - on - week basis, the 1Y yield decreased by 1bp, the 3Y yield increased by 3bp, the 5Y yield changed less than 1bp, the 7Y yield increased by 1bp, the 10Y yield changed less than 1bp, the 15Y yield increased by 1.5bp, and the 30Y yield increased by 2bp. In terms of percentiles, the 1Y dropped to the 10% percentile, and others had various percentile changes [16][18] - CDB bond yields also generally increased. The 1Y yield decreased by 0.5bp, the 3Y yield increased by 2bp, the 5Y yield increased by about 2.3bp, the 7Y yield increased by 4.6bp, the 10Y yield increased by 1.1bp, the 15Y yield increased by about 4.6bp, and the 30Y yield increased by 4.9bp. Percentiles also had corresponding changes [18] 1.3 Term Spread - The spread between treasury bonds and CDB bonds (1Y - DR001, 1Y - DR007) showed a differentiated trend, and the term spread generally widened [19] 2. Bond Market Leverage and Funding Situation 2.1 Leverage Ratio - From September 22 to September 26, 2025, the leverage ratio fluctuated and decreased. As of September 26, it was about 107.06%, up 0.32pct from last Friday and down 0.04pct from Monday [23] 2.2 Repurchase Transactions - From September 22 to September 26, the average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase was about 7.3 trillion yuan, up 0.1 trillion yuan from last week. The average daily trading volume of overnight pledged repurchase was 5.55 trillion yuan, down 0.72 trillion yuan month - on - month. The average overnight trading volume ratio was 75.72%, down 11.92pct month - on - month [27][28] 2.3 Funding Situation - From September 22 to September 26, bank - based fund lending first increased and then decreased. On September 26, the net lending of large and policy banks was 4.09 trillion yuan, and joint - stock, city, and rural commercial banks had a net borrowing of 0.28 trillion yuan. The main fund borrowers were brokerages, and money market funds' lending decreased. DR007, R007, 1YFR007, and 5YFR007 all fluctuated and increased, with different changes compared to last Friday [30] 3. Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds 3.1 Overall Duration - From September 22 to September 26, the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds was 2.68 years (de - leveraged) and 2.79 years (including leverage). On September 26, the median duration (de - leveraged) remained unchanged from last Friday, and the median duration (including leverage) decreased by 0.01 year [41] 3.2 Duration by Bond Fund Type - As of September 26, the median duration of interest - rate bond funds (including leverage) dropped to 3.53 years, down 0.01 year from last Friday; the median duration of credit bond funds (including leverage) dropped to 2.52 years, up 0.01 year from last Friday. The de - leveraged durations also had corresponding changes [44] 4. Category Strategy Comparison - As of September 26, the Sino - US spread generally narrowed, and the implied tax rate (10Y CDB - treasury bond spread) narrowed at the short end and widened at the medium - and long - ends [48] 5. Bond Lending Balance Changes - On September 26, the lending concentration of active 10Y treasury bonds and 10Y CDB bonds increased, that of secondary active 10Y CDB bonds and active 30Y treasury bonds decreased, and that of secondary active 10Y treasury bonds remained unchanged. Except for brokerages, all other institutional lending concentrations increased [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report aims to address the core issues in interest rate research by combining "longitudinal prediction" of liquidity and "horizontal pricing" of interest rates Through two technical routes - interest rate swap pricing and floating - rate bond spread analysis, it quantifies the implied interest - rate cut expectations in current market transactions, and based on the current market consensus, it assesses potential bond market expectations and investment opportunities if policy easing occurs [6][11][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 From the Core Issues of Fundamentals to Interest Rate Pricing Traditional liquidity analysis has limitations such as qualitative speculation, over - focus on history, and over - emphasis on the future Effective interest rate research needs to combine "longitudinal prediction" and "horizontal pricing", and the report uses two technical routes to analyze implied interest - rate cut expectations in market transactions to provide a basis for judging future bond market trends and investment opportunities [12][13] 3.2 Interest Rate Swap Pricing 3.2.1 How to Observe Implied Interest - Rate Cut Expectations through Interest Rate Swaps? The market's expectation of policy rate cuts can be approximated as the expectation of a decline in the future funding rate center Interest rate swaps, such as 1Y FR007, can provide a fair market indicator The spread between 1Y FR007 and the current FR007 is an effective proxy variable for measuring interest - rate cut expectations Since 2024, the evolution of interest - rate cut expectations can be divided into four stages: in 2024H1, expectations were flat; in 2024H2, expectations rapidly increased; from February to March 2025, expectations were revised; from Q2 2025 to the present, expectations gradually cleared [14][15] 3.2.2 Is the Interest - Rate Cut Expectation Predicted by Interest Rate Swaps Reliable? Interest rate swaps have two advantages: they truly reflect market consensus as the prices are formed by real - money transactions, and active trading ensures pricing efficiency However, differences in investor structure and trading motivation between the interest rate swap market and the cash bond market may lead to short - term pricing deviations [19][20] 3.3 Floating - Rate Pricing The report selects floating - rate bonds linked to DR007 as research objects and uses the spread between the floating - rate bond's yield to maturity and the benchmark interest rate as the core observation indicator Since last December, the spread trend can be divided into three stages: from December last year to January this year, the spread converged rapidly; from February to March this year, the spread widened significantly; from Q2 this year to the present, the spread remained high and continued to rise, indicating a significant reversal of the market's easing expectations compared to the beginning of the year [21][25][27] 3.4 Summary Through cross - verification of the two technical routes, the current market's interest - rate cut expectations have basically cleared, and the current pricing may even imply a marginal tightening of policies If an interest - rate cut signal is released or an actual cut occurs in the fourth quarter, it may form an expectation gap with the current low market consensus, which is beneficial to the bond market However, interest rate trends are affected by multiple factors and need further analysis [28]

Group 1: Company Insights - The report highlights the emergence of China's "Stargate" project, which aims to solidify the core position of domestic computing power, with the successful integration of four national-level computing platforms and six data centers into the Yangtze River Delta hub in Wuhu [4][5] - The computing power public service platform in Wuhu has connected to 34 data centers, aggregating nearly 640P of general computing power, 26,000P of intelligent computing power, 33.3P of supercomputing power, and 2,070 qubits of quantum computing power [4][5] - The report indicates that the share of intelligent computing power in China's total computing power is expected to rise from 3% in 2016 to 35% by 2025, with over 250 intelligent computing centers already established or under construction [5][6] Group 2: Industry Trends - The report discusses the strategic restructuring of coal assets between Pingmei Group and Henan Energy Group, which is seen as a timely move for regional coal asset reorganization [14] - The coal industry is experiencing a slight decrease in port coal prices, while pithead coal prices continue to rise, indicating a mixed supply-demand scenario [15] - The report notes that the petrochemical industry is expected to see an average annual growth of over 5% in added value from 2025 to 2026, driven by a new growth plan released by seven government departments [19][20]