Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the computer industry, indicating a favorable outlook for the sector [1]. Core Insights - Tesla's Robotaxi is approaching commercialization, with plans to expand from an initial fleet of 10 vehicles to 1,000 within months, starting operations in Austin and expanding to cities like San Francisco and Los Angeles [2][3]. - The core advantages of Tesla's Robotaxi include significant data advantages, a strong computational barrier with a fleet of 5 million vehicles equipped with FSD hardware, and a cost advantage where production costs are projected to be only 20%-25% of Waymo's [2]. - The report identifies three key elements for the large-scale commercialization of Robotaxi: improved algorithm capabilities, reduced hardware costs, and supportive policies [3]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - Elon Musk announced the tentative public trial date for Tesla's Robotaxi on June 22, 2025, marking a significant milestone in its operational timeline [1]. Market Potential - The global market for Robotaxi is projected to reach RMB 834.9 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 239% from 2024 to 2030, and China expected to dominate this market [8]. Operational Performance - Companies like Pony.ai, WeRide, and others have deployed over 1,000 Robotaxis, with significant growth in passenger orders and operational scale [9]. - For instance, Pony.ai reported an 800% increase in passenger order revenue in Q1 2025, with plans to reach 1,000 vehicles by year-end [9]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights key players in the Robotaxi space, including Wanma Technology, Horizon Robotics, and others, indicating a competitive environment with various companies actively deploying and scaling their Robotaxi fleets [9].

Liquidity - The central bank implemented a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut of 0.5 percentage points and a loan prime rate (LPR) reduction of 10 basis points, leading to a net liquidity injection of CNY 599.8 billion in May[44] - The liquidity environment has further eased, with the weighted average interest rate for net financing from major banks and policy banks declining in May[44] Equity Market - Broad-based ETFs experienced a net outflow of CNY 34.8 billion, while the Sci-Tech ETF saw a net inflow of CNY 50 billion, indicating a divergence in investor sentiment[9][10] - The technology sector ETF recorded its largest monthly inflow of CNY 23.5 billion, while consumer and pharmaceutical ETFs faced significant outflows of CNY 22.5 billion and CNY 27 billion, respectively[16] Bond Market - Major banks and rural commercial banks began net buying old bonds in May, with net selling of interest rate bonds decreasing to CNY 1.909 billion from CNY 3.555 billion in April[29] - Insurance companies net purchased CNY 1.908 billion in interest rate bonds, primarily focusing on 15-20 year and 20-30 year maturities[32] Commodity Market - Gold ETFs shifted from net inflow to net outflow, with a net outflow of CNY 4.4 billion in May, reflecting changing investor sentiment towards precious metals[39] - Other commodity ETFs, including non-ferrous and energy chemical ETFs, continued to experience outflows, totaling CNY 1.13 billion and CNY 0.17 billion, respectively[40] Risk Factors - Increased geopolitical risks, potential domestic macroeconomic policy shortcomings, and the possibility of an overseas economic recession pose significant risks to market stability[47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply of thermal coal is tightening in major production areas, with expectations for demand to rebound during the peak season [1][4] - The report highlights a stable port coal price of 609 RMB/ton as of June 13, 2025, with a decrease in production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region by 2.48 percentage points due to frequent safety and environmental inspections [4][13] - The report emphasizes the resilience of high-calorific imported coal prices, while low-calorific coal has seen a slight recovery in cost-effectiveness [4][13] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - Port inventory continues to decrease, with a week-on-week decline of 64.10 thousand tons in northern ports [30] - Daily coal consumption in coastal and inland power plants shows mixed trends, with coastal consumption increasing by 3.7 thousand tons and inland decreasing by 7.6 thousand tons [22][30] - The report anticipates a reduction in hydropower generation due to increased outflow from the Three Gorges Dam, which may lead to a recovery in thermal power demand [13][30] Coking Coal - Supply of coking coal has contracted, with a week-on-week decrease in production capacity utilization by 0.86 percentage points [5][40] - Despite a slight decrease in supply, demand remains weak, leading to an increase in inventory levels at coking coal production enterprises by 16.81 thousand tons [6][40] - The report indicates that coking coal prices are under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand [6][41] Coking Coke - Coking coke prices have undergone three rounds of reductions, impacting profit margins for coking enterprises [51] - The report notes a decrease in production rates at coking plants, with a utilization rate of 75.77% [51][56] - Coking coke inventory continues to rise, although the rate of increase has slowed [51][66] Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report identifies key companies to watch, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, with a focus on their strong cash flow and high asset quality [7][8] - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024A, 2025E, and 2026E for various companies, indicating a generally positive outlook for the sector [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is set to absorb and merge with Zhongke Shuguang, aiming to create a world-class intelligent computing center [5][6] - The merger is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in the chip sector and integrate resources from Zhongke Shuguang in machine and data center infrastructure [5][6] - The transaction will simplify governance structures and optimize resource allocation, leading to improved operational efficiency and shareholder returns [7] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The company's stock performance over the last year shows a 91.0% increase compared to the benchmark index, CSI 300, which only increased by 9.6% [3] - As of June 13, 2025, the current stock price is 137.06 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 318.57 billion yuan [3] Merger Details - The merger involves a share exchange where the company will issue A-shares to Zhongke Shuguang's shareholders at a premium of 10% [5] - The exchange ratio is set at 1:0.5525, with the company's share price for the exchange at 143.36 yuan per share [5][8] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 147.93 billion yuan, 220.54 billion yuan, and 306.90 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 31.70 billion yuan, 48.34 billion yuan, and 73.23 billion yuan [9][10] - The expected EPS for the same period is projected to be 1.36 yuan, 2.08 yuan, and 3.15 yuan [9][10] Strategic Advantages - The merger is anticipated to create a closed-loop layout from high-end chip design to complete computing systems, enhancing the company's overall strength in the intelligent computing ecosystem [6][7] - The integration of Zhongke Shuguang's AI capabilities and applications is expected to drive long-term growth and operational synergies [6][7]

2025 年 06 月 15 日 资产配置报告 研究所： 证券分析师： 林加力 S0350524100005 linjl01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 徐凝碧 S0350524110001 xunb@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 财政发力支撑总量，M1 增速回升 资产配置报告 最近一年走势 相关报告 《公募 REITs 周报：二级市场表现领先，REITs 总 市值首破两千亿*林加力》——2025-06-09 《2025 年 6 月大类资产配置报告：审慎情绪延续， 聚焦结构性机会*林加力》——2025-06-05 《公募 REITs 周报：市场活跃度略降，交通基础设 施连续上涨*林加力》——2025-06-04 《公募 REITs 周报：市场持续活跃，保障房与交通 领涨*林加力》——2025-05-27 金如何配置行业*林加力》——2025-05-19 投资要点: 国海证券股份有限公司 【银行&资产配置小组介绍】 林加力，国海证券研究所副所长、首席资产配置官、金融首席分析师。毕业于浙江大学、复旦大学，曾就职于 海通证券、民生证券、浦发银行。2019-2023 年连续上榜新财富最 ...

2025 年 06 月 15 日 行业研究 研究所： 证券分析师： 谢文迪 S0350522110004 xiewd@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 林晓莹 S0350123070003 linxy02@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] "狮子的力量"撼动油市，地缘溢价能撑多久？ ——石油石化事件点评 最近一年走势 投资要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 2025 年 6 月中旬，以色列空袭伊朗前，美伊核谈已传出不容乐观的 消息，原油 VIX 直线飙升。据 Macrobond 数据，美伊达成协议的概 率从约 50%骤降至 25%左右。 事件发生后，市场担忧冲突影响原油供应，纷纷买入原油期货避险， 推动盘国际油价大幅飙升。据百度股市通，截至美东时间 6 月 12 日 22:50，美油 2507 合约上涨 11.96%，布油 2508 合约涨超 11%。同 时，黄金作为传统避险资产也出现拉升，COMEX 金 2506 合约上涨 1.7%。 伊朗是 OPEC 第三大产油国。截至 2021 年，伊朗石油探明储量达 2086 亿桶，约占全球总储量的 9%（2020 年数据）。20 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to the industry, indicating a favorable outlook for the sector's fundamentals and performance compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [11]. Core Insights - Quantum Song has acquired a 61% stake in Shenzhen Yiqi Culture Co., Ltd. (Letsvan) for 235 million RMB, marking its strategic entry into the trendy toy market and broader consumer goods sector [4]. - Letsvan operates multiple well-known IPs and has a growth strategy focused on enhancing retail partnerships, developing self-operated stores, and building comprehensive online sales capabilities [3]. - The financial performance of Quantum Song for FY2025Q1 shows a revenue of 570 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 39.6%, while the net profit increased by 181.2% to 41 million RMB [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Quantum Song is actively exploring business transformation, with online learning service revenues under pressure due to declines in various course offerings [4]. - Letsvan's IP sales have shown strong growth, with successful product launches and significant brand engagement through social media [5]. Market Expansion - The company has initiated localized operations in Southeast Asia and North America, with successful overseas pop-up events validating its international brand acceptance [5]. - Letsvan is establishing a standardized and scalable offline sales network across major cities in China, enhancing its market presence [5].

Core Insights - The report highlights the resilience of the company Kuaijishan (601579) in the yellow wine market, achieving growth despite an overall decline in sales revenue within the industry [3][4] - The company has undergone significant changes in its ownership structure and has implemented a clear product and channel strategy, leading to improved operational performance [6] Company Overview - Kuaijishan has a long history dating back to 1743, with its brand development rooted in the "Yunji Wine Workshop" [3] - The company was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2014, and its controlling shareholder changed from Jinggong Group to China Construction Trust at the end of 2022 [3] Financial Performance - The company is expected to achieve double-digit growth in revenue and profit for two consecutive years from 2023 to 2024, showcasing strong performance resilience [3] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 1.89 billion, 2.18 billion, and 2.50 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 245 million, 306 million, and 377 million yuan [6] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on three main strategies: high-end product development, targeting younger consumers, and expanding its market presence nationwide [4] - High-end products, particularly the Lanting series, are expected to generate over 100% growth in sales by 2024, while the innovative sparkling yellow wine "Yiri Yixun" is projected to see a 476% increase in sales [4] Industry Context - The yellow wine industry has faced challenges with declining sales revenue and profit since 2017, despite an increase in production [5] - The industry is undergoing a transformation with a focus on high-end and nationwide market expansion, as evidenced by recent price increases and consolidation among leading brands [5] Market Dynamics - The concentration of the yellow wine industry is increasing, with the CR3 (concentration ratio of the top three companies) rising from 21% in 2015 to 50% in 2023 [5] - The entry of external capital and acquisitions, such as Qingdao Beer’s announcement to acquire Jimo Yellow Wine, is expected to enhance the visibility and regional expansion of yellow wine [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Kuaijishan, has shown resilience and growth in a declining yellow wine market, achieving double-digit growth in revenue and profit for two consecutive years [8][14]. - The company is focusing on a strategy of "high-end, youth-oriented, and national expansion" to break through market challenges, with significant growth in its premium product lines and innovative marketing approaches [26][30]. - The yellow wine industry is facing challenges of increasing competition and price reductions, necessitating a shift towards high-end products to sustain growth [40][43]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Kuaijishan has a long history dating back to 1743, with a strong brand presence in the yellow wine market. The company has undergone significant changes in ownership and structure, enhancing its operational flexibility [8][13][14]. - The company has successfully transitioned to a private ownership model, which has allowed for clearer strategic direction and improved performance [16][21]. Financial Performance - The company has demonstrated a strong recovery, with revenue projected to reach 18.90 billion, 21.82 billion, and 24.98 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, and net profit expected to be 2.45 billion, 3.06 billion, and 3.77 billion yuan respectively [8][14]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.51, 0.64, and 0.79 yuan for the same period, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 43, 34, and 28 times [8]. Market Strategy - The company is implementing a dual-brand strategy with Kuaijishan and Lanting, focusing on high-end products and youth-oriented marketing to capture a broader consumer base [22][24]. - The introduction of innovative products like the sparkling yellow wine "One Day One Smoke" has significantly boosted sales, with a reported 476% year-on-year increase [26][30]. Industry Context - The yellow wine industry has been experiencing a decline in sales revenue and profit since 2017, with a need for high-end product development to counteract this trend [40][43]. - The industry is seeing increased concentration, with the top three brands' market share rising from 21% to 50% between 2015 and 2023, indicating a shift towards consolidation and competitive positioning [50][54].

Group 1 - The automotive business of the Weaponry Equipment Group will become an independent central enterprise, and Xiaomi Group held its 2025 Investor Day, indicating a high growth forecast for the year [3][4] - The A-share automotive sector underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index during the week of June 2-6, 2025, with the automotive sector index rising only 0.2% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 1.1% [3] - The restructuring of Changan Automobile's indirect controlling shareholder, the Weaponry Equipment Group, will not significantly impact the company's normal operations [3] Group 2 - Xiaomi Group expects a revenue growth of over 30% year-on-year for 2025, with a net profit increase of over 40% [4] - The company aims to achieve profitability in its smart electric vehicle business by Q3 2025 and plans to expand its overseas electric vehicle sales starting in 2027 [4] - Xiaomi has invested 13.5 billion yuan in its self-developed automotive semiconductor products as part of a ten-year plan [4] Group 3 - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from the continuation of the vehicle trade-in policy in 2025, which supports upward automotive consumption [5] - Recommended companies in the automotive sector include Li Auto, JAC Motors, Geely, BYD, and Great Wall Motors, with a focus on high-end vehicles [5] - The commercial vehicle sector is anticipated to recover in 2025, with recommendations for leading companies such as Foton Motor and China National Heavy Duty Truck [5] Group 4 - The pig farming industry may experience a price and policy turning point, with recommendations for companies like Wens Foodstuff Group and Muyuan Foods [11] - The poultry industry is facing challenges due to overseas avian influenza, but there is potential for price improvement in the future [12] - The pet medical industry is growing, with a market size of approximately 840 billion yuan, and investment opportunities are recommended in companies like Keqian Biology and Ruipin Biology [13] Group 5 - The food and beverage sector has shown a mixed performance, with the soft drink segment performing well, while the overall food and beverage index underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index [17] - The liquor sector is facing price pressures due to increased competition among e-commerce platforms during promotional events [18] - Recommended companies in the liquor sector include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [20] Group 6 - The REITs market has seen a total market value surpassing 200 billion yuan, with the REITs index outperforming other indices [23] - The transportation infrastructure sector has led the weekly gains among REITs, with specific REITs like the China Merchants Highway REIT showing significant increases [24] - The cash distribution rates for different types of REITs indicate a favorable environment for investment in the sector [26] Group 7 - The North Exchange is set to launch the Specialized and Innovative Index, which will provide a benchmark for investment in specialized small and medium enterprises [29] - The North Exchange 50 Index has shown a slight increase, with a focus on companies with stable growth and reasonable valuations [30] - Recommended companies include Tongli Co. and Hengtuo Technology, which are expected to benefit from infrastructure investments [30]