证券研究报告 小马智行 (PONY US) Robotaxi 规模商业化初见成效 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 5 月 | 21 日│美国 | 计算机应用 | 小马智行公布 25Q1 业绩：总营收 1398 万美元，同比+12%；毛利润 232 万美元，毛利率达 16.6%，同比-4.4 pcts；Non-GAAP 净亏损为 2837 万美 元，对比 24Q1 净亏损为 2566 万美元。业绩当天收盘股价涨约 6%，主要 系：1）Robotaxi 服务收入同比+200%，一线城市面向公众的收费运营收入 同比+800%，规模化运营已初见成效；2）年底 Robotaxi 车队规模或将达 千台，或因车企出货节奏加快；3）此前于 5/14 管理层已宣布延长股份锁定 期。公司选择模拟仿真+强化学习打造 L4 无人驾驶系统，与比亚迪/蔚小理/ 特斯拉等车企定位模仿学习和 L2 辅助驾驶存在根本差异。重申"买入"。 Robotaxi 收费运营驱动收入增长，第七代平台 BOM 成本下降约 70% 目标价维持 21 美元，对应 DCF 退出倍数 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the inverter industry, specifically recommending stocks such as 德业股份 (DeYee), 上能电气 (Sungrow), and 阳光电源 (Sungrow Power) [6][50]. Core Insights - The inverter export value in April 2025 reached 58.2 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 28.0%, driven by seasonal demand and accelerated overseas storage construction [10]. - The demand for inverters is expected to grow steadily in the long term due to factors such as power outages, rising electricity prices, and increased installations of wind and solar energy [10][49]. - The report highlights significant month-on-month growth in exports to Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and South America, indicating a robust demand across these regions [12][30][36][40]. Summary by Sections China - In April 2025, China's inverter export value was 58.2 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 28.0% and a total of 452.92 million units exported, reflecting a 21.4% increase [10]. - The average export price per unit rose to 1284 yuan, a 5.5% increase from the previous month [10]. Europe - Exports to Europe in April 2025 reached 26.46 billion, marking a 49.2% month-on-month increase, primarily due to seasonal factors and intensified power outages [12]. - The report notes significant demand in Germany and mentions large-scale power outages in Spain, Portugal, and southern France, highlighting the urgent need for reliable energy solutions [12]. Asia - Exports to Pakistan in April 2025 amounted to 3.58 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 25.2%, driven by worsening power supply issues [30]. - Southeast Asia saw exports of 5.11 billion, with the Philippines experiencing a notable 74.9% increase in exports due to severe power supply instability [30]. Middle East - Exports to Iraq reached 0.63 billion in April 2025, a staggering 110% increase, driven by ongoing power crises and the introduction of low-interest loans to stimulate storage demand [36]. - Exports to the UAE also increased significantly, reaching 1.66 billion, primarily due to large project shipments [36]. South America - Exports to Brazil in April 2025 were 3.04 billion, reflecting a 13% month-on-month increase, supported by the expansion of renewable energy installations [40]. - Exports to Chile reached 0.16 billion, with a 28.5% increase, driven by new wind energy development plans [42]. Oceania - Exports to Australia in April 2025 were 1.28 billion, with a slight increase of 1.6%, as the country continues to prioritize renewable energy in its policy agenda [46]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends 德业股份 (DeYee) with a target price of 129.15, 上能电气 (Sungrow) with a target price of 34.00, and 阳光电源 (Sungrow Power) with a target price of 92.80, all rated as "Buy" [9][50].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of $12.00 [7][8]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 performance showed a net profit of 750 million RMB, exceeding Bloomberg's expectation of 600 million RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 41.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.7% [1][4]. - Loan quality has slightly improved, with the first-day overdue rate decreasing to 4.6% and the annualized net profit take rate increasing by 20 basis points to 4.1% [3][4]. - The company maintains a cautious operational approach, with a focus on improving loan quality and increasing the proportion of light capital business, which is expected to drive profit growth in the short term [1][2]. Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance - The company reported a net profit of 750 million RMB, which is better than expected, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.7% and a year-on-year increase of 41.4% [1]. - The overdue rate decreased by 10 basis points to 4.6%, indicating improved loan quality [1][3]. - The total loan amount for Q1 2025 was 52.1 billion RMB, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.4% [2]. Loan Quality and Capital Structure - The first-day overdue rate improved to 4.6%, and the 30-day repayment rate remained stable at 89% [3]. - The light capital business's balance proportion increased to 43.0%, which is expected to enhance profit margins due to the absence of income and provision mismatches [2][3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to 3.22 billion RMB, 3.91 billion RMB, and 4.02 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a positive outlook [4][6]. - The target price remains at $12.00 based on DCF valuation methodology [4][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of $19.01 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company's total revenue for Q1 2025 was 26.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 5.0%, which is in line with the consensus estimate of -4.5%. The decline is attributed to a high base from the previous year and ongoing recovery in consumer sentiment [1]. - Non-GAAP net profit for Q1 2025 was 2.3 billion RMB, corresponding to a non-GAAP net profit margin of 8.8%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, but better than the consensus estimate of 8.5%. This is attributed to disciplined marketing expense management [1]. - The company expects revenue growth to gradually recover to positive year-on-year growth in the second half of 2025 [1]. Revenue and User Metrics - The total GMV for Q1 2025 was 52.4 billion RMB, flat year-on-year. Product revenue was 24.3 billion RMB, accounting for 92.5% of total revenue, with a year-on-year decline of 6.0% [2]. - Active customers numbered 41.3 million, down 4.2% year-on-year. However, the number of Super VIP (SVIP) members continued to grow at a double-digit rate year-on-year, contributing 51% of the online net GMV in Q1 2025 [2]. Management Guidance - The management indicated that revenue growth may turn positive year-on-year in Q3 or Q4 of 2025, with profit margins expected to remain relatively stable throughout the year [3]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 23.2%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, aligning with consensus expectations [3]. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to maintain shareholder returns totaling no less than 75% of the non-GAAP net profit for 2024, estimated at approximately 6.7 billion RMB. As of May 20, 2025, the company had completed $250 million in annual dividends and $150 million in stock buybacks, equivalent to about 2.9 billion RMB [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted downwards by 1.4%, 1.3%, and 1.5% to 8.9 billion RMB, 9.3 billion RMB, and 9.6 billion RMB, respectively, due to slower-than-expected revenue growth recovery [5][25]. - The target PE for 2025 is set at 8x, which is at a discount compared to the average of comparable companies at 14.1x, primarily due to the company's lower revenue growth expectations [5][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $33.00 [8][9] Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 70.03 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 23.6%, exceeding the forecast of 69.17 billion RMB. Adjusted net profit was 3.63 billion RMB, surpassing the expected 2.59 billion RMB, driven by the gradual recognition of deferred revenue from "Three Strategies" and stable growth in advertising revenue [1][2][4] - User engagement has significantly increased, with daily average usage time reaching a historical high of 108 minutes and daily active users (DAU) at 107 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. The number of official members grew by 12% to 264 million [2][3] - The gaming revenue for Q1 2025 was 17.31 billion RMB, a 76.1% year-on-year increase, slightly exceeding market expectations. The company anticipates continued high growth in H1 2025, supported by upcoming events and new game releases [3][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved a gross margin of 36.3% in Q1 2025, an increase of 8 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to high growth in gaming and advertising businesses. The operating profit for Q1 2025 was 3.42 billion RMB, exceeding the forecast of 2.2 billion RMB [4][5] - The report projects revenues of 305.7 billion RMB, 336.1 billion RMB, and 363.2 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjusted net profits of 19.99 billion RMB, 26 billion RMB, and 31.83 billion RMB for the same years [5][15] User Engagement and Advertising - The platform's user engagement metrics improved significantly, with a notable increase in the number of creators with over one million followers, growing by 20%. Advertising revenue for Q1 2025 was 19.98 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 19.7% [2][3] - The company expects advertising revenue for 2025 to reach 97.67 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19% [2][5] Valuation and Market Position - The company employs a segment-based price-to-sales (PS) valuation method, resulting in a target market value of 101.28 billion RMB, corresponding to a target price of $33.00, based on a PS ratio of 3.3x for 2025 [5][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of $259.30 [8][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $1.58 billion for Q4 FY25, which is a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, outperforming the consensus estimate of 12.1% [1]. - The GAAP net loss was $3.7 billion, which was worse than the consensus estimate of a $0.2 billion loss, primarily due to a one-time goodwill impairment of $3.6 billion [1]. - The company expects limited future impairments as the total goodwill value decreased from $4.43 billion at the end of FY24 to $1.06 billion at the end of FY25 [1]. - The release of the second trailer for GTA VI on May 6 received over 475 million views within 24 hours, indicating strong player anticipation despite the game's delay to May 26, 2026 [1][3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s net bookings for Q4 FY25 were $1.58 billion, aligning with the previous guidance of $1.52 to $1.62 billion [2]. - The management indicated that growth was primarily driven by the strong performance of NBA 2K, with consumer spending increasing by 42% year-on-year [2]. - For FY26, the company guides net bookings of $5.9 to $6.0 billion and total revenue of $5.95 to $6.05 billion, with a GAAP net loss projected between $0.44 to $0.50 billion [2]. Product Pipeline - The core product GTA VI is now expected to launch on May 26, 2026, which is clearer than the previously vague timeline of Fall 2025, reducing the likelihood of further delays [3]. - The company plans to release major titles such as Mafia and Borderlands 4 in August FY26, with a total of 21 core games, 9 mobile games, and 8 sequels expected between FY26 and FY28 [4]. Adjusted Profit and Valuation - The profit forecasts for FY26 and FY27 have been adjusted to net losses of $0.45 billion and a profit of $0.73 billion, respectively, with FY28 projected at $1.01 billion [5][13]. - The revenue forecast for FY26 has been reduced to $6.01 billion, while FY27 revenue is expected to be $9.45 billion, reflecting a 14.2% increase from previous estimates [5][13]. - The valuation window has been adjusted to FY27, with a target price-to-sales ratio of 4.9x, leading to a new target price of $259.30, up from $213.60 [5][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of JPY 4,400 [8][9]. Core Insights - The company's FY3/25 revenue is projected at JPY 12,957.1 billion, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, while operating profit is expected to grow by 16.4% to JPY 1,407.2 billion, exceeding the company's guidance of JPY 1,335 billion [1][2]. - The gaming and semiconductor businesses are anticipated to continue driving performance, with gaming business operating profit guidance exceeding expectations despite the delay of GTA6 [2][3]. - The impact of tariffs on operating profit is estimated at around 8%, but the actual effect may be more limited due to diversified production locations and increased inventory in the U.S. [3][4]. - The financial division spin-off is expected to be completed in October, which is viewed positively as it allows the company to focus more on its creative entertainment vision [4][5]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - For FY3/26, the company expects revenues of JPY 11,700 billion and operating profit of JPY 1,380 billion, with gaming and network services projected to grow by 15.7% year-on-year [2][3]. - The forecast for FY3/26 to FY3/28 net profit is JPY 10,743 billion, JPY 12,630 billion, and JPY 13,690 billion respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 11% and 2% for FY3/26 and FY3/27 due to tariff impacts [5][16]. Segment Performance - The gaming and network services segment is expected to generate significant revenue, with a projected operating profit of JPY 4,086 billion for FY3/26, driven by strong first-party game sales [17]. - The music segment is also expected to perform well, with an operating profit margin higher than comparable companies, projected at JPY 3,698 billion for FY3/26 [17]. - The imaging and sensing solutions segment is anticipated to see improvements in profit margins due to cautious investments and market share growth in the automotive sector [17].

Key Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in China's inverter exports in April 2025, with an export value of 5.82 billion, representing a month-on-month growth of 28.0% and a quantity of 4.5292 million units, up 21.4% from the previous month [3] - The average export price of inverters rose to 1,284 yuan per unit, marking a month-on-month increase of 5.5% [3] - The demand growth is attributed to the onset of the summer peak season for household storage and accelerated overseas large-scale storage construction [3] - The report emphasizes the long-term drivers of demand, including power outages, rising electricity prices, and significant growth in wind and solar installations, indicating a shift in inverter demand towards emerging markets [3] - The report recommends companies such as Deye Technology, Sungrow Power Supply, and Sunshine Power for their potential in the inverter market [3] Industry Overview - The macroeconomic context suggests that the Chinese yuan may have upward momentum against the US dollar, driven by structural rebalancing in global asset allocation and diminishing depreciation expectations for the yuan [2] - The report notes that the US has adjusted tariffs on imports, which has implications for global trade dynamics and may affect the competitiveness of Chinese exports [2] - The report also discusses the ongoing trends in the logistics and e-commerce sectors, highlighting a continued focus on price competition and volume growth in the express delivery market, with a year-on-year increase in express delivery volume of 19.1% in April [7] - In the consumer electronics sector, the report indicates strong sales growth for robotic vacuum cleaners and floor washers, driven by promotional activities and consumer demand, with sales volume for robotic vacuum cleaners increasing by 74.49% year-on-year in April [8]

证券研究报告 阿里健康 (241 HK) 港股通 自营业务转向高质量发展 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 5 月 | 21 日│中国香港 | 互联网 | 阿里健康 2HFY25 总收入 163 亿元，同比+16.0%，增速好于 Visible Alpha (VA，口径下同)一致预期的+12.6%，经调整净利润 9.7 亿元，同比增长 22.2%，逊于一致预期的 11.0 亿元。在广告业务注入带来的基数效应逐渐 消失后，我们预计阿里健康未来的盈利增速将主要依赖内生业务增速驱动。 后续建议关注：1）医药电商各品类需求修复情况及竞争格局演变；2）淘宝 即时零售战略进展及医药品类近场电商发展情况；3）阿里健康医疗 AI 技术 进展及商业化节奏。"买入"。 广告业务并入贡献坚实增量，淘宝闪购业务发展或带来近场电商领域机会 盈利预测与估值 我们调整 FY26-27 经调整归母净利润预测-8.8/-8.4%至 23/26 亿元，并引入 FY28 预测新值 29 亿元。我们给予公司 35x 目标非 IFRS PE，较可比公司 2026 年均值 ...

证券研究报告 万国数据-SW (9698 HK) EBITDA 增长提速，上架率提升 | 华泰研究 | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 5 月 | 21 日│中国香港 | 通信服务 | 万国数据 1Q25 实现营业收入 27.23 亿元，同比增长 12.0%，实现调整后 EBITDA 13.24 亿元，同比增长 16.1%，高于彭博一致预期的 12.87 亿元， 主要受益于积压订单的交付和新订单的快速推进。本季度公司完成首单 ABS 项目交割，并确认资产处置收益 10.57 亿元，在此影响下，本季度实 现净利润 4.11 亿元。我们认为，随着国内 AI 应用步入蓬勃发展期，AI 推理 需求的增长有望带动公司国内数据中心空置率下降，从而为公司带来估值提 升及业绩改善机遇，维持"买入"评级。 上架率及 EBITDA 利润率提升，海外业务签约规模达 537MW 国内业务方面，截至 1Q25 末，公司在运营面积达到 610,685 平方米（同比 增长 14.6%），在运营 IT 规模约 1313MW，公司在运营/储备规模分别达到 369MW/900MW。机柜利用率达 75. ...