2025年07月06日 证券研究报告 | 长沙银行（601577.SH） 估值洼地+高增长潜力 公司研究 · 公司快评 银行业 · 城商行 投资评级：优于大市（维持） | 证券分析师：田维韦 | 证券分析师：王剑 | | --- | --- | | 021-60875161 | 021-60875165 | | tianweiwei@guosen.com.cn | wangjian@guosen.com.cn | | S0980520030002 | S0980518070002 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 Ø 公司约0.6xPB估值提供了足够的安全边际，目前低估值反映的市场对其资产质量的担忧可能过度。 • 一是，公司零售贷款占比处在上市城商行较高水平，零售不良压力较大是现实困境，但市场担忧可能过度。零售贷款中消费贷和个人经营贷不良暴露延续是行业共性，公司 积极应对，加大零售不良确认处置，同时积极调整零售信贷投放，零售存量不良出清只是时间问题。市场对于公司零售信贷不良的过度担忧来源于近年来公司积极开拓县域 市场，认为客群资质下沉后不 ...

ESG热点周聚焦（7月第1期） 核聚变商用迈入新阶段 策略研究 · 策略专题 证券分析师：王开 证券分析师：陈凯畅 021-60933132 021-60375429 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn chenkaichang@guosen.com.cn S0980521030001 S0980523090002 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 2025年7月6日 证券研究报告 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 ◼ 海外ESG热点事件：全球ESG发展下大量的机构和企业通过绿色债券、融资、可持续发展业务等方式共同助力能源结构转型应对气候变化，多项政策和 法律进入修改、意见征询阶段。在绿色金融方面，拉丁美洲和加勒比开发银行批准为10个国家的16项可持续发展业务提供52亿美元资金；欧盟和欧洲 投资银行推出50亿欧元灵活担保，旨在促进清洁能源和绿色基础设施项目；瑞银为专注于可持续发展目标的混合金融基金筹集1亿美元。在碳中和方 面，欧盟委员会提出税收优惠措施以加速清洁工业转型；摩根大通Kinexys在碳市场试点区块链，开发基于区块链的应用程序代币化全球碳信用；欧 洲首 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月06日 宏观经济宏观周报 高频指标逆季节性上升 主要结论：高频指标逆季节性上升。 风险提示：海外市场动荡，存在不确定性。 经济增长方面，本周(7 月 4 日所在周）国信高频宏观扩散指数 A 由负转正， 指数 B 有所回升。从分项来看，本周投资领域景气有所回升，消费、房地产 领域景气基本保持不变，本周投资表现较优。从季节性比较来看，本周指数 B 标准化后逆季节性上升 0.14，表现优于历史平均水平，指向国内经济增长 动能有所改善。 核心观点 经济研究·宏观周报 S0980516060001 S0980524090003 证券分析师：李智能 证券分析师：田地 0755-22940456 0755-81982035 lizn@guosen.com.cn tiandi2@guosen.com.cn 证券分析师：董德志 021-60933158 dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980513100001 基于国信高频宏观扩散指数对资产价格进行预测，显示当前国内利率偏低， 上证综合指数偏高，从均值回归的角度看，预计下周（2025 年 7 月 11 日所 在周）十年期国债利率将 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the Hong Kong stock market [4] Core Insights - The market is experiencing a high-level pullback with differentiation in styles and sectors, as evidenced by the performance of various indices [1] - There is significant capital inflow into non-bank financials and pharmaceuticals, indicating strong investor interest in these sectors [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) expectations have been revised upward for several industries, particularly steel and consumer services, suggesting a positive outlook for these sectors [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.5%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 2.3%. In contrast, small-cap stocks outperformed with a gain of 2.3% [1] - Among the concept indices, the Hang Seng Innovation Drug Index rose by 7.7%, while the Hang Seng Internet Index dropped by 2.4% [1] Capital Flow - The average daily capital inflow into Hong Kong Stock Connect constituents was +4.8 million HKD per day, down from +19.9 million HKD the previous week [2] - Key sectors with capital inflow included non-bank financials (+3.6 million HKD/day) and pharmaceuticals (+3.1 million HKD/day) [2] Earnings Forecast - Overall EPS expectations for Hong Kong Stock Connect constituents were revised up by 0.2%, with notable increases in the steel sector (+2.1%) and consumer services (+2.1%) [3] - Four sectors saw downward revisions in EPS expectations, including non-ferrous metals (-0.7%) and coal (-0.7%) [3] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included comprehensive services (+17.6%), electric equipment and new energy (+10.9%), and steel (+9.6%) [16] - Conversely, the weakest sectors were retail trade (-4.1%) and media (-2.8%) [16]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 increased by 1.7% this week, while the Nasdaq rose by 1.6%[3] - Small-cap value stocks (Russell 2000 Value) outperformed with a gain of 4.6%, compared to small-cap growth (Russell 2000 Growth) at 2.6%[3] Sector Performance - The technology hardware and equipment sector led with a 5.4% increase, followed by banks at 4.2% and durable goods and apparel at 3.9%[3] - Four sectors experienced declines, with the automotive and components sector down by 1.4%[3] Fund Flows - Estimated fund inflow for S&P 500 components was $2.34 billion this week, a significant decrease from $18.17 billion the previous week[4] - The technology hardware and equipment sector saw the highest inflow at $1.4 billion, while healthcare equipment and services experienced an outflow of $2.62 billion[4] Earnings Forecast - The dynamic F12M EPS forecast for S&P 500 components was adjusted upward by 0.2% this week, following a 0.3% increase last week[5] - The semiconductor products and equipment sector had the largest upward revision at 0.5%, while the automotive sector was revised down by 2.1%[5] Economic Risks - Key risks include uncertainties in economic fundamentals, international political situations, U.S. fiscal policy, and Federal Reserve monetary policy[5]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the integration of AI in asset allocation, enhancing the predictive capabilities of stock and bond performance through a dynamic weighting system [2][3] - The AI-driven model has successfully predicted market trends, including the recent performance of value stocks outperforming growth stocks in March and April [3] - Predictions for 2025 indicate that bond assets will maintain relative advantages, while stock market performance is expected to stabilize at the bottom in Q3 and slightly recover in Q4 [3] Asset Allocation Framework - The AI-enabled research system combines five major cycles to predict stock and bond performance, with a current high weighting of 55% on the monetary credit framework [2][3] - The allocation for domestic assets in July shows: 12.64% in equities, 3.58% in dividends, 76.45% in bonds, and 7.33% in gold, with adjustments compared to traditional risk parity models [4] - For overseas markets, the allocation includes: France 15.62%, Germany 14.85%, the US 20.24%, Japan 16.44%, Hong Kong 11.50%, and India 22.35%, with slight adjustments in France, Germany, and Hong Kong [4] Industry Rotation Strategy - The AI-driven industry rotation strategy has significantly improved performance metrics, achieving a 420% increase in the Sharpe ratio and a 41% reduction in maximum drawdown compared to traditional strategies [5] - The latest industry outlook for Q3 suggests overweight positions in machinery, comprehensive sectors, and electronics, while maintaining standard positions in automotive, communication, and construction, and underweighting banking and retail [5]

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月05日 港股通科技 ETF（159262）投资价值分析 优于大市 科技浪潮窗口遇见穿越周期的投资选择 港股科技板块投资正逢 AI 创新的浪潮之巅 在我们的科技周期框架下观察，未来 3-4 年或将是 AI 技术革命的应用落地 和集中变现阶段。以美股的历史经验来看，历史上其他技术革命（包括集成 电路、个人电脑、互联网、移动互联网）的对应阶段下，纳斯达克指数平均 收益率会显著高于其他阶段。我们认为相同的规律也将反映在港股科技板块 上。港股科技板块涵盖了 AI 技术革命的主要参与者，包括互联网、消费电 子、半导体、软件，它们均显著受益于 AI 的发展机遇。 其中，互联网行业在渗透已经比较充分的背景下，AI 能帮助企业发掘流量价 值，并带来细分领域的发展机遇；消费电子受益于 AI 带来的产品换代与形 式转变的同时，正享受国家结构性政策的利好；半导体在 AI 引发算力军备 竞赛与美国技术封锁的背景下，受到技术迭代和国产替代的共振催化；软件 受益于 AI 带来的提质增效，港股的 SaaS 龙头将是软件业的增长引擎。 恒生港股通科技主题指数：高纯度硬科技配置，长线投资优选 恒生港股通科技主题 ...

- The report tracks the performance of Guosen JinGong's index enhancement portfolios and public fund index enhancement products, alongside monitoring the performance of common stock selection factors across different stock selection spaces [12][13][16] - Guosen JinGong's index enhancement portfolios are constructed based on three main components: return prediction, risk control, and portfolio optimization. These portfolios are benchmarked against indices such as CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI A500 [13][15] - The MFE (Maximized Factor Exposure) portfolio is used to test the effectiveness of individual factors under real-world constraints. The optimization model maximizes single-factor exposure while controlling for style, industry, stock weight deviations, and other constraints. The formula for the optimization model is: $\begin{array}{ll}max&f^{T}\ w\\ s.t.&s_{l}\leq X(w-w_{b})\leq s_{h}\\ &h_{l}\leq H(w-w_{b})\leq h_{h}\\ &w_{l}\leq w-w_{b}\leq w_{h}\\ &b_{l}\leq B_{b}w\leq b_{h}\\ &\mathbf{0}\leq w\leq l\\ &\mathbf{1}^{T}\ w=1\end{array}$ where `f` represents factor values, `w` is the stock weight vector, and constraints include style exposure (`X`), industry exposure (`H`), stock weight deviation (`w`), and component stock weight limits (`B_b`) [40][41][42] - The factor library includes over 30 factors categorized into valuation, reversal, growth, profitability, liquidity, corporate governance, and analyst dimensions. Examples include BP (Net Asset/Market Cap), single-quarter EP (Net Profit/Market Cap), and EPTTM (TTM Net Profit/Market Cap) [17][18] - Factor performance varies across different stock selection spaces. For CSI 300, factors like single-quarter EP, EPTTM, and expected EPTTM performed well recently, while factors like three-month volatility and expected net profit QoQ performed poorly [19][20] - For CSI 500, factors such as single-quarter ROE, DELTAROE, and single-quarter EP showed strong performance recently, whereas factors like one-year momentum and three-month reversal underperformed [21][22] - In the CSI 1000 space, factors like standardized unexpected earnings, EPTTM, and single-quarter EP performed well, while factors like non-liquidity impact and three-month institutional coverage lagged [23][24] - For CSI A500, factors such as expected EPTTM, single-quarter ROE, and expected PEG showed strong performance, while factors like one-year momentum and expected net profit QoQ underperformed [25][26] - In the public fund heavy index space, factors like expected PEG, expected EPTTM, and single-quarter EP performed well recently, while factors like one-month reversal and one-month volatility performed poorly [27][28] - Public fund index enhancement products are tracked for their excess returns relative to benchmarks. For CSI 300 products, the highest weekly excess return was 1.02%, and the lowest was -0.37%, with a median of 0.08% [29][33] - CSI 500 products showed a weekly excess return range of 1.87% to -0.44%, with a median of 0.38% [34][35] - CSI 1000 products had a weekly excess return range of 1.06% to -0.43%, with a median of 0.38% [36][37] - CSI A500 products showed a weekly excess return range of 0.73% to -0.19%, with a median of 0.17% [38][39]

- The report discusses the market performance of various indices, including the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, which performed well with a rise of 0.58%[6] - The report highlights the performance of sector indices, noting that the banking, comprehensive finance, media, steel, and pharmaceutical industries performed well, with returns of 1.85%, 1.13%, 0.72%, 0.52%, and 0.41%, respectively[7] - The report provides data on market sentiment, including the number of stocks that hit their daily limit up and down, with 41 stocks hitting the limit up and 13 stocks hitting the limit down at the close of trading[12] - The report includes information on the financing and securities lending balance, which stood at 18,591 billion yuan as of July 3, 2025, with a financing balance of 18,464 billion yuan and a securities lending balance of 127 billion yuan[16] - The report discusses the premium and discount rates of ETFs, noting that the innovative drug ETF Huatai Bairui had the highest premium at 0.92%, while the Kechuang New Materials ETF Huatai Bairui had the highest discount at 0.74%[20] - The report provides data on block trading, noting that the average daily transaction amount over the past six months was 1.2 billion yuan, with the transaction amount on July 3, 2025, being 1.8 billion yuan and the average discount rate over the past six months being 5.75%[23] - The report discusses the annualized discount rates of stock index futures, noting that the annualized discount rates of the main contracts of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures were 3.86%, 5.27%, 15.75%, and 14.40%, respectively, on July 4, 2025[25] - The report provides data on institutional attention and the Dragon and Tiger list, noting that the stocks with the highest net inflows from institutional seats were Shenzhou Cells, Xice Testing, Longyang Electronics, Guangsheng Tang, Nanling Technology, Rejing Biology, Desheng Technology, Yihong New Materials, Xuedilong, and Canning Power[27][30][33] - The report includes data on the net inflows and outflows of stocks from the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, noting that the stocks with the highest net inflows were Beijing New Pharmaceuticals, Hengbao Shares, Bomin Electronics, Longyang Electronics, Guangsheng Tang, and Shenzhou Cells[34]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the "Growth and Stability" portfolio has achieved an absolute return of 24.13% year-to-date, outperforming the mixed equity fund index by 15.92% [2][45] - The "Excellent Fund Performance Enhancement" portfolio has an absolute return of 6.35% year-to-date, underperforming the mixed equity fund index by 1.86% [1][24] - The "Brokerage Golden Stock Performance Enhancement" portfolio has achieved an absolute return of 10.21% year-to-date, outperforming the mixed equity fund index by 2.00% [1][40] Group 2 - The "Super Expected Selection" portfolio has an absolute return of 17.50% year-to-date, outperforming the mixed equity fund index by 9.30% [1][33] - The report indicates that 53% of stocks increased in value this week, with a median stock return of 0.24% [2][49] - The report also notes that 70% of stocks have increased in value year-to-date, with a median stock return of 9.64% [2][49] Group 3 - The "Excellent Fund Performance Enhancement" strategy aims to outperform the median return of actively managed equity funds by utilizing a quantitative approach based on the holdings of top-performing funds [3][17] - The "Super Expected Selection" strategy focuses on selecting stocks that have shown positive earnings surprises, combining fundamental and technical analysis [4][56] - The "Brokerage Golden Stock Performance Enhancement" strategy is designed to optimize stock selection from a pool of stocks recommended by brokerage firms, aiming to outperform the mixed equity fund index [5][61] Group 4 - The "Growth and Stability" strategy employs a two-dimensional evaluation system for growth stocks, prioritizing those with upcoming earnings announcements to capture potential excess returns [6][66] - The report emphasizes that the "Growth and Stability" portfolio has achieved a year-to-date return of 24.13%, significantly outperforming the mixed equity fund index [2][42] - The "Super Expected Selection" portfolio has consistently ranked in the top 30% of actively managed equity funds since its inception [57][59]