Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the mechanical equipment and specialized equipment sectors [5]. Core Insights - The global nuclear fusion industry is accelerating, with significant advancements expected in the coming years, particularly with the BEST project set to demonstrate fusion energy generation [17][21]. - Over 70% of surveyed fusion companies believe that commercial applications of fusion energy can be achieved between 2031 and 2040, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2][25]. - The Tokamak technology is considered the most mature among various fusion technology paths and is expected to lead the commercialization of fusion energy [18][34]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The nuclear fusion industry is experiencing robust growth, driven by policy support and technological advancements. Countries like the US, China, Europe, and Japan have established detailed strategic plans for fusion development [17][21]. - The BEST project in China is expected to be completed by 2027 and will be the first to demonstrate fusion energy generation, marking a significant milestone for China's fusion energy development [29][30]. Market Potential - The market for Tokamak devices is projected to exceed 90 billion yuan, with high-value components such as magnetic coils, first wall components, and vacuum parts being key beneficiaries [19][4]. - As of April 2025, there are 80 Tokamak devices globally, with 57 operational and 23 under construction, indicating a growing demand for fusion experimental reactors [19][4]. Technological Advancements - The Tokamak device operates by creating a closed helical magnetic field to confine high-temperature plasma, which is essential for achieving fusion reactions. The EAST device in China has already achieved a plasma confinement time of 403 seconds [18][34]. - The report highlights that advancements in high-temperature superconductors will enhance plasma stability and contribute to the commercialization of Tokamak technology [18][34]. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes that the nuclear fusion sector is on a path to commercialization, with ongoing projects and technological innovations paving the way for practical applications of fusion energy [20][21]. - The anticipated completion of the ITER project by 2025 will further solidify the foundation for future fusion energy developments [21][22].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Factors influencing the spread of secondary and perpetual bonds (hereinafter referred to as "two - perpetual bonds") include interest rate fluctuations, market supply - demand, credit risk, and regulatory policy changes. In the past two years, the unexpected risks and non - redemption events of two - perpetual bonds have decreased, the credit environment has been relatively stable, and the impact of credit risk has significantly declined. After the contraction of urban investment bond supply in 2023, institutions such as funds and wealth management products quickly compressed the grade and term spreads of two - perpetual bonds to low levels. Therefore, subsequent pricing of two - perpetual bonds focuses more on interest rate fluctuations and market supply - demand changes. This year, affected by the tight - then - loose funds, rising - then - falling interest rates, and decreasing - then - increasing non - bank allocation demand, the spread of two - perpetual bonds has generally risen first and then fallen. Looking ahead, with interest rate fluctuations, deposit rate cuts, and incremental non - bank demand, there are still opportunities for the spread of two - perpetual bonds to narrow. It is recommended that institutions choose medium - to - short - duration sinking into city and rural commercial bank bonds for coupon income or medium - to - high - grade bonds with a duration of 3 - 5 years, operate with interest rate bands, and allocate when the spread is high [1]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Two - part Classification of Two - perpetual Bond Spreads - The spread of two - perpetual bonds can be decomposed into liquidity premium and credit risk premium. The liquidity premium reflects the liquidity compensation for the weaker secondary liquidity of credit bonds compared to interest - rate bonds, and the credit risk premium reflects the compensation for credit default risk. For two - perpetual bonds, due to special terms such as write - down, subordination, and redemption, and their repayment order being lower than that of general commercial financial bonds, there is also a variety premium, which is part of the credit risk premium. Institutional behavior also has an increasing impact on market valuation. Asset shortages intensify institutional exploration of two - perpetual bonds, reducing the liquidity premium, while redemption disturbances increase the adjustment pressure on two - perpetual bonds. In case of unexpected credit risk events, institutional risk - aversion also increases the credit risk premium of two - perpetual bonds [11]. - The liquidity premium is mainly affected by interest rate disturbances, market supply - demand, etc. Since 2021, with increased exploration of varieties, high - grade two - perpetual bonds have become credit products with good liquidity and are obvious amplifiers of interest rate fluctuations. The variety spread (liquidity premium) is significantly affected by interest rate fluctuations, and is also influenced by unexpected credit risk events, regulatory policies (such as the new capital regulations increasing the risk weight of two - perpetual bonds), and market supply - demand (asset shortages and institutional redemptions). In a strong market, the spread generally compresses; in a weak market, it widens. When interest rates fluctuate within a narrow range, whether two - perpetual bonds perform better than interest - rate bonds depends on factors such as the spread size and the strength of non - bank allocation demand [2][16]. - The credit risk premium is mainly affected by risk events, and market supply - demand also increases fluctuations. The grade spread (credit risk premium) is mainly affected by bank risk events and market supply - demand. The widening of the grade spread is often driven by bank risk events, such as non - redemptions of small and medium - sized banks. Since 2022, the number of non - redemptions has declined. The core of the two - perpetual bond sinking market lies in asset shortages, while short - term fluctuations are more affected by interest rate disturbances. However, the sinking strategy also has obvious valuation risks, and low - grade two - perpetual bonds often adjust more slowly and with a larger amplitude in market adjustments [25][32]. - The term spread is mainly affected by the money market, supply - demand, institutional behavior, and interest rate fluctuations. The short - end is more sensitive to the money market and market changes. When the market changes rapidly, the short - end moves first, causing the term spread to change passively in the opposite direction. The long - end is often the choice for institutions to extend the duration to seek returns after the market has been strong for a long time. Supply - demand and institutional behavior also play a role. When liquidity is loose and high - quality assets are scarce, institutions extend the duration to seek returns, and the medium - and long - term spreads are actively compressed. There is also a grade differentiation, where high - grade bonds have stronger liquidity, and their term spread fluctuations are more closely linked to interest rates, while low - grade bonds have more obvious liquidity stratification, with a larger spread compression amplitude during asset shortages but a slower recovery during adjustments [41][43]. 3.2 Changes in the Supply - Demand Relationship of Two - perpetual Bonds and Their Impact on Spreads - In terms of supply, the issuance of bank secondary capital bonds started in 2013, and the issuance of bank perpetual bonds started in 2019. Since 2020, banks' demand for capital replenishment through issuing two - perpetual bonds has significantly increased. In 2021, the net financing of two - perpetual bonds decreased as maturities increased. In 2022 and 2023, the net financing decreased due to the wealth management redemption wave. In 2024, the supply of two - perpetual bonds increased significantly, and the net financing of city and rural commercial bank two - perpetual bonds reached a record high. As of now in 2025, the issuance of bank two - perpetual bonds has slowed down, mainly related to the implementation of a 500 - billion - yuan capital injection for large - scale banks this year, which partially replaces the demand for two - perpetual bonds, and the general capital replenishment demand and unstable institutional allocation demand this year [53]. - In terms of demand, funds and wealth management products have been major players in the marginal pricing of two - perpetual bonds since 2021. For example, the redemption wave at the end of 2022 widened the spread significantly, while the under - allocation in 2023 - 2024 led to a comprehensive compression of variety, grade, and term spreads. Insurance is a long - term investor, increasing its holdings during market adjustments. Banks are mainly sellers in the secondary market, and rural commercial banks are the main force in increasing the allocation of secondary capital bonds [3][59]. 3.3 Historical Review of Two - perpetual Bond Spreads - **2019**: In January - April, policy relaxation on insurance investment in secondary capital bonds narrowed the spread. In May - July, the takeover of Baoshang Bank widened the spread. In August - October, the spread narrowed as the impact of the Baoshang Bank event eased and interest rates fluctuated. In November - December, non - redemptions by some banks widened the spread. The term spread was affected by the Baoshang Bank event and non - redemption risks, and the grade spread was also affected by the event and non - redemptions [81][82]. - **2020**: In January - February, the spread widened passively due to the epidemic and loose monetary policy. In March - April, non - redemptions and concerns about bank operations widened the spread. In May - July, the spread narrowed as the epidemic improved and interest rates rose. In August - October, the spread widened due to reduced demand and increased supply. In November - December, credit events such as the Yongmei default and the full write - down of Baoshang Bank's secondary capital bonds widened the spread significantly. The term spread first widened, then narrowed, and then fluctuated [93][94][97]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - Affected by uncertainties such as tariff negotiations, interest - rate bonds may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range in the second quarter. In terms of supply, the supply may increase quarter - on - quarter in the second quarter due to increased maturities, but the net financing is unlikely to increase significantly throughout the year. On the demand side, since April, the scale of wealth management products and funds has increased. Coupled with the low credit supply in May and interest rate fluctuations, there is still demand for coupon income from two - perpetual bonds. The probability of unexpected defaults this year is low. In terms of valuation comparison, the adjusted short - end yield of two - perpetual bonds is better than that of corporate credit bonds, and the absolute price and relative spread of medium - to - high - grade 3 - 5 - year bonds are relatively high. Therefore, in a volatile market with slightly better credit demand than interest - rate demand, it is recommended that institutions choose medium - to - short - duration sinking into city and rural commercial bank bonds for coupon income or medium - to - high - grade bonds with a duration of 3 - 5 years, operate with interest rate bands, and allocate when the spread is high [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 5.43 [9][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 16.3 billion for 2HFY25, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.0%, which exceeded the consensus expectation of 12.6%. However, the adjusted net profit of RMB 970 million was below the expected RMB 1.1 billion, indicating that future profit growth will rely on organic business growth as the impact of advertising business integration diminishes [1][2]. - The management has set a revenue growth target of 5-10% for FY26, with an adjusted net profit growth target of 10-20%. The focus will be on enhancing merchant empowerment and user experience in core businesses while exploring new growth avenues in innovative sectors like medical AI [4][5]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to reach RMB 33.6 billion in FY26, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.9%. The adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 2.2 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 17.6% [14][16]. - The adjusted net profit margin is forecasted to improve to 6.8% in FY26, up from previous estimates, indicating better operational efficiency [14][15]. Business Segments Performance - The self-operated business generated RMB 14 billion in revenue for 2HFY25, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, outperforming the consensus estimate of 9.1%. The e-commerce platform business saw revenue of RMB 1.9 billion, growing 43.6% year-on-year, although it fell short of the expected 57.7% growth [2][3]. - The management highlighted that the integration of advertising business has enhanced service capabilities for platform merchants, leading to improved operational returns and competitiveness in the pharmaceutical e-commerce sector [2][3]. Valuation and Market Position - The company is assigned a target non-IFRS PE of 35x for FY26, which is a premium compared to the average of 16.2x for comparable companies, reflecting the company's ongoing market share acquisition and potential in medical AI [5][16]. - The target price has been revised to HKD 5.43 from a previous value of HKD 4.4, indicating a positive outlook based on the company's growth trajectory and market positioning [5][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 40.47 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 2.723 billion for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, and an adjusted EBITDA of RMB 1.324 billion, up 16.1%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1]. - The growth in adjusted EBITDA is attributed to the delivery of backlog orders and the rapid advancement of new orders, alongside the completion of the first ABS project, which confirmed asset disposal gains of RMB 1.057 billion [1]. - The report highlights the potential for valuation improvement and performance enhancement driven by the growth in AI inference demand as domestic AI applications flourish [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - As of Q1 2025, the company operated in an area of 610,685 square meters, with an IT capacity of approximately 1,313 MW, and a cabinet utilization rate of 75.7%, reflecting a 1.9 percentage point increase [2]. - The adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 48.6%, primarily due to a decrease in operating costs [2]. - The company expects total revenue for 2025 to be between RMB 11.29 billion and RMB 11.59 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.4% to 12.3% [3]. Debt and Leverage - The net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio decreased to 6.6 times in Q1 2025 from 7.7 times in Q1 2024, indicating a gradual reduction in leverage following the completion of the ABS project [3]. - The company plans to actively promote the issuance of public REITs, which is expected to further lower leverage and reduce interest expenses, thereby improving performance [3]. Long-term Outlook - The report maintains profit forecasts, projecting adjusted EBITDA for 2025 to be between RMB 5.19 billion and RMB 5.39 billion, with expected growth rates of 6.4% to 10.5% [4]. - The SOTP valuation method was used, adjusting the 2025 EV/EBITDA target valuation from 15 times to 16 times for domestic operations, reflecting improved cash flow from increased cabinet utilization and REIT projects [4]. - The target price of HKD 40.47 per share is based on a total equity value of RMB 57.562 billion, considering both domestic and international business valuations [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the technology sector [4] Core Insights - Sovereign AI investments are temporarily compensating for the sales restrictions in the Chinese market, but the slow development of AI applications poses a significant risk to the entire industry chain [1] - The challenge for the Taiwanese industry chain is to meet U.S. government requirements for domestic manufacturing while ensuring technological upgrades do not slow down [2] - NVLink Fusion, a new technology announced by NVIDIA, may further strengthen its position in the industry [3] Summary by Sections Sovereign AI Investment - Following the U.S. Department of Commerce's announcement to revoke the AI diffusion rules, NVIDIA and the global computing industry saw a significant rebound in stock prices. This regulatory adjustment opens up sales opportunities for AI chips in major Middle Eastern countries, potentially compensating for the estimated $5.5 billion loss from restricted sales to China. However, investors express concerns over the lack of substantial applications for generative AI to support over $300 billion in annual capital expenditures [1] U.S. Manufacturing Challenges - Taiwan hosts a complete data center industry chain, including TSMC and Hon Hai. The primary challenge is balancing the need for technological upgrades every two years with the U.S. government's domestic manufacturing requirements. TSMC has committed to investing $165 billion in six fabs in the U.S., while Hon Hai has pledged to produce servers domestically. Investors are worried about the impact of this transition on profitability [2] NVLink Fusion Technology - NVIDIA has introduced NVLink Fusion, which allows third-party chip companies to connect their ASIC and CPU chips to NVIDIA's ecosystem. Eight companies, including MediaTek and Qualcomm, have announced support for this technology. NVLink Fusion is seen as a solution for ASIC integration in AI chips, potentially reinforcing NVIDIA's industry position [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for both US and Hong Kong stocks [7]. Core Views - The company's 1Q25 performance met expectations with revenue of 46.9 billion RMB, reflecting a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4.7% and a year-over-year increase of 12.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 18.0 billion RMB, which was slightly below the previous quarter but showed a significant year-over-year increase of 54.6% [1][4]. - The company is expected to maintain a cautious lending strategy amid industry changes, with a projected moderate growth in loan volume for 2025 [2][3]. - The risk indicators have shown slight fluctuations but remain at healthy levels, with a C-M2 ratio of 0.60% and a provisioning coverage ratio of 666% [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 1Q25 revenue was 46.9 billion RMB, with a net profit of 18.0 billion RMB, aligning with the company's guidance [1]. - Loan volume for 1Q25 was 889 billion RMB, showing a slight quarter-over-quarter decline of 1.1% but a year-over-year increase of 15.8% [2]. Risk Indicators - The C-M2 ratio increased to 0.60%, while the first-day overdue rate rose to 5.0%. However, these levels are still considered healthy compared to historical averages [3]. - The provisioning coverage ratio improved to 666%, indicating strong profit quality [3]. Profit Forecast - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 71 billion RMB, 77 billion RMB, and 82 billion RMB respectively, with target prices set at 55.6 USD and 220.9 HKD [4][11]. Valuation Methods - The target prices are derived from both PE and DCF valuation methods, with a PE of 6.5x for 2025E [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electric power equipment and new energy sector [6] Core Viewpoints - The global electrification trend is accelerating, with domestic battery manufacturers establishing significant advantages in the new energy vehicle and energy storage markets [1][15] - Domestic battery manufacturers are rapidly increasing their global market share, with companies like CATL and BYD leading the way [2][20] - The report highlights the competitive edge of domestic lithium iron phosphate batteries and the ongoing catch-up in solid-state battery commercialization compared to overseas counterparts [3][18] - Overseas battery manufacturers are heavily reliant on the Chinese supply chain, and potential declines in subsidies may pressure their profitability [4][34] - Despite concerns over tightening trade policies, the report suggests that the impact on domestic battery manufacturers' export shares may be limited [5][16] Summary by Sections Global Market Dynamics - Domestic battery manufacturers are expanding globally, with CATL's overseas market share rising from 14.0% in 2021 to 27.0% in 2024, surpassing LG [24] - BYD's overseas market share has also increased significantly, from 0.4% in 2021 to 4.1% in 2024 [24] Competitive Landscape - The report notes that domestic battery manufacturers have a higher degree of vertical integration in the lithium battery supply chain, allowing them to replace traditional joint venture brands rapidly [2][15] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for CATL and BYD's power battery installations from 2021 to 2024 is projected at 77.7% and 103.2%, respectively, outpacing overseas manufacturers [2][18] Technological Advancements - Domestic manufacturers are expected to maintain their lead in lithium iron phosphate technology, while overseas manufacturers are still ramping up production [3][30] - The report emphasizes the importance of solid-state battery technology, with domestic firms potentially narrowing the technological gap through innovative approaches [3][18] Financial Performance - CATL's operating profit margin is higher than that of its overseas counterparts, and its conservative financial practices provide additional room for profit release [4][34] - The report indicates that CATL's revenue reached 362.01 billion yuan, maintaining its position as the leading global battery manufacturer [34] Future Outlook - The report is optimistic about the continued global expansion of domestic battery manufacturers, particularly CATL, which is expected to further increase its market share [1][15] - The ongoing electrification revolution is anticipated to sustain high demand growth for lithium batteries, supported by the expansion of electrochemical energy storage and new applications [14][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for both US and Hong Kong stocks [7]. Core Views - The company's 1Q25 performance met expectations with revenue of 46.9 billion RMB, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.7% and a year-on-year increase of 12.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 18.0 billion RMB, which was slightly below the previous quarter but showed a significant year-on-year increase of 54.6% [1][4]. - The company is expected to maintain a cautious lending strategy, with a projected moderate growth in loan volume for 2025, supported by high-quality earnings and substantial shareholder returns [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 1Q25 loan volume was 889 billion RMB, showing a slight quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.1% but a year-on-year increase of 15.8%. The loan balance reached 1,403 billion RMB, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.4% and a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [2]. - The net profit take rate for 1Q25 was 5.2%, down from 5.9% in the previous quarter, indicating a potential impact on short-term profitability [3]. Risk Indicators - The C-M2 ratio increased to 0.60% in 1Q25 from 0.57% in 4Q24, while the first-day overdue rate rose to 5.0%. However, these levels remain healthy compared to historical averages [3]. - The provision coverage ratio improved to 666% from 617% in the previous quarter, indicating strong earnings quality [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been slightly adjusted to 71 billion RMB, 77 billion RMB, and 82 billion RMB respectively, with target prices maintained at 55.6 USD for US stocks and 220.9 HKD for Hong Kong stocks [4][8].

港股上市，看好全球市场估值修复 | 华泰研究 | | | 动态点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 5 月 | 20 日│中国内地 | 新能源及动力系统 | 证券研究报告 宁德时代 (300750 CH) 宁德时代于 5 月 20 日在香港联合交易所主板挂牌上市，成为国内首家同时 在 A 股和 H 股上市的动力电池公司。港股上市有助于公司海外产能扩张、 国际业务拓展等，我们看好公司加速全球化布局，不断提升全球市场竞争力。 维持买入评级。 5 月 20 日登陆港交所，加速全球市场布局 宁德时代于 5 月 20 日在港股上市，定价每股 263 港元，对标 A 股 5 月 16 日（发行价格公告日）收盘价 259.36 元折价率约 6.7%；此次发售股份规模 为 1.36 亿股，发行比例低于 5%（约 3%），募集资金约 45 亿美元，为今年 以来全球最大 IPO。公司推进港股上市主要系为进一步推动全球化战略布 局，打造国际化资本运作平台，提高综合竞争力。 上市速度/折价率/孖展倍数亮眼，基石权重高结构多样化 公司在 5 月 6 日通过聆讯的 2 周后完成上市，折价率约 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 0.75 [8][9]. Core Insights - The company's FY25 revenue reached RMB 6.702 billion, a 33% increase year-on-year, exceeding expectations by 8% due to strong performance from the ticketing platform and IP derivatives. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 364 million, a 27.7% increase but below the expected RMB 631 million due to an investment impairment of RMB 428 million [1][5]. - The ticketing platform, DaMai, showed significant growth with FY25 revenue of RMB 2.057 billion, a remarkable 236% increase, driven by the overall recovery of the performance market and the integration of the platform [2]. - The film-related segment saw a decline in revenue to RMB 2.712 billion, down 10%, primarily due to underperforming film projects and a weak overall film industry in 2024. The company has a substantial pipeline with 40 films and 20 series in reserve [3]. - The IP derivatives business reported revenue of RMB 1.433 billion, a 73% increase, attributed to a significant rise in retail sales of licensed IP products, with the IP matrix expanding to include several high-profile global IPs [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY25 revenue was RMB 6.702 billion, up 33% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 364 million, reflecting a 27.7% increase. Adjusted EBITA was RMB 809 million, a 61% increase [1][5]. - Revenue projections for FY26-28 are set at RMB 7.236 billion, RMB 8.307 billion, and RMB 9.342 billion, respectively, with net profits expected to reach RMB 865 million, RMB 1.081 billion, and RMB 1.255 billion [7][19]. Business Segments - DaMai's ticketing revenue for FY25 was RMB 2.057 billion, with a segment performance increase of 339% [2]. - The film-related segment's revenue was RMB 2.712 billion, down 10%, with a significant drop in segment profit to RMB 73 million, down 91% [3]. - The IP derivatives segment generated RMB 1.433 billion in revenue, a 73% increase, with a segment profit of RMB 380 million, up 75% [4]. Valuation and Forecast - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 23X for FY26, with a target price of HKD 0.75, reflecting an increase from the previous target of HKD 0.65 [5][8].