Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to the company with a target price of 45.30 CNY, while the current price is 37.48 CNY [5]. Core Insights - The company has a rich downstream scenario and outstanding capability for intelligent implementation, with high long-term investment in R&D and rapid order growth, indicating that performance is expected to enter a sustained release period [2]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 976 million CNY in 2023 to 2,672 million CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.8% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 110 million CNY in 2023 to 283 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 27.3% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.08 CNY in 2023 to 2.75 CNY in 2027 [4]. Revenue Forecast and Valuation - The company’s revenue is expected to grow significantly, with a projected increase of 30% in 2025, 40% in 2026, and 20% in 2027 for its core business [14]. - The report uses a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 30x for 2025, leading to a target price of 45.3 CNY per share [17]. Business Model and Market Position - The company operates in the intelligent logistics sector, focusing on smart robots and comprehensive logistics solutions, and is one of the few in the industry with self-developed hardware and software capabilities [19][22]. - The company has established a strong market presence with a significant increase in orders, achieving 15 billion CNY in new orders in the first half of 2025, a 96% year-on-year growth [23][14]. R&D and Technological Investment - The company maintains a high level of R&D investment, with a research expense ratio consistently above 8% since 2020, and 10.33% in the first half of 2025 [40][4]. - The focus areas for R&D include intelligent algorithms, digital twins, and 3D visual recognition technologies [10]. Financial Performance - The company has demonstrated strong financial performance, with revenue growing from 151 million CNY in 2017 to 1,207 million CNY in 2024, representing a CAGR of 34.6% [29]. - The net profit has also seen substantial growth, increasing from 5 million CNY in 2017 to 112 million CNY in 2024, with a CAGR of 54.6% [29].

墨西哥债市全览： 拉美地区成熟且结构完善的债券市场 本报告导读： 墨西哥债券市场是拉美地区最为成熟的市场之一，央行实施独立货币政策，汇率自 由浮动，外汇管制程度较低。 投资要点： 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.09.24 | [Table_Authors] | 王一凡(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-38031722 | | | wangyifan4@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524120001 | | | 唐元懋(分析师) | | | 0755-23976753 | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 久期因子仍不占优 2025.09.23 聚焦回调后中短端票息价值 2025.09.16 从五浪到 M 顶调整:技术分析视角下的本轮回调 2025.09.10 第二批科创债 ETF 如何筛选—三个维度与一个变 量 2025.09.10 攻守兼备：国泰海通十大转债 2025.09.09 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 ...

8 月重卡同比五连增，天然气迎来复苏 [Table_Industry] 汽车 2025 年 8 月重卡行业月报 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘一鸣(分析师) | 021-23154145 | liuyiming@gtht.com | S0880525040050 | | 张予名(研究助理) | 021-23154145 | zhangyuming@gtht.com | S0880125042241 | 本报告导读： 总量上看，8 月国产重卡销量 9.2 万台，同比增长 47%，环比增长 8%。聚焦天然气 重卡，8 月国产天然气重卡销量 1.6 万台，同比增长 32%，环比增长 30%。 汽车《优必选获新订单，特斯拉发布第四篇章》 2025.09.08 股 票 研 究 究 报 告 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 汽车《国内乘用车市场价格战持续放缓》 2025.09.21 汽车《L2 强标开启征求意见，智驾商业化更进一 步》2025.09.18 汽车《《汽车行业稳增长工作方案》发布，推动汽 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Cautious Accumulate" rating to the company [2][25]. Core Insights - The competitive landscape is diversifying, with growth driven by AI technology, indicating significant industry potential [3]. - The company is positioned uniquely in the market, combining self-developed products with customized manufacturing capabilities, distinguishing it from traditional OEM and ODM players [8]. - The company is experiencing rapid revenue growth while facing profit pressures, necessitating a valuation approach that considers future profit improvement expectations [8][50]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from $14.94 billion in FY2024 to $49.55 billion in FY2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 109.8%, 47.0%, 44.8%, 20.8%, and 28.9% respectively [4][26]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to fluctuate, with a forecast of $1.34 billion in FY2024, $1.28 billion in FY2025, and increasing to $2.27 billion by FY2028 [4][34]. - The company’s gross profit margin is projected to recover gradually, reaching 14.82% by FY2028 [15][50]. Valuation and Investment Recommendations - The report estimates a reasonable market value of $31.25 billion for the company, with a target price of $52.59 per share based on a cautious approach [25]. - The valuation methods include both P/E and P/S ratios, reflecting the company's growth potential and current profitability levels [18][25]. Industry Analysis - The server and computing infrastructure market is characterized as a blue ocean driven by AI, with significant growth opportunities [13]. - The competitive dynamics include traditional brand manufacturers consolidating their market positions while ODM manufacturers are experiencing rapid growth due to large customer demands [8][13]. - The industry is witnessing a trend towards "de-branding" in IT infrastructure, creating opportunities for white-label products [13].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Counter-Cyclical Allocation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Predict the macroeconomic environment using proxy variables and allocate assets that perform best under the predicted environment[26][31] - **Model Construction Process**: - Use proxy variables to forecast the macroeconomic environment (e.g., Inflation, Growth, etc.) - Allocate assets based on historical performance under the predicted environment - For Q3 2025, the model predicted an "Inflation" environment, leading to allocations in CSI 300, CSI 2000, Nanhua Commodity Index, and ChinaBond Total Wealth Index[26] - **Model Evaluation**: Provides a systematic approach to asset allocation based on macroeconomic conditions[26] 2. Model Name: Macro Momentum Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Constructed using multiple dimensions such as economic growth, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and risk sentiment to time asset classes like stocks and bonds[26] - **Model Construction Process**: - Incorporate macroeconomic indicators, positioning data, volume-price factors, and sentiment factors - Apply the model to time assets such as CSI 300, ChinaBond Total Wealth Index, and gold contracts (AU9999)[26] - **Model Evaluation**: Offers a multi-dimensional perspective for timing asset allocation[26] 3. Model Name: Multi-Factor Industry Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Combines historical fundamentals, expected fundamentals, sentiment, volume-price technicals, and macroeconomic factors to rotate among industries[27] - **Model Construction Process**: - Match ETFs with their corresponding CSI Level-1 industries - Use a pool of 23 industries to construct the benchmark - Allocate weights to ETFs based on the model's output[27][29] - **Model Evaluation**: Provides a structured approach to industry rotation, leveraging multiple factor dimensions[27] 4. Model Name: Absolute Return Strategies (Blended Models) - **Model Construction Idea**: Combine macro timing and industry rotation strategies with asset rebalancing to achieve absolute returns[31][37] - **Model Construction Process**: - Implement 20/80 stock-bond rebalancing and risk parity strategies - Enhance these strategies with macro timing and industry ETF rotation[31][37] - **Model Evaluation**: Enhances traditional rebalancing strategies with timing and rotation components for better returns[31][37] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Counter-Cyclical Allocation Model - CSI 300 Q3 2025 Return: 14.38%[26] - CSI 2000 Q3 2025 Return: 16.58%[26] - Nanhua Commodity Index Q3 2025 Return: 4.17%[26] - ChinaBond Total Wealth Index Q3 2025 Return: -1.08%[26] 2. Macro Momentum Model - CSI 300 September 2025 Return: 0.11%[26] - ChinaBond Total Wealth Index September 2025 Return: -0.31%[26] - AU9999 Gold Contract September 2025 Return: 5.72%[26] 3. Multi-Factor Industry Rotation Model - Weekly Return: 0.61% (Excess Return: 0.79% over Wind All A Index)[27][28] - Monthly Return (September 2025): 0.82% (Excess Return: 0.28% over Wind All A Index)[27][28] 4. Absolute Return Strategies (Blended Models) - **Macro Timing + 20/80 Rebalancing**: - Weekly Return: -0.10% - Monthly Return: -0.09% - YTD Return: 3.85% - Annualized Volatility: 3.38% - Max Drawdown: 1.78% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.61[32] - **Macro Timing + Risk Parity**: - Weekly Return: -0.01% - Monthly Return: -0.15% - YTD Return: 1.58% - Annualized Volatility: 1.75% - Max Drawdown: 1.50% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.27[32] - **Macro Timing + Industry ETF Rotation + 20/80 Rebalancing**: - Weekly Return: 0.22% - Monthly Return: 0.21% - YTD Return: 7.83% - Annualized Volatility: 5.28% - Max Drawdown: 2.54% - Sharpe Ratio: 2.12[32] - **Macro Timing + Industry ETF Rotation + Risk Parity**: - Weekly Return: 0.11% - Monthly Return: -0.03% - YTD Return: 2.94% - Annualized Volatility: 2.18% - Max Drawdown: 1.45% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.90[32] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: PB Earnings - **Factor Construction Idea**: Focuses on price-to-book ratios and earnings growth to identify undervalued stocks with growth potential[39][41] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate PB ratios for stocks - Combine with earnings growth metrics to rank stocks[39][41] - **Factor Evaluation**: Targets value-oriented opportunities with growth potential[39][41] 2. Factor Name: High Dividend Yield - **Factor Construction Idea**: Selects stocks with high dividend yields for stable income generation[39][41] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Rank stocks based on dividend yield - Adjust for payout sustainability metrics[39][41] - **Factor Evaluation**: Suitable for income-focused strategies[39][41] 3. Factor Name: Small-Cap Value - **Factor Construction Idea**: Targets small-cap stocks with low valuations for higher growth potential[39][41] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Identify small-cap stocks - Rank based on valuation metrics like P/E and P/B ratios[39][41] - **Factor Evaluation**: Captures the small-cap premium with a value tilt[39][41] 4. Factor Name: Small-Cap Growth - **Factor Construction Idea**: Focuses on small-cap stocks with high growth potential[39][41] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Identify small-cap stocks - Rank based on growth metrics like revenue and earnings growth rates[39][41] - **Factor Evaluation**: Targets high-growth opportunities in the small-cap space[39][41] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. PB Earnings - **10/90 Rebalancing**: - Weekly Return: -0.18% - Monthly Return: -0.04% - YTD Return: 2.49% - Annualized Volatility: 2.34% - Max Drawdown: 1.82% - Sharpe Ratio: -0.01[41] - **20/80 Rebalancing**: - Weekly Return: -0.39% - Monthly Return: -0.11% - YTD Return: 4.06% - Annualized Volatility: 4.71% - Max Drawdown: 3.79% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.19[41] 2. High Dividend Yield - **10/90 Rebalancing**: - Weekly Return: -0.12% - Monthly Return: -0.09% - YTD Return: 1.91% - Annualized Volatility: 2.09% - Max Drawdown: 1.39% - Sharpe Ratio: -0.18[41] - **20/80 Rebalancing**: - Weekly Return: -0.28% - Monthly Return: -0.22% - YTD Return: 2.88% - Annualized Volatility: 4.19% - Max Drawdown: 3.47% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.05[41] 3. Small-Cap Value - **10/90 Rebalancing**: - Weekly Return: -0.27% - Monthly Return: -0.07% - YTD Return: 5.35% - Annualized Volatility: 3.55% - Max Drawdown: 3.69% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.47[41] - **20/80 Rebalancing**: - Weekly Return: -0.57% - Monthly Return: -0.16% - YTD Return: 9.91% - Annualized Volatility: 7.14% - Max Drawdown: 7.74% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.60[41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yifeng Pharmacy with a target price of 36.00 CNY [6][13]. Core Views - The report highlights that the overall off-hospital pharmaceutical retail industry remains under pressure, but Yifeng Pharmacy, as a leading player in the pharmacy sector, maintains a steady operational rhythm and continues to enhance its profitability. There is optimism for a recovery in performance growth in the second half of the year [2][13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 22,588 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 13.6%. By 2025, revenue is expected to reach 24,690 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 2.6% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,412 million CNY in 2023, increasing to 1,749 million CNY by 2025, which represents a growth of 14.4% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 1.16 CNY in 2023 to 1.44 CNY in 2025 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 14.4% in 2023, slightly increasing to 14.8% by 2025 [4]. Operational Insights - As of the first half of 2025, Yifeng Pharmacy operates 14,701 stores, with 10,681 being directly operated and 4,070 franchised. The pace of store expansion has slowed, with 81 new stores opened and 272 closed in the first half of the year [13]. - Retail business revenue for the first half of 2025 is reported at 101.99 billion CNY, showing a decline of 1.91% year-on-year, while the gross margin improved by 1.04 percentage points to 41.99% [13]. Product Performance - Revenue from traditional Chinese and Western medicine is reported at 88.99 billion CNY, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.24%. The gross margin for this segment increased by 0.77 percentage points to 35.62% [13]. - Non-pharmaceutical revenue has faced challenges, with a reported decline of 2.44% year-on-year [13].

Group 1: Fixed Income Research - The adjustment of the 14-day reverse repurchase auction method is essentially a continuation of previous policy thoughts, with limited incremental information being conveyed [3][17] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) maintains a strong continuity in its monetary policy approach, with the recent adjustments aimed at stabilizing liquidity rather than signaling a shift towards more accommodative policies [2][19] - The actual pricing ability of the 14-day reverse repurchase is limited, and it is likely to continue being used as an unconventional tool to address special periods such as holidays [4][18] Group 2: Construction Industry - In the 38th week of 2025, the issuance of new special bonds by local governments decreased by 25.8% compared to the previous week, with a total issuance of 978.2 billion yuan [8] - The financing net amount of urban investment bonds decreased year-on-year, indicating a contraction in funding for construction projects [8] - The construction site funding availability rate was reported at 59.39%, showing a slight week-on-week increase but a year-on-year decline of 3.13% [8] Group 3: Real Estate Market - New housing transaction area in 30 major cities increased by 7.7% week-on-week, while second-hand housing transaction area decreased by 4.2% [9] - The cumulative transaction area for new homes this year is down 2.6% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in the real estate market [9] - Land supply in 100 cities decreased by 13.7% year-on-year, reflecting a contraction in the real estate development pipeline [9] Group 4: Company Analysis - China Power Construction Corporation signed new orders worth 800.79 billion yuan from January to August 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [11] - China Chemical Corporation's new orders for the same period were 256.34 billion yuan, showing a minimal year-on-year increase of 0.1% [11] - China Metallurgical Group Corporation's new orders decreased by 18.2% year-on-year, indicating challenges in securing new contracts [11] Group 5: Xiaomi Group - Xiaomi's revenue projections for FY2025E-FY2027E are maintained at 489.1 billion, 641.8 billion, and 758.4 billion yuan respectively, with adjusted net profit forecasts of 45.4 billion, 68.1 billion, and 83.6 billion yuan [12] - The company is expected to exceed its annual delivery target of 350,000 vehicles, with stable delivery volumes above 30,000 units in July and August [13] - The air conditioning segment saw a significant increase in shipments, with over 5.4 million units sold in Q2 2025, reflecting a 60% year-on-year growth [14] Group 6: Industry Trends - The global wind power installation volume is expected to continue growing, with significant contributions from China, Europe, and North America [26] - The demand for wind turbine blade materials is anticipated to expand due to policy encouragement and declining costs [24] - The chemical raw materials manufacturing industry has a current static P/E ratio of 27.95, indicating a competitive valuation landscape [27]

Fund Issuance - Eight new ESG funds were launched this month, with a total issuance of 3.749 billion units, primarily focused on social responsibility and environmental protection[9] - A total of 251 ESG public funds were issued in the past year, with a total issuance of 175.353 billion units[9] - The total net asset value of existing ESG funds reached 1,029.312 billion RMB, with ESG strategy funds accounting for the largest share at 50.46%[11] Market Performance - During the week of September 15-19, 2025, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.44%, while the ESG 300 index rose by 0.39%[5] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market was approximately 2.52 trillion RMB, indicating a loosening of liquidity[5] Green Bonds - A total of 43 new green bonds were issued in the interbank and exchange markets last week, with a planned issuance scale of approximately 34.468 billion RMB[16] - In September 2025, 120 ESG bonds were issued, amounting to 54.2 billion RMB, with a total of 1,095 ESG bonds issued in the past year, totaling 1,189.9 billion RMB[16] Bank Wealth Management Products - 67 ESG bank wealth management products were issued this month, with a total of 1,102 existing products in the market[22] - Pure ESG products accounted for the largest share at 55.99% among existing ESG bank wealth management products[22] Risk Factors - Potential risks include insufficient policy support for ESG initiatives, lack of unified data reporting standards, and lower-than-expected product issuance scales[25]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in carbon capture technology and the establishment of international standards, indicating a shift towards more structured and regulated practices in the industry [16] - The continuous release of the "China Carbon Neutral Development Index" over five years reflects the ongoing transformation in the economy and society under the dual carbon strategy, providing a reference for future planning [21] - The establishment of a carbon footprint management system in Jilin Province aims to enhance product competitiveness and align with international carbon trade policies [12] Policy Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "New Energy Storage Scale Construction Action Plan (2025-2027)", aiming for a new energy storage capacity of 180 million kilowatts by 2027, with an investment of approximately 250 billion yuan [7][8] - Jilin Province's plan includes establishing carbon footprint accounting rules for key products by 2027, promoting carbon footprint certification and management [12] Industry Trends - The first international standard for carbon capture in China has been published, providing a unified technical guideline for the development and application of carbon capture materials [16] - The "2025 China Carbon Neutral Development Index" indicates a shift from single emission reduction to a more integrated approach, emphasizing environmental governance and green finance [21][22] International Events - The World Meteorological Organization warns of increasing disruptions in global water cycles, highlighting the urgency of addressing climate change [24] - The United Nations' Marine Biodiversity Agreement will come into effect in 2026, aiming to protect marine biodiversity in international waters [25] Corporate Developments - Industrial Bank's Xiamen branch has launched the first ESG-linked financing lease loan in Fujian Province, promoting sustainable development in the financial sector [28][29] - Rongsheng Petrochemical has been recognized as an ESG demonstration case, reflecting its commitment to sustainable practices and significant achievements in environmental, social, and governance areas [30][31]

新 股 研 究 北证 50 指数震荡调整，北交所日均成交 金额回落至 300 亿元以下 ——北交所周报（2025 年 9 月第 3 周） 本报告导读： 9 月第 3 周沪深两市交易活跃度回升而北证交易活跃度有所下降，日均成交金额回 落至 300 亿元以下，北证 50 指数自前一周创历史新高后当周有所调整。当周北交所 2 只股票招股，1 只新股上市。 投资要点： 新股研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.09.23 | [Table_Authors] | | | --- | --- | | | 王政之(分析师) | | | 021-38674944 | | | wangzhengzhi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880517060002 | | | 施怡昀(分析师) | | | 021-38032690 | | | shiyiyun@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522060002 | | | 王思琪(分析师) | | | 021-38038671 | | | wangsiqi3@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080007 | [Table_ ...