Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [6][20]. Core Insights - The company reported significant growth in both revenue and profit for Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 989 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.4%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 112 million yuan, up 580.6% [6][11]. - The company is making substantial progress in the low-altitude sector, including the launch of a joint venture with EHang for eVTOL production and the introduction of a new long-range unmanned aerial vehicle [6][11]. - The financial forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to reflect a net profit of 180 million yuan, up from a previous estimate of 110 million yuan, with EPS projections of 0.7, 0.7, and 1 yuan for 2025-2027 [6][11]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve total revenue of 3,293 million yuan, representing a growth rate of 35.5% compared to the previous year [6][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 178 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant increase of 151.0% year-on-year [6][10]. - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 15.7%, a slight decrease of 0.7 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [6][11]. Market Position and Strategic Developments - The company has established a strategic partnership with Jindi Co., integrating its advantages in electric drive system components with the company's system integration capabilities to enhance competitiveness in both domestic and international markets [6][11]. - The company has a strong production capacity with two major manufacturing bases, enabling it to meet the growing demand in the eVTOL market as it enters a production cycle [6][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for both new and second-hand housing markets in Shanghai [2] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector index fell by 2.3%, ranking 15th among 31 primary industry sectors [9] - New housing demand is declining, and inventory issues remain unresolved, necessitating stronger policy support to alleviate downward pressure on the real estate fundamentals [33] - The report emphasizes the importance of precise land acquisition for real estate companies to gradually shift from PB valuation to PS valuation [33] Industry Basic Data - Total number of stocks: 107 [2] - Total market value: 1,296.84 billion [2] - Circulating market value: 1,241.59 billion [2] Sales Performance - In the 42nd week, new housing transaction area increased by 115% week-on-week but decreased by 20% year-on-year, totaling 2.25 million square meters [21] - The average daily transaction area for new housing was 322,000 square meters [21] - For second-hand housing, the transaction area increased by 98% week-on-week but decreased by 18% year-on-year, totaling 199,000 square meters [25] Policy News - Shanghai is accelerating the renovation of "two old and one village" and enhancing urban governance [16] - New policies in Tianjin allow homeowners to withdraw housing provident fund for elevator installations [16] - Xiamen has announced optimized residency conditions effective from November 1, 2025 [16] Company Dynamics - Gemdale Group announced the acquisition of a residential land project in Wuhan for 45.6 million [20] - China Resources Land reported the acquisition of two land parcels in Wuhan and Chengdu with a total floor area of approximately 187,089 square meters for about 9.6 billion [20] - China Merchants Shekou won a residential land bid in Sanya for 458 million, with a floor area of 74,700 square meters [19]

—Christophe Fouquet 多资产配置研究 资产配置快评 2025 年 10 月 22 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：牛播坤 证 券 研 究 报 告 【资产配置快评】2025 年第 46 期 Riders on the Charts: 每周大类资产配置图 表精粹 投资摘要： Sometimes I say, Moore's Law will only stop when people stop having ideas ...And I think that has not happened so far. 邮箱：niubokun@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360514030002 证券分析师：郭忠良 邮箱：guozhongliang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520090002 相关研究报告 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 45 期：Riders on the Charts：每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2025-10-14 《资配如何应对新变化—— 总量"创"辩第 113 期》 2025-10-14 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 44 期：Riders on the C ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [4][24]. Core Insights - The company's innovative chemotherapy drug, Legubixin, has shown impressive results in Phase III trials, which have been selected for oral presentation at ESMO 2025. The drug demonstrates both efficacy and safety, validating the Tumor Microenvironment Specific Activation (TMEA) platform mechanism [2][8]. - The first innovative drug from the company's deep collaboration pipeline, ALK-N001, is also based on the same platform, and its future progress is worth monitoring [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline from 1,538 million in 2024 to 1,470 million in 2025, before increasing to 1,806 million in 2026 and 2,234 million in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of -5.4%, -4.4%, 22.9%, and 23.7% respectively [4][9]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to drop significantly from 80 million in 2024 to 131 million in 2025, then rise to 210 million in 2026 and 282 million in 2027, with growth rates of -41.9%, 62.8%, 60.5%, and 34.4% respectively [4][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.40 yuan in 2024 to 0.65 yuan in 2025, 1.04 yuan in 2026, and 1.40 yuan in 2027 [4][9]. - The target price for the stock is set at 52.05 yuan, compared to the current price of 38.92 yuan [4]. Market Comparison - The company's stock has shown a significant performance increase of 119% over the past 12 months, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the liquor sector, indicating a bottoming out phase with potential for recovery in the future [2]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing a significant decline in sales, with an expected drop of over 20% in overall sales volume. However, there are signs of month-on-month improvement, and the decline is narrowing [5][9]. - Major liquor companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are showing strong recovery in payment collection, with over 80% collection rates, while regional brands are performing adequately [5][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-quality liquor brands that are likely to recover faster, such as Moutai and Fenjiu, while also highlighting the need to monitor companies undergoing significant changes [6][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Sector: Q3 Accelerated Decline and Bottoming Out - The liquor sector is facing a 20%+ decline in sales due to external demand shocks, with a gradual improvement expected in the coming months [5][9]. - High-end liquor brands are expected to show resilience, with Moutai projected to achieve a 3% revenue growth in Q3, while Wuliangye is expected to see a 20% revenue decline [10][11]. - The report indicates that companies are adjusting their strategies to reduce channel pressure and improve operational efficiency [9][10]. 2. Consumer Goods Sector: Overall Demand Weakness, Structural Resilience - The consumer goods sector is experiencing overall weak demand, but segments like snacks and beverages are showing higher resilience [17][24]. - The report notes that while the demand for dairy and beer remains stable, the restaurant supply chain is still under pressure [17][24]. - Raw material prices are generally declining, which may provide some cost relief to companies in the sector [24][25]. 3. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Liquor Bottoming Catalysts and Selective Consumer Goods Trends - The report suggests focusing on liquor companies that are at the bottom of their cycles, with Moutai and Fenjiu being primary recommendations [6][9]. - For consumer goods, the report highlights the potential of snack and beverage companies, recommending brands that are well-positioned to benefit from current trends [6][17].

Economic Growth Perspective - In Q3, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.8%, while the nominal GDP growth rate was 3.7%[5] - Industrial output growth was 6.2%, while demand growth (including retail, fixed investment, and exports) was 2.98%, resulting in a growth rate difference of 3.2%[5] - Export growth was 7.1%, compared to a combined growth of 1.92% for retail and fixed investment, leading to a difference of 5.18%[5] Consumer Spending Insights - The combined growth rate for travel and policy-driven replacement consumption was 8.6%, while essential consumption categories like food and clothing saw a growth rate of only 0.3%[5] - The consumer spending tendency in Q3 was 68.1%, down from 68.9% in the same period last year, indicating a decline in consumer confidence[48] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth was -6.6% in Q3, a significant drop from the previous value of 1.8%[43] - Equipment investment grew by 14%, contrasting with a -4.1% decline in construction investment, highlighting a shift towards new economic sectors[15] Market Expectations and Policy Recommendations - To stabilize market expectations, it is crucial to maintain confidence in long-term economic transformation and short-term price recovery, with a target Q4 growth rate of around 4.5% to meet the annual goal[4] - The need for further reduction in mortgage rates is emphasized, as the cumulative decline in second-hand housing prices was 3.93% while mortgage rates only decreased by 3 basis points[8] Employment and Labor Market - The total number of rural laborers working outside their home areas reached 19.187 million, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9%[52] - The urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%, showing a slight decrease from the previous month[56]

Group 1: Core Conclusions - The tax competition index and tax refund rate for listed companies in China are currently at a 20-year high, indicating the urgent need for a unified market in China[2] - The European Single Market Scoreboard system provides valuable insights for China's unified market construction, focusing on historical context and operational mechanisms[2] Group 2: European Single Market Scoreboard - The Scoreboard uses a "traffic light" system to evaluate member states' performance, categorizing them as "green" (above average), "yellow" (average), or "red" (below average)[3] - It consists of three dimensions: Enforcement tools, Business Framework Conditions, and Outcomes and Competitiveness, with multiple quantifiable sub-indicators under each dimension[3][13] Group 3: Advantages of the Scoreboard - The evaluation system is quantifiable, allowing for cross-regional and temporal comparisons, with regular publication of results[3][14] - The Scoreboard emphasizes support for small and medium-sized enterprises, which can be a reference for China's market development[3][14] Group 4: Operational Mechanisms - The Enforcement tools dimension includes six indicators to assess the correct implementation of EU market rules, such as transposition deficit and infringement proceedings[6][35] - The Business Framework Conditions dimension evaluates member states' performance in creating a conducive business environment, with six indicators including market supervision and access to public procurement[9][10] Group 5: Implications for China - The Scoreboard's comprehensive evaluation can guide China in establishing its own unified market framework, focusing on governance, performance, and competitiveness[3][14] - The emphasis on resolving cross-border disputes and sharing government information through systems like IMI, SOLVIT, and EURES can enhance China's market efficiency[3][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer (000729) with a target price of 15.5 CNY [2][9]. Core Insights - Yanjing Beer reported a total revenue of 13.43 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.77 billion CNY, up 37.4% year-on-year [2]. - The company's U8 product line continues to show strong growth, with sales volume for Q3 slightly increasing to 1.1435 million kiloliters, driven by improved market conditions in September [9]. - Cost optimization has led to a decrease in unit costs by 2.8% to 2,125 CNY per kiloliter, contributing to a gross margin increase of 2.2 percentage points to 50.2% [9]. - The report highlights that the company is on track to meet its annual sales target of 900,000 tons for the U8 product, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 30% as of September [9]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024A, total revenue is projected at 14.667 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 3.2%. The net profit is expected to be 1.056 billion CNY, reflecting a significant growth rate of 63.7% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025E is 0.55 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23 [5][9]. - The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a debt-to-asset ratio of 32.55% and a net asset value per share of 5.62 CNY [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 54.6 yuan for 2026 [2][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 156.785 billion to 177.689 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 50% to 70% [2][6]. - The third quarter of 2025 is projected to yield a net profit of 115.854 billion to 136.758 billion yuan, indicating a quarterly growth rate of 75% to 106% [6]. - The significant growth in profits is primarily driven by increased equity investments, with the company actively seizing market opportunities [6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2024: 528.567 billion yuan - 2025E: 597.961 billion yuan - 2026E: 538.228 billion yuan - 2027E: 581.141 billion yuan - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2024: 106.935 billion yuan - 2025E: 176.476 billion yuan - 2026E: 114.417 billion yuan - 2027E: 137.478 billion yuan - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024: 3.78 yuan - 2025E: 6.24 yuan - 2026E: 4.05 yuan - 2027E: 4.86 yuan - **Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)**: - 2025E: 6.8 [2][6][7]. Investment Strategy - The company has increased its allocation to equity assets, with stocks rising by 1.12 percentage points to 8.7% and funds increasing by 0.28 percentage points to 4.92%, making a total equity asset allocation of 13.62% [6]. - The report highlights the company's strategy of flexible asset allocation to capture structural market opportunities, with total investment assets reaching 7.13 trillion yuan as of mid-2025, a 7.8% increase from the previous year [6][7].

Group 1: Stable Cash Flow Assets - Pharmaceutical commerce has a cash flow ratio of 55% in Q2 2025, indicating a stable cash flow generation capacity since 2021[11] - The hotel and catering industry shows a cash flow ratio of 49% in Q2 2025, with an average cash flow ratio of 50% from 2016 to 2024[18] - General retail has a cash flow ratio of 49% in Q2 2025, supported by reduced capital expenditures and inventory depletion[25] - Telecom operators maintain a cash flow ratio of 39% in Q2 2025, benefiting from stable demand and high user retention[32] Group 2: Improving Cash Flow Assets - The trade sector exhibits a cash flow ratio of 63% in Q2 2025, significantly improved due to reduced capital expenditures and inventory shrinkage[41] - The potential shareholder return rate for the trade sector is 7.1%, while the actual return is only 1.9%, indicating substantial room for dividend release[44] Group 3: Assets Under Pressure - The tourism and scenic area sector has a cash flow ratio of 21% in Q2 2025, with profitability still below pre-pandemic levels[51] - Professional services show a cash flow ratio of 13% in Q2 2025, with a significant decline in profitability due to weak demand[55] - Medical services have a cash flow ratio of 25% in Q2 2025, with profitability under pressure and limited dividend release potential[61] - The education sector has a cash flow ratio of 52% in Q2 2025, but profitability remains constrained post-regulatory changes[67] Group 4: High Expenditure Assets - The automotive services and IT services sectors are still in a high expenditure phase, with capital expenditures exceeding 1.5 in Q2 2025, indicating a new cycle of high spending driven by technological advancements[3]