Group 1 - The report indicates that the credit bond market is expected to maintain a slightly bullish trend in July and the third quarter, driven by factors such as potential export weakness and the central bank's liquidity measures [2][10][11] - The report highlights the importance of selecting liquid credit bond issuers and maintaining trading flexibility, with specific attention to timely profit-taking opportunities [11][12] - The report suggests focusing on city investment bonds in regions with strong debt management capabilities, such as Shandong, Henan, and Guangxi, particularly in cities like Liuzhou, which is actively addressing its debt issues [3][12][15] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that addressing "involution" and resolving overcapacity issues are becoming key tasks for local governments, with expectations for more policies to guide and resolve these challenges [3][23][25] - The report notes that the financial bond market has seen significant movements, with credit spreads for certain bonds narrowing, indicating a need for cautious investment strategies [4][10] - The report discusses the potential for investment in high-quality enterprises and regions with strong economic fundamentals, particularly in provinces like Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, which are expected to have robust debt management capabilities [43][44][48]

行 华福证券 家用电器 2025 年 07 月 06 日 业 研 究 家用电器 关税豁免即将到期，关注出口链修复机会—— 25W27 周观点 投资要点： 关税豁免即将到期，关注出口链修复机会 行 业 定 期 报 告 关税豁免期将于 7 月 9 日结束，近期越南、柬埔寨已陆续与美国 达成贸易协议。关税政策陆续落地，出口链确定性增强，基本面、估 值均有望修复。此次越南关税整体符合预期，关税政策落地，短期下 单排产恢复正常，基本面有望逐步修复，而美国对转口贸易的严格管 控意味着国内企业需要提升海外本土化生产能力、完善原产地合规体 系，更加有利于海外产能布局完善的龙头企业，建议关注家电龙头海 尔智家、美的集团、海信家电、TCL 电子、海信视像，工具龙头巨星 科技、创科实业，纺服代工龙头华利集团、申洲国际、伟星股份，海 外产能布局完善的出口链企业春风动力、涛涛车业。 行情数据 本周家电板块涨跌幅+1.7%，其中白电/黑电/小家电/厨电板块涨跌 幅分别+2.5%/+0.2%/+0.8%/+0.5%。原材料价格方面，LME 铜、LME 铝环比上周分别-0.80%、+0.15%。 本周纺织服装板块涨跌幅+1.36%，其中纺织 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the potential of subcutaneous immunoglobulin (SCIG) as the next major product in the blood products sector, with Tian Tan Biologics positioned to be the first domestic manufacturer to market this product [3][4][15] - The global market size for SCIG is projected to reach approximately $4.9 billion in 2024, which is about half the size of the intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) market [3][19][26] - The report emphasizes the advantages of SCIG over IVIG, including better tolerability, lower incidence of adverse reactions, lower economic costs, higher patient satisfaction, and ease of self-administration [3][19][21] Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index increased by 3.6% during the week of June 30 to July 4, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.0 percentage points [3][36] - Year-to-date, the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index has risen by 10.8%, surpassing the CSI 300 Index by 9.6 percentage points [3][36] - Notable stock performances included Seer Medical (+51.55%), Guangsheng Tang (+48.64%), and Shenzhou Cell (+45.01%) [3][51] Focus on SCIG - SCIG is recognized as the third-largest segment in the global blood products market, with a projected size of $4.9 billion, representing 15.5% of the market [26][29] - The report forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.2% for the immunoglobulin market (IVIG + SCIG) from 2025 to 2034, with SCIG expected to be the fastest-growing segment [26][29] - Tian Tan Biologics is expected to gain a significant competitive advantage as it is on track to be the first company to launch SCIG in China, with its application for production submitted and under review [3][34] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on innovative drugs as a primary investment theme, with a recommendation to consider leading companies and those with potential catalysts in their development pipelines [4][5] - The recommended investment portfolio includes companies such as Kangfang Biologics, Xinda Biologics, and Tian Tan Biologics [4][5][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the export chain is recovering, and leading companies are expected to grow without issues. The recent trade agreement between the US and Vietnam is expected to have a controllable impact on tariffs, enhancing the competitive advantage of companies with established overseas production capacities [3][9] - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Xiangxin Home, Zhongxin Co., Zhejiang Natural, Yongyi Co., Jiayi Co., and Hars for potential investment opportunities [3][9] Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector is expected to stabilize as the industry adjusts to recent conditions. Companies like Oppein Home, Sophia, and Zhijia Home are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the improving industry landscape [6] - The report notes that the second quarter has seen a gradual recovery in factory orders, with many companies currently valued at historical lows, suggesting a good opportunity for investment [6] Paper and Packaging - As of July 4, 2025, prices for various paper products remain stable, with double glue paper at 5125 CNY/ton and copper plate paper at 5400 CNY/ton [6][47] - The report highlights that several paper companies have announced price increases for corrugated paper, indicating a positive trend in the sector [6] - Investment opportunities are suggested in companies like Nine Dragons and Sun Paper, which are well-positioned in the paper industry [6] Light Industry Consumption - The report emphasizes the growth potential of companies like Sturdy Medical and Morning Glory, which are expected to benefit from brand strength and product upgrades [6] - The entertainment products sector is also noted for its growth, with companies like Morning Glory expected to see a recovery in operations [6] Export Chain - The recent trade agreement between the US and Vietnam is expected to reduce risks for companies in the export chain, particularly those with global supply chain layouts [9] - Companies such as Zhongxin Co., Zhejiang Natural, and Xiangxin Home are recommended for their strong positions in the export market [9] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector is highlighted for its potential growth, particularly for companies that have established overseas production capabilities [9] - The report suggests focusing on companies like Shenzhou International and Huayi Group, which are well-integrated in their operations [9]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [81] Core Insights - Tesla's global sales in Q2 reached 384,122 units, a 13% decline from 443,956 units in the same period last year, marking the second consecutive quarter of decline [3][12] - The decline is attributed to delays in the launch of more affordable models, controversies surrounding CEO Elon Musk's political stance, and a significant drop in sales in the US market [3][12] - Tesla faces increasing competition from new models launched by General Motors, Volkswagen, BMW, BYD, and Xiaomi, while exploring potential in autonomous driving software and humanoid robots [3][13] - Xiaopeng Motors launched the new AI smart family SUV, Xiaopeng G7, with three versions priced between 195,800 and 225,800 yuan, featuring advanced AI capabilities and a long range of 702 km [4][14][15] Market Performance - From June 30 to July 4, the automotive sector increased by 0.1%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.5%, resulting in a 1.4 percentage point lag [18] - Year-to-date, the automotive sector has increased by 8.2%, ranking 8th among 31 sectors [18] Key Industry Data - In June, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.032 million units, a 15% year-on-year increase, while new energy vehicle retail sales were 1.071 million units, up 25% year-on-year [6][34] - Wholesale sales for passenger vehicles in June totaled 2.473 million units, a 14% increase year-on-year, with new energy vehicle wholesale sales at 1.259 million units, up 28% year-on-year [6][35] New Vehicle Highlights - Xiaopeng G7 features a powerful AI chip configuration, achieving an effective computing power of 2,250 TOPS, making it the highest globally [14][15] - The G7 aims to redefine the market for smart electric SUVs with its advanced AI capabilities and long-range performance [15]

Investment Rating - The report suggests an increase in allocation to coal-related stocks due to the rebound in coal prices and the overall health of coal companies' balance sheets [5][6]. Core Views - The price of thermal coal is approaching 600 RMB, leading to negative feedback on the supply side. The report notes a continued decrease in coal imports as of May, with global coal shipment volumes to China at 4.85 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 23.7% [5]. - The coal industry is undergoing a transformation driven by energy security and policy changes, indicating that coal may still be in a golden era. The supply of coal is expected to remain rigid due to strict capacity controls and increasing extraction difficulties [5]. - The report emphasizes that while macroeconomic conditions may temporarily affect coal demand, the rigid supply and rising costs will support coal prices, which are expected to maintain a volatile pattern [5]. Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - As of July 4, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 623 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 25.8% [3][30]. - The average daily production of thermal coal from 462 sample mines is 5.661 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.2% [45]. - The inventory index for thermal coal is at 194.3, showing a year-on-year decline [3][49]. Coking Coal - The price of coking coal at the Jing Tang Port remains at 1230 RMB/ton, unchanged week-on-week, with a year-on-year decrease of 41.7% [4][83]. - The average daily production of coking coal from 523 sample mines is 739,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.15% [82]. - The inventory of coking coal at independent coking plants is 716,500 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5.57% [82]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several investment opportunities in the coal sector, including companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [6]. - Companies benefiting from coal-electricity integration and those with production growth potential are also highlighted as attractive investment targets [6].

Employment Data Insights - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, an increase of 3,000 from May, marking the second-highest monthly gain of the year[3] - The unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%, down from a three-month plateau[3] - The average hourly wage growth slowed by 0.1 percentage points to 3.7% year-on-year, indicating a lack of strong upward pressure on wages[3] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 62.3%, the lowest level in 2023, reflecting a continued decrease in labor supply[3] - Government employment surged by 73,000 in June, the highest increase in 15 months, while private sector job growth showed signs of cooling[3] - Job additions in the education and healthcare sectors were 51,000 and 20,000, respectively, both lower than the previous month[3] Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Implications - The necessity for short-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has significantly decreased due to strong employment data[3] - Future inflation levels will be influenced by fiscal stimulus effects and tariff directions, potentially leading to a steeper inflation trajectory[3] - The passage of the "Big and Beautiful Act" aims to stabilize consumer demand and enhance domestic manufacturing, which could tighten the labor market[3] Risks and Considerations - The potential for the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts remains, as the labor market shows mixed signals[4] - The dollar index is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of the year, influenced by the evolving economic landscape[3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, TCL Technology [6][78]. Core Views - TCL Technology is positioned as a global leader in semiconductor display and photovoltaic sectors, with significant investments and acquisitions enhancing its competitive edge [2][10]. - The semiconductor display business is experiencing substantial revenue growth and profitability improvements, while the photovoltaic segment is expected to recover [4][59]. Summary by Sections 1. Semiconductor Display and Photovoltaic Leadership - TCL Technology focuses on core business development in semiconductor displays and renewable energy, aiming for global leadership [10]. - TCL Huaxing is a leading player in the semiconductor display market, with significant investments and production capacity [2][25]. 2. Semiconductor Display Business Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 1,043 billion yuan in 2024 for its semiconductor display business, marking a 25% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 62.3 billion yuan [4][19]. - TCL Huaxing ranks second globally in TV panel shipments, with a leading market share in large-size panels [25][29]. - The company is expanding its product offerings in mid-size and small-size displays, achieving significant market shares in various segments, including esports monitors and LTPS technology [3][38]. 3. Photovoltaic Business Outlook - TCL Zhonghuan, the photovoltaic arm, is the global leader in silicon wafer shipments, with a projected output of 125.8 GW in 2024, reflecting a 10.5% increase [59][71]. - The photovoltaic segment is expected to improve as industry conditions stabilize, with a revenue forecast of 284 billion yuan in 2024 [64][71]. 4. Financial Projections and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts revenues of 1,848.61 billion yuan, 2,017.89 billion yuan, and 2,192.17 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 61.57 billion yuan, 90.78 billion yuan, and 104.21 billion yuan [4][74]. - The company's valuation is considered low compared to peers, justifying the "Buy" rating based on projected earnings growth and market position [78].

Group 1 - The total IPO financing scale in the A-share market for June 2025 was 3.368 billion, a decrease of 65% month-on-month. The main board raised 640 million, while the Sci-Tech Innovation Board raised 2.497 billion [5][6][12] - A total of 3 new stocks were issued in June, representing a 63% decrease compared to the previous month [6][5] - As of the end of June, there were 50 approved but unissued IPO projects across all A-share sectors, with a total proposed fundraising scale of 49.36 billion. The ChiNext accounted for 28% (14 companies), while the main board and Sci-Tech Innovation Board accounted for 34% and 6% respectively [12][12] Group 2 - The average offline subscription limit for new stocks in the past three months was mostly in the range of 100 million to 200 million for the main board and ChiNext, while the Sci-Tech Innovation Board had limits mostly in the range of 500 million to 1 billion [13][13] - In June, the number of offline inquiry objects for the main board, ChiNext, and Sci-Tech Innovation Board reached 509, 0, and 197 respectively, with a month-on-month decrease of 73% and 100% for the main board and ChiNext [17][17] - The average winning rate for A/B class accounts on the main board in June was 0.0104% and 0.0094%, down 24% and 28% month-on-month respectively [18][18] Group 3 - The average first-day increase for new stocks on the main board in June was 286% [30][30] - The contribution of new stocks to funds was measured, with funds in the 100 million to 200 million range contributing +0.188% and those in the 200 million to 300 million range contributing +0.129%. The annualized return for funds of 800 million was 0.368% [32][32] - In June 2025, a total of 3,132 funds participated in new stock subscriptions, with a total scale of 6.05 trillion. The most numerous were equity mixed funds, with 1,189 funds, followed by flexible allocation funds with 595 funds [35][35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main tone of "moderately loose monetary policy" remains unchanged, and stabilizing growth is still the central bank's primary short - term goal. If economic growth shows no improvement and faces more pressure, a new round of broad monetary policy may be launched [1]. - In July, the large - scale supply of government bonds and tax - payment factors will significantly interfere with the capital market. However, the central bank's support for the capital market is expected to continue, with overnight and 7 - day capital interest rates likely to remain stable [1]. - The supply - demand structure of inter - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) will further improve in July, with the maturity scale of CDs decreasing and the interest rate having room to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Current Situation and Future Concerns - From June 23 to June 27, the central bank made substantial net injections to support cross - quarter liquidity, leading to a divergence in capital prices. Overnight capital interest rates were stable, while 7 - day rates rose significantly, and the liquidity stratification phenomenon was obvious [5]. - The second - quarter monetary policy committee meeting changed the wording, but it doesn't rule out the possibility of broad monetary policy in the third quarter. If the economy doesn't improve, new policies may be introduced [5]. - In July, large government bond supply and tax - payment factors will affect the capital market, but the central bank's support is expected to continue. The overnight capital interest rate may fluctuate around the policy rate, and the 7 - day rate may return to around 1.5% [6]. - It is estimated that in July 2025, government bond issuance will be 2.61 - 2.86 trillion yuan, with net financing of 1.45 - 1.70 trillion yuan, slightly higher than in June. The supply of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds may increase, and new local government special bonds are expected to be the main type in the third quarter [6]. - In July, MLF and buy - out repurchase maturities total 1.5 trillion yuan, more than in June. The central bank's operation method has enhanced its control over medium - and long - term liquidity [10]. - Thanks to the central bank's support, in June, CDs maintained high - volume issuance with stable or decreasing prices. In July, the supply - demand structure of CDs will improve, and the interest rate has room to decline [10]. 3.2 Money Market Interest Rate Tracking - From June 23 to June 27, overnight capital interest rates were stable (DR001 around 1.37%, R001 between 1.44% - 1.46%), while 7 - day rates rose (DR007 from 1.51% to 1.70%, R007 from 1.56% to 1.92%), and the liquidity stratification was obvious [13]. - During this period, the bank's capital lending scale increased, the money fund's lending scale decreased, and the bond market leverage ratio continued to rise [17]. - From June 23 to June 27, bill interest rates first decreased and then increased, with the 3M national - share discount rate and half - year national - share transfer discount rate showing corresponding changes [22]. 3.3 Open Market Operation Tracking - As of June 27, the central bank's total balance of open - market operations was 1168.85 billion yuan, including 202.75 billion yuan in pledged repurchase, 480 billion yuan in buy - out repurchase, and 515 billion yuan in MLF [23]. - From June 23 to June 27, the central bank's net injection in open - market operations was 126.72 billion yuan, with 106.72 billion yuan in pledged repurchase. In June, buy - out repurchase and MLF maturities and net injections were as expected. From June 30 to July 4, pledged repurchase maturities reached 202.75 billion yuan [27]. 3.4 Government Bond Tracking 3.4.1 Government Bond Issuance - From June 23 to June 27, treasury bond issuance was 11.1 billion yuan, and net financing was 11.1 billion yuan; local bond issuance was 64.164 billion yuan, with net financing of 56.0393 billion yuan [33]. - It is estimated that from June 30 to July 4, treasury bond issuance will be 0 yuan, with net financing of - 8.015 billion yuan; local bond issuance will be 7.2139 billion yuan, with net financing of 2.1676 billion yuan [33]. 3.4.2 Government Bond Payment - From June 23 to June 27, government bond net payment was 78.981 billion yuan, including 33.1 billion yuan for treasury bonds and 45.881 billion yuan for local bonds. It is estimated that from June 30 to July 4, the net payment will be - 0.594 billion yuan [39]. 3.5 Inter - bank Certificate of Deposit Tracking 3.5.1 Primary Market of Inter - bank CDs - From June 23 to June 27, inter - bank CD issuance was 72.64 billion yuan, with net financing of - 41.15 billion yuan. The maturity scale from June 30 to July 4 was 27.67 billion yuan. By bank type, city commercial banks had the highest issuance; by term type, 3M CDs had the highest issuance [42]. - The overall issuance success rate was 94%. State - owned banks and other banks had a 100% success rate, and 3M CDs had a 95% success rate. The issuance interest rates of all types of banks and terms decreased [42][43]. 3.5.2 Secondary Market of Inter - bank CDs - From June 23 to June 27, despite the tightened cross - quarter liquidity, the yields of secondary - market CDs of all terms increased slightly, and the yield curve was partially inverted [60]. 3.6 Excess Reserve Ratio Tracking - The estimated excess reserve ratio at the end of May 2025 was 0.52%. From June 23 to June 27, the central bank's net injection in open - market operations was 126.72 billion yuan, and government bond net payment was 78.981 billion yuan, increasing the excess reserve scale by 47.739 billion yuan [64].