投资摘要: & Every exit is an entry somewhere else. 证券研究报告 【资产配置快评】 潜在通胀上行风险的政策约束加强 -- 6 月 美联储议息会议点评 2025年第4期 资产配置快评 2025年06月19日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师:牛播坤 电话:010-66500825 邮箱:niubokun@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360514030002 证券分析师:郭忠良 电话:010-66500830 邮箱: guozhongliang@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360520090002 -Sir Tom Stoppard 1. 美联储 6月份议息会议宣布维持利率不变,对于经济前景不确定性的评估 倾向更加积极的预期。 2. 美联储下调美国经济增长预期,上调通胀预期,其中 2025年经济增长预期 值下调 0.3%至 1.4%,核心 PCE 预期值上调 0.3%至 3.1%。 3. 最新点阵图显示,2025年降息次数或仍为两次,2026年和2027年降息次 数均从2次降至1次。 4. 美联储对于高关税向通胀水平的传导保持高度警惕,同时对于货币政策限 制性的表达 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the micro-cap stocks are benefiting from liquidity expansion, with the current market environment favoring small-cap growth stocks due to a lack of a clear trend in the market and ongoing inflation concerns [2][3][15] - The micro-cap stock index has shown a strong performance, with a cumulative increase of 30% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the broader market [3][11][19] - The report highlights that the shareholder structure of micro-cap stocks is predominantly composed of individual investors, which positions them to benefit from the release of excess household savings into the stock market [4][23][34] Group 2 - The report identifies that the micro-cap sector is primarily driven by liquidity rather than fundamentals, as earnings growth is not a major pricing factor in the current environment [4][45][53] - The micro-cap industry covers sectors such as manufacturing and technology, including themes like AI, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to benefit from ongoing industrial policy support [5][63][64] - The trading mechanisms in the micro-cap space, such as higher price limits on exchanges like the Beijing Stock Exchange and ChiNext, provide greater elasticity compared to the main board, enhancing the attractiveness of micro-cap stocks [57][58]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 64 yuan [1][10]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a turning point as it clears inventory and launches new products, particularly with the anticipated release of the next-generation AQ-400 endoscope system in the second half of 2025 [7][9]. - Despite facing performance pressure in 2024 and 2025 due to external factors, the company continues to make progress in R&D and overseas market expansion, which are expected to drive significant growth in 2026 [8][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Impact of External Environment - The company is undergoing a two-year adjustment period in 2024 and 2025 due to ongoing anti-corruption measures affecting hospital equipment procurement [13]. - The national push for medical equipment upgrades has seen slow execution in some regions, impacting revenue recognition for the company [14][17]. 2. R&D and Overseas Market Development - The company has increased R&D investment, focusing on new product development, including the upcoming AQ-400 system, which is expected to be approved for market release in late 2025 [30][32]. - The overseas market presents significant growth potential, with the company’s overseas revenue growth outpacing domestic growth, reaching 42.7% in 2024 [38][44]. 3. Anticipated Breakthrough in 2026 - The company’s share buyback plan and employee stock ownership plan reflect management's confidence in future growth [45]. - The launch of the AQ-400 is expected to drive substantial sales growth in 2026, similar to the sales patterns observed with previous product launches [49][51]. 4. Long-term Industry Outlook - The soft endoscope industry is characterized by strong monopolistic structures and significant market potential, with opportunities for companies to transition towards a semi-consumable business model [9][14]. - The industry is expected to benefit from ongoing trends in minimally invasive surgical instruments and disposable endoscopes, which are seen as future growth directions [9][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [3][21]. Core Insights - The management highlighted the importance of internal improvement and efficiency enhancement, acknowledging current pressures on white liquor demand but maintaining a positive outlook on the industry's medium to long-term resilience [2][6]. - The strategic direction for 2025 is clear, focusing on steady progress and execution, with an emphasis on brand development and market expansion [2][6]. - The company plans to enhance its product matrix by launching high-end brands and innovating with lower-alcohol products, while also leveraging seasonal marketing strategies [2][6]. - The channel strategy includes expanding store coverage and improving single-store productivity, with a focus on new retail initiatives [2][6]. - The report emphasizes the need for operational precision and efficiency improvements, with expectations for better execution in marketing and resource allocation [2][6]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for 2024 is 5,217 million, with a growth rate of 5.3%, and expected to reach 6,308 million by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 10.8% [2][11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1,341 million in 2024, growing to 1,658 million by 2027, with a net profit growth rate of 14.5% in 2027 [2][11]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 2.75 in 2024 to 3.40 in 2027, with a decreasing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 15 in 2024 to 12 in 2027 [2][11]. Market Performance - The company's stock price target is set at 64 yuan, with the current price at 41.02 yuan, indicating significant upside potential [3][6]. - The total market capitalization is approximately 199.97 billion, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 39.95% [3][6].

多资产配置研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【资产配置快评】 潜在通胀上行风险的政策约束加强——6 月 美联储议息会议点评 2025 年第 4 期 ❖ 投资摘要： —Sir Tom Stoppard 1. 美联储 6 月份议息会议宣布维持利率不变，对于经济前景不确定性的评估 倾向更加积极的预期。 2. 美联储下调美国经济增长预期，上调通胀预期，其中 2025 年经济增长预期 值下调 0.3%至 1.4%，核心 PCE 预期值上调 0.3%至 3.1%。 3. 最新点阵图显示，2025 年降息次数或仍为两次，2026 年和 2027 年降息次 数均从 2 次降至 1 次。 4. 美联储对于高关税向通胀水平的传导保持高度警惕，同时对于货币政策限 制性的表述偏弱。 5. 下半年美国出台潜在关税对冲政策，或有利于美元资产，尤其是美股追赶 其他市场表现，除中国以外的新兴市场的企业盈利和股票估值压力或再度加 大。 ❖ 风险提示： 原油市场爆发价格战，新兴市场出现系统性金融风险 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：牛播坤 电话：010-66500825 邮箱：niubokun@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360514030002 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 陆家嘴论坛后，宽松交易或延续 2025 年 6 月 18 日上午，第十五届陆家嘴论坛开幕。2024 年陆家嘴论坛央行行 长发表关于当前的货币政策立场和未来货币政策框架的相关表态，其后货币政 策框架改革加速推进，故市场对于本次论坛内容较为关注。本文主要回顾 2019 年以来历次会议央行领导的主题发言内容以及债券市场表现。 陆家嘴论坛央行行长讲话回顾 回顾 2019 年以来央行行长的演讲的内容，2019-2020 年：会议主要聚焦上海 "五个中心"定位。2021-2023 年：议题转向绿色金融与普惠金融等，会议主 题呼应"双碳"目标与小微实体支持。2024 年：议题聚焦货币政策框架改革， 推动货币政策实现了数量型和价格型调控并行向以价格型调控为主导、以利率 为核心的货币政策框架转变。 2025 年：本次会议演讲围绕全球金融治理展开。值得关注的是，央行领导在 全球金融稳定体系所面临的挑战中重点提及非银行中介机构的监管仍然薄弱 的问题，关注非银机构的杠杆水平变化以及后续监管落实。 历史陆家嘴论坛后的收益率表现 从债市表现看，由于历次论坛央行领导表态多与绿色发展、国际合作、金融开 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" with an expectation that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [3][48]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the supply of white feather broilers is sufficient, while the demand side remains weak, impacting chicken product prices and industry profitability. The expectation is for a recovery in chicken consumption in 2025, driven by domestic demand expansion [6][42]. - The report highlights a cautious replenishment in the breeding sector, with a slight increase in the price of broiler chickens and stable prices for chicks. The average price of white feather chicks is 2.88 yuan per chick, with a month-on-month increase of 0.38% but a year-on-year decrease of 8% [8][11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - In May, the price of broiler chickens slightly increased, while chick prices remained stable. The overall survival rate in breeding is low, leading to a contraction in effective market supply. Terminal consumption continues to be weak, keeping prices low [8][11]. - The average price of white feather broilers in May was 7.41 yuan/kg, down 4% year-on-year and 0.074% month-on-month [11]. Production Capacity - As of May 2025, the average stock of parent stock was 23.83 million sets, an increase of 7.4% year-on-year and 2.1% month-on-month. The average stock of backup parent stock was 15 million sets, down 2.4% year-on-year but up 1.5% month-on-month [29][36]. - The report notes that the average stock of grandparent stock was 1.48 million sets, up 20.9% year-on-year and 2.8% month-on-month [28][31]. Financial Performance - The report indicates that the profitability of the chick sector has improved, while the losses in broiler farming have significantly reduced. In May, the loss in broiler farming was 0.07 yuan per chicken, a substantial reduction compared to previous periods [36][37]. - The profitability of hatcheries was reported at 0.26 yuan per chick, showing a significant increase month-on-month [36][37]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Shengnong Development, Yisheng Shares, and Hefeng Shares, as they are expected to benefit from the anticipated recovery in chicken consumption and improvements in profitability [42].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The significant increase in gold prices reflects market expectations of a global order restructuring, driven by central bank gold purchases, rising geopolitical risks, and potential pressures on the dollar system [3][7] - Global defense spending continues to rise amid escalating geopolitical conflicts, with China's defense expenditure projected to reach 1.7% of GDP by 2024, indicating substantial growth potential compared to major military powers like Russia (7.1%) and the US (3.4%) [3][10][15] - China's military trade is rapidly growing, with weapon exports reaching a historical high in 2023, accounting for 10.0% of global exports [3][20] - The military industry is experiencing capacity expansion as the "14th Five-Year Plan" approaches its conclusion, with significant catalysts expected from the "15th Five-Year Plan" and related commemorative activities [3][27] - The defense industry has shown notable activity due to recent conflicts, with a cumulative return of 5.9% since May 25, outperforming the broader market by 4.0% [3][4] Summary by Sections Geopolitical Context - The rise in gold prices is attributed to a complex scenario involving central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and pressures on the dollar system, indicating a strong expectation of global financial and political order restructuring [7] Global Defense Spending - Global defense spending is projected to reach $2.7 trillion by 2024, marking a 9.4% year-on-year increase, with regional spending becoming more balanced as Asia's share rises from 10.1% in 1992 to 22.3% in 2024 [10][15] China's Defense Expenditure - China's defense budget for 2025 is set at 1.81 trillion yuan, a 7.2% increase from the previous year, with a significant gap compared to other major military nations, suggesting room for growth [15][19] Military Trade Growth - China's military exports are shifting towards high-tech, high-value products, with a notable increase in international interest, as evidenced by the 2024 Zhuhai Airshow attracting significant attention [20][25] Industry Capacity and Planning - The military industry is expected to continue expanding capacity, with ongoing projects reaching 32.38 billion yuan as of Q1 2025, driven by the goals of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" initiatives [27][28] Market Activity and Valuation - The defense industry is currently experiencing high trading activity, with a trading heat index at the 76.2 percentile of the past decade, and a PE_TTM of 76.1, placing it at the 71.4 percentile historically [29][32] - The forecast for net profit growth in 2025 is projected at 119.6%, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [36] Fund Holdings - As of Q1 2025, active equity funds have a 3.2% market value allocation in the defense industry, reflecting a moderate level of investment interest [39] Recommended Stocks - The report includes a stock pool recommendation focusing on companies within the defense industry, highlighting those with high PE ratios and significant projected profit growth [42]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略快评】 科创金融组合拳 ——陆家嘴论坛点评 科技创新和产业创新融合发展，金融服务加力提速，政策重心或将进一步向新 质生产力倾斜。吴清指出当前金融服务科技创新的短板弱项主要体现在"三个 不完善"：一是适应创新规律的资本形成机制不完善。二是满足科技企业全生 命周期金融需求的产品服务体系不完善。三是对创新的激励约束机制不完善。 基于以上"三个不完善"，证监会从股权、债权、上市公司质量三个视角推动 金融服务创新。这也是针对近期党政要会加强科技创新部署的落地，4/30 习总 书记强调"十五五"时期，必须把因地制宜发展新质生产力摆在更加突出的战 略位置。5/7 国新办新闻发布会上，央行、金融监管总局、证监会分别从货币、 资本市场等角度强调了金融对科技创新的支持。以新质生产力为代表的科技创 新，尤其是人工智能等战略新兴产业，或将成为下一轮政策支持的重点方向。 股权：深化科创板改革"1+6"政策措施，重启未盈利企业适用科创板第五套 标准上市，培育壮大耐心资本、长期资本。吴清表示要推出科创板进一步深化 改革的"1+6"政策措施。"1"即在科创板设置科创成长层，重启未盈利企业 适用科创板第五套标准上 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [22]. Core Insights - As of Q1 2025, the accumulated fund scale of enterprise annuities reached 3.73 trillion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 2.38% from the end of 2024, although the growth rate has decreased by 1.2 percentage points [2][4]. - The newly disclosed three-year cumulative return rate for enterprise annuities stands at 7.46%, primarily driven by long-term investment behavior influenced by relevant policy guidance [4][10]. - The number of enterprises establishing annuities has increased to 168,200, a rise of 5.62% from the end of 2024, with the number of participating employees growing by 1.51% to 32.91 million [2][10]. Summary by Sections Fund Scale and Growth - The enterprise annuity fund scale reached 3.73 trillion as of Q1 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 2.38% [2]. - The number of enterprises with annuities increased to 168,200, marking a 5.62% rise from the previous year [2]. Cumulative Returns - The three-year cumulative return rate for enterprise annuities is 7.46%, with single plans showing a return of 7.42% and collective plans at 7.82% [5][10]. - Fixed income portfolios yielded a return of 10.54%, outperforming the average by 3.08 percentage points, while equity-inclusive portfolios returned 7.06%, slightly below the average [5]. Market Outlook - The enterprise annuity sector is expected to continue its growth trend, benefiting from a structural market favoring small-cap growth and technology stocks in Q1 2025 [10]. - The long-term assessment of returns is anticipated to drive investment behaviors towards a balanced approach between absolute and relative returns, leading to a "steady progress" investment style [10].