wo[Table_Title] Research Report 13 May 2025 中国互联网 China (Overseas) Internet T86 未被纳入中美谈判议题，跨境电商税负压力持续 [Table_summary] 事件： 截至 2025 年 5 月 12 日，中美在日内瓦举行的高层经贸谈判取得了实质性进展。但此次联合声明并没有提及 T86 政 策，意味着 T86 政策照常取消。自从 2025 年 5 月 2 日美国正式取消 T86 免税政策，标志着中国跨境电商在美"低价 直邮"时代的终结，尤其对跨境电商 Temu,TikTok, Shein 等产生影响。 点评： T86 取消带来成本飙升与履约难题 1）Temu： 模式受限，市场份额下滑。Temu 原本依赖于中国直邮和低价策略在美国市场迅速扩张。然而，T86 政策的取消迫 使 Temu 停止从中国直接向美国客户发货，转而依赖美国本地卖家和仓储系统。这一转变导致其在美国的下载量下 降了 73%，活跃用户减少了 43%。此外，Temu 还削减了在美国的广告支出，并计划在美国建立本地仓储和物流运 营，以适应新的贸易环境。 T86 policy ...

Investment Rating - The report provides an overall positive outlook for the technology hardware sector, indicating a recovery in valuations due to tariff easing between China and the U.S. [1] Core Insights - The easing of tariffs is expected to stabilize costs for key components in the consumer electronics supply chain, particularly benefiting companies in the Apple supply chain [2][8] - The semiconductor sector will experience short-term cost relief, but domestic replacements in China are anticipated to grow, impacting market shares of U.S. companies like Texas Instruments and Intel in the long run [2][9] - Data center hardware costs are projected to decrease, enhancing profit margins for companies involved in AI server production and data center construction [2][11] - The tariff policy is moving towards a more rational level, reducing the risk of further escalation, although long-term uncertainties remain [2][12] Consumer Electronics - Supply chain pressures are expected to ease, with most products under a 90-day tariff exemption, leading to a stabilization of costs for iPhone and other hardware components [2][8] - Companies such as Sunny Optical, Q Tech, and Luxshare are likely to see margins recover to pre-tariff levels, with stable order flows from assemblers [2][8] Semiconductors - U.S. semiconductor companies will benefit from reduced export costs due to tariff cuts, particularly Texas Instruments and Analog Devices, which have significant sales in China [2][9] - Despite short-term benefits, the market share of U.S. chipmakers is expected to decline as domestic Chinese manufacturers continue to grow [2][10] Data Centers - The reduction in tariffs on GPU servers and optical modules will lower BOM costs, positively impacting profit margins for AI server manufacturers [2][11] - The overall construction costs for data centers in the U.S. are expected to decrease, potentially accelerating the construction timeline [2][11] Policy Outlook - The report suggests that tariff policies are trending towards rationalization, with ongoing negotiations expected to address various trade issues [2][12] - Future discussions may include topics such as fentanyl control and export restrictions on advanced technologies [2][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, projecting a target price of RMB 8.55 based on a 19x PE for 2025 [4][9]. Core Insights - The company's 2024 revenue was RMB 9.27 billion, a decrease of 2.5% year-over-year (YOY), with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 250 million, down 42.3% YOY due to increased credit loss provisions [4][9]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 2.21 billion, a decline of 3.1% YOY, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 22.8% YOY to RMB 180 million [4][9]. - A slight reduction in electricity prices is expected in 2025, but cost improvements are anticipated, including a reduction in revenue by RMB 160 million and a decrease in costs by RMB 76 million due to electricity price adjustments [4][9]. - Falling coal prices may enhance the company's performance, with a projected RMB 240 million reduction in fuel costs if coal prices decrease by RMB 50 per ton [4][9]. - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 618 million in 2025, representing a 149% increase YOY, with a PE of 15.5x [4][9]. Financial Summary - The financial summary indicates the following projections for revenue and net profit: - Revenue for 2025 is estimated at RMB 9.57 billion, with a growth of 3.2% from 2024 [3]. - Net profit for 2025 is projected at RMB 618 million, a significant increase from RMB 248 million in 2024 [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be RMB 0.45, increasing to RMB 0.60 by 2027 [4][9]. - The report highlights a decrease in the net asset return rate (ROE) from 5.8% in 2023 to 3.3% in 2024, with a recovery to 7.9% by 2025 [3][4]. Operational Insights - By the end of 2024, the company had an operational capacity of 4.06 million kW, with plans to add 1.3 million kW in 2025 [4][9]. - The company completed a power supply of 21.23 billion kWh in 2024, an increase of 1.42 billion kWh YOY, attributed to enhanced cooperation with the Seventh Division grid [4][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Wuliangye Yibin with a target price of RMB 172.00, down from a previous target of RMB 194.00 [2][5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the core assets of Wuliangye remain strong despite the industry adjustment period, with a focus on enhancing marketing execution and implementing three major reforms: controlling volume and price, brand upgrading, and channel reconstruction [3][11]. - The company has experienced five consecutive years of double-digit revenue growth, with a projected revenue of RMB 93.8 billion for 2025, reflecting a CAGR of 12.2% from 2019 to 2024 [4][12]. - The gross profit margin has improved for six consecutive years, reaching 87.0% for Wuliangye products, indicating a strong product structure optimization [13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, the company is expected to generate revenue of RMB 93.8 billion and net profit of RMB 33.5 billion, with diluted EPS projected at RMB 8.6 [5][14]. - The company reported a revenue of RMB 36.94 billion and a net profit of RMB 14.86 billion for Q1 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 6.1% and 5.8%, respectively [4][12]. Market Context - The Chinese stock market is experiencing an uptrend, with high dividend core assets being favored. The SSE/Hang Seng Index has performed well, supported by government policies and foreign capital inflows [3][10]. - The Baijiu industry is facing intensified differentiation, with Wuliangye expected to solidify its leading position during the current industry adjustment [11][12]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a valuation of 20x 2025e PE for Wuliangye, which is lower than the previous valuation of 22x for 2024, reflecting adjustments in growth expectations [5][14]. - The company's dividend payout ratio is set to increase from 60% in FY23 to 70% in FY24, which is significantly higher than the A-share average [5][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 45.91, reflecting a slight decrease of 2% from previous estimates [4][9]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 5.62 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.28%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 2.65 billion, up 31.72% year-on-year [9]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 1.21 billion, a 3.57% increase year-on-year but a 20.27% decrease quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 0.56 billion, down 1.15% year-on-year and 3.63% quarter-on-quarter [9]. - The revenue growth in Q1 2025 fell short of expectations due to tariff adjustments and increased overseas warehouse shipments affecting delivery timelines [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are updated to RMB 2.90 billion, RMB 3.24 billion, and RMB 3.58 billion for net profit, with corresponding EPS of RMB 2.30, RMB 2.56, and RMB 2.83 [9]. - The company’s revenue from desktop communication terminals is RMB 3.08 billion, with a gross profit margin of 67.55%. Conference products generated RMB 1.99 billion in revenue, with a gross profit margin of 65.67% [9]. - The total cash dividends for 2024 are projected at RMB 2.40 billion, with a payout ratio of 90.59% [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 57.92, representing a potential upside of 19% from the current price of RMB 49.40 [4][9]. Core Insights - The company has shown year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth in its Q1 2025 performance, with revenue reaching RMB 220 million, up 14.97% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 71 million, up 15.82% YoY [10]. - The nucleating agent industry is expected to experience significant growth, with the global market projected to reach approximately USD 1.2 billion by 2030, driven by increasing demand for high-performance resin materials [10]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 882 million, a 10.31% increase YoY, and a net profit of RMB 250 million, up 10.68% YoY [10]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be RMB 2.32, with further growth expected in subsequent years, reaching RMB 3.36 by 2027 [4][9]. - The company has maintained a strong return on equity (ROE), projected to be 19.9% in 2025, with a steady increase in net profit margins [6][10].

Investment Rating - The report rates the thermal power sector as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - Thermal power remains the most promising yet controversial sector, with significant market performance observed in the week of May 5-9, 2025, including Huaneng Power International up by 4% and Longyuan Power up by 6.3% [4] - Despite a significant decline in thermal power output in Q1, fixed costs per unit remained stable due to lower interest rates and enhanced cost control measures [4] - The report anticipates four new characteristics for the power industry in 2025: 1. Electricity prices exceeding expectations; 2. Coal prices exceeding expectations; 3. Fixed costs exceeding expectations; 4. State-owned enterprise reform and market capitalization management exceeding expectations [4] - China's Q1 electricity elasticity coefficient is reported at 0.46%, but it is expected to exceed 1 in 2025, indicating a potential increase in electricity demand relative to GDP growth [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The power sector showed strong performance in early May 2025, with notable increases in stock prices for major companies [4] Cost Dynamics - Q1 thermal power output saw a significant decline, but fixed costs per unit remained stable, attributed to lower interest rates and improved cost management [4] Future Expectations - The report outlines expectations for 2025, highlighting potential increases in electricity and coal prices, as well as fixed costs, alongside anticipated reforms in state-owned enterprises [4] Auxiliary Services - The introduction of the "Basic Rules for Power Auxiliary Service Market" is expected to enhance the value of thermal and hydropower sources, promoting a shift from policy-driven to market-driven development [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Kweichow Moutai [2][10][16] Core Views - Kweichow Moutai is expected to significantly benefit from the revaluation of Chinese assets due to economic transformation, a favorable policy environment, low valuations compared to global markets, and increased capital inflows [3][4][13][14] - The company is viewed as a core asset with enhanced attractiveness for investment, supported by strong strategic holdings from state-owned funds and increasing public fund allocations [4][14] - Kweichow Moutai demonstrates strong performance stability across economic cycles, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.4% for revenue and 15.2% for net profit from 2019 to 2024, alongside high dividend payouts [5][15][16] Financial Summary - Current price is Rmb1,591 with a target price of Rmb1,972, reflecting a potential upside [2][16] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are Rmb190,868 million, Rmb208,285 million, and Rmb228,087 million respectively, with net profit estimates of Rmb98,561 million, Rmb108,443 million, and Rmb120,373 million [2][11][15] - The company maintains a gross profit margin (GPM) of around 92% and a return on equity (ROE) of approximately 36% [5][11][15] Investment Thesis - The investment thesis highlights the company's high dividend payout ratio of 75% and a dividend yield of 3.5%, providing a solid return cushion [16] - The management's confidence is further demonstrated by share repurchases totaling Rmb3.039 billion, supporting the stock price [16] - The report adjusts the earnings forecast and target price due to a decrease in growth guidance from 15% to 9% for 2025, with a revised PE ratio of 26 times for 2025 [16]

Group 1: 2011-2014: Overseas Liquidity and Mobile Internet Wave - The Hong Kong stock market significantly outperformed the A-share market from late 2011 to mid-2014, with the Hang Seng Index achieving an excess return of 62 percentage points relative to the CSI 300 [9][10][22] - Key drivers included abundant overseas liquidity, gradual appreciation of the Renminbi, and a weak recovery in domestic fundamentals supported by government policies [10][11][22] - The mobile internet wave catalyzed the market, with hardware investments transitioning to software applications, leading to substantial gains in the technology sector [22][23] Group 2: 2016-2018: Supply-Side Reform and Capital Inflow - The Hong Kong stock market continued to outperform the A-share market from 2016 to 2018, with the Hang Seng Index outperforming the CSI 300 by 38 percentage points during this period [29][30] - The market was driven by supply-side structural reforms that improved fundamentals, alongside significant inflows of capital from mainland investors [30][36] - In 2016, the Hong Kong market was notably undervalued, with the Hang Seng Index trading at a historical low price-to-book ratio, which attracted investment [30][43] Group 3: 2019-2021: Rapid Recovery and Liquidity Expansion - From late 2019 to early 2021, the core assets of the Hong Kong stock market significantly outperformed the A-share market, with the Hang Seng Technology Index achieving a 137 percentage point excess return over the CSI 300 [60][61] - This performance was supported by a favorable overseas liquidity environment and rapid recovery of the domestic economy post-COVID-19, leading to improved corporate earnings [61][62] - The influx of Chinese concept stocks returning to Hong Kong also enhanced market liquidity and attractiveness, further driving investment [63][64]

Financial Performance - ADNOCDRI reported Q1 2025 revenue of $1.17 billion, exceeding consensus expectations of $1.11 billion[3] - Q1 2025 net income was $341 million, surpassing the consensus estimate of $332 million[3] - The EBITDA margin for Q1 2025 was 46%, slightly below the expected 47%[3] Fiscal Guidance - The company reaffirmed its FY 2025 revenue guidance of $4.6 billion to $4.8 billion[3] - Capital expenditure guidance for FY 2025 was raised to $350 million to $550 million, representing a 26% completion of the revised guidance[3] Business Segments - Onshore drilling revenue is projected to be between $1.95 billion and $2.1 billion[3] - Offshore self-elevating and island drilling revenue is expected to range from $1.35 billion to $1.45 billion[3] - Oil service revenue is forecasted to be between $1.1 billion and $1.25 billion[3] Dividend Policy - The company has a progressive dividend policy, targeting at least a 10% year-on-year increase in dividends over the next five years[4] - For FY 2025, dividends are expected to reach at least $867 million, with a current yield of approximately 4%-5%[4] Growth Strategy - The total number of owned drilling rigs is expected to increase from 142 at the end of FY 2024 to over 151 by FY 2028, and ultimately to 190 by 2030[6] - The company plans to add one island rig by the end of FY 2025 and two more in the second half of FY 2026[6] Risks - Key risks include potential slowdown in energy demand, unplanned rig maintenance, execution risks, and lack of further capacity increases[7]