证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 12 08 年 月 日 宏观点评 通稿短、增量多—政治局会议 5 大信号 事件：12 月 8 日，政治局会议召开，分析研究 2026 年经济工作。 核心观点：12 月政治局会议历来是"吹风会"，篇幅一般有限、没提到的 不代表不重要、不宜过分解读，即将召开的中央经济工作会议将作详细部 署。总体看，本次会议信息量不少，尤其是：1）较为少见的盘中发布通 稿，旨在提振信心、进一步凸显了稳股市的重要性；2）总定调偏积极、偏 扩张、偏刺激，包括实现"十五五"良好开局是硬要求，延续"四稳"，延 续"更加积极有为的宏观政策"，延续"更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的 货币政策"，首提"发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应"，首提"加大逆周 期和跨周期调节力度"等；3）大原则上，"扩大内需"与"优化供给"并 重，"做优增量"与"盘活存量"并重，延续"两大更好统筹"（国内经济 工作 VS 国际经贸斗争，发展 VS 安全）；4）重点任务上，相比于"十五 五"规划建议稿，扩内需重回首位（突出内需主导），科技+产业次序仍靠 前（新动能从"加快培育"变为"加紧培育"），双碳移至民生前 ...

Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a volatile upward trend with significant sector performance divergence, led by non-ferrous metals, communication, and defense industries, while media, real estate, and beauty care sectors lagged behind [1][10][19] - The weekly trading volume reached a recent low of 1.56 trillion yuan on Thursday, indicating a continuation of low trading activity [1][10] - The current equity risk premium (ERP) for A-shares is 2.74%, reflecting a slight recovery in market risk appetite with a weekly change of -2.85 basis points [1][10] Group 2: Global Equity Markets - Global equity markets mostly rose, with the South Korean KOSPI leading the gains at 4.42%, followed by Vietnam and Taiwan [3][29] - The U.S. stock indices saw slight increases, driven by rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, particularly after a significant drop in private sector employment [3][32] Group 3: Commodity Prices and Trends - Commodity prices saw a comprehensive increase, with Brent crude oil, London gold, LME copper, and CRB commodities rising by 0.87%, 1.24%, 3.65%, and 0.56% respectively [4][36] - LME copper prices reached a new high, reflecting supply shortages and heightened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [4][19] Group 4: Policy Events - Fujian province announced 12 measures to promote cross-strait integration, including support for Taiwanese enterprises [5][46] - The successful launch of the Zhuque-3 reusable rocket marked a significant achievement in commercial aerospace [5][46]

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 12 08 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 利好 A 股的政策加码 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】政策半月观—利好 A 股的政策加码——20251207 【金融工程】当下的反弹大概率仍只是 30 分钟级别反弹——20251207 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：本周资金面好转，估值面弱化—— 20251206 【煤炭】聚焦 AI 带来的能源领域投资机会——20251207 【金融工程】行业 ETF 配置模型 2025 年超额 16.4%——20251205 【固定收益】单跌超长债背后的总量缺口和结构压力——20251207 【固定收益】信用如何突围——20251207 【固定收益】资金月初平稳，政府债融资显著回落——流动性和机构行 为跟踪——20251206 【建筑装饰】明年预计有多少保险资金增配建筑板块？——20251207 【纺织服饰】2026年度策略：推荐制造龙头，关注绩优品牌——20251206 【商贸零售】豫园股份（600655.SH）-置顶东方生活美学战略，文化引 领出海实现 0-1 突破——20251206 【电子】洁美科技（002859.SZ ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the Hainan sector and sub-sectors with performance elasticity during the Spring Festival, while mid-term outlook favors new consumption growth, transformation recovery, overseas expansion, and policy benefits [5]. Core Insights - The snow holiday initiative has significantly boosted the ice and snow economy, with regions like Xinjiang and Jilin implementing snow holidays that have led to increased tourist numbers and spending [1][2]. - High-end jewelry brands such as Baolan and Linchao are expanding, with Baolan securing over 100 million yuan in Series A financing and Linchao planning to open a new store in East China [3][4]. - The report highlights a growing trend in both ice and snow tourism and winter escape travel during the New Year holiday, with significant increases in flight bookings to popular destinations [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the ice and snow tourism sector is gaining traction, with flight bookings to destinations like Harbin and Changchun seeing a rise, while southern regions are catching up in popularity [2]. - The introduction of snow holidays has led to a notable increase in visitor numbers and spending in regions like Xinjiang and Jilin, showcasing a positive consumer response [1]. Company Developments - Baolan Jewelry has completed a Series A financing round exceeding 100 million yuan, with plans for further expansion in high-end retail locations [3]. - Linchao Jewelry has also secured significant funding and is set to open its second store in East China, indicating strong growth potential in the luxury jewelry market [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors that are expected to perform well during the upcoming Spring Festival, particularly those benefiting from tax-free policies and improved fundamentals [5]. - It also suggests monitoring cyclical sectors such as duty-free, hotels, and restaurants for signs of recovery and growth [8].

证券研究报告 | 固定收益定期 gszqdatemark 2025 12 07 年 月 日 固定收益定期 而社融增速回落意味着未来几个月资产供给增速放缓。今年社融同比增速从去年 末的 8.0%回升至今年年中最高的 9.0%，资产供给的增加有效缓解了资产荒状况。 社融增速回升主要由政府债券推动，今年政府债券同比多增近 3 万亿，背后是财 政显著发力。我们按明年财政赤字 4%、特别国债 2 万亿以及新增专项债 4.5 万亿 的假定估算，明年政府债券将较今年多增 5000 亿左右，这个增量显著小于今年。 在非政府债券社融增量与今年持平的情况下，社融增速在明年上半年或再度放缓， 这意味着资金供给下降。 资金供给增加而融资需求下降，未来几个月资产荒有望再度加剧，这意味着总量 意义上债市会逐步走强。但近期超长债大幅调整显示，总体走强情况下结构上会 面临挑战。我们在此前报告中进行过论述，由于银行长债承接较多，导致△EVE 等 部分指标压力过大，特别是大行。而近期保险保费收入节奏放缓以及资产配置向 权益倾斜等，导致保险这些传统的超长债承接者配置力量不足。而交易型机构仓 位过于集中之后，就容易发生集中减仓带来的快速调整。过去这 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 07 年 月 日 有色金属 美国铜库存持续流入，非美地区低库存引发逼仓风险 贵金属：白银 ETF 持续流入，银价再创新高。本周公布的美国 9 月核心 PCE 同比为 2.8%， 低于前值和预期值 2.9%，一定程度提振市场对 12 月 11 日美联储议息会议押注。后续关注 12 月 11 日美联储议息会议和 12 月 19 日日本央行利率决议，根据 CME fedwatch，目前市 场认为美联储 12 月降息概率为 86.2%，较一周前 86.4%变化不大。另外据路透报道，日本 央行或将把政策利率从 0.5%上调至 0.75%，这将是自今年 1 月以来的首次加息。政府的立 场是"如果日本央行本月想加息，请自行决定"，这被视为默许央行采取行动。自 11 月 12 日以来，SLV 白银 ETF 再次出现大量的净流入状态，截至 12 月 5 日流入量达 837 吨，继续 创年内新高，对白银价格形成重要支撑。建议关注：兴业银锡、盛达资源、万国黄金集团、 中金黄金、紫金矿业、山东黄金、赤峰黄金、银泰黄金、招金矿业等。 工业金属：（1）铜：美国铜库存持 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key stocks in the construction materials sector, including Yao Pi Glass, Yinlong Co., Puxin Co., San Ke Shu, and Wei Xing New Materials, while recommending "Hold" for Bei Xin Materials [8]. Core Insights - The construction materials sector is experiencing weak demand, with a focus on the impact of government policies to stimulate growth. The report highlights the potential for recovery in municipal engineering projects and the importance of monitoring the government's debt management strategies [1][2]. - The cement market is characterized by a slight increase in prices and production, but overall demand remains weak, particularly in residential construction. The report suggests that a more robust macroeconomic support is needed for a significant recovery [17][28]. - The glass manufacturing sector is facing supply-demand imbalances, but self-regulated production cuts in photovoltaic glass may alleviate some pressure. The report emphasizes the need to watch for price stability in this segment [1][5]. - The fiberglass market shows signs of bottoming out, with price wars ending and demand from wind power projects expected to rise. The report indicates a positive outlook for high-end electronic fiberglass products [6][7]. - Consumer building materials are benefiting from improved second-hand housing transactions and consumption stimulus policies, with a recommendation to focus on companies with strong market share potential [1][7]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of December 5, 2025, the national cement price index is 352.47 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.77%. Cement output reached 2.971 million tons, up 0.2% from the previous week [17]. - The utilization rate of cement clinker production lines is 39.65%, reflecting a 1.21 percentage point increase week-on-week. However, the overall demand remains in a year-on-year contraction phase [17][28]. Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass as of December 4, 2025, is 1163.86 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.40%. Inventory levels are high, with a total of 56.75 million weight boxes reported [2][5]. - The report notes that while northern regions are experiencing reduced demand, southern regions are seeing price adjustments as manufacturers attempt to balance supply and demand [5][6]. Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The market for fiberglass remains stable, with limited demand recovery. The report indicates that electronic fiberglass prices have seen a slight increase, suggesting a tightening supply situation [6][7]. Consumer Building Materials Tracking - The demand for consumer building materials continues to show weak recovery, with upstream raw material prices fluctuating. The report highlights the importance of monitoring these price changes for investment decisions [7]. Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber market remains stable, with production increasing by 25.83% week-on-week. However, the report indicates that profitability remains under pressure due to high production costs [7].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the REITs sector [5] Core Insights - The REITs market is expected to benefit from a low interest rate environment in 2025, with three main investment strategies suggested: focusing on policy-driven projects, recognizing the value of weak-cycle assets, and monitoring the expansion of REITs alongside new issuances [4][5] - The C-REITs secondary market has shown a general pullback, with only the data center sector performing positively, while other sectors like transportation and consumer infrastructure have seen significant declines [12][4] REITs Index Performance - The CSI REITs total return index decreased by 0.85% this week, closing at 1031.5 points, while the CSI REITs index fell by 0.98% to 801.2 points [10][11] - Year-to-date, the CSI REITs total return index has increased by 6.57%, ranking fourth among major indices [2][10] Secondary Market Performance - As of December 5, the total market capitalization of listed REITs is approximately 217.37 billion yuan, with an average market cap of about 2.8 billion yuan per REIT [12] - This week, 17 REITs increased in value while 58 declined, with an average weekly decline of 0.86% [12] Trading Activity - The data center sector exhibited the highest trading activity, with an average daily turnover rate of 0.6% [3] - The average daily trading volume for listed REITs was 121.9 million shares, with a turnover rate of 0.4% [3] Valuation Performance - The internal rate of return (IRR) for listed REITs has shown significant differentiation, with the top three being China Communications Construction REIT (9.7%), Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT (9.6%), and E Fund Guangkai Industrial Park REIT (8.8%) [3] - The price-to-net asset value (P/NAV) ratio for REITs ranges from 0.7 to 1.8, with the highest being 1.8 for Harvest Wumei Consumer REIT [3]

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the credit market will continue to exhibit a low valuation environment with a rate-driven trend, influenced by factors such as reduced supply and increased demand for credit assets [2][3][4] - The issuance of Sci-tech bonds and ETFs has been a highlight in the credit market, with a cumulative issuance of 1.99 trillion yuan by November 25, 2025, significantly surpassing the 1.22 trillion yuan issued in 2024 [2][3] - The report anticipates that the credit market will maintain a low valuation environment, with potential adjustments in long-term credit bonds due to redemption pressures from trading institutions [2][4] Group 2 - The report discusses the transformation year for local government financing platforms, with a focus on the orderly exit of high-level issuers and market-oriented transitions in 2026 [3][4] - It highlights that the net financing of the "two eternals" (二永) is expected to remain low, with a projected range of 200 billion to 400 billion yuan for 2026, reflecting ongoing asset scarcity [4][5] - The report notes that the issuance of local government bonds will not see a new round of overall expansion but will undergo structural reshaping, with a focus on higher-level issuers [3][4] Group 3 - The report indicates that the credit market has shown resilience amid market fluctuations, with credit spreads narrowing during recovery phases [2][3] - It emphasizes the need for credit asset management to seek breakthroughs in a low interest rate environment, including expanding investment directions and developing alternative investment products [6][2] - The analysis of default risks shows a significant decrease in the number of defaults in 2025, with only 8 companies defaulting compared to 19 in 2024, indicating improved credit conditions [20][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the electricity industry [3] Core Views - The introduction of the 2026 electricity trading scheme in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces aims to deepen market reforms, enhance price predictability, and encourage the consumption of renewable energy [14][6] - The "computing power and electricity synergy" strategy is being promoted at the national level to meet the growing electricity demand from the AI industry, with a focus on using clean energy [6][15] - The report recommends focusing on flexible thermal power resources, energy storage, and virtual power plants as investment opportunities [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37% to 3902.81 points, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.28% to 4584.54 points during the week [62] - The CITIC Power and Utilities Index reported a slight increase of 0.01% to 3114.45 points, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.26 percentage points [62] Key Developments - The 2026 electricity trading scheme in Zhejiang introduces a requirement that at least 70% of annual trading volume must be secured through long-term contracts, enhancing market stability [14] - In Jiangsu, the trading scheme allows for all renewable energy projects to enter the market, with a focus on signing long-term purchase agreements [14] - The report highlights a significant increase in computing power demand, with a 30% annual growth rate in total computing power scale in China [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investing in thermal power companies such as Huaneng International, Guodian Power, and Datang Power, as well as in leading companies in flexible thermal power transformation [7] - It also recommends focusing on undervalued green energy companies, particularly in wind and solar power sectors, such as Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power [7] - For hydropower and nuclear power, companies like Yangtze Power and China Nuclear Power are highlighted as potential investments [7] Market Trends - The report notes that coal prices have decreased to 800 RMB per ton, which may positively impact thermal power generation costs [17] - The carbon market saw a price increase of 0.69% this week, with a closing price of 60.06 RMB per ton [57]