Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the industry [4] Core Views - The escalation of the Middle East situation is likely to increase the allocation to gold as a safe-haven asset, with recommendations to focus on companies such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [1][35] - The demand outlook for copper remains uncertain, with prices experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical uncertainties and tariff disruptions, while global copper inventories have increased slightly [1] - The aluminum market is expected to see short-term price strength due to decreasing social inventories, despite an increase in supply expectations [1] - The lithium industry is facing a continued inventory build-up, leading to a weak price outlook in the short term, with a slight increase in production but weak demand from downstream material manufacturers [2] - The silicon metal market is experiencing a loose supply-demand balance, with prices expected to remain under pressure due to increased supply and limited demand growth [2] Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metal sector has generally seen a decline this week, with prices across various non-ferrous products also decreasing [12][21] - The report highlights that the copper price is currently at 77,990 CNY/ton, showing no change week-on-week, while aluminum is at 20,465 CNY/ton, also stable [23] Industrial Metals - Copper: The demand outlook is unclear, with a slight increase in global copper inventories to 519,000 tons, and a year-on-year production increase of 1.1% in Q1 2025 [1] - Aluminum: The production capacity remains stable at 43.89 million tons, with expectations of increased supply but also a potential weakening in market transactions [1] Energy Metals - Lithium: The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has decreased by 2.0% to 64,000 CNY/ton, with a production increase of 2% to 18,500 tons this week [2] - Silicon Metal: The average cost of metal silicon has decreased by 5.6% to 10,767.4 CNY/ton, with a weekly production of 36,600 tons [2] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining for gold, and companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and China Hongqiao for aluminum [1][7]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 22 年 月 日 传媒 5 月中国游戏市场规模达 280.51 亿元，Kimi-Dev-72B 登顶全 球开源编程模型 行情概览：本周（6.16-6.20）中信一级传媒板块下跌 1.78%。本周传媒板 块受整体市场影响下跌。2025 年传媒弹性方向看好 AI 应用、IP 变现及并购 重组，AI 应用聚焦新应用的映射投资及部分较成熟应用的数据跟踪，重点关 注多模态产业方向。IP 变现聚焦有 IP 优势及全产业链潜力的公司，潮流玩具、 影视内容等方向有机会。并购重组重点关注国企方向，在国资委明确国企市值 考核的背景下，传媒国企诉求明显提升，部分国企资金优势明显。 板块观点与关注标的：1）资源整合预期：中视传媒、国新文化、广西广电、 唐德影视、吉视传媒、游族网络等；2）AI：荣信文化、奥飞娱乐、汤姆猫、 盛天网络、中文在线、易点天下、视觉中国、盛通股份、焦点科技、豆神教育、 世纪天鸿、佳发教育等；3）游戏：建议关注确定性强的神州泰岳、恺英网络、 巨人网络、吉比特，关注完美世界、ST 华通、冰川网络、华立科技；4）国企： 慈文传媒、皖新传媒、中文传 ...

Group 1 - The coal mining sector is experiencing a slight recovery in prices as summer demand begins to rise, with the market showing signs of life after a prolonged period of decline [2][12][36] - The China Coal Index is at 3,215.27 points, down 0.66%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.21 percentage points, ranking 9th among the CITIC sector performance [2][82] - The report highlights that the main production areas are maintaining stable supply levels, with some coal mines resuming production after previous shutdowns due to safety and environmental inspections [12][39] Group 2 - The report indicates that the demand for thermal coal is gradually increasing as temperatures rise, leading to a quick uptick in daily consumption by power plants [12][27] - Port inventories are decreasing, but the upward price momentum is limited due to cautious buying behavior from downstream users, primarily relying on long-term contracts [14][36] - The report notes that the focus should be on the intensity of demand during the peak season and any potential policy changes that may affect the market [6][12] Group 3 - The coking coal market is showing mixed price movements, with supply constraints due to environmental checks leading to a slight recovery in prices in some regions [39][42] - The report emphasizes that the overall supply of coking coal is decreasing, with some coal mines still not back to full production, impacting market dynamics [39][58] - The report suggests that the future price movements of coking coal will depend on several factors, including domestic production adjustments and potential import disruptions [39][58] Group 4 - Key recommended stocks in the coal sector include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and new energy companies like Electric Power Investment Energy, indicating a positive outlook for these firms [7][8] - The report identifies several companies with strong performance metrics, suggesting that high-quality firms are likely to outperform in the current market environment [8][7] - The focus on coal companies with potential for recovery and growth is highlighted, particularly those that have recently undergone significant changes or restructuring [8]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 06 21 年 月 日 量化分析报告 择时雷达六面图：本周综合打分维持中性 择时雷达六面图：基于多维视角的择时框架。权益市场的表现受到多维度 指标因素的共同影响，我们尝试从流动性、经济面、估值面、资金面、技 术面、拥挤度选取二十一个指标对市场进行刻画，并将其概括为"估值性 价比"、"宏观基本面"、"资金&趋势"、"拥挤度&反转"四大类，从而生成 [-1,1]之间的综合择时分数。 本周综合打分。本周市场的估值性价比下降，宏观基本面、资金&趋势与 拥挤度&反转分数变化不大，综合打分位于[-1,1]之间，当前的综合打分为 0.07 分，整体为中性观点。当前六面图各个维度的观点如下： 流动性。本周货币强度、信用强度发出看空信号，货币方向、信用方向 发出看多信号，当前流动性得分为 0.00 分，综合来看信号中性。 经济面。本周通胀方向与通胀强度指标发出看多信号，增长方向与增长 强度发出看空信号，当前经济面得分为 0.00 分，综合来看信号中性。 估值面。本周席勒 ERP、PB 与 AIAE 指标的分数变化不大，当前市场 的估值面得分为 0.09 分，综合来 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 06 22 年 月 日 量化周报 市场仍处于日线级别上涨中 市场仍处于日线级别上涨中。本周（6.16-6.20），大盘震荡下行，上证指 数全周收跌 0.51%。在此背景下，非银确认日线级别上涨，汽车、新能源 迎来日线级别下跌。当下，我们认为市场再次回到 4 月 7 日低点的概率基 本不存在了。由于上证指数、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 仍处于日线 级别上涨中，且还有部分指数和板块没有确认日线上涨，因此，我们认为 市场的日线级别上涨还要持续一段时间，后续市场有望继续上涨。中期来 看，上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、创业板指、科 创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上涨，而且在日线上只走出了 1-3 浪结构，中期 牛市刚刚开始；此外，已有 20 个行业处于周线级别上涨中，且 7 个行业 周线上涨只走了 1 浪结构，因此我们认为本轮牛市刚刚开始，而且还是个 普涨格局。中期对于投资者而言，仍然可以逆势布局。 A 股景气指数观察。截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日，A 股景气指数为 20.94，相 比 2023 年底上升 1 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Add" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The coding sector has emerged as a phenomenon in AI applications, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 53% from 2024 to 2029 [1][16] - The adoption rate of AI in U.S. enterprises has increased to 9.2% as of May 2025, up from 7.4% in Q4 2024, with significant growth in education, information, finance, and general services sectors [2][31] - Major AI models are driving a surge in computing power demand, with Google processing over 480 trillion tokens monthly, a 50-fold increase year-on-year [3][39] Summary by Sections Coding - AI coding has become a leading application, with a16z reporting that nearly 90% of code in a high-growth SaaS company is generated by AI tools like Cursor and Claude [13][16] - Cursor, a leading AI programming tool, has seen its annual recurring revenue (ARR) exceed $500 million, marking a 60% increase in just two months [1][24] Agent - Agents are becoming a new growth engine in AI, capable of understanding complex goals and executing multi-step processes, which is accelerating AI adoption across various industries [2][30] - The average budget for AI in enterprises is expected to grow by approximately 75% over the next year, indicating a shift from pilot projects to core IT and business budgets [2][32] Computing Power Demand - The demand for computing power is being reinforced by the rapid growth of major AI models, with Google reporting a monthly token processing volume of over 480 trillion, a 50-fold increase from the previous year [3][39] - OpenAI's revenue is projected to double this year to $12.7 billion, driven by a significant increase in paid enterprise users [42] Domestic AI Applications - Domestic AI applications are also progressing, with ByteDance's AI coding product TRAE achieving over 1 million monthly active users [44] - The daily token usage of the Doubao model has increased by 137 times since its launch, highlighting the growing demand for AI capabilities [56] Investment Opportunities - Key companies to watch in the computing power sector include Cambrian, Haiguang Information, Alibaba, and others [9][58] - In the Agent sector, notable companies include Alibaba, Tencent, and Kingsoft Office, among others [9][58]

证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2025 06 22 年 月 日 固定收益点评 财政支出节奏放缓——5 月财政数据点评 5 月广义财政收入同比再度转负，财政支出力度明显回落。收入端，加总一般公共 预算收入和政府债基金收入，5 月广义财政收入同比-1.2%，收入增速再次转负（4 月同比 2.7%）。支出端，5 月广义财政支出同比增速 4.0%，较前值 12.9%明显回 落。累计看，1-5 月广义财政收入累计同比-1.3%，广义财政支出累计同比 6.6%。 5 月年内税收增速下降，非税同比年内首次转负，一般预算收入增速下滑。2025 年 5 月，一般公共预算收入当月同比 0.1%（（前值 1.9%），税收收入同比 0.6%（（前 值 1.9%），非税收入同比-2.2%（（前值 1.7%），税收收入增速下降，非税同比增速 年内首次转负。分中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算收入当月同比增长 0.4%，地 方一般公共预算本级收入增长-0.1%。 税收方面，个人所得税、国内增值税增速较高，房产相关税收降幅较大。5 月税收 同比 0.56%，四大税种中，国内增值税同比 6.1%（（4 月同比 0.9% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the computing power and optical communication sectors, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication [4][10]. Core Insights - The CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) technology is rapidly advancing, with leading companies like Nvidia and Broadcom making significant strides in technology iteration and industrialization, transitioning from validation to large-scale commercialization [1][20]. - The shift towards CPO in the scale-up segment indicates a growing penetration of optical technology within data centers, particularly in cabinet interconnections, which is expected to enhance computing power and communication bandwidth [2][22]. - The trend of large-scale computing clusters is evident, with major CSPs (Cloud Service Providers) building clusters with tens of thousands to millions of GPUs, indicating a robust demand for computing power [3][22]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of CPO technology in enhancing interconnectivity and supporting the construction of larger computing clusters, recommending companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng as key players in the optical module industry [7][24]. Market Trends - The optical communication market is expected to expand as CPO solutions transition from inter-cabinet to intra-cabinet applications, with a notable increase in market understanding and recognition of CPO among traditional optical module manufacturers [7][22]. Key Companies and Recommendations - Recommended companies include Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and others in the optical communication and computing power sectors, highlighting their potential for growth and market share acquisition [8][24].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Overweight" [4] Core Viewpoints - The current coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the historical peak in Q4 2021, with prices generally returning to levels before the recent uptrend. The market is well aware of the price decline, indicating that the bottom may be near. It is essential to understand the industry's fundamental attributes and maintain confidence and determination [3] - The report highlights that domestic coal companies are increasingly facing losses, with over half (54.8%) of coal enterprises reporting losses as of March 2025. This situation may lead to a higher probability of production cuts as prices continue to decline [3] - The report recommends key coal enterprises such as China Shenhua (H+A), China Coal Energy (H+A), and others, emphasizing that performance-driven stocks will outperform [3][7] Summary by Sections Coal Mining - In May 2025, India's coal imports rebounded, primarily supported by coking coal imports, with total imports reaching 25.82 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.72% and a month-on-month increase of 15.28%, marking the highest level since July 2022 [6][2] - The report notes that the coking coal market remains relatively stable, particularly for high-quality hard coking coal, due to tightening supply from Australia [6] - The performance of the electricity, steel, and cement sectors shows significant divergence, with electricity generation from coal declining by 9.5% year-on-year, while crude steel production increased by 9.5% due to infrastructure development [6] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - China Shenhua (601088.SH) - Buy - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH) - Buy - China Qinfa (00866.HK) - Buy - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) - Buy - Electric Power Investment Energy (002128.SZ) - Buy - Jinneng Holding (601001.SH) - Buy - Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH) - Buy - Xinjie Energy (601918.SH) - Buy [7] Price Trends - As of June 20, 2025, Newcastle coal prices (6000K) are at $218.90 per ton, unchanged from the previous week, while IPE South African Richards Bay coal futures settled at $91.35 per ton, up by $0.10 per ton [35] - The report indicates that coal prices in Europe ARA ports remain stable at $89.00 per ton, with no change from the previous week [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the textile and apparel industry, including Anta Sports, Xtep International, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [10][26][36]. Core Insights - Inditex, the parent company of Zara, reported strong performance in FY2025Q1, with revenue growth of 1.5% year-on-year to €8.3 billion, and a net profit increase of 0.8% to €1.3 billion, benefiting from strict cost control [1][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on brands with solid fundamentals and quality, anticipating performance recovery and valuation increases in 2025 [3][22]. - The apparel manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from easing tariff policies, which may enhance company valuations [24]. Summary by Sections Inditex Performance - Inditex's FY2025Q1 revenue reached €8.3 billion, with a gross margin of 60.6% and a net profit of €1.3 billion, reflecting stable profit margins due to effective cost management [1][15]. - The company’s inventory as of April was €3.791 billion, up 6% year-on-year, indicating healthy inventory quality [17]. Long-term Growth Drivers - Inditex plans to optimize store productivity and expects a 5% year-on-year increase in average sales area per store from 2025 to 2026, alongside continued e-commerce growth [2][20]. Apparel and Footwear Sector - The report highlights the robust growth of sportswear brands, with a healthy inventory and discount levels, particularly in outdoor and running segments, which are expected to expand significantly in 2025 [3][22][25]. - Key recommendations include Anta Sports and Xtep International, with respective 2025 PE ratios of 17x and 10x, indicating strong growth potential [10][25]. Jewelry Sector - Chow Tai Fook's operating profit increased by 10% in FY2025, despite an 18% decline in revenue, attributed to product structure optimization and rising gold prices [9][37]. - The report suggests that companies with strong product differentiation and brand power are likely to outperform the industry in 2025 [4][23]. Textile Manufacturing - The easing of tariff policies is seen as a potential positive for the valuation of leading textile manufacturing companies, which are expected to maintain stable orders and shipments in the short term [24]. - Recommended companies include Shenzhou International and Huayi Group, with 2025 PE ratios of 11x and 14x, respectively [7][24].