- The report discusses the performance of various broad-based indices in the A-share market, highlighting that the Small and Medium Enterprise Board Index, CSI 300, and ChiNext Index had the highest returns last week, with returns of 1.83%, 1.54%, and 1.50%, respectively[1][13] - The report also notes that the Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 Index, CSI 1000, and CSI 500 indices had lower returns, with returns of -0.35%, 0.56%, and 0.81%, respectively[1][13] - In terms of trading volume, the report mentions that the trading volume of major broad-based indices decreased last week, with the indices positioned between the 45%-70% historical percentile over the past 52 weeks[1][14] - The report provides a detailed analysis of the performance of various industry sectors, noting that the steel, banking, and building materials sectors had the highest returns last week, with returns of 5.27%, 3.78%, and 3.63%, respectively[1][19] - Conversely, the comprehensive financial, computer, and comprehensive sectors had the lowest returns, with returns of -4.45%, -0.86%, and -0.72%, respectively[1][19] - The report highlights the performance of open-ended public funds, stating that active equity, flexible allocation, and balanced hybrid funds had returns of 1.16%, 0.99%, and 0.99%, respectively, last week[1][31] - It also mentions that alternative funds had the best performance year-to-date, with a median return of 11.34%, while active equity, flexible allocation, and balanced hybrid funds had median returns of 6.02%, 3.47%, and 2.06%, respectively[1][32] - The report discusses the performance of quantitative public funds, noting that the median excess return of index-enhanced funds was 0.17% last week, while the median return of quantitative hedge funds was 0.33%[1][34] - Year-to-date, the median excess return of index-enhanced funds was 2.94%, and the median return of quantitative hedge funds was 0.95%[1][34] - The report provides a detailed breakdown of the performance of various types of funds, including active equity, flexible allocation, balanced hybrid, short-term pure bond, medium- to long-term pure bond, mixed bond primary, mixed bond secondary, money market, and alternative funds[1][33] - The report includes a list of the top-performing funds in various categories, such as the top three weekly performers in the active equity category, which were Zhonghang Youxuan Linghang A (15.84%), Yongying Yiyao Jiankang A (15.52%), and Hongtu Chuangxin Yiliao Baojian (13.39%)[1][59] - The report also lists the top ten weekly performers in the index-enhanced fund category, with the top performer being Anxin Zhongzheng 500 Index Enhanced A (1.87%)[1][60] - Additionally, the report lists the top ten weekly performers in the quantitative hedge fund category, with the top performer being Zhongyou Juedui Shouyi Celue (1.16%)[1][61] - The report provides a summary of the newly established funds last week, noting that a total of 23 new funds were established, with a combined issuance scale of 53.28 billion yuan[1][46] - The report also mentions that 36 new funds entered the issuance stage last week, with the majority being passive index funds and equity hybrid funds[1][51]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - After crossing the quarter - end, the funding situation returned to ease, overnight interest rates continued to decline to 1.3%, the central bank did not initiate treasury bond transactions in June, and the PMI continued to rise slightly. The bond market resumed its upward trend, with ultra - long bonds rising slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week but remained quite active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened, and the variety spread narrowed. Considering the economic data, although the economy showed resilience in May, there are still downward pressures. After the half - year mark, the funding rate declined again, and the probability of the bond market rising is greater. However, the term spread of 30 - year treasury bonds and the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds are still low, with limited spread protection [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - After the quarter - end, the funding became looser, overnight rates dropped to 1.3%, the central bank did not trade treasury bonds in June, PMI rose slightly, the bond market went up, and ultra - long bonds had a small increase. Trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly but was still active. The term spread widened, and the variety spread narrowed [1][9] Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of July 4, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 21BP, at a historically low level. In May, the estimated GDP growth was about 5.0% year - on - year, down 0.1% from April but still above the annual target. With CPI at - 0.1% and PPI at - 3.1% in May, deflation risks remain. Exports declined rapidly in May, and domestic housing prices turned negative month - on - month. After the half - year mark, the funding rate fell again, and the bond market is more likely to rise. However, the term spread of 30 - year treasury bonds is low, with limited protection [2][10] - **20 - year CDB Bonds**: As of July 4, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 3BP, at a historically extremely low level. Similar to the 30 - year treasury bonds, considering the economic situation in May and the decline in the funding rate after the half - year mark, the bond market is likely to rise. But the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is low, with limited protection [3][11] Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds exceeded 22.2 trillion. As of June 30, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 222,528 billion, accounting for 14.5% of all bonds. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 26.3%, local government bonds 67.5%, etc. By remaining maturity, the 25 - 35 - year variety accounted for the highest proportion at 40.4% [12] Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (June 30 - July 4, 2025), ultra - long bond issuance decreased significantly, with a total of 359 billion yuan issued. By variety, local government bonds accounted for 344 billion, and mid - term notes 15 billion. By term, 15 - year bonds accounted for 139 billion, 20 - year for 70 billion, and 30 - year for 151 billion [17] This Week's Scheduled Issuance - This week's announced ultra - long bond issuance plan totals 768 billion. By variety, ultra - long local government bonds account for 748 billion, and mid - term notes 20 billion [22] Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bond trading was quite active, with a turnover of 11,010 billion, accounting for 13.1% of all bonds. Trading activity decreased slightly compared to the previous week. Ultra - long treasury bond turnover decreased by 2,214 billion, and its proportion decreased by 1.5%; ultra - long local bond turnover decreased by 688 billion, and its proportion decreased by 14.1%; ultra - long policy - bank bond turnover increased by 4 billion, and its proportion increased by 0.1%; ultra - long government - agency bond turnover increased by 78 billion, and its proportion increased by 37.2% [24] Yield - After the quarter - end, the funding situation eased, overnight rates dropped to 1.3%, the central bank did not trade treasury bonds in June, PMI rose slightly, the bond market went up, and ultra - long bonds had a small increase. Yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year treasury bonds changed by 0BP, 0BP, 0BP, and - 3BP respectively to 1.79%, 1.89%, 1.85%, and 1.94%. Yields of representative individual bonds also changed, such as the 30 - year treasury bond active bond 24 special treasury bond 06 yield changing by - 2BP to 1.89% [38][39] Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds widened but remained at a low absolute level. The spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 21BP, up 1BP from the previous week, at the 5% percentile since 2010 [45] - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed and was at a low absolute level. The spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and treasury bonds was 3BP, and between 20 - year railway bonds and treasury bonds was 7BP, down 1BP and 2BP respectively from the previous week, at the 6% percentile since 2010 [46] 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 closed at 121.20 yuan, an increase of 0.26%. The total trading volume was 408,900 lots (- 8,046 lots), and the open interest was 151,000 lots (10,690 lots). The trading volume decreased slightly, and the open interest increased slightly compared to the previous week [51]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry [5] Core Insights - The global computing infrastructure remains highly prosperous, with a continued positive outlook on computing directions. The global server market is expected to reach $366 billion in 2025, growing by 44.6% year-on-year. The market for GPU-equipped servers is projected to grow by 46.7%, nearly accounting for half of the overall market [12][19][22] - The deployment of NVIDIA's GB300 AI systems has begun, indicating sustained growth in the global AI landscape. CoreWeave and Dell Technologies announced the launch of the first batch of GB300 NVL72 AI systems, which are equipped with advanced GPUs and CPUs to meet increasing AI computing demands [23][24] - China Mobile's procurement of AI servers worth 3.2 billion yuan marks a significant acceleration in AI inference computing infrastructure development, highlighting the urgency for operators to enhance AI application capabilities [35][40] Summary by Sections Industry News Tracking - The global computing infrastructure is expected to maintain high prosperity, with a focus on computing directions. The global server market is projected to reach $366 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 44.6% [12][19] - The Chinese GenAI IaaS market is anticipated to grow by 165% year-on-year in the second half of 2024, reaching 8.74 billion yuan, marking a significant share in the overall AI IaaS market [16][22] Market Performance Review - The communication index fell by 0.10% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 1.54%, resulting in a relative return of -1.64%, ranking 26th among primary industries [3][48] Investment Recommendations - Focus on AI computing infrastructure across various segments, particularly in optical devices and copper connection industries, which are expected to benefit from the global AI development [4][55] - Long-term investment in the three major telecom operators is recommended due to their stable operations and increasing dividend ratios, with a cumulative revenue of 748.8 billion yuan in the first five months of the year, reflecting a 1.4% year-on-year growth [4][55]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electric equipment and renewable energy industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1]. Core Insights - The "Inflation Reduction Act" in the U.S. has strengthened policies for grid and energy storage, extending the tax credit timeline for energy storage from 2032 to 2036, which may lead to increased shipment volumes from the Chinese supply chain within the year [1]. - The Guangdong offshore wind power project at Sanshan Island is progressing, with the engineering survey design candidate announcement for the China Resources Yangjiang Sanshan Island offshore wind farm project [1]. Summary by Sections Energy Storage and Grid - The "Inflation Reduction Act" signed by President Trump on July 4th includes a $1 billion allocation for grid reliability construction, energy storage for power generation facilities, and transmission infrastructure upgrades, focusing on long-duration energy storage technology demonstration projects and microgrid storage systems in remote areas [3]. - The tax credit for energy storage has been extended to 2036, with a phased reduction policy. Projects starting construction by the end of 2033 will receive a 100% credit, reducing to 75% in 2034, 50% in 2035, and ceasing after 2036, providing a longer policy support window [3]. Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - The act stipulates that energy storage projects starting construction after December 31, 2025, involving certain foreign entities will not qualify for investment tax credits (ITC) and production tax credits (PTC). This includes entities from China and specific battery manufacturers [4]. - There may be a short-term increase in shipment volumes from Chinese energy storage companies before the end of 2025 due to the new regulations [4]. Market Projections - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects a 78% increase in large-scale energy storage installations in the U.S. by 2025, with an expected total of 18.55 GW for the year [5]. Investment Recommendations - For electric equipment, it is recommended to focus on companies with domestic production capabilities in the U.S. that can participate in grid reliability construction, including Jinpan Technology and Igor [2][10]. - For offshore wind power, companies such as Dongfang Electric, Dongfang Cable, and Times New Material are suggested for investment [2][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][29] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the competitive landscape of China's non-performing asset management industry, which consists of "5 national AMCs + 59 provincial AMCs + non-licensed institutions" [2][8] - The overall diluted ROE for the AMC industry in 2024 is projected to be 3.4%, indicating general profitability issues [2][9] - The report notes that while provincial AMCs have shown stable growth, the net profit for these institutions has declined, reflecting a trend of "increment without profit" [16] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The non-performing asset management industry in China has evolved over two decades, establishing a competitive structure with national and provincial AMCs [2][10] - The report discusses the different types of non-performing asset management businesses, including acquisition and disposal, restructuring, and debt-to-equity swaps [3][5] Financial Performance - The financial overview indicates that the largest four AMCs have total assets exceeding 500 billion, while provincial AMCs generally have total assets under 100 billion [9] - The report provides detailed financial data for major AMCs, showing that most have a diluted ROE below 10% [11][9] Market Trends - The report identifies a trend where provincial AMCs are experiencing stable asset growth at approximately 5% annually, while the four major AMCs are facing asset contraction [16] - The profitability of provincial AMCs is declining, with a noted decrease in ROE over the years [16][21] Specific Company Analysis - Hebei Asset Management Co., Ltd. is highlighted as the only provincial AMC in Hebei, with a market share of 24.4% in the province [24] - The financial data for Hebei Asset shows total assets increasing from 67.9 billion in 2022 to 75.6 billion in 2024, with a net profit recovery in 2024 [26]

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月06日 ETF 周报 首批 10 只科创债 ETF 将于下周正式发行 ETF 业绩表现 上周（2025 年 06 月 30 日至 2025 年 07 月 04 日，下同）股票型 ETF 周度收益率中位数为 1.36%。宽基 ETF 中，沪深 300ETF 涨跌幅中位 数为 1.64%，收益最高。按板块划分，消费 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 1.66%， 收益最高。按主题进行分类，光伏 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 4.41%，收益最 高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净赎回 223.96 亿元，总体规模增加 130.11 亿元。在宽 基 ETF 中，上周科创板 ETF 净申购最多，为 6.10 亿元；按板块来看， 科技 ETF 净申购最多，为 47.96 亿元；按热点主题来看，芯片 ETF 净 申购最多，为 29.93 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中，创业板类 ETF 的估值分位数相对较低；按板块来看， 消费 ETF 的估值分位数相对温和；按照细分主题来看，酒、光伏 ETF 的估值分位数相对较低。 ETF 融资融券情况 上周一至周四股票型 ETF ...

Global Market Overview - The global equity markets showed mixed performance with US stocks generally rising while Japanese stocks declined. The Eurozone exhibited varied results, and Hong Kong stocks faced overall pressure, although the Hang Seng Mid-cap index rose by 1.72% [2][8] - Valuation changes were moderate, with the German DAX index declining by 1.02% but experiencing a valuation expansion of 1.52x, indicating significant earnings downgrades. Valuation percentiles for various indices remain at historical highs, with the PE ratio reaching 100% [2][8] A-share Market Analysis - The A-share core broad indices collectively rose with moderate valuation expansion. Specifically, the CSI 100 and SSE 50 led with increases of 1.48% and 1.21%, respectively. Value stocks performed notably well, with the National Value, Large-cap Value, and Mid-cap Value indices all rising over 1.7% [2][26] - As of July 4, the PE, PB, and PS ratios of major A-share indices were generally positioned within the 90%-100% percentile range for the past year, with PCF ratios at 90%-92%. The overall valuation levels for large-cap growth stocks were superior, while the valuation attractiveness of National Value and Large-cap Value was relatively low [27][26] Industry Performance - Most primary industries experienced gains, with steel leading significantly with over 5% increase. Other sectors such as construction materials, banking, and pharmaceuticals also saw gains exceeding 3.6%. Valuations mostly expanded moderately, aligning with stock price movements, with PE expansions exceeding 1x in sectors like steel, construction materials, defense, pharmaceuticals, media, and comprehensive industries [50][49] - The essential consumer sector showed slightly better valuation attractiveness. The banking sector's valuations are at historical highs, with PE, PB, and PS ratios at 100% in both 1-year and 3-year dimensions. In contrast, the downstream essential consumer sectors, represented by food and beverage, and agriculture, exhibited significant valuation recovery potential [2][50] Emerging Industries - Emerging industries displayed mixed performance, with biotechnology sectors performing exceptionally well, including innovative drugs and biotechnology rising by 5.65% and 4.75%, respectively. The AI and integrated circuit sectors faced declines of -1.68% and -1.62% [2][50] - Valuations in emerging industries showed asymmetric changes, with moderate contractions and significant expansions. Notably, the PE ratios for naval equipment, new energy, biotechnology, fund testing, and innovative drugs all expanded by over 1x [2][50]

2025年07月06日 证券研究报告 | 长沙银行（601577.SH） 估值洼地+高增长潜力 公司研究 · 公司快评 银行业 · 城商行 投资评级：优于大市（维持） | 证券分析师：田维韦 | 证券分析师：王剑 | | --- | --- | | 021-60875161 | 021-60875165 | | tianweiwei@guosen.com.cn | wangjian@guosen.com.cn | | S0980520030002 | S0980518070002 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 Ø 公司约0.6xPB估值提供了足够的安全边际，目前低估值反映的市场对其资产质量的担忧可能过度。 • 一是，公司零售贷款占比处在上市城商行较高水平，零售不良压力较大是现实困境，但市场担忧可能过度。零售贷款中消费贷和个人经营贷不良暴露延续是行业共性，公司 积极应对，加大零售不良确认处置，同时积极调整零售信贷投放，零售存量不良出清只是时间问题。市场对于公司零售信贷不良的过度担忧来源于近年来公司积极开拓县域 市场，认为客群资质下沉后不 ...

ESG热点周聚焦（7月第1期） 核聚变商用迈入新阶段 策略研究 · 策略专题 证券分析师：王开 证券分析师：陈凯畅 021-60933132 021-60375429 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn chenkaichang@guosen.com.cn S0980521030001 S0980523090002 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 2025年7月6日 证券研究报告 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 ◼ 海外ESG热点事件：全球ESG发展下大量的机构和企业通过绿色债券、融资、可持续发展业务等方式共同助力能源结构转型应对气候变化，多项政策和 法律进入修改、意见征询阶段。在绿色金融方面，拉丁美洲和加勒比开发银行批准为10个国家的16项可持续发展业务提供52亿美元资金；欧盟和欧洲 投资银行推出50亿欧元灵活担保，旨在促进清洁能源和绿色基础设施项目；瑞银为专注于可持续发展目标的混合金融基金筹集1亿美元。在碳中和方 面，欧盟委员会提出税收优惠措施以加速清洁工业转型；摩根大通Kinexys在碳市场试点区块链，开发基于区块链的应用程序代币化全球碳信用；欧 洲首 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月06日 宏观经济宏观周报 高频指标逆季节性上升 主要结论：高频指标逆季节性上升。 风险提示：海外市场动荡，存在不确定性。 经济增长方面，本周(7 月 4 日所在周）国信高频宏观扩散指数 A 由负转正， 指数 B 有所回升。从分项来看，本周投资领域景气有所回升，消费、房地产 领域景气基本保持不变，本周投资表现较优。从季节性比较来看，本周指数 B 标准化后逆季节性上升 0.14，表现优于历史平均水平，指向国内经济增长 动能有所改善。 核心观点 经济研究·宏观周报 S0980516060001 S0980524090003 证券分析师：李智能 证券分析师：田地 0755-22940456 0755-81982035 lizn@guosen.com.cn tiandi2@guosen.com.cn 证券分析师：董德志 021-60933158 dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980513100001 基于国信高频宏观扩散指数对资产价格进行预测，显示当前国内利率偏低， 上证综合指数偏高，从均值回归的角度看，预计下周（2025 年 7 月 11 日所 在周）十年期国债利率将 ...