Group 1: Retail Industry Insights - The rise of new consumption is fundamentally driven by a significant change in consumer concepts under different economic and social backgrounds, with per capita GDP in China reaching 84,000 yuan in 2023, establishing a buyer's market [5][6] - Recent years have seen consumer budgets constrained by rigid expenditures and wealth effects, while the educational attainment of the post-95 and post-00 generations has increased, with a CAGR of 10.5% in the number of bachelor's degree graduates from 1998 to 2023 [5][6] - The ongoing urbanization and population migration trends have restructured consumption scenarios, shifting the focus from rapid population and wealth growth to product innovation and emotional consumption [5][6] Group 2: Consumer Behavior Changes - Product consumption is evolving from "survival-type" to "quality + emotional-type," with a notable trend towards domestic brand replacement and functional differentiation in the market [6][7] - Marketing strategies have transitioned from mass media advertising to content-driven e-commerce, enhancing advertising efficiency through a progression from brand advertising to performance advertising [6][7] - The channel dynamics have shifted towards online penetration, with a focus on consumer value rather than supplier value, emphasizing the importance of integrating public and private domains [6][7] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The investment in new consumption is not a fleeting trend; companies that establish strong brand recognition through product innovation are expected to have solid business barriers and sustainable growth [7] - Key sectors for investment include beauty and personal care, jewelry, and IP-driven products, with specific recommendations for companies such as Mao Ge Ping, Shanghai Jahwa, and Pop Mart [7] - The report emphasizes the need to assess the sustainability of explosive growth in companies within these sectors [7] Group 4: Mechanical Industry Developments - The mechanical industry is witnessing significant advancements, highlighted by events such as the International Humanoid Robot Exhibition in Hangzhou and investments in dexterous robotic hands by Ant Group [8][9] - Key developments include the introduction of various robotics applications and the growth of AI infrastructure, with a notable increase in 3D printing equipment production by 40% year-on-year [8][9] Group 5: Insurance Sector Analysis - The insurance sector is experiencing a shift towards lower guaranteed returns in products, with traditional life insurance's market share increasing to 56% by the end of 2024 [11][12] - Regulatory guidance is pushing down the preset interest rates for insurance products, with expected reductions in 2024 to 2.0% for ordinary products and 1.75% for dividend insurance [12][13] - The focus on increasing equity investments and enhancing the stability of returns through diversified asset allocation is becoming crucial for insurance companies [13][14]

- The report introduces a method for calculating index dividend points, which is crucial for estimating the premium or discount of stock index futures contracts. The formula for dividend points is: $$ Dividend\ Points = \frac{\sum_{n=1}^{N} \text{Dividend Amount of Component Stock}}{\text{Total Market Value of Component Stocks}} \times \text{Component Stock Weight} \times \text{Index Closing Price} $$ This calculation considers component stock weights, dividend amounts, and index closing prices[37][38][40] - Component stock weights are adjusted dynamically to ensure accuracy. The formula for weight adjustment is: $$ W_{n,t} = \frac{w_{i0} \times (1 + r_{n})}{\sum_{i=1}^{N} w_{i0} \times (1 + r_{n})} $$ Here, \( w_{i0} \) represents the weight at the last disclosed date, and \( r_{n} \) is the non-adjusted price change of the stock[41][42] - Dividend amounts are estimated using historical net profit distributions and dividend payout ratios. The formula is: $$ Dividend\ Amount = Net\ Profit \times Dividend\ Payout\ Ratio $$ Net profit is predicted based on historical stability or prior-year data, while dividend payout ratios are derived from historical averages[43][46][47] - The report uses a linear extrapolation method to predict ex-dividend dates based on historical intervals between announcement and ex-dividend dates. If historical data is unavailable or unreliable, default dates are applied[47][52][51] - The accuracy of the dividend point estimation model is validated by comparing predicted dividend points with actual values for major indices like SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500. The model shows high accuracy, with errors generally within 5 points for SSE 50 and CSI 300, and within 10 points for CSI 500[53][57][61] - The report tracks the premium and discount levels of stock index futures contracts, adjusted for dividend impacts. For example, as of June 25, 2025, the annualized premium for IH futures was 7.56%, while the annualized discount for IM futures was -6.77%[4][13][12] - Historical percentile levels of futures contracts are analyzed. For instance, IH futures are at the 97th percentile, IF futures at the 83rd percentile, IC futures at the 53rd percentile, and IM futures at the 34th percentile[26][30][35] - The report highlights the relationship between index coverage and discount depth, noting that smaller market cap indices tend to have deeper discounts[24][26][35] - The dividend progress of major indices is summarized, showing the number of companies at different stages (proposal, decision, implementation, completed, or no dividend). For example, in the CSI 1000 index, 529 companies have completed dividends, while 218 companies will not pay dividends[1][14][36] - The report provides sectoral dividend yield statistics, identifying coal, banking, and steel as the top three sectors with the highest median dividend yields[2][15][16] - The realized and remaining dividend yields for major indices are reported. For example, the SSE 50 index has a realized yield of 0.81% and a remaining yield of 1.45%[3][17][16] - The report includes time-series data on the premium and discount levels of major futures contracts from 2020 to 2025, offering insights into market sentiment and risk preferences[18][21][26]

资产端：提高权益投资规模，OCI 扩容增强收益稳定性。长端利率维持低位 叠加 IFRS9 会计准则，险企面临固收资产收益下行及权益资产波动等压力。 此外，优质非标投资下占比降显著，进一步加大险企资产端收益压力。在此 背景下，权益投资结构性调整显著。险资持续聚焦高股息行业，加大 OCI 权 益资产配置力度，在平滑投资波动的同时把握中长期稳定现金流。此外，行 业通过长期投资改革试点探索"长钱长投"模式以平滑波动。近年来保险资 金股票配置占比有所提升。基于过去三年险资配置行为，我们分别测算了人 身险行业及财险行业 2025 年至 2027 年的综合投资收益率。我们预计人身险 未来三年综合投资收益率 4.06%、3.93%、3.92%，财险为 4.14%、3.98%、3.96%。 风险提示：保费收入不及预期；资本市场延续震荡；长端利率下行等。 随着资管新规执行深入，预定利率相对较高的储蓄型保险吸引大量"存款搬 家"资金涌入，推高相应险种的保费规模和市场占有率。截至 2024 年末， 传统寿险占行业总保费收入的比例为 56%，较 2019 年提升三个百分点。不同 于侧重疾病保障功能的健康险，大多储蓄型保险具备更强的理财 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月25日 资产端：提高权益投资规模，OCI 扩容增强收益稳定性。长端利率维持低位 叠加 IFRS9 会计准则，险企面临固收资产收益下行及权益资产波动等压力。 此外，优质非标投资下占比降显著，进一步加大险企资产端收益压力。在此 背景下，权益投资结构性调整显著。险资持续聚焦高股息行业，加大 OCI 权 益资产配置力度，在平滑投资波动的同时把握中长期稳定现金流。此外，行 业通过长期投资改革试点探索"长钱长投"模式以平滑波动。近年来保险资 金股票配置占比有所提升。基于过去三年险资配置行为，我们分别测算了人 身险行业及财险行业 2025 年至 2027 年的综合投资收益率。我们预计人身险 未来三年综合投资收益率 4.06%、3.93%、3.92%，财险为 4.14%、3.98%、3.96%。 风险提示：保费收入不及预期；资本市场延续震荡；长端利率下行等。 投资建议：综合以上分析，我们认为随着负债端成本较快下行和资产端高分 红资产稳定投资收益，上市险企利差风险持续收窄，为基本面持续改善带来 持续催化。进入三季度，预计预定利率将再次下调，短期"炒停售"或将激 活短期保费增量，中长期利好负债成 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the mechanical equipment industry [4][30]. Core Views - The humanoid robot sector is highlighted for its growth potential, with a focus on key suppliers and companies with strong market positions. Specific components such as joint modules, dexterous hands, and reducers are identified as critical areas for investment [2][3]. - AI infrastructure is expected to see continued capital expenditure growth driven by demand for data centers, benefiting companies involved in gas turbines and chillers [2]. - The low-altitude economy is progressing rapidly, with a national low-altitude traffic project initiated to standardize air traffic management [3]. - The smart welding robot market is projected to grow significantly, particularly in the steel structure industry, with a market potential nearing 100 billion [3]. - 3D printing technology is gaining traction in various sectors, including aerospace and consumer electronics, due to its advantages in creating complex structures and reducing development cycles [3]. - X-ray detection equipment is experiencing rapid growth driven by demand in healthcare and industrial sectors, with a focus on domestic production of core components [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Recent developments include the introduction of various humanoid robots and AI infrastructure projects, such as the opening of a new data center by Alibaba Cloud in South Korea [1][19]. - The report notes significant growth in 3D printing equipment production, with a year-on-year increase of 40% in May [20]. Government News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission supports the application of the fifth set of listing standards for companies in cutting-edge technology sectors, including AI and low-altitude economy [21]. Company Developments - Notable partnerships and investments include Demar Technology's strategic agreement with Zhiyuan Robotics and Qinan Co., Ltd.'s investment in Moxian Technology [23][24]. - Midea's humanoid robot has successfully begun operations in its factories, marking a significant step in automation [16]. - The launch of the Star Motion Q5 intelligent robot showcases advancements in flexible joint technology and AI control systems [18]. Key Company Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Several companies are rated as "Outperform the Market," including Green's Harmonics, Huichuan Technology, and Zhaowei Electric, with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2024 and 2025 [7][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The rise of new consumption is fundamentally driven by a significant change in consumer concepts shaped by the economic and social context of different generations, particularly from the 70s to the 00s [4][5] - The current consumer market is characterized by a shift from "survival-type" products to "quality + emotional-type" products, with a focus on emotional value and quality-price ratio [4][10] - Investment logic in new consumption should focus on sustainable growth capabilities rather than short-term speculative opportunities, emphasizing product innovation and strong brand recognition [4] Summary by Sections 1. Economic and Demographic Background of Consumption Changes - The per capita GDP in China has grown from over 10,000 RMB in 1995 to 84,000 RMB in 2023, establishing a buyer's market [4][15] - Consumer spending is increasingly constrained by rigid expenditures on housing, healthcare, and education, alongside wealth effects [4][19] - The educational attainment of the 95/00 generation has significantly increased, with a CAGR of 10.5% in the number of undergraduate graduates from 1998 to 2023 [4][23] - Urbanization rates have remained high, influencing consumption patterns and driving the reconstruction of consumption scenarios [4][24] 2. Product Evolution - The transition in consumer products reflects a shift towards quality and emotional engagement, with head brands focusing on domestic alternatives and functional trends [4][10] - The market has seen a rise in low-cost, emotionally valuable products, such as beauty care, jewelry, and IP toys, which are now key segments [4][10] 3. Marketing Evolution - Marketing strategies have evolved from traditional brand advertising to performance-driven advertising, with a focus on maximizing advertising efficiency [4][10] - The rise of digital platforms has transformed marketing channels, emphasizing the importance of consumer engagement and conversion rates [4][10] 4. Channel Evolution - The shift towards online channels has significantly increased penetration rates across various categories, with a focus on consumer value rather than supplier value [4][10] - The integration of public and private domains has become crucial for navigating the challenges posed by traditional retail models [4][10]

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the non-bank financial sector in the second half of 2025, driven by a shift in deposit behavior and a decline in deposit rates, which encourages investment in risk assets [7] - The insurance industry is undergoing a transformation with a focus on liability cost reduction and improved channel quality, leading to significant growth in new business value (NBV) for major insurers [8] - The securities industry is experiencing a recovery in cross-border investment banking and derivative business, presenting new growth opportunities for leading brokerage firms [9] - The internet sector is witnessing the rise of stablecoins, with Circle's recent IPO marking a significant milestone in the market, which is expected to continue expanding [11][12] Non-Bank Financial Sector - The report discusses the concept of "deposit migration" as a catalyst for increased investment in risk assets, with total household deposits reaching 160 trillion yuan, of which nearly 75% are time deposits [7] - Financial institutions are responding to the demand for higher returns by developing diverse investment products, leading to increased competition and innovation in the market [7] Insurance Industry - The insurance sector is seeing a shift towards more flexible product structures, with a notable increase in the share of participating insurance products [8] - Major insurers like China Life and Ping An are reporting substantial growth in NBV, with increases of 4.8% and 34.9% respectively [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of the bancassurance channel as a new growth driver, with significant premium growth reported by companies like Taiping Life [8] Securities Industry - The report notes an uptick in trading activity in the capital markets, with brokerage firms benefiting from increased margin financing and trading volumes [9] - The recovery of overseas investment banking activities, particularly in Hong Kong IPOs, is highlighted as a key growth area for securities firms [9] - The emergence of over-the-counter derivatives and structured products is seen as a potential growth avenue for brokerage firms [9] Internet Sector - The stablecoin market has surpassed $250 billion, with USDT and USDC dominating the space, holding 84% of the market share [11] - Circle's IPO has significantly boosted its market presence, with a stock price increase of over 675% shortly after listing [11] - The report discusses the strategic partnership between Circle and Coinbase, which is expected to enhance the adoption and utility of USDC [12] Electronic Industry - The report indicates strong investment in AI computing power, with a recommendation for ASICs and storage modules as key areas of focus [14] - The semiconductor industry is witnessing significant expansions, with Texas Instruments announcing over $60 billion in investments to meet future demand [15] - The report highlights the ongoing price recovery in the storage market, with NAND Flash prices expected to rise by 3-8% in Q2 2025 [17] Agricultural Sector - The report emphasizes the potential for a cyclical recovery in the beef market, with expectations for improved pricing in 2025 [24] - It notes the stable supply of poultry and the potential for price increases in the corn market due to tightening supply-demand dynamics [23][24] - The report suggests a focus on undervalued leaders in the livestock sector, particularly in beef and dairy [24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [1][5][4]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the beef cycle and recommends investments in leading companies in the livestock sector, particularly in beef and raw milk, which are expected to experience a positive resonance in 2025 [3][4]. - The pet industry is highlighted as a growth sector benefiting from demographic changes, while the feed sector, particularly Haida Group, is expected to gain from the recovery in aquaculture [3][4]. - The report notes that the pig industry shows insufficient expansion willingness, but the overall market conditions are expected to remain stable through 2025, with a focus on undervalued leading companies [3][4]. - Poultry production is expected to maintain low volatility, with white chicken consumption gradually increasing and yellow chicken likely to benefit from improved domestic demand [3][4]. Summary by Sections Livestock - **Pork**: The average price of live pigs is 14.16 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 1.22%. The price of 7kg piglets is approximately 446 CNY/head, down 4.98% week-on-week [1][13]. - **Beef**: The domestic beef market price is 59.35 CNY/kg, showing a slight decrease of 0.05% week-on-week but a significant increase of 27.63% year-on-year [1][15]. - **Poultry**: The price of broiler chicks is 1.23 CNY/bird, down 43% week-on-week, while the price of eggs in major production areas is 2.90 CNY/jin, up 9.85% week-on-week but down 35.27% year-on-year [1][14]. Feed and Raw Materials - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price is 3024 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1%. The report indicates strong support for supply and demand in the medium to long term [2][3]. - **Corn**: The domestic corn spot price is 2415 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.37% and a year-on-year increase of 0.12% [2][3]. - **Sugar**: The price in Guangxi is 5980 CNY/ton, down 0.17% week-on-week, with attention on import rhythms and crude oil price fluctuations [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - **Beef**: Guangming Meat Industry - **Pets**: Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Ruipu Biological - **Feed**: Haida Group - **Pork**: Dekang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, Huazhong Agriculture, and others - **Poultry**: Lihua Co., Yisheng Co., and Shengnong Development [3][4].

Market Review - The textile and apparel sector experienced a decline in stock prices since June, influenced by economic fundamentals and external factors such as Middle East conflicts, leading to a drop of 3.1% in A-shares, 3.2% in Hong Kong stocks, and 5.7% in Taiwan stocks [1] - Notable performers in A-shares included Kai Run Co. (+4.0%), Seven Wolves (+3.5%), and Desso Fashion (+2.9%), while in Hong Kong, Tianhong Textile (+12.0%) and Bosideng (+6.4%) led the gains [1] Brand Channel Insights - Retail sales growth for apparel in May showed improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, driven by e-commerce promotions [2] - The outdoor and home textile segments saw double-digit growth in May, while personal care products experienced a noticeable slowdown [2] - Leading brands in the outdoor segment included Berghaus (+267%), Kailas (+230%), and Decathlon (+110%) [2] Manufacturing and Export Trends - In May, Vietnam's textile and footwear exports grew by 21.7% and 7.5% year-on-year, respectively, while China's textile and apparel exports showed a decline of 2.0% and a slight increase of 2.5% for garments [3] - The PMI for Indonesia, Vietnam, and China increased, indicating a positive trend, while India's PMI declined [3] - Companies like Yuanyuan and Rihong reported a slowdown in growth due to currency exchange rates and high base effects from the previous year [3] Tmall 618 Sales Insights - The Tmall 618 sales event saw Uniqlo maintaining its top position in the apparel category, with UR and ZARA rising to the top three [4] - In the outdoor segment, Nike, FILA, and Adidas remained the top three brands, with Lululemon and Asics making significant gains [4] - The home textile brand Atour Planet rose to first place in the home textile category [4] Q2 Earnings Forecast - A-shares are expected to show improvement in Q2 compared to Q1 for companies like Hailan and Fuanna, while others like Semir and Bi Yin are anticipated to maintain their Q1 trends [5] - The overall performance of sports apparel in Hong Kong is expected to continue the growth trend seen in Q1, with high-end brands maintaining strong growth [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with improving trends and good valuation during the mid-year reporting period, particularly in the sports and outdoor apparel segments [9] - Key recommendations include Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Xtep International for their growth potential and valuation attractiveness [9]

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月24日 金融工程日报 A 股放量上涨收复 3400 点，固态电池、机器人概念拉升 核心观点 金融工程日报 市场表现：今日(20250624) 市场全线上涨，规模指数中中证 2000 指数表现 较好，板块指数中北证 50 指数表现较好，风格指数中中证 500 成长指数表 现较好。综合、非银、汽车、电新、计算机行业表现较好，石油石化、煤炭、 国防军工、交通运输、银行行业表现较差。锂电负极、炒股软件、ETC、宇 树机器人、锂电电解液等概念表现较好，油气开采、页岩气、天然气、油气 改革、航运精选等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：今日收盘时有 85 只股票涨停，有 19 只股票跌停。昨日涨停股票 今日收盘收益为 1.64%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为 2.14%。今日封板率 77%，较前日下降 0%，连板率 23%，较前日下降 16%。 市场资金流向：截至 20250623 两融余额为 18169 亿元，其中融资余额 18052 亿元，融券余额 117 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.3%，两融交易占市 场成交额比重为 8.5%。 折溢价：20250623 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是智能 ...