Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the Hong Kong stock market [4] Core Insights - The market is experiencing a high-level pullback with differentiation in styles and sectors, as evidenced by the performance of various indices [1] - There is significant capital inflow into non-bank financials and pharmaceuticals, indicating strong investor interest in these sectors [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) expectations have been revised upward for several industries, particularly steel and consumer services, suggesting a positive outlook for these sectors [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.5%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 2.3%. In contrast, small-cap stocks outperformed with a gain of 2.3% [1] - Among the concept indices, the Hang Seng Innovation Drug Index rose by 7.7%, while the Hang Seng Internet Index dropped by 2.4% [1] Capital Flow - The average daily capital inflow into Hong Kong Stock Connect constituents was +4.8 million HKD per day, down from +19.9 million HKD the previous week [2] - Key sectors with capital inflow included non-bank financials (+3.6 million HKD/day) and pharmaceuticals (+3.1 million HKD/day) [2] Earnings Forecast - Overall EPS expectations for Hong Kong Stock Connect constituents were revised up by 0.2%, with notable increases in the steel sector (+2.1%) and consumer services (+2.1%) [3] - Four sectors saw downward revisions in EPS expectations, including non-ferrous metals (-0.7%) and coal (-0.7%) [3] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included comprehensive services (+17.6%), electric equipment and new energy (+10.9%), and steel (+9.6%) [16] - Conversely, the weakest sectors were retail trade (-4.1%) and media (-2.8%) [16]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 increased by 1.7% this week, while the Nasdaq rose by 1.6%[3] - Small-cap value stocks (Russell 2000 Value) outperformed with a gain of 4.6%, compared to small-cap growth (Russell 2000 Growth) at 2.6%[3] Sector Performance - The technology hardware and equipment sector led with a 5.4% increase, followed by banks at 4.2% and durable goods and apparel at 3.9%[3] - Four sectors experienced declines, with the automotive and components sector down by 1.4%[3] Fund Flows - Estimated fund inflow for S&P 500 components was $2.34 billion this week, a significant decrease from $18.17 billion the previous week[4] - The technology hardware and equipment sector saw the highest inflow at $1.4 billion, while healthcare equipment and services experienced an outflow of $2.62 billion[4] Earnings Forecast - The dynamic F12M EPS forecast for S&P 500 components was adjusted upward by 0.2% this week, following a 0.3% increase last week[5] - The semiconductor products and equipment sector had the largest upward revision at 0.5%, while the automotive sector was revised down by 2.1%[5] Economic Risks - Key risks include uncertainties in economic fundamentals, international political situations, U.S. fiscal policy, and Federal Reserve monetary policy[5]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the integration of AI in asset allocation, enhancing the predictive capabilities of stock and bond performance through a dynamic weighting system [2][3] - The AI-driven model has successfully predicted market trends, including the recent performance of value stocks outperforming growth stocks in March and April [3] - Predictions for 2025 indicate that bond assets will maintain relative advantages, while stock market performance is expected to stabilize at the bottom in Q3 and slightly recover in Q4 [3] Asset Allocation Framework - The AI-enabled research system combines five major cycles to predict stock and bond performance, with a current high weighting of 55% on the monetary credit framework [2][3] - The allocation for domestic assets in July shows: 12.64% in equities, 3.58% in dividends, 76.45% in bonds, and 7.33% in gold, with adjustments compared to traditional risk parity models [4] - For overseas markets, the allocation includes: France 15.62%, Germany 14.85%, the US 20.24%, Japan 16.44%, Hong Kong 11.50%, and India 22.35%, with slight adjustments in France, Germany, and Hong Kong [4] Industry Rotation Strategy - The AI-driven industry rotation strategy has significantly improved performance metrics, achieving a 420% increase in the Sharpe ratio and a 41% reduction in maximum drawdown compared to traditional strategies [5] - The latest industry outlook for Q3 suggests overweight positions in machinery, comprehensive sectors, and electronics, while maintaining standard positions in automotive, communication, and construction, and underweighting banking and retail [5]

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月05日 港股通科技 ETF（159262）投资价值分析 优于大市 科技浪潮窗口遇见穿越周期的投资选择 港股科技板块投资正逢 AI 创新的浪潮之巅 在我们的科技周期框架下观察，未来 3-4 年或将是 AI 技术革命的应用落地 和集中变现阶段。以美股的历史经验来看，历史上其他技术革命（包括集成 电路、个人电脑、互联网、移动互联网）的对应阶段下，纳斯达克指数平均 收益率会显著高于其他阶段。我们认为相同的规律也将反映在港股科技板块 上。港股科技板块涵盖了 AI 技术革命的主要参与者，包括互联网、消费电 子、半导体、软件，它们均显著受益于 AI 的发展机遇。 其中，互联网行业在渗透已经比较充分的背景下，AI 能帮助企业发掘流量价 值，并带来细分领域的发展机遇；消费电子受益于 AI 带来的产品换代与形 式转变的同时，正享受国家结构性政策的利好；半导体在 AI 引发算力军备 竞赛与美国技术封锁的背景下，受到技术迭代和国产替代的共振催化；软件 受益于 AI 带来的提质增效，港股的 SaaS 龙头将是软件业的增长引擎。 恒生港股通科技主题指数：高纯度硬科技配置，长线投资优选 恒生港股通科技主题 ...

- The report tracks the performance of Guosen JinGong's index enhancement portfolios and public fund index enhancement products, alongside monitoring the performance of common stock selection factors across different stock selection spaces [12][13][16] - Guosen JinGong's index enhancement portfolios are constructed based on three main components: return prediction, risk control, and portfolio optimization. These portfolios are benchmarked against indices such as CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI A500 [13][15] - The MFE (Maximized Factor Exposure) portfolio is used to test the effectiveness of individual factors under real-world constraints. The optimization model maximizes single-factor exposure while controlling for style, industry, stock weight deviations, and other constraints. The formula for the optimization model is: $\begin{array}{ll}max&f^{T}\ w\\ s.t.&s_{l}\leq X(w-w_{b})\leq s_{h}\\ &h_{l}\leq H(w-w_{b})\leq h_{h}\\ &w_{l}\leq w-w_{b}\leq w_{h}\\ &b_{l}\leq B_{b}w\leq b_{h}\\ &\mathbf{0}\leq w\leq l\\ &\mathbf{1}^{T}\ w=1\end{array}$ where `f` represents factor values, `w` is the stock weight vector, and constraints include style exposure (`X`), industry exposure (`H`), stock weight deviation (`w`), and component stock weight limits (`B_b`) [40][41][42] - The factor library includes over 30 factors categorized into valuation, reversal, growth, profitability, liquidity, corporate governance, and analyst dimensions. Examples include BP (Net Asset/Market Cap), single-quarter EP (Net Profit/Market Cap), and EPTTM (TTM Net Profit/Market Cap) [17][18] - Factor performance varies across different stock selection spaces. For CSI 300, factors like single-quarter EP, EPTTM, and expected EPTTM performed well recently, while factors like three-month volatility and expected net profit QoQ performed poorly [19][20] - For CSI 500, factors such as single-quarter ROE, DELTAROE, and single-quarter EP showed strong performance recently, whereas factors like one-year momentum and three-month reversal underperformed [21][22] - In the CSI 1000 space, factors like standardized unexpected earnings, EPTTM, and single-quarter EP performed well, while factors like non-liquidity impact and three-month institutional coverage lagged [23][24] - For CSI A500, factors such as expected EPTTM, single-quarter ROE, and expected PEG showed strong performance, while factors like one-year momentum and expected net profit QoQ underperformed [25][26] - In the public fund heavy index space, factors like expected PEG, expected EPTTM, and single-quarter EP performed well recently, while factors like one-month reversal and one-month volatility performed poorly [27][28] - Public fund index enhancement products are tracked for their excess returns relative to benchmarks. For CSI 300 products, the highest weekly excess return was 1.02%, and the lowest was -0.37%, with a median of 0.08% [29][33] - CSI 500 products showed a weekly excess return range of 1.87% to -0.44%, with a median of 0.38% [34][35] - CSI 1000 products had a weekly excess return range of 1.06% to -0.43%, with a median of 0.38% [36][37] - CSI A500 products showed a weekly excess return range of 0.73% to -0.19%, with a median of 0.17% [38][39]

- The report discusses the market performance of various indices, including the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, which performed well with a rise of 0.58%[6] - The report highlights the performance of sector indices, noting that the banking, comprehensive finance, media, steel, and pharmaceutical industries performed well, with returns of 1.85%, 1.13%, 0.72%, 0.52%, and 0.41%, respectively[7] - The report provides data on market sentiment, including the number of stocks that hit their daily limit up and down, with 41 stocks hitting the limit up and 13 stocks hitting the limit down at the close of trading[12] - The report includes information on the financing and securities lending balance, which stood at 18,591 billion yuan as of July 3, 2025, with a financing balance of 18,464 billion yuan and a securities lending balance of 127 billion yuan[16] - The report discusses the premium and discount rates of ETFs, noting that the innovative drug ETF Huatai Bairui had the highest premium at 0.92%, while the Kechuang New Materials ETF Huatai Bairui had the highest discount at 0.74%[20] - The report provides data on block trading, noting that the average daily transaction amount over the past six months was 1.2 billion yuan, with the transaction amount on July 3, 2025, being 1.8 billion yuan and the average discount rate over the past six months being 5.75%[23] - The report discusses the annualized discount rates of stock index futures, noting that the annualized discount rates of the main contracts of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures were 3.86%, 5.27%, 15.75%, and 14.40%, respectively, on July 4, 2025[25] - The report provides data on institutional attention and the Dragon and Tiger list, noting that the stocks with the highest net inflows from institutional seats were Shenzhou Cells, Xice Testing, Longyang Electronics, Guangsheng Tang, Nanling Technology, Rejing Biology, Desheng Technology, Yihong New Materials, Xuedilong, and Canning Power[27][30][33] - The report includes data on the net inflows and outflows of stocks from the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, noting that the stocks with the highest net inflows were Beijing New Pharmaceuticals, Hengbao Shares, Bomin Electronics, Longyang Electronics, Guangsheng Tang, and Shenzhou Cells[34]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the "Growth and Stability" portfolio has achieved an absolute return of 24.13% year-to-date, outperforming the mixed equity fund index by 15.92% [2][45] - The "Excellent Fund Performance Enhancement" portfolio has an absolute return of 6.35% year-to-date, underperforming the mixed equity fund index by 1.86% [1][24] - The "Brokerage Golden Stock Performance Enhancement" portfolio has achieved an absolute return of 10.21% year-to-date, outperforming the mixed equity fund index by 2.00% [1][40] Group 2 - The "Super Expected Selection" portfolio has an absolute return of 17.50% year-to-date, outperforming the mixed equity fund index by 9.30% [1][33] - The report indicates that 53% of stocks increased in value this week, with a median stock return of 0.24% [2][49] - The report also notes that 70% of stocks have increased in value year-to-date, with a median stock return of 9.64% [2][49] Group 3 - The "Excellent Fund Performance Enhancement" strategy aims to outperform the median return of actively managed equity funds by utilizing a quantitative approach based on the holdings of top-performing funds [3][17] - The "Super Expected Selection" strategy focuses on selecting stocks that have shown positive earnings surprises, combining fundamental and technical analysis [4][56] - The "Brokerage Golden Stock Performance Enhancement" strategy is designed to optimize stock selection from a pool of stocks recommended by brokerage firms, aiming to outperform the mixed equity fund index [5][61] Group 4 - The "Growth and Stability" strategy employs a two-dimensional evaluation system for growth stocks, prioritizing those with upcoming earnings announcements to capture potential excess returns [6][66] - The report emphasizes that the "Growth and Stability" portfolio has achieved a year-to-date return of 24.13%, significantly outperforming the mixed equity fund index [2][42] - The "Super Expected Selection" portfolio has consistently ranked in the top 30% of actively managed equity funds since its inception [57][59]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Guosen Securities Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on a dual-layer selection process combining fundamental and technical analysis to identify stocks with both fundamental support and technical resonance[15][17] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Analyst Recommendation Pool**: Constructed using analyst events such as upward earnings revisions, first-time coverage, and research report titles exceeding expectations[17] 2. **Selection Criteria**: - Fundamental Dimension: Stocks with strong fundamental support - Technical Dimension: Stocks showing technical resonance 3. **Backtesting Period**: From January 1, 2010, to June 30, 2025, with full exposure and transaction costs considered[17] **Formula**: Not explicitly provided in the report **Model Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong annualized returns and significant excess returns relative to the Hang Seng Index[17] - **Model Name**: Stable New High Stock Screening **Model Construction Idea**: Inspired by momentum and trend-following strategies, focusing on stocks that recently hit 250-day highs with stable price paths[22][24] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **250-Day New High Distance Calculation**: $ 250\ Day\ New\ High\ Distance = 1 - \frac{Close_{latest}}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ - **Close_latest**: Latest closing price - **ts_max(Close, 250)**: Maximum closing price in the past 250 trading days[24] 2. **Screening Criteria**: - Analyst Attention: At least 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 6 months - Relative Strength: Top 20% in 250-day returns within the sample pool - Price Stability: Comprehensive scoring based on price path smoothness and trend continuation metrics[25] **Model Evaluation**: Effective in identifying stocks with stable upward trends, particularly in sectors like healthcare and finance[24][25] --- Model Backtesting Results - **Guosen Securities Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio**: - **Annualized Return**: 19.11% - **Excess Return Relative to Hang Seng Index**: 18.48% - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 1.22 - **Tracking Error**: 14.55% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 23.73%[21][17][19] - **Stable New High Stock Screening**: - **Sector Distribution**: - Healthcare: 15 stocks - Finance: 15 stocks - Technology: 7 stocks - Cyclical: 5 stocks - Consumer: 4 stocks[24][25] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: 250-Day New High Distance **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the proximity of the latest closing price to the 250-day high, indicating momentum strength[24] **Factor Construction Process**: $ 250\ Day\ New\ High\ Distance = 1 - \frac{Close_{latest}}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ - **Close_latest**: Latest closing price - **ts_max(Close, 250)**: Maximum closing price in the past 250 trading days[24] **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong predictive power for identifying stocks with upward momentum[24] --- Factor Backtesting Results - **250-Day New High Distance**: - **Sector Distribution**: - Healthcare: 15 stocks - Finance: 15 stocks - Technology: 7 stocks - Cyclical: 5 stocks - Consumer: 4 stocks[24][25]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth in the semiconductor ultra-pure target material sector, with a second growth curve anticipated from precision components [4][38]. - Revenue for 2025-2027 is projected to grow by 30.3%, 27.14%, and 28.0%, reaching 46.99 billion, 59.89 billion, and 76.67 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 5.21 billion, 6.87 billion, and 9.04 billion yuan [30][36]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.53%, and a net profit of 157 million yuan, up 163.58% year-on-year [1]. - For 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.605 billion yuan, a 38.57% increase, and a net profit of 401 million yuan, reflecting a 56.79% increase [2]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 28.17%, with the ultra-pure target material segment achieving a gross margin of 31.35% [2][23]. Business Segments - The ultra-pure target material business generated sales of 2.333 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 64.73% of total revenue, benefiting from product structure optimization and increased use of domestic raw materials [2][25]. - The precision components segment, covering key semiconductor processes, generated 887 million yuan in sales, representing 24.60% of total revenue [2][25]. Market Position - The company has established itself as a leading supplier of ultra-pure metal sputtering targets in China, serving major global semiconductor manufacturers such as TSMC and SMIC [3][38]. - The company has successfully expanded its product line in precision components, producing over 40,000 types of parts used in various semiconductor processes [3][10]. Valuation - The report estimates the company's reasonable valuation range at 20.84 billion to 22.92 billion yuan, corresponding to a share price of 78.64 to 84.49 yuan [34][36]. - The current stock price is 73.60 yuan, indicating a premium of 6.9% to 17.5% relative to the estimated valuation [6][34].

见微知著：利用创新高个股进行市场监测：截至 2025 年 7 月 4 日，共 892 只股票在过去 20 个交易日间创出 250 日新高。其中创新高个股数量最多的 是基础化工、医药、机械行业，创新高个股数量占比最高的是银行、综合金 融、国防军工行业。按照板块分布来看，本周制造、周期板块创新高股票数 量最多；按照指数分布来看，中证 2000、中证 1000、中证 500、沪深 300、 创业板指、科创 50 指数中创新高个股数量占指数成份股个数比例分别为： 16.10%、12.40%、11.20%、13.00%、7.00%、6.00%。 平稳创新高股票跟踪：我们根据分析师关注度、股价相对强弱、趋势延续性、 股价路径平稳性、创新高持续性等角度，本周从全市场创新高股票中筛选出 了包含胜宏科技、京北方、巨人网络等 33 只平稳创新高的股票。按照板块 来看，创新高股票数量最多的是科技、制造板块，分别有 9、8 只入选。其 中，科技板块中创新高最多的是电子行业；制造板块中创新高最多的是机械 行业。 风险提示：市场环境变动风险，模型失效风险，本报告基于历史客观数据统 计，不构成任何投资建议，历史股价表现不代表未来股价表现。 ...