Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Weekly Rebalancing AI-Enhanced CSI 500 Wide Constraint Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to enhance the CSI 500 index performance by leveraging AI-based factors while applying wide constraints on portfolio construction [72][73] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses deep learning factors (e.g., multi-granularity model with 10-day labels) as the basis for stock selection [72] - Constraints include: - Stock weight: 1% - Industry weight: 1% - Market cap weight: 0.3 - Turnover rate constraint: 0.3 - The optimization objective is to maximize expected returns, represented by the formula: $$ max \sum \mu_{i}w_{i} $$ where \( w_{i} \) is the weight of stock \( i \) in the portfolio, and \( \mu_{i} \) is the expected excess return of stock \( i \) [73][74] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates moderate performance under wide constraints, with cumulative excess returns shown over time [75][77] 2. Model Name: Weekly Rebalancing AI-Enhanced CSI 500 Strict Constraint Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: Similar to the wide constraint model but applies stricter constraints to control risk and enhance robustness [72][73] - **Model Construction Process**: - Constraints include: - Stock weight: 1% - Industry weight: 1% - Market cap weight: 0.1 - Additional constraints: - Market cap squared: 0.1 - ROE: 0.3 - SUE: 0.3 - Volatility: 0.3 - Component stock constraint: 0.8 - Optimization objective remains the same as the wide constraint model [73][74] - **Model Evaluation**: The stricter constraints result in a more stable performance, with cumulative excess returns displayed over time [76][80] 3. Model Name: Weekly Rebalancing AI-Enhanced CSI 1000 Wide Constraint Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: This model targets the CSI 1000 index, applying wide constraints while leveraging AI-based factors for enhanced returns [72][73] - **Model Construction Process**: - Constraints are similar to the CSI 500 wide constraint model, with a focus on smaller-cap stocks [73] - **Model Evaluation**: The model shows significant cumulative excess returns, particularly in recent years [79][86] 4. Model Name: Weekly Rebalancing AI-Enhanced CSI 1000 Strict Constraint Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: Similar to the wide constraint model but applies stricter constraints to manage risk and improve consistency [72][73] - **Model Construction Process**: - Constraints are similar to the CSI 500 strict constraint model, tailored for the CSI 1000 index [73] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong performance under strict constraints, with cumulative excess returns highlighted [85][87] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Weekly Rebalancing AI-Enhanced CSI 500 Wide Constraint Portfolio - **Weekly Excess Return**: -1.36% (last week), -3.85% (September), 0.94% (YTD 2025) [13][78] - **Weekly Win Rate**: 23/39 weeks [13] 2. Weekly Rebalancing AI-Enhanced CSI 500 Strict Constraint Portfolio - **Weekly Excess Return**: -1.35% (last week), -1.33% (September), 3.70% (YTD 2025) [13][81] - **Weekly Win Rate**: 24/39 weeks [13] 3. Weekly Rebalancing AI-Enhanced CSI 1000 Wide Constraint Portfolio - **Weekly Excess Return**: 0.40% (last week), 0.42% (September), 9.15% (YTD 2025) [13][83] - **Weekly Win Rate**: 26/39 weeks [13] 4. Weekly Rebalancing AI-Enhanced CSI 1000 Strict Constraint Portfolio - **Weekly Excess Return**: -0.19% (last week), 0.67% (September), 14.01% (YTD 2025) [13][90] - **Weekly Win Rate**: 25/39 weeks [13] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Intraday Skewness Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the skewness of intraday stock returns to identify potential outperformers [6][8] - **Factor Construction Process**: Referenced in the report "Stock Selection Factor Series Research (19)" [13] - **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong performance with IC values of 0.027 (historical) and 0.042 (2025) [9][10] 2. Factor Name: Downside Volatility Proportion Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the proportion of downside volatility in realized volatility to assess risk-adjusted returns [6][8] - **Factor Construction Process**: Referenced in the report "Stock Selection Factor Series Research (25)" [18][20] - **Factor Evaluation**: Shows moderate performance with IC values of 0.025 (historical) and 0.036 (2025) [9][10] 3. Factor Name: Post-Open Buying Intensity Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Quantifies the intensity of buying activity after market open to identify short-term momentum [6][8] - **Factor Construction Process**: Referenced in the report "Stock Selection Factor Series Research (64)" [22][26] - **Factor Evaluation**: Displays stable performance with IC values of 0.035 (historical) and 0.030 (2025) [9][10] 4. Factor Name: Deep Learning Factor (Improved GRU(50,2)+NN(10)) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Utilizes a gated recurrent unit (GRU) and neural network (NN) architecture to predict stock returns [6][8] - **Factor Construction Process**: Combines GRU with NN to capture temporal dependencies in high-frequency data [61][62] - **Factor Evaluation**: Strong performance with IC values of 0.066 (historical) and 0.050 (2025) [12][61] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Intraday Skewness Factor - **IC**: 0.027 (historical), 0.042 (2025) [9][10] - **Multi-Long-Short Return**: 3.82% (September), 16.22% (YTD 2025) [9][10] 2. Downside Volatility Proportion Factor - **IC**: 0.025 (historical), 0.036 (2025) [9][10] - **Multi-Long-Short Return**: 2.86% (September), 13.58% (YTD 2025) [9][10] 3. Post-Open Buying Intensity Factor - **IC**: 0.035 (historical), 0.030 (2025) [9][10] - **Multi-Long-Short Return**: 0.65% (September), 11.29% (YTD 2025) [9][10] 4. Deep Learning Factor (Improved GRU(50,2)+NN(10)) - **IC**: 0.066 (historical), 0.050 (2025) [12][61] - **Multi-Long-Short Return**: 2.13% (September), 7.40% (YTD 2025) [12][61]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the robotics industry, particularly on whole machine manufacturers and core component suppliers, with an overall investment rating of "Neutral" for the industry [26]. Core Insights - The humanoid robotics sector is experiencing a dual momentum of "technological deepening" and "scene landing," indicating a positive outlook for the robotics industry [2]. - Google has launched the latest Gemini Robotics 1.5 series, enhancing robot autonomy and task execution capabilities through advanced models [4][16]. - The report highlights significant investment opportunities in various segments of the robotics supply chain, including motors, joints, sensors, and more [18]. Summary by Sections Industry News and Company Dynamics - Jiangsu Donghua Testing Technology Co., Ltd. signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Nantong Zhenkang Machinery Co., Ltd. to enhance collaboration in robotic joint module technology [6]. - Fourier's third-generation humanoid robot GR-3C made its debut at the 2025 Industrial Expo, showcasing advanced design and capabilities [7]. Investment and Financing Dynamics - 1X Robotics is seeking to raise up to $1 billion, aiming for a valuation of at least $10 billion, following the launch of its new home robot Neo Gamma [16]. - Quan Zhibo completed two rounds of financing exceeding 100 million yuan, focusing on talent development and R&D [16]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on key robotics component suppliers, including: 1. Motors: Mingzhi Electric 2. Rotating joints: Zhongchen Technology, Shuanghuan Transmission, Landai Technology 3. Linear joints: Hengli Hydraulic 4. Dexterous hands: Zhaowei Electromechanical 5. Encoders: Yap Technology, Fengqiao Technology 6. Sensors: Donghua Testing, Keli Sensor, Anpeilong, Hanwei Technology 7. Screw equipment: Qinchuan Machine Tool, Huachen Equipment 8. Bearings: Longxi Co., Ltd. [18][19]

- Liquidity shock indicator for CSI 300 index reached 1.86 on Friday, higher than the previous week's 1.33, indicating current market liquidity is 1.86 times the standard deviation above the past year's average level [7] - PUT-CALL ratio for SSE 50ETF options declined to 0.91 on Friday, lower than the previous week's 1.14, reflecting reduced investor caution regarding short-term movements of SSE 50ETF [7] - Five-day average turnover rates for SSE Composite Index and Wind All A Index were 1.27% and 1.91%, respectively, corresponding to the 75.73% and 81.47% percentiles since 2005, showing decreased trading activity [7] - SAR indicator for Wind All A Index showed a positive breakout on September 11 [10] - Moving average strength index for Wind All A Index scored 150, at the 53.3% percentile for 2023, indicating a fluctuating trend [10] - Sentiment model score was 1 out of 5, trend model signal was positive, and weighted model signal was negative [10] - Small-cap factor crowding score was 0.40, low-valuation factor crowding score was -0.67, high-profitability factor crowding score was -0.10, and high-growth factor crowding score was 0.15 [18] - Sub-scores for small-cap factor included valuation spread (1.08), pairwise correlation (0.06), market volatility (-0.42), and return reversal (0.85) [18] - Sub-scores for low-valuation factor included valuation spread (-1.25), pairwise correlation (-0.03), market volatility (-0.09), and return reversal (-1.32) [18] - Sub-scores for high-profitability factor included valuation spread (-0.17), pairwise correlation (0.14), market volatility (-0.84), and return reversal (0.48) [18] - Sub-scores for high-growth factor included valuation spread (1.91), pairwise correlation (0.46), market volatility (-0.94), and return reversal (-0.82) [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6][12]. Core Views - The company continues to experience growth in product sales and profitability in the first half of 2025. It has announced an investment in a biomass (rice husk) silica project to create new growth opportunities [2][12]. - The company achieved a revenue of 1.113 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.87%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 276 million yuan, up 5.44% year-on-year [12]. - The company is expanding its production capacity and enhancing its product structure through various projects, including the biomass silica project and others [12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 1,810 million yuan in 2023 to 2,972 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.5% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 413 million yuan in 2023 to 749 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 13.6% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.99 yuan in 2023 to 1.80 yuan in 2027 [4]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to remain stable around 15.4% from 2025 to 2027 [4]. Market Data - The company's target price is set at 25.20 yuan, with a current market capitalization of 8,243 million yuan [6][7]. - The stock has traded within a range of 13.98 to 21.83 yuan over the past 52 weeks [7]. Production and Capacity - The company ranks third globally in silica production capacity, with production bases in Wuxi, Fengyang, and Shaxian in China, as well as a facility in Thailand [12]. - The company is actively working on expanding its production capacity through ongoing projects and improving its international supply chain management [12].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the overall asset allocation strategy has experienced fluctuations due to domestic equity asset volatility, with various models recording different degrees of decline [1][4][7] - The performance of major asset classes from September 15 to September 19, 2025, shows that the S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, and other indices recorded gains, while convertible bonds and gold experienced declines [7][10] - The domestic asset BL model 1 and model 2 both reported a weekly return of -0.04%, while the global asset BL models had slightly better performance with a return of -0.01% for model 1 and -0.03% for model 2 [15][17] Group 2 - The Black-Litterman (BL) model is highlighted as an improvement over traditional mean-variance models, integrating subjective views with quantitative models to optimize asset allocation [12][13] - The domestic asset risk parity model achieved a return of -0.02% for the week, while the global asset risk parity model recorded a positive return of 0.05% [21][22] - The macro factor-based asset allocation strategy reported a weekly return of -0.1%, with a year-to-date return of 3.25%, indicating its performance amidst changing economic conditions [27][28]

Domestic Macro - The State Council discussed the "Banking Supervision Law (Revised Draft)" on September 19, 2025, emphasizing fair competition among various business entities [6][16] - On September 22, the National Development and Reform Commission held a press conference highlighting achievements in the financial sector during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with total banking assets nearing 470 trillion yuan, ranking first globally [6][16] - The People's Bank of China announced a 600 billion yuan MLF operation on September 24, marking a net injection of 300 billion yuan for the month, continuing a trend of increased liquidity for seven consecutive months [6][16] Industry Policy - The National Healthcare Security Administration released the 11th batch of drug procurement documents on September 20, 2025 [7][17] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Steel Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)" on September 22, setting an average annual growth target of around 4% for the steel industry over the next two years [7][17] - The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments jointly issued guidelines to promote digital consumption on September 23, proposing 14 specific measures, including trials for smart connected vehicles [7][18] Local Policy - Shanghai announced adjustments to its housing property tax policy on September 19, 2025, exempting first-time homebuyers and second homes under certain conditions for residents with residence permits [8][19] - Sanya implemented a plan for affordable rental housing on September 21, 2025, with rent prices guided by the government [8][19] - Tianjin will initiate a pilot program for real estate trust property registration on September 25, 2025, aimed at revitalizing existing assets [8][19] Overseas Dynamics - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% on September 19, 2025, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without changes [9][20] - The European Commission approved a new round of sanctions against Russia on September 19, 2025, targeting energy, financial services, and trade restrictions [9][20] - The U.S. government announced a 15% tariff on EU automobiles and related products on September 24, 2025, as part of a trade agreement [9][20]

白酒：即时零售渠道兴起 [Table_Industry] 食品饮料 白酒新渠道专题报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 訾猛(分析师) | 021-38676442 | zimeng@gtht.com | S0880513120002 | | 颜慧菁(分析师) | 021-23183952 | yanhuijing@gtht.com | S0880525040022 | | 李美仪(分析师) | 021-38038667 | limeiyi@gtht.com | S0880524080002 | 本报告导读： 2025 年以来供需共同驱动即时零售渠道扩张，本轮渠道浪潮有望为酒类品牌提供结 构性机会，白酒、啤酒等领域具备较强渠道力和资金实力的企业有望受益。 投资要点： [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 食品饮料《关注低估值&确定性带来价值修复机 会》2025.09.20 食品饮料《社零环比降速，线上稳中有升》 2025.09.18 食品饮料《白酒报表逐步出清，茅 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Increase" rating for the gaming industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the CSI 300 index, with expected growth exceeding 15% [13]. Core Insights - In September, a total of 145 domestic games received approval, contributing to a total of 1,195 domestic game licenses issued this year, significantly higher than the 959 licenses issued in the same period last year [6][8]. - The gaming market in August showed stability, with a total revenue of 29.263 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 0.61% but a year-on-year decline of 13.01% [6][8]. - The report highlights the strong performance of leading products, such as Tencent's "Delta Action," which reached 30 million daily active users in September, and the anticipated revenue of over 300 million yuan for the new game "Valorant: Energy Action" in its first month [6][8]. Summary by Sections Game License Approvals - In September, 145 domestic games and 11 imported games received approval, with notable titles from Tencent, NetEase, and others included in the list [6][8]. - The approval rate for domestic game licenses has increased, with an average monthly issuance of 132.8 licenses in 2023, up from 88.8 in 2021 and 108.8 in 2022 [6][8]. Market Performance - The gaming market's revenue for August was 29.263 billion yuan, with mobile games generating 21.521 billion yuan and client games 6.563 billion yuan [6][8]. - The report notes that client games are experiencing growth due to cross-platform products, which enhances their profitability compared to mobile games [6][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends companies with strong content reserves and solid fundamentals, including Kain Network, 37 Interactive Entertainment, Giant Network, Perfect World, and others [6][8]. - Specific stock recommendations include Kain Network (28.94 yuan), 37 Interactive Entertainment (22.49 yuan), and Giant Network (44.87 yuan), all rated for "Increase" [7][8].

Group 1: Strategy Observation - The report highlights a recovery in the prices of domestic cyclical goods and an improvement in service consumption, particularly in first-tier cities where real estate sales have shown significant growth [1][11] - The construction demand has marginally improved, supported by ongoing anti-involution policies in industries like steel and coal, leading to price increases in coal, steel, and glass [1][11] - Service consumption has seen a month-on-month increase, with tourism in Hainan showing signs of recovery and a substantial rebound in movie box office revenues due to new film releases [1][11] Group 2: Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales in 30 major cities increased by 20.3% year-on-year, with first-tier cities seeing a 68.8% increase in transaction area [2][12] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles grew by 1.0% year-on-year, with a slight easing of price pressures in the car market [2][12] - The service consumption index in Hainan rose by 1.3% month-on-month, and movie box office revenues surged by 364.6% month-on-month and 149.0% year-on-year [2][12] Group 3: Midstream Manufacturing - Construction demand has shown slight improvement, with policies supporting steady growth in the steel industry leading to minor price increases [3][13] - Manufacturing activity has generally improved, with increased operating rates in sectors like automotive and chemicals [3][13] - Long-distance passenger transport demand has improved, with logistics activity also showing a month-on-month increase [3][13] Group 4: Upstream Resources - Coal prices have risen by 3.5% due to tight supply and pre-holiday stockpiling needs [3][13] - Industrial metal prices are under pressure due to weak domestic demand and hawkish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve [3][13] Group 5: Company-Specific Insights on Supermicro - Supermicro is positioned uniquely in the market, combining independent product development with custom manufacturing capabilities, distinguishing it from traditional OEM and ODM models [5][26] - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth, with projected total revenues of $31.82 billion, $38.44 billion, and $49.55 billion for 2026E to 2028E [5][25] - Supermicro's product performance is notable, with its AI server product line keeping pace with chip updates, and it actively collaborates with the open-source community to optimize AI cluster software [5][27]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to the company with a target price of 45.30 CNY, while the current price is 37.48 CNY [5]. Core Insights - The company has a rich downstream scenario and outstanding capability for intelligent implementation, with high long-term investment in R&D and rapid order growth, indicating that performance is expected to enter a sustained release period [2]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 976 million CNY in 2023 to 2,672 million CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.8% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 110 million CNY in 2023 to 283 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 27.3% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.08 CNY in 2023 to 2.75 CNY in 2027 [4]. Revenue Forecast and Valuation - The company’s revenue is expected to grow significantly, with a projected increase of 30% in 2025, 40% in 2026, and 20% in 2027 for its core business [14]. - The report uses a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 30x for 2025, leading to a target price of 45.3 CNY per share [17]. Business Model and Market Position - The company operates in the intelligent logistics sector, focusing on smart robots and comprehensive logistics solutions, and is one of the few in the industry with self-developed hardware and software capabilities [19][22]. - The company has established a strong market presence with a significant increase in orders, achieving 15 billion CNY in new orders in the first half of 2025, a 96% year-on-year growth [23][14]. R&D and Technological Investment - The company maintains a high level of R&D investment, with a research expense ratio consistently above 8% since 2020, and 10.33% in the first half of 2025 [40][4]. - The focus areas for R&D include intelligent algorithms, digital twins, and 3D visual recognition technologies [10]. Financial Performance - The company has demonstrated strong financial performance, with revenue growing from 151 million CNY in 2017 to 1,207 million CNY in 2024, representing a CAGR of 34.6% [29]. - The net profit has also seen substantial growth, increasing from 5 million CNY in 2017 to 112 million CNY in 2024, with a CAGR of 54.6% [29].