Group 1 - The report highlights the increasing likelihood of a weaker dollar due to misaligned monetary policies and challenges in the dollar's external circulation system [2][4][69] - It reviews seven significant periods of dollar depreciation since 1970, emphasizing the impact on various asset classes, particularly commodities and non-US equities [3][9][62] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the foreign exchange market, commodities, and non-US equity markets as the dollar weakens [4][62][70] Group 2 - The historical analysis indicates that during periods of dollar weakness, commodities consistently outperform, driven by a shift in investment towards tangible assets [63][62] - Non-US equity markets, particularly in emerging economies, tend to benefit from capital inflows and improved economic conditions during dollar depreciation phases [63][62] - The report identifies specific periods where asset performance varied significantly, with Asian markets often outperforming European markets during dollar weakness [14][23][35] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the potential for a new trend of dollar depreciation, driven by factors such as the narrowing interest rate differentials between the US and other economies [69][70] - It notes that the eurozone is likely to benefit the most from the rebalancing of dollar-denominated assets, as fiscal expansion in the region is expected to enhance economic prospects [77][79] - The analysis suggests that as the dollar weakens, there will be an increase in hedging against dollar exposure, further supporting the appreciation of currencies from regions holding significant US assets [77][79]

Group 1: General Market Overview - The low-altitude economy is rapidly developing, with both manned and unmanned aircraft flourishing, highlighting the importance of flight training as a key infrastructure[12] - The flight training market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with risks of oversupply in both general aviation and drone training sectors[3] Group 2: Licensing Requirements - General aviation licenses are more stringent than drone licenses, with a four-tier management system established by CAAC for various pilot licenses[13] - Drone pilot licenses follow a tiered management structure, with simplified requirements for micro and light drones, while larger drones face stricter regulations[20] Group 3: Market Dynamics - By the end of 2024, there will be 3,650 general aviation pilots in China, corresponding to 1,982 aircraft, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation overall[30] - The number of drone training institutions surged from fewer than 500 in early 2024 to 2,690 by mid-2025, driven by rapid market demand growth[83] Group 4: Training Market Challenges - The general aviation training market is facing a supply surplus, with a training vacancy rate rising to 18.2% by 2024, indicating operational difficulties for some training institutions[70] - The drone training market is expanding quickly, but the supply growth is outpacing demand, raising concerns about potential oversupply risks in the future[69]

Market Pricing Status - The overall trading heat in the market has significantly increased, with the average daily trading volume of the entire A-share market rising from 12.2 trillion to 13.8 trillion yuan, and the turnover rate of the Shanghai Composite Index increasing to 82% [1][12][11] - The number of daily limit-up stocks has decreased to 66, with the maximum consecutive limit-up stocks being 7 [1][12] A-Share Liquidity Tracking - Foreign capital has turned to inflow, with a net inflow of 0.3 million USD into the A-share market [4][47] - The net inflow of financing funds reached 125.8 billion yuan, with the total margin balance increasing to 1.8 trillion yuan [4][30] - The issuance scale of new equity funds has decreased to 12.2 billion yuan [4][30] Industry Allocation Tracking - Financing funds have shown divergence in the pharmaceutical sector, with net inflows of 22.5 billion yuan in pharmaceuticals and 17.2 billion yuan in electronics, while there were net outflows of 15.6 billion yuan in agriculture and 2.8 billion yuan in power equipment [4][30] - Foreign capital has primarily flowed into the real estate sector, while food and beverage and power equipment sectors experienced net outflows [4][30] - The top three industries on the trading leaderboard were pharmaceuticals, machinery, and environmental protection [4][30] Global Fund Flow Tracking - Southbound funds have increased, with a net inflow of 154.6 billion yuan, placing it in the 62nd percentile since 2022 [3][4] - Major global markets have shown mixed performance, with the South Korean index leading with a 2.9% increase [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The end - of - quarter repatriation of bank wealth management is a definite trend, which may cause short - term disturbances to the credit bond market. However, considering the current support for the credit bond supply - demand structure and the expectation of loose funds around the quarter - end, the overall correction pressure on credit bonds is likely to be small. After the quarter - end, as the wealth management scale recovers, the demand for credit bond allocation may quickly recover [3][6][13]. - The short - term credit spread has been compressed to the lowest point this year, with relatively limited gaming space. Subsequently, the evolution of the asset shortage may gradually drive the duration market. The term spread has been trying to compress in the past two weeks, and there is still some room for compression of the medium - and long - term spread [3][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Cross - Quarter Disturbance is Controllable, and the Duration Market is Gradually Emerging - Bank wealth management scale shows obvious characteristics of declining at the end of the quarter and rising at the beginning of the quarter, which is closely related to the end - of - quarter assessment pressure of banks and has an impact on credit spreads. At the end of the quarter, wealth management products need to repatriate some assets to meet regulatory indicators such as deposits, resulting in a decrease in wealth management scale and a weakening of credit bond allocation demand, which may lead to short - term selling pressure. After the quarter - end, as the wealth management allocation power recovers, the demand for credit bond allocation increases significantly, driving the credit spread to decline [3][6]. - In the second quarter, the net purchase scale of credit bonds by wealth management was not prominent, possibly related to the smooth valuation rectification. In April and May, the net purchase scale of credit bonds by wealth management was 51.1 billion yuan and 40.1 billion yuan respectively, the lowest in the same period in the past four years, with a year - on - year decline of 29.4% and 39.3%. On the contrary, bank wealth management bought a large number of certificate of deposit products in the second quarter, especially in May, with a net purchase scale of 261.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 68.2%. This change may be related to the valuation rectification and net value stabilization pressure of bank wealth management. In terms of institutional behavior, it shows that wealth management attaches more importance to the liquidity of positions and is more cautious in selecting credit bonds. Even if the repatriation scale exceeds the seasonality during the cross - quarter repatriation stage, the short - term selling pressure on credit bonds will be relatively controllable [3][8]. - In terms of supply, the supply scale of broad - based credit bonds in May this year was higher than that in previous years, and the month - on - month growth rate of issuance in June may be weaker than expected. The supply scale of broad - based credit bonds in May was 1.46 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 27.4%. On the one hand, the issuance progress of bank secondary and perpetual bonds accelerated sharply in late April, and the issuance scale in May was close to 300 billion. On the other hand, due to the new policy of science and technology innovation bonds, there was a wave of concentrated issuance of science and technology innovation bonds in May, with an issuance of more than 360 billion yuan, the highest single - month issuance scale since 2022. Against the background of the relatively high - base supply in May this year, the month - on - month growth rate of credit bond issuance in June may be weaker than that in previous years, and the market impact caused by the increase in credit bond supply is limited [3][11]. 3.2 What Other Coupon Can be Explored Besides Lengthening the Duration? 3.2.1 Urban Investment Bonds - As of June 11, 2025, the scale of outstanding urban investment bonds was about 15.47 trillion yuan, including about 8.17 trillion yuan of public urban investment bonds, accounting for 53%. The scale of outstanding urban investment bonds with a valuation above 2.3% was 2.97 trillion yuan (933.445 billion yuan of public bonds), accounting for 19.23% of the total urban investment scale [17]. - In public urban investment bonds, Qinghai, Guizhou, Liaoning, Yunnan, and Shaanxi have relatively high weighted average valuation yields, all above 2.2%. Among the top ten provinces in terms of the scale of outstanding public urban investment bonds, Shandong, Sichuan, and Chongqing have relatively high valuation yields. In other large - scale public urban investment bond provinces, the yields of products within 3 years are mostly below 2%. In terms of spread performance, Shanghai and Beijing have the lowest average spreads, and the spreads in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian are around 40BP. Among the top ten provinces in terms of stock, Shandong, Chongqing, and Hunan have relatively high spreads [17]. - In private urban investment bonds, Guizhou and Yunnan have a weighted average valuation yield above 3%. Among the top ten provinces in terms of the scale of outstanding private urban investment bonds, Shandong, Henan, Chongqing, and Sichuan have relatively high valuation yields, about 2.3 - 2.4%. In other large - scale private urban investment bond provinces, the yields of products within 3 years are mostly below 2.2% [18]. 3.2.2 Financial Bonds - As of June 11, 2025, the scale of outstanding financial bonds was about 14.42 trillion yuan. In terms of duration distribution, the average valuation yields of insurance sub - bonds in each duration interval within 5 years are relatively high; the average yields of bank secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds within 3 years are below 2% [24]. - The scale of outstanding financial bonds with a valuation above 2.3% is 544.5 billion yuan, accounting for 3.8% of the total scale. Further divided by term, the scale of those with a valuation above 2.3% and a remaining term of less than 3 years is about 200.347 billion yuan, and the scale of those with a valuation above 2.3% and a remaining term of 3 - 5 years is about 340.12 billion yuan [24]. 3.2.3 Industrial Bonds - As of June 11, 2025, the scale of outstanding non - default industrial bonds was about 13.48 trillion yuan. The scale of outstanding bonds in the public utilities, non - bank finance, comprehensive, transportation, real estate, and building decoration industries exceeded one trillion yuan, among which the real estate and non - bank finance industries had relatively high average valuation yield levels [28]. - The scale of outstanding industrial bonds with a valuation above 2.3% is 1.5838 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.75% of the total scale. Considering both the stock scale and the proportion of high - valuation bonds, the real estate industry has the highest proportion of high - valuation bonds and the largest absolute scale, mainly concentrated in AAA products within 3 years (with a stock of about 289.6 billion yuan) [28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the computer sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [4][11]. Core Insights - The development of AI, both domestically and internationally, is progressing steadily, with technological upgrades and price reductions for large models occurring simultaneously, leading to an accelerated adoption of AI applications [2][4]. - The report highlights the launch of OpenAI's o3-pro model, which outperforms Google's Gemini 2.5 Pro and Anthropic's Claude 4 Opus in various benchmarks, while also reducing its pricing by 80%, which is expected to significantly promote AI adoption [4]. - The release of the Doubao large model 1.6 introduces a novel pricing model based on input length, resulting in a 63% cost reduction compared to its predecessor, which is anticipated to further accelerate AI implementation across industries [4]. - Ant International is actively pursuing a stablecoin license in Hong Kong, indicating a positive outlook for the stablecoin market, especially with the support of major payment players [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific stocks: Huada Jiutian, Dameng Data, Kingsoft Office, Newland, Tongxingbao, Saiyi Information, and Hehe Information, all rated as "Overweight" [4][5]. Performance Forecasts - The earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the recommended stocks are provided, showing significant growth potential for the upcoming years [5]. - Huada Jiutian: EPS of 0.20 in 2024, PE of 588.3 [5] - Dameng Data: EPS of 5.44 in 2024, PE of 40.1 [5] - Kingsoft Office: EPS of 3.56 in 2024, PE of 76.1 [5] - Newland: EPS of 1.00 in 2024, PE of 29.2 [5] - Tongxingbao: EPS of 0.52 in 2024, PE of 31.4 [5] - Saiyi Information: EPS of 0.34 in 2024, PE of 76.1 [5] - Hehe Information: EPS of 4.93 in 2024, PE of 30.4 [5]

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.13 重大项目接续落地，港股 IPO 同比增逾 7 成 投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Industry] [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——券商投行业务月报（2025 年 5 月） | [table_Authors] 刘欣琦(分析师) | 吴浩东(分析师) | 肖尧(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 S0880515050001 | S0880524070001 | S0880525040115 | 本报告导读： A 股股权融资节奏边际上有所改善，港股持续活跃、同比提振显著，推荐企业客户 资源、专业服务能力以及跨境服务能力更具优势的头部券商。 投资要点： 股 票 研 究 行 业 月 报 数据来源：Wind，国泰海通证券研究 注：核心债券=公司债+企 业债+可转债 数据来源：Wind，国泰海通证券研究 数据来源：Wind，国泰海通证券研究 数据来源：Wind，国泰海通证券研究 注：口径为当月已披露的 重大重组事件 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of 56.60 CNY, indicating optimism about the company's performance as a leader in educational enterprise reform and its continuous earnings growth [3][10]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in laser technology and has benefited from educational enterprise reforms, enhancing its operational vitality. It has a diversified business model encompassing communication, laser, sensing, and anti-counterfeiting applications [10][25]. - The company is expected to experience significant revenue growth driven by AI and the increasing demand for optical modules, particularly as a core supplier to major clients like Huawei [10][14]. Financial Summary - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 44.564 billion CNY, with a total share capital of 1,006 million shares [4]. - Revenue projections for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 10,310 million CNY, 11,709 million CNY, 16,028 million CNY, 23,082 million CNY, and 27,933 million CNY respectively, reflecting a growth rate of 36.9% from 2024 to 2025 [9][19]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,007 million CNY in 2023A, increasing to 3,015 million CNY by 2027E, with a notable growth rate of 56.9% from 2024 to 2025 [9][19]. Business Segments - The laser processing equipment and intelligent manufacturing line is projected to generate 34.92 billion CNY in revenue in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 9.45% [14][19]. - The optical device segment is expected to achieve 39.75 billion CNY in revenue in 2024, marking a 27.79% increase, driven by advancements in AIGC applications [16][19]. - The sensitive components segment is anticipated to generate 36.68 billion CNY in revenue in 2024, reflecting a 12.93% growth, supported by strong demand in the automotive and consumer electronics sectors [17][19]. Valuation Methodology - The report employs both PE and PB valuation methods, concluding with a target price of 56.60 CNY based on a 5x PB valuation for 2025 [20][22]. - The estimated EPS for 2025 is projected at 1.90 CNY, with a corresponding PE ratio of 35x, leading to a target price of 66.67 CNY based on PE valuation [21][22]. Historical Performance - The company has shown a consistent revenue growth trajectory, with a CAGR of 17.43% from 2003 to 2024, despite experiencing declines in 2012 and 2023 [33]. - The gross profit margin has improved significantly since the educational reform in 2021, with a projected gross margin of 21.55% for 2024 [39]. Strategic Positioning - The company has established itself as a key player in the laser technology sector, leveraging its roots in higher education and extensive R&D capabilities to drive innovation and market competitiveness [25][26]. - The completion of the educational enterprise reform in 2021 has positioned the company for strategic growth and expansion in both domestic and international markets [25][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][7]. Core Insights - The core OTA platform's revenue growth has improved sequentially, with a focus on enhancing marketing efficiency and exploring incremental business opportunities [3][7]. - The company achieved a revenue of 4.377 billion RMB in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.22%, with core OTA revenue at 3.792 billion RMB, up 18.39% year-on-year [7]. - Adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was 788 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 41.13%, with an adjusted net profit margin of 18.0%, up 3.6 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 17.341 billion RMB, 19.794 billion RMB, 22.456 billion RMB, and 25.647 billion RMB respectively, with growth rates of 49.12%, 14.15%, 13.45%, and 14.21% [6][9]. - The adjusted net profit for the same years is forecasted to be 1.974 billion RMB, 2.709 billion RMB, 3.294 billion RMB, and 3.891 billion RMB, with growth rates of 26.66%, 18.88%, 16.17%, and 14.42% respectively [6][9]. - The adjusted EBITDA for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 is expected to be 4.050 billion RMB, 4.667 billion RMB, 5.202 billion RMB, and 5.749 billion RMB, with corresponding EBITDA margins of 23.4%, 23.6%, 23.2%, and 22.4% [6][9]. Business Performance - The core OTA business's revenue growth has accelerated sequentially, with Q1 2025 showing a significant improvement compared to Q4 2024 [7]. - The company has focused on improving profit margins through refined operations, achieving a gross margin of 68.8%, a sales expense ratio of 33.2%, and a management expense ratio of 7.0% [7]. - The operating profit for the core OTA segment was 1.1 billion RMB, up 51.89% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 29%, an increase of 6.4 percentage points year-on-year [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a potential return exceeding 15% relative to the CSI 300 index [3][9]. Core Insights - Tesla is positioned as a global leader in the commercialization of Robotaxi and humanoid robot industries, with the upcoming public trial of Robotaxi expected to significantly enhance the performance of the Tesla supply chain [2][3]. - The launch of Robotaxi is seen as a pivotal moment for the industry, transitioning from concept to reality, with substantial performance growth anticipated for related sectors [3]. - Key companies in the supply chain that are recommended for investment include Top Group, Zhaomin Technology, Junsheng Electronics, and Xinquan Co., which are expected to benefit from the growth of Robotaxi and humanoid robots [3]. Summary by Sections Tesla Robotaxi Launch - Elon Musk announced the tentative public trial date for Tesla's Robotaxi service as June 22, with an initial rollout of approximately 10 vehicles, scaling up to thousands over time [2][3]. - The expansion of Robotaxi services to cities like San Francisco is planned, although specific timelines have not been disclosed [3]. Management Changes - The head of Tesla's Optimus robot project has announced his departure, with the autonomous driving head taking over the project [3]. Industry Collaborations - UBTECH and Foxconn are collaborating in the humanoid robot sector, focusing on deep applications in smart manufacturing and talent development [3]. - This partnership aims to create a closed-loop ecosystem for technology research, scenario validation, talent cultivation, and industrial application [3]. Financial Projections - Financial estimates for key companies include: - Top Group: EPS forecast of 1.73 CNY for 2024, with a PE ratio of 28 [4]. - Zhaomin Technology: EPS forecast of 0.59 CNY for 2024, with a PE ratio of 79 [4]. - Junsheng Electronics: EPS forecast of 0.68 CNY for 2024, with a PE ratio of 26 [4]. - Xinquan Co.: EPS forecast of 2.00 CNY for 2024, with a PE ratio of 23 [4].

Inflation Data - In May 2025, the US CPI year-on-year growth was 2.4%, slightly up from 2.3% in the previous month, aligning with market expectations[5] - The core CPI remained at 2.8%, below the market expectation of 2.9%[6] - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.1%, down from 0.2% in April, and below the expected 0.2%[6] Core Components - Energy prices significantly impacted the CPI, with energy inflation decreasing by 1.0% month-on-month, dragging down the CPI by 0.1 percentage points[7] - Core goods inflation showed limited upward pressure, with notable increases in specific items like furniture, auto parts, and pharmaceuticals, while clothing and new cars saw declines[9] - Core services inflation also weakened, particularly in rent and medical services, with rent decreasing by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%[9] Federal Reserve Outlook - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates in the short term due to stable employment and significant inflation uncertainties[3] - Market expectations indicate potential rate cuts in September and December, with a forecasted reduction of 50 basis points[19] Tariff Impact - The report highlights a lag in the transmission of tariffs to inflation, with companies remaining cautious in price increases amid uncertain consumer and tariff outlooks[3] - The anticipated impact of tariffs on core goods may become evident as inventory levels decrease and companies adjust pricing strategies[16] Future Considerations - There is a need to monitor inflationary pressures, particularly in food prices and energy costs, which may rise in the coming months[16] - The Cleveland Fed estimates that the CPI year-on-year growth could rise to approximately 2.7% in June 2025[16]