证券研究报告 | 2025年06月25日 资产端：提高权益投资规模，OCI 扩容增强收益稳定性。长端利率维持低位 叠加 IFRS9 会计准则，险企面临固收资产收益下行及权益资产波动等压力。 此外，优质非标投资下占比降显著，进一步加大险企资产端收益压力。在此 背景下，权益投资结构性调整显著。险资持续聚焦高股息行业，加大 OCI 权 益资产配置力度，在平滑投资波动的同时把握中长期稳定现金流。此外，行 业通过长期投资改革试点探索"长钱长投"模式以平滑波动。近年来保险资 金股票配置占比有所提升。基于过去三年险资配置行为，我们分别测算了人 身险行业及财险行业 2025 年至 2027 年的综合投资收益率。我们预计人身险 未来三年综合投资收益率 4.06%、3.93%、3.92%，财险为 4.14%、3.98%、3.96%。 风险提示：保费收入不及预期；资本市场延续震荡；长端利率下行等。 投资建议：综合以上分析，我们认为随着负债端成本较快下行和资产端高分 红资产稳定投资收益，上市险企利差风险持续收窄，为基本面持续改善带来 持续催化。进入三季度，预计预定利率将再次下调，短期"炒停售"或将激 活短期保费增量，中长期利好负债成 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the mechanical equipment industry [4][30]. Core Views - The humanoid robot sector is highlighted for its growth potential, with a focus on key suppliers and companies with strong market positions. Specific components such as joint modules, dexterous hands, and reducers are identified as critical areas for investment [2][3]. - AI infrastructure is expected to see continued capital expenditure growth driven by demand for data centers, benefiting companies involved in gas turbines and chillers [2]. - The low-altitude economy is progressing rapidly, with a national low-altitude traffic project initiated to standardize air traffic management [3]. - The smart welding robot market is projected to grow significantly, particularly in the steel structure industry, with a market potential nearing 100 billion [3]. - 3D printing technology is gaining traction in various sectors, including aerospace and consumer electronics, due to its advantages in creating complex structures and reducing development cycles [3]. - X-ray detection equipment is experiencing rapid growth driven by demand in healthcare and industrial sectors, with a focus on domestic production of core components [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Recent developments include the introduction of various humanoid robots and AI infrastructure projects, such as the opening of a new data center by Alibaba Cloud in South Korea [1][19]. - The report notes significant growth in 3D printing equipment production, with a year-on-year increase of 40% in May [20]. Government News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission supports the application of the fifth set of listing standards for companies in cutting-edge technology sectors, including AI and low-altitude economy [21]. Company Developments - Notable partnerships and investments include Demar Technology's strategic agreement with Zhiyuan Robotics and Qinan Co., Ltd.'s investment in Moxian Technology [23][24]. - Midea's humanoid robot has successfully begun operations in its factories, marking a significant step in automation [16]. - The launch of the Star Motion Q5 intelligent robot showcases advancements in flexible joint technology and AI control systems [18]. Key Company Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Several companies are rated as "Outperform the Market," including Green's Harmonics, Huichuan Technology, and Zhaowei Electric, with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2024 and 2025 [7][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The rise of new consumption is fundamentally driven by a significant change in consumer concepts shaped by the economic and social context of different generations, particularly from the 70s to the 00s [4][5] - The current consumer market is characterized by a shift from "survival-type" products to "quality + emotional-type" products, with a focus on emotional value and quality-price ratio [4][10] - Investment logic in new consumption should focus on sustainable growth capabilities rather than short-term speculative opportunities, emphasizing product innovation and strong brand recognition [4] Summary by Sections 1. Economic and Demographic Background of Consumption Changes - The per capita GDP in China has grown from over 10,000 RMB in 1995 to 84,000 RMB in 2023, establishing a buyer's market [4][15] - Consumer spending is increasingly constrained by rigid expenditures on housing, healthcare, and education, alongside wealth effects [4][19] - The educational attainment of the 95/00 generation has significantly increased, with a CAGR of 10.5% in the number of undergraduate graduates from 1998 to 2023 [4][23] - Urbanization rates have remained high, influencing consumption patterns and driving the reconstruction of consumption scenarios [4][24] 2. Product Evolution - The transition in consumer products reflects a shift towards quality and emotional engagement, with head brands focusing on domestic alternatives and functional trends [4][10] - The market has seen a rise in low-cost, emotionally valuable products, such as beauty care, jewelry, and IP toys, which are now key segments [4][10] 3. Marketing Evolution - Marketing strategies have evolved from traditional brand advertising to performance-driven advertising, with a focus on maximizing advertising efficiency [4][10] - The rise of digital platforms has transformed marketing channels, emphasizing the importance of consumer engagement and conversion rates [4][10] 4. Channel Evolution - The shift towards online channels has significantly increased penetration rates across various categories, with a focus on consumer value rather than supplier value [4][10] - The integration of public and private domains has become crucial for navigating the challenges posed by traditional retail models [4][10]

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the non-bank financial sector in the second half of 2025, driven by a shift in deposit behavior and a decline in deposit rates, which encourages investment in risk assets [7] - The insurance industry is undergoing a transformation with a focus on liability cost reduction and improved channel quality, leading to significant growth in new business value (NBV) for major insurers [8] - The securities industry is experiencing a recovery in cross-border investment banking and derivative business, presenting new growth opportunities for leading brokerage firms [9] - The internet sector is witnessing the rise of stablecoins, with Circle's recent IPO marking a significant milestone in the market, which is expected to continue expanding [11][12] Non-Bank Financial Sector - The report discusses the concept of "deposit migration" as a catalyst for increased investment in risk assets, with total household deposits reaching 160 trillion yuan, of which nearly 75% are time deposits [7] - Financial institutions are responding to the demand for higher returns by developing diverse investment products, leading to increased competition and innovation in the market [7] Insurance Industry - The insurance sector is seeing a shift towards more flexible product structures, with a notable increase in the share of participating insurance products [8] - Major insurers like China Life and Ping An are reporting substantial growth in NBV, with increases of 4.8% and 34.9% respectively [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of the bancassurance channel as a new growth driver, with significant premium growth reported by companies like Taiping Life [8] Securities Industry - The report notes an uptick in trading activity in the capital markets, with brokerage firms benefiting from increased margin financing and trading volumes [9] - The recovery of overseas investment banking activities, particularly in Hong Kong IPOs, is highlighted as a key growth area for securities firms [9] - The emergence of over-the-counter derivatives and structured products is seen as a potential growth avenue for brokerage firms [9] Internet Sector - The stablecoin market has surpassed $250 billion, with USDT and USDC dominating the space, holding 84% of the market share [11] - Circle's IPO has significantly boosted its market presence, with a stock price increase of over 675% shortly after listing [11] - The report discusses the strategic partnership between Circle and Coinbase, which is expected to enhance the adoption and utility of USDC [12] Electronic Industry - The report indicates strong investment in AI computing power, with a recommendation for ASICs and storage modules as key areas of focus [14] - The semiconductor industry is witnessing significant expansions, with Texas Instruments announcing over $60 billion in investments to meet future demand [15] - The report highlights the ongoing price recovery in the storage market, with NAND Flash prices expected to rise by 3-8% in Q2 2025 [17] Agricultural Sector - The report emphasizes the potential for a cyclical recovery in the beef market, with expectations for improved pricing in 2025 [24] - It notes the stable supply of poultry and the potential for price increases in the corn market due to tightening supply-demand dynamics [23][24] - The report suggests a focus on undervalued leaders in the livestock sector, particularly in beef and dairy [24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [1][5][4]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the beef cycle and recommends investments in leading companies in the livestock sector, particularly in beef and raw milk, which are expected to experience a positive resonance in 2025 [3][4]. - The pet industry is highlighted as a growth sector benefiting from demographic changes, while the feed sector, particularly Haida Group, is expected to gain from the recovery in aquaculture [3][4]. - The report notes that the pig industry shows insufficient expansion willingness, but the overall market conditions are expected to remain stable through 2025, with a focus on undervalued leading companies [3][4]. - Poultry production is expected to maintain low volatility, with white chicken consumption gradually increasing and yellow chicken likely to benefit from improved domestic demand [3][4]. Summary by Sections Livestock - **Pork**: The average price of live pigs is 14.16 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 1.22%. The price of 7kg piglets is approximately 446 CNY/head, down 4.98% week-on-week [1][13]. - **Beef**: The domestic beef market price is 59.35 CNY/kg, showing a slight decrease of 0.05% week-on-week but a significant increase of 27.63% year-on-year [1][15]. - **Poultry**: The price of broiler chicks is 1.23 CNY/bird, down 43% week-on-week, while the price of eggs in major production areas is 2.90 CNY/jin, up 9.85% week-on-week but down 35.27% year-on-year [1][14]. Feed and Raw Materials - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price is 3024 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1%. The report indicates strong support for supply and demand in the medium to long term [2][3]. - **Corn**: The domestic corn spot price is 2415 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.37% and a year-on-year increase of 0.12% [2][3]. - **Sugar**: The price in Guangxi is 5980 CNY/ton, down 0.17% week-on-week, with attention on import rhythms and crude oil price fluctuations [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - **Beef**: Guangming Meat Industry - **Pets**: Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Ruipu Biological - **Feed**: Haida Group - **Pork**: Dekang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, Huazhong Agriculture, and others - **Poultry**: Lihua Co., Yisheng Co., and Shengnong Development [3][4].

Market Review - The textile and apparel sector experienced a decline in stock prices since June, influenced by economic fundamentals and external factors such as Middle East conflicts, leading to a drop of 3.1% in A-shares, 3.2% in Hong Kong stocks, and 5.7% in Taiwan stocks [1] - Notable performers in A-shares included Kai Run Co. (+4.0%), Seven Wolves (+3.5%), and Desso Fashion (+2.9%), while in Hong Kong, Tianhong Textile (+12.0%) and Bosideng (+6.4%) led the gains [1] Brand Channel Insights - Retail sales growth for apparel in May showed improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, driven by e-commerce promotions [2] - The outdoor and home textile segments saw double-digit growth in May, while personal care products experienced a noticeable slowdown [2] - Leading brands in the outdoor segment included Berghaus (+267%), Kailas (+230%), and Decathlon (+110%) [2] Manufacturing and Export Trends - In May, Vietnam's textile and footwear exports grew by 21.7% and 7.5% year-on-year, respectively, while China's textile and apparel exports showed a decline of 2.0% and a slight increase of 2.5% for garments [3] - The PMI for Indonesia, Vietnam, and China increased, indicating a positive trend, while India's PMI declined [3] - Companies like Yuanyuan and Rihong reported a slowdown in growth due to currency exchange rates and high base effects from the previous year [3] Tmall 618 Sales Insights - The Tmall 618 sales event saw Uniqlo maintaining its top position in the apparel category, with UR and ZARA rising to the top three [4] - In the outdoor segment, Nike, FILA, and Adidas remained the top three brands, with Lululemon and Asics making significant gains [4] - The home textile brand Atour Planet rose to first place in the home textile category [4] Q2 Earnings Forecast - A-shares are expected to show improvement in Q2 compared to Q1 for companies like Hailan and Fuanna, while others like Semir and Bi Yin are anticipated to maintain their Q1 trends [5] - The overall performance of sports apparel in Hong Kong is expected to continue the growth trend seen in Q1, with high-end brands maintaining strong growth [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with improving trends and good valuation during the mid-year reporting period, particularly in the sports and outdoor apparel segments [9] - Key recommendations include Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Xtep International for their growth potential and valuation attractiveness [9]

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月24日 金融工程日报 A 股放量上涨收复 3400 点，固态电池、机器人概念拉升 核心观点 金融工程日报 市场表现：今日(20250624) 市场全线上涨，规模指数中中证 2000 指数表现 较好，板块指数中北证 50 指数表现较好，风格指数中中证 500 成长指数表 现较好。综合、非银、汽车、电新、计算机行业表现较好，石油石化、煤炭、 国防军工、交通运输、银行行业表现较差。锂电负极、炒股软件、ETC、宇 树机器人、锂电电解液等概念表现较好，油气开采、页岩气、天然气、油气 改革、航运精选等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：今日收盘时有 85 只股票涨停，有 19 只股票跌停。昨日涨停股票 今日收盘收益为 1.64%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为 2.14%。今日封板率 77%，较前日下降 0%，连板率 23%，较前日下降 16%。 市场资金流向：截至 20250623 两融余额为 18169 亿元，其中融资余额 18052 亿元，融券余额 117 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.3%，两融交易占市 场成交额比重为 8.5%。 折溢价：20250623 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是智能 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3][5] Core Views - The company plans to acquire 30% equity in Rainbow Optoelectronics, which is expected to help consolidate and expand its competitive advantage in the panel industry. This acquisition will enhance the company's product line and diversify its customer base, increasing the market share of the BOE system to over 30% [4][5][11] - The expected revenue growth for the company from 2025 to 2027 is projected at 13.3%, 8.3%, and 9.2%, reaching 2248 billion, 2434 billion, and 2659 billion respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow by 64.0%, 39.8%, and 20.8%, reaching 87.30 billion, 122.04 billion, and 147.37 billion respectively [5][13] Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - On June 17, the company announced its intention to acquire 30% equity in Xi'an Rainbow Optoelectronics Technology Co., Ltd. from Rainbow Display Device Co., Ltd. at a base price of 4.849 billion [4][6] - Rainbow Optoelectronics is a subsidiary of Rainbow Display, focusing on display panels primarily for televisions, with sizes ranging from 32 to 100 inches. This acquisition is anticipated to enhance the company's product offerings and customer diversity [4][11] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve stable profitability in the panel industry, with revenue from display panels projected to reach 102.1 billion in 2024, accounting for 87.5% of total revenue. The net profit for Rainbow Optoelectronics is expected to be 6.51 billion and 13.39 billion for 2023 and 2024 respectively [6][11] - The financial forecast indicates a steady increase in revenue and net profit, with the current price-to-book ratios projected at 1.07, 1.02, and 0.96 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][13] Market Positioning - The acquisition is expected to balance the technology and product mix of the BOE system, further diversifying its customer base. The company currently operates an 8.6-generation VA production line, with a significant focus on 50-inch television panels, which are projected to account for 59% of total shipments in 2024 [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electronic industry, indicating expected performance above the market index by more than 10% [1][10]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the ongoing strong investment in AI computing power, particularly in ASICs, storage modules, and edge-side innovations. Despite a slight decline in the Shanghai Composite Index, the electronic sector has shown resilience with a 0.95% increase, driven by strong performance in components [1][11]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for the electronic sector in 2025, driven by macro policy cycles, industry inventory cycles, and AI innovation cycles, suggesting a valuation expansion trend [1]. - The report also notes that major companies like TI are investing over $60 billion in new and expanded semiconductor manufacturing facilities, reflecting confidence in long-term demand [2]. - The introduction of new AI glasses by Meta is expected to enhance user experience, prompting a recommendation to focus on domestic SoC companies [3]. - The report indicates that the price increase for storage products in Q2 2025 is better than expected, with NAND Flash prices projected to rise by 3-8% and DRAM prices for server DDR4 expected to increase by 18-23% [4]. - The ASIC market is projected to grow significantly, with major tech companies ramping up development efforts, indicating a robust demand for ASICs [5][7]. Summary by Sections Electronic Industry Performance - The electronic sector has outperformed the broader market, with a notable increase in component stocks [1][11]. - The report identifies key companies to watch, including 澜起科技, 翱捷科技, and others, as they are expected to benefit from the ongoing trends in AI and semiconductor demand [1]. Semiconductor Investments - TI's investment plan of over $60 billion is aimed at expanding production capacity in response to increasing demand, which is seen as a continuation of their previous strategies [2]. - The report recommends companies like 圣邦股份 and 思瑞浦 as beneficiaries of this investment trend [2]. AI Innovations - The launch of AI glasses by Meta is expected to drive interest in domestic SoC companies, suggesting a growing market for AI-integrated devices [3]. - The report highlights the importance of advancements in AI capabilities, particularly with the anticipated release of GPT-5, which is expected to significantly enhance AI infrastructure needs [7]. Storage Market Trends - The storage market is showing signs of recovery, with price increases for NAND Flash and DRAM products, driven by supply constraints and increased demand from CSP manufacturers [4]. - Companies such as 德明利 and 江波龙 are recommended for their potential to benefit from this upward price trend [4]. ASIC Market Outlook - The ASIC market is experiencing a surge in demand, with major tech firms investing heavily in development, indicating a strong growth trajectory for the industry [5][7]. - The report suggests that companies like 沪电股份 and 工业富联 will benefit from the increasing demand for ASICs [7].

2025年06月24日 证券研究报告 | 从Circle上市， 探索稳定币与交易所的合作模式 行业研究 · 行业专题 互联网 · 互联网Ⅱ 投资评级：优于大市（维持） • 全球稳定币市场规模已突破2500亿美元，行业呈现双寡头格局，USDT和USDC两者合计占84%的市场份额。整个加密货币市场总市值达3.35 万亿美元，稳定币占比7.48%，稳定币市场规模过去五年复合增速超80%，应用场景不断拓展。其中，Tether发行的USDT是全球最早也是 最大的稳定币，占60%的市场份额。Circle发行的USDC是全球第二大稳定币，市占率24%。USDC底层为美债与美元1:1储备，以合规性和透 明度为核心优势。 • Circle:作为USDC发行方在2025年6月5日登陆纽交所，作为"稳定币第一股"股价在十余天内累计涨幅超675%。商业模式主要为储备资产 利息收入、占总收入比例超99%。伴随着2025年6月17日美国参议院通过《GENIUS法案》，政策环境逐渐明晰，为稳定币市场发展提供土 壤。本文对稳定币未来市场空间与Circle财务数据进行拆分预测，并对比讨论Circle与其他加密市场相关标的估值情况。 • Cir ...