证券研究报告 | 2025年10月10日 **Makel'sid.** **Hil's.Makel's.** **Hil's.Makel's. **Hil's.Makel's. 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪：截至 2025 年 10 月 10 日，上证指数、深 证成指、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、中证 2000、创业板指、科创 50 指数 250 日新高距离分别为 0.94%、2.70%、1.97%、2.00%、1.49%、 2.61%、4.55%、5.61%。中信一级行业指数中电力及公用事业、钢铁、 建材、有色金属、基础化工行业指数距离 250 日新高较近，食品饮料、 银行、消费者服务、综合金融、交通运输行业指数距离 250 日新高较远。 概念指数中，林木、充电桩、风力发电、钢铁、钢铁Ⅳ、发电设备、可 转债正股等概念指数距离 250 日新高较近。 见微知著：利用创新高个股进行市场监测：截至 2025 年 10 月 10 日，共 1235 只股票在过去 20 个交易日间创出 250 日新高。其中创新高个股数量最多的 是电子、机械、基础化工行业，创新高个股数量占比最高的是有色金属、电 子、电力设备 ...

Core Viewpoints - The mechanical industry is expected to outperform the market, driven by growth opportunities in AI infrastructure and humanoid robots [1][4][16] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-quality leading companies with structural growth opportunities [16][20] Market Overview & Key Data Tracking - In September, the mechanical industry index rose by 5.29%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.09 percentage points [1][12] - The TTM P/E and P/B ratios for the mechanical industry are approximately 38.26 and 3.12, respectively, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase [1][12] - The manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 49.80%, with a slight increase of 0.4 percentage points, while the equipment manufacturing PMI was at 51.90%, above the overall manufacturing level [1][12][19] Investment Strategy & Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on growth lines such as AI infrastructure, humanoid robots, and import substitution, particularly companies with strong fundamentals and technological capabilities [2][24] - Key investment directions include: 1. AI Infrastructure: Emphasis on AI liquid cooling, gas turbines, and cooling systems [2][25] 2. Humanoid Robots: Companies with strong positions in the supply chain, particularly those linked to Tesla [3][25] - Recommended stocks include: Huace Testing, Guodian Measurement, Yizhiming, and others [1][24][30] Key Focus Areas - AI Infrastructure: Companies like Feirongda, Gaolan Co., and others are highlighted for their potential in AI liquid cooling and related sectors [2][25][30] - Humanoid Robots: Companies such as Feirongda, Longxi Co., and others are noted for their strong market positions and growth potential [3][25][29] - Export Chain Equipment: Companies like Juxing Technology and Yizhiming are expected to benefit from overseas market expansion [30][31] Performance Forecast for Key Companies - The report provides a forecast for the third quarter of 2025 for various companies, indicating resilience in operations across the covered sectors [33] - For instance, Feirongda is projected to achieve a revenue of 18.18 billion yuan with a net profit of 1.18 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth [33]

Market Overview - The textile and apparel sector has underperformed the broader market since September, with textile manufacturing outperforming branded apparel, showing +0.1% and -1.6% respectively as of October 9 [1][13] - Key companies that have seen significant gains since September include Xin'ao Co. (+16.9%), Fengtai Enterprise (+14.9%), Adidas (+11.6%), and others [1] Brand Apparel Insights - Retail sales of clothing in August grew by 3.1% year-on-year, with a 1.3 percentage point increase from the previous month [2] - The sales pressure is expected in September due to the absence of the Mid-Autumn Festival and high temperatures affecting consumer behavior [2] - E-commerce channels showed strong growth in outdoor apparel, with sportswear brands like Descente (+51%) and Lululemon (+35%) leading the way [2] Textile Manufacturing Insights - Vietnam's textile exports in September increased by 9.4% year-on-year, while footwear exports rose by 9.0% [3] - China's textile exports showed a slight improvement in August, with a 1.4% increase, although apparel and footwear exports declined significantly [3] - Wool prices saw a notable increase in September, rising by 17.5% month-on-month and 28.3% year-on-year [3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the rebound opportunities in textile manufacturing, with expectations for order recovery in Q4 [5] - Companies like Shenzhou International, which is Nike's largest apparel supplier, and Huayi Group are highlighted as key beneficiaries of tariff changes and Nike's recovery [5] - The report suggests that the impact of tariffs will diminish in Q4, leading to a stabilization of orders [5] Key Company Forecasts - Shenzhou International is rated "Outperform" with an expected EPS of 4.37 in 2025 and a PE ratio of 13.9 [8] - Other companies such as Huayi Group and Kai Run Co. are also rated "Outperform" with positive growth forecasts [8]

Market Overview - The textile and apparel sector has underperformed the broader market since September, with textile manufacturing showing better performance than branded apparel, with respective changes of +0.1% and -1.6% as of October 9 [1][13] - Key companies that have seen significant gains since September include Xin'ao Co. (+16.9%), Fengtai Enterprise (+14.9%), Adidas (+11.6%), and others [1] Brand Apparel Insights - Retail sales of clothing increased by 3.1% year-on-year in August, with a 1.3 percentage point improvement from the previous month. However, sales in September are expected to face pressure due to the absence of the Mid-Autumn Festival and continued warm weather [2] - E-commerce channels showed strong growth in outdoor apparel, with categories like sportswear and outdoor clothing growing by 22% and 51% respectively for leading brands [2] - On social media platform Xiaohongshu, the top three brands in the sports and outdoor category saw significant follower growth, indicating strong consumer interest [2] Textile Manufacturing Insights - Vietnam's textile exports saw a year-on-year increase of 9.4% in September, while footwear exports rose by 9.0%, indicating a recovery in the sector [3] - The price of wool significantly increased in September, with a month-on-month rise of 17.5% and a year-on-year increase of 28.3% [3] - Companies like Ruohong have visibility on orders extending to Q1 2026, maintaining a revenue target of over 3 billion yuan per month [3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on textile manufacturing rebound opportunities, particularly after the release of Q3 reports. The impact of U.S. tariffs is expected to diminish, with orders stabilizing [5] - Key companies to watch include Shenzhou International, Huayi Group, and Kai Run Co., which are positioned to benefit from tariff changes and recovery in demand [5][7] - In the branded apparel segment, long-term growth is anticipated in the sports category, with recommendations for brands like Anta Sports, Xtep International, and Li Ning [7]

Group 1: Economic Structure and Demand Gap - Income distribution is increasingly skewed towards capital, leading to a concentration of wealth among high-net-worth individuals with low marginal propensity to consume, while labor income shares shrink[1] - This structural imbalance creates a persistent "demand gap," as high-income groups do not consume enough to match their income, while low-income groups lack disposable income despite their higher consumption willingness[1] - The reliance on credit expansion to mitigate demand shortfalls is limited; if debt expansion among households, government, and net exports stalls, the demand gap will widen, resulting in deflationary pressures[1] Group 2: Debt Cycle and Economic Trends - From 1992 to 2009, China experienced alternating expansions of household debt and net exports to balance supply and demand[2] - Between 2009 and 2018, household leverage rose significantly, becoming the primary driver of demand, but from 2020 to 2024, household leverage plateaued while government leverage increased, failing to prevent deflation[2] - The capital income share in China has been on the rise since 2015, and the slowdown in service sector growth from 2021 to 2024 may further exacerbate income distribution issues, increasing the demand gap[2] Group 3: Policy Implications and Historical Context - The experience of price recovery in 2016-2017 is unlikely to be replicated due to the current plateau in household leverage and a significant demand gap[3] - Structural reforms in income distribution and government spending optimization are necessary to reduce the demand gap and enable future price recovery once households regain leverage capacity[3] - Risk factors include potential market volatility abroad and uncertainties in domestic policy execution, which could impact economic stability[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the mechanical industry [4]. Core Views - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in AI infrastructure, humanoid robots, and import substitution, focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and technological capabilities [2][24]. - The mechanical industry is experiencing a structural upgrade driven by domestic industrial advancements and increasing global competitiveness [16][20]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - In September, the mechanical industry index rose by 5.29%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.09 percentage points [12]. - The TTM P/E and P/B ratios for the mechanical industry are approximately 38.26 and 3.12, respectively, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase [12]. - The manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 49.80%, with the equipment manufacturing PMI at 51.90%, indicating a positive trend [12][19]. Key Investment Directions - **AI Infrastructure**: The report highlights significant investments in AI infrastructure, particularly in AI liquid cooling systems, gas turbines, and cooling units, driven by demand for computational power [25]. - **Humanoid Robots**: The humanoid robot sector is moving towards commercialization, with several manufacturers receiving large orders, indicating a growing market [3][25]. - **Import Substitution**: The report suggests focusing on companies that are positioned well in the import substitution space, particularly those with strong fundamentals and market positions [24][28]. Recommended Companies - Key recommended companies include: - **AI Infrastructure**: Feirongda, Gaolan Co., Tongfei Co., Nanfeng Co., and Yidong Electronics [25][29]. - **Humanoid Robots**: Feirongda, Longxi Co., Weiman Sealing, Hengli Hydraulic, and Huichuan Technology [3][29]. - **General Recommendations**: Huace Detection, Guangdian Measurement, Yizhiming, and others [24][32]. Performance Forecast - The report provides a performance forecast for key companies, indicating resilience in operations with expected revenue and profit growth across various sectors [33].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5]. Core Insights - The report indicates that Nike's Q1 FY2026 performance shows a strong recovery momentum, with revenue and gross margin exceeding management guidance and Bloomberg consensus expectations. The revenue for Q1 was $11.7 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 1%, while on a constant currency basis, it declined by 1% [2][4][7]. - The report highlights that while short-term adjustments and tariff impacts persist, certain regions and product categories are showing signs of recovery. North America led the growth, while the Greater China market and Converse brand continue to face pressure [3][4][7]. Summary by Sections Performance and Guidance - FY2026 Q1 revenue and gross margin were better than management's previous guidance and Bloomberg consensus expectations. The Q2 revenue guidance is expected to decline in the low single digits. Short-term adjustments and tariff impacts are ongoing, but some regions and categories are showing recovery signs [3][4][7]. - The revenue for FY2026 Q1 was $11.7 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 1% and a constant currency decline of 1%. North America and wholesale channels drove growth, while the Greater China market and Converse brand faced ongoing pressure [2][4][7]. Regional Performance - North America showed strong performance with a revenue increase of 4% year-on-year. The Greater China region experienced a significant decline of 10%, impacted by reduced foot traffic and a highly promotional environment [4][16][17]. - The EMEA region's revenue grew by 1%, while the Asia-Pacific and Latin America regions saw a 1% increase in revenue [4][16][17]. Product and Channel Performance - The report notes that the running category performed well, with growth exceeding 20%, while classic shoe models continued to decline. Overall shoe revenue saw a reduced decline of 2%, and apparel revenue turned positive with a growth rate of 7% [9][8]. - In terms of channels, the direct-to-consumer (DTC) revenue declined by 5%, primarily due to a 12% drop in digital sales, while wholesale revenue increased by 5% [8][9]. Management Guidance - For Q2 FY2026, management expects wholesale revenue to recover modestly, while direct-to-consumer revenue is not anticipated to recover. The Greater China region and Converse brand are expected to continue exerting pressure on revenue and gross margin throughout the fiscal year [31][32]. - The gross margin is projected to decline by approximately 300 to 375 basis points, with new tariffs contributing about 175 basis points to this decline [31][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality suppliers and retailers within the industry chain, particularly Shenzhou International and Huayi Group, as well as core retailer Taobo, which is expected to benefit from Nike's recovery and increased new product ratios [34].

- The report discusses the performance of various indices on October 9, 2025, highlighting that most indices were in an upward trend, with the CSI 500 Index performing particularly well, increasing by 1.84%[6] - The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index also showed strong performance, rising by 2.93%[6] - The CSI 500 Value Index was the best-performing style index, increasing by 1.75%[6] - The report provides detailed data on the performance of different sectors, with the non-ferrous metals sector showing the highest return of 7.54%[7] - The report includes information on market sentiment, noting that 98 stocks hit the daily limit up and 26 stocks hit the daily limit down on October 9, 2025[13] - The report also covers the financing and securities lending balance, which stood at 24,455 billion yuan as of October 9, 2025, with a financing balance of 24,292 billion yuan and a securities lending balance of 164 billion yuan[18] - The report provides data on the premium and discount rates of ETFs, with the highest premium being 1.38% for the ChiNext 50 ETF and the highest discount being 0.55% for the Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen 500 ETF[22] - The report includes information on block trading, noting that the average discount rate over the past six months was 6.10%, with a discount rate of 4.47% on September 30, 2025[25] - The report discusses the annualized discount rates of stock index futures, with the CSI 500 Index futures having an annualized discount rate of 8.64% on October 9, 2025[27] - The report provides data on institutional research, noting that Jiufeng Energy was the most researched stock in the past week, with 110 institutions conducting research on it[29] - The report includes data on the top ten stocks with the highest net inflows and outflows from institutional seats and Northbound funds on October 9, 2025, with Ganfeng Lithium having the highest net inflow[35][36]

The provided content does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors, nor does it include detailed construction processes, formulas, or backtesting results related to quantitative analysis. The documents primarily focus on market performance, sector analysis, institutional activities, and other general financial data. Therefore, there are no quantitative models or factors to summarize from the given content.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-W (09988.HK) is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6][20] Core Views - The report anticipates a 4% year-on-year revenue growth for 2QFY26, with adjusted EBITA margin at 3.5%. Revenue is expected to reach 245.6 billion yuan, driven by a 17% increase in international digital commerce and a 30% increase in cloud intelligence revenue, while the Chinese e-commerce group is projected to decline by 13% quarter-on-quarter [3][5][20] - The cloud segment is expected to continue accelerating growth with a 30% year-on-year revenue increase, while maintaining stable EBITA margins. The company is actively advancing its AI infrastructure with a planned investment of 380 billion yuan [3][11][20] - The Chinese e-commerce group is projected to achieve a GMV growth of 5% year-on-year, with a take rate increase. However, the report notes that the profit margin is expected to continue declining due to competitive pressures [3][18][20] Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts - Revenue for FY2026 is adjusted to 1,050.3 billion yuan, with a slight decrease of 1.5%. The adjusted net profit forecast for FY2026 is revised to 108.4 billion yuan, reflecting a 14% decrease due to higher-than-expected investments in flash sales and AI-related costs [4][20][23] Cloud Intelligence Group - The cloud segment is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 30% year-on-year in FY26Q2, with stable EBITA margins. The company has launched several AI models and upgraded its AI infrastructure significantly [11][12][13] Chinese E-commerce Group - The report estimates a 5% year-on-year GMV growth for FY26Q2, with a focus on maintaining market share despite competitive pressures. The adjusted EBITA loss for instant retail is expected to be 36.5 billion yuan, with a peak in losses observed in August [18][19][20] Other Segments - The AIDC segment is expected to see a slowdown in revenue growth, maintaining a near breakeven performance. Other segments are projected to incur losses of around 5 billion yuan due to increased AI application costs and investments in delivery services [19][20]