Employment Data - July non-farm employment increased by 73,000, below the expected 104,000[1] - Unemployment rate rose by 0.13 percentage points to 4.248%[1] - Labor participation rate declined by 0.06 percentage points to 62.2%[1] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3%, in line with expectations[1] Data Revisions - Non-farm employment for May and June was revised down by a total of 258,000[2] - May's employment was revised down by 125,000 to 19,000, and June's by 133,000 to 14,000[1] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm data release, the dollar index fell from 100 to 98.7[2] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped over 20 basis points[2] - Gold prices increased by 2.2%, while the S&P 500 fell by 1.6%[2] - Rate cut expectations rose from 33 basis points to 56 basis points[2] Federal Reserve Outlook - Potential for a 50 basis point rate cut in September due to weak labor market signals[3] - The resignation of a Federal Reserve governor may expedite the selection of a new chair[3] - Market skepticism regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve may lead to expectations of a 75-100 basis point cut[4] Risk Factors - Economic, employment, and inflation trends in the U.S. may exceed expectations, impacting fiscal and tariff policies[5]

A-share Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) of the A-share market is 15.42, with a median of 13.42 and a maximum of 30.60[12] - The PE (TTM) for the Shanghai Composite Index is 13.32, while the CSI 300 is at 12.43[8] - Excluding financial and oil sectors, the A-share PE (TTM) is 22.86, indicating a higher valuation compared to the overall market[6] Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE (TTM) of 11.13, with a median of 10.25 and a maximum of 22.67[55] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a current PE (TTM) of 21.23, reflecting a significant valuation compared to other sectors[55] US Market Valuation - The S&P 500 has a current PE (TTM) of 27.63, with a median of 20.90 and a maximum of 41.99[76] - The NASDAQ Index is valued at 40.98, indicating a high growth expectation compared to traditional indices[76] Industry-Specific Valuation Insights - The food and beverage sector has a low PE (TTM) of 18.06, while the computer sector is at a high of 56.09, indicating sector-specific valuation disparities[23] - The banking sector's PB (LF) is at 0.91, suggesting undervaluation compared to historical averages[26] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy effectiveness falling short of expectations and unexpected corporate earnings results[98] - Market volatility and geopolitical events could significantly impact valuations across all markets[98]

Tax Policy Changes - The new tax policy will impose VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025[1] - Existing bonds issued before this date will continue to be exempt from VAT until maturity[1] Current Tax Rules - Public funds enjoy full tax exemptions on interest income and capital gains for government and local bonds[2] - Non-public asset management products are exempt from VAT on interest income but subject to 3% VAT and 25% income tax on capital gains[2] Fiscal Intent and Impact - The tax adjustment aims to alleviate fiscal pressure, as tax revenue has seen negative growth in 2020 (-2.3%), 2022 (-3.5%), and 2024 (-3.4%)[3] - In the first half of 2025, tax revenue was 9.29 trillion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year[3] Affected Institutions - Banks will face a 6% VAT on interest income from government, local, and financial bonds[4] - Public funds may continue to enjoy tax exemptions, while non-public asset management institutions could see VAT on interest income return to 3%[4] Market Pricing Dynamics - The bond market may experience dual pricing for old and new bonds, with old bonds likely to see increased demand due to tax exemptions[6] - New bonds issued after August 8 may be priced based on similar existing bonds, with a potential markup of 1.05-1.06 times[6]

产量：2025Q2 黄金产量 86.60 万盎司（26.94 吨），同比减少 3.3%，环比减少 0.9%。2025Q2 和 2025H1 黄金产量与上年同 期相比有所下降，主要原因是 Meadowbank（驯鹿迁徙时间长 于预期，影响了采矿和选矿作业）、Fosterville（品位和产量较 低）和 CanadianMalartic（产量较低）的产量较低，但 Macassa 和 LaRonde（品位较高）的产量较高，部分抵消了下降的产 量。 销量：2025Q2 黄金销量 84.68 万盎司（26.34 吨），同比减少 3.1%，环比增加 0.5%。 售价：2025Q2 黄金平均售价为 3288 美元/盎司（761.1 元/ 克），同比增长 40.4%，环比增长 13.7%。 证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 8 月 1 日 [Table_Title] Agnico Eagle 2025Q2 年黄金产量分别环比减少 0.9%至 26.94 吨，净利润环比增长 31.2%至 10.69 亿美元 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more during the specified period [6]. Core Insights - AMG Lithium sold 13,278 tons of lithium concentrate in Q2 2025, a 9% increase from Q1 2025, but a 22% decrease from Q2 2024. The average selling price for lithium concentrate was $621 per ton, down 3% from the previous quarter [1]. - The average cost of lithium concentrate decreased by 15% to $489 per ton, showing a 10% year-over-year decline [1]. - AMG Technologies reported a significant revenue increase of 53% to $241 million in Q2 2025, driven by higher antimony sales prices [13]. Summary by Sections 1. AMG Lithium - In Q2 2025, AMG Lithium's revenue was $36.997 million, a 3% year-over-year decline due to a 38% drop in lithium market prices and a 22% decrease in lithium concentrate production [9]. - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 66%, primarily due to a reduction in the cost per ton of lithium concentrate [9]. 2. AMG Vanadium - AMG Vanadium's revenue decreased by 4% to $161 million in Q2 2025, attributed to lower production of ferrovanadium and titanium alloys [10]. - Despite the revenue decline, the company benefited from the Inflation Reduction Act, qualifying for domestic production subsidies [10]. 3. AMG Technologies - AMG Technologies achieved a revenue increase of 53% to $241 million in Q2 2025, largely due to rising antimony sales prices [13]. - The adjusted EBITDA for this segment was $53 million, nearly tripling from the previous year [13]. 4. Financial Performance - Overall revenue for Q2 2025 was $439 million, a 20% increase year-over-year, with adjusted gross profit rising by 60% to $97.304 million [4]. - Operating profit reached $33.622 million, a 225% increase compared to the same quarter last year [15].

证券研究报告|金融工程研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 8 月 1 日 [Table_Title] 量价行业轮动组合今年以来月胜率为 100% [Table_Title2] ——行业轮动组合月报 [Table_Summary] ► 量价行业轮动组合 2025 年前 7 个月皆跑赢基准 量价行业轮动组合 7 月份上涨 5.54%，相对于行业等权的 超额收益为 0.82%。今年以来，量价行业轮动组合上涨 13.69%，相对于行业等权组合的超额收益为 4.36%，月胜率为 100%。 2025 年 8 月份量价复合因子值排名较高的行业为：纺织 服装、国防军工、轻工制造、商贸零售、家电。 ► "正预期与非拥挤"行业组合 7 月超额 2.02% 我们根据分析师预期变化、市场信心、报告覆盖加速 度、机构覆盖加速度、财务报表超预期、业绩预告超预期构 建分析师预期复合因子；同时，通过 6 个量价因子构建拥挤 度指标，剔除拥挤度指标最低的 15 个行业，重新选择剔除后 分析师预期复合因子值最高的五个行业，构建"正预期与非 拥挤"行业轮动组合。 2010 年至 2025 年 7 月，"正预期与非拥挤"行业组合的 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The impact of the copper tariffs is limited, with a concentrated import source [3] - The share of imports from China is minimal, indicating a non-major reliance [4] - The restructuring of the U.S. copper industry will require a long period [5] - Copper prices are expected to return to supply-demand pricing [6] Summary by Sections Event Overview - On July 30, President Trump signed an announcement imposing a 50% tariff on certain copper imports, effective August 1. This includes semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, while raw copper materials and scrap are exempt from these tariffs [2] Analysis and Judgment - The copper tariffs are expected to have a limited impact on U.S. copper imports, with 2024 imports totaling 610,300 tons, primarily from Chile (33.6%), Canada (30.4%), and Mexico (7.6%). In the first half of 2025, imports reached 1,011,900 tons, with a significant portion being raw materials exempt from tariffs [3] - The affected product categories from China account for less than 5% of total U.S. imports, indicating a limited impact [4] - The announcement requires that by 2027, 25% of copper raw materials produced in the U.S. must be sold domestically, increasing to 40% by 2029, which aims to enhance U.S. smelting capacity [5] - Due to the lack of restrictions on raw copper, the COMEX copper premium has disappeared, and it is anticipated that copper will flow to other markets, leading to a return to supply-demand pricing [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hisense Home Appliances is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 49.34 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.44%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.08 billion yuan, up 3.01% year-on-year. However, in Q2 2025, revenue was 24.50 billion yuan, down 2.60% year-on-year, and net profit was 949 million yuan, down 8.25% year-on-year [2] Summary by Sections Business Performance - External sales revenue showed steady growth, while domestic sales faced short-term pressure. In H1 2025, the HVAC segment generated revenue of 23.69 billion yuan, up 4.07% year-on-year, with the central air conditioning business affected by the real estate renovation market, leading to a decline in Hisense Hitachi's revenue by 6.0% year-on-year. The new air conditioning segment saw rapid growth, with a 48% increase in revenue for the high-end series [3] - The washing and refrigeration segment achieved revenue of 15.39 billion yuan, up 4.76% year-on-year, with retail sales of Rongsheng refrigerators and Hisense refrigerators increasing by 9.7% and 8.6% respectively. Hisense washing machines focused on technological upgrades and scenario-based innovations, with domestic revenue up 37.6% year-on-year [3] - Other main businesses generated revenue of 6.61 billion yuan, up 8.89% year-on-year, with the three electric companies achieving a 3% year-on-year revenue increase and new business rights of 6.9 billion yuan, laying a foundation for future order growth [3] - By region, domestic revenue in H1 2025 was 25.25 billion yuan, down 0.31% year-on-year, while overseas revenue was 20.45 billion yuan, up 12.34% year-on-year, with significant growth in Europe (22.7%), the Americas (26.2%), and the Middle East and Africa (22.8%) [3] Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 21.48%, up 0.2 percentage points year-on-year. The HVAC segment's gross margin was 27.12%, down 1.56 percentage points, while the washing and refrigeration segment's gross margin was 18.74%, up 2.12 percentage points. The gross margin for other main businesses was 15.80%, up 0.99 percentage points [4] - Domestic gross margin was 31.02%, down 0.06 percentage points, while overseas gross margin was 12.33%, up 1.35 percentage points, attributed to scale effects and product improvements [4] - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 6.06%, down 0.17 percentage points, and for Q2 2025, it was 5.53%, down 0.41 percentage points, influenced by exchange losses and increased operational costs due to organizational restructuring [5] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on smart living strategies and technological innovation, with a diverse brand matrix including Hisense, Rongsheng, Kelon, Hitachi, and York, catering to differentiated customer needs. Hisense's brand value and recognition continue to rise, supported by sponsorship of major international sports events, enhancing its global brand influence [6] Financial Forecast - The company adjusted its profit forecast, expecting revenues of 99.2 billion yuan, 106.8 billion yuan, and 114.2 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits of 3.72 billion yuan, 4.21 billion yuan, and 4.66 billion yuan respectively. The corresponding EPS is projected to be 2.68 yuan, 3.04 yuan, and 3.36 yuan, maintaining a PE ratio of 10, 8, and 8 times for the respective years [8]

Price Trends - The market has experienced a significant downturn, with major commodities like glass, coking coal, polysilicon, silicon iron, and pure soda dropping over 6%[1] - Coking coal and polysilicon have seen price increases of 15.8% and 10.9% respectively since July 18, but these gains have narrowed significantly[2] - Iron ore has even turned negative, with a decrease of 0.4% since July 1[2] Market Sentiment - The recent decline in market sentiment is attributed to changes in macro policy statements, particularly regarding the regulation of low-price competition[1] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized a market-oriented approach rather than administrative commands to control prices, indicating a potential pause in recent price hikes[1] Industry Dynamics - Major steel companies in China have announced a halt in molybdenum iron purchases to resist irrational price increases, highlighting intensified competition within the industry[1] - The overall market may be entering a phase of reduced volatility as it awaits fundamental changes before resuming upward trends[3] Futures Market - Many commodities have shifted from a premium to a discount in the futures market, with prices for glass, coking coal, industrial silicon, rebar, and lithium carbonate currently below spot prices by 10.2%, 9.9%, 8.2%, 7.1%, and 5.2% respectively[2] - The futures market reflects a cautious outlook on short-term price increases, with coking coal and polysilicon's futures premiums narrowing to 14.0% and 5.4%[2]

Core Insights - The report indicates a significant adjustment in the equity market, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 experiencing declines of 1.18% and 1.82% respectively, while the bond market is showing signs of recovery [2][4] - The manufacturing PMI has decreased to 49.3%, indicating a marginal economic slowdown, which has further pressured market risk appetite and bolstered bond market sentiment [4][5] - Institutional confidence is gradually recovering, with funds returning to the bond market, particularly into balanced and index bond funds, suggesting a potential acceleration of the bond bull market [5][9] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3573.21, down 42.51 points or 1.18%, while the CSI 300 Index closed at 4075.59, down 75.65 points or 1.82% [1] - The bond market saw a slight increase in the 7-10 year national development bond index, which rose by 0.12% [1] Market Adjustments - The equity market is undergoing a correction phase, with significant outflows from stock ETFs totaling 25.3 billion yuan since July 24, indicating a shift in institutional sentiment [7] - The afternoon session saw a notable decline in the market following concerns over Nvidia's chip safety issues, which affected risk appetite [6][9] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the bond bull market may be entering an accelerated phase, with a focus on long-duration bonds as institutional investors show renewed interest [5] - The ongoing adjustments in U.S.-China trade relations are expected to influence market expectations, potentially driving funds back to safe-haven assets like bonds [5][6]