证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 08 日 [Table_Title] 公募 REITs 总市值首次突破 2000 亿元 ——公募 REITs 周速览（2025 年 6 月 2-6 日） 本周（2025 年 6 月 2-6 日）中证 REITs 全收益指数收于 1107.26 点，周度上涨 1.58%，2025 年来首次突 破 1100 点位。中证 REITs（收盘）指数收于 881.85 点，周度上涨 1.55%。我国基础设施公募 REITs 市场已上 市 66 个项目，本周总市值收于 2021 亿元，首次突破 2000 亿元大关，环比上涨 1.95%。大类资产角度，本周 REITs 各资产板块均上涨，整体跑赢沪深 300、债券板块、沪金和 COMAX 黄金，跑输中证 500、中证 1000、 恒生科技和沪银。 图 1：REITs 市场整体表现 资料来源：WIND，华西证券研究所 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 0.55 0.65 0.75 0.85 0.95 1.05 1.15 1.25 1.3 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - DeepSeek has released an update to its R1 model, with expectations rising for the R2 model. The R1 update, based on the DeepSeek V3 Base model, has shown significant performance improvements in various benchmark tests, particularly in mathematics, programming, and general logic capabilities, comparable to leading closed-source models. The distilled version R1-0528-Qwen3-8B has demonstrated performance close to that of the much larger Qwen3-235B, enhancing accessibility to advanced AI [2][24] - Nvidia is developing a new AI chip named "B30" specifically for the Chinese market. This chip will support multi-GPU expansion and is expected to be priced between $6,500 and $8,000, lower than the H20 chip. The development reflects Nvidia's commitment to maintaining its market share in China amid U.S. export controls [3][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and technological innovation in the context of rising uncertainties from external trade disputes. It maintains a cautiously optimistic view on leading Chinese tech companies, suggesting investment opportunities in Hong Kong internet leaders, the gaming industry, and the film and cultural tourism sectors [26] Industry Data - In the film industry, the top three movies by box office revenue for the week were "Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning" with 95.165 million yuan, "Time's Son" with 32.68 million yuan, and "Doraemon: Nobita's Painting Adventure" with 19.587 million yuan [47] - The top five iOS games by revenue were "Honor of Kings," "Peacekeeper Elite," "Zero Zone," "Gold Shovel Battle," and "Shoot Zombies," while the top five Android games were "Heart Town," "Staff Sword Legend," "My Leisure Time," "Honkai: Star Rail," and "Honor of Kings" [48][50] - The top three TV series by viewership index were "The Cang Hai Legend," "Bending Waist," and "Falling into Our Love" [53]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Viewpoints - The humanoid robot industry is accelerating its commercialization, with tactile sensor technology being a key factor for safe interaction and intelligent control. Companies with technological and cost advantages are expected to benefit significantly as humanoid robots enter mass production [1][14][17] - The solid-state battery industry is progressing towards industrialization, driven by advancements in battery technology and the expansion of the supply chain. Solid-state batteries are seen as the next-generation battery technology due to their high energy density and safety [2][18][20] - The UK government has announced the indicative timeline for the seventh round of Contracts for Difference (CfD) auctions, with offshore wind auctions expected to start in August. This round is anticipated to create the highest auction capacity in history, supporting the growth of renewable energy, particularly offshore wind [3][26][27] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - Tactile sensing technology is crucial for ensuring safe interactions between humanoid robots and their environments. The market is currently dominated by foreign companies, but domestic firms are making progress in technology development and market expansion [1][13] - Major companies are entering the humanoid robot space, with significant advancements expected in the T-chain, particularly from Tesla's Optimus robots, which are projected to see mass production by the end of 2025 [14][17] - Domestic suppliers are also making strides, with companies like Huawei and various local manufacturers actively developing humanoid robot products [14][17] New Energy Vehicles - The solid-state battery industry is experiencing rapid industrialization, with significant milestones achieved in production capacity and technology maturity. The demand for solid-state batteries is expected to grow as new products are launched and performance is validated [2][18][20] - The new energy vehicle sector is in a growth phase, with continuous introduction of high-quality models and improvements in performance and cost, enhancing overall value [19][20] - The lithium battery industry is expected to benefit from the recovery of consumer electronics and the expansion of energy storage, with a focus on new technologies such as solid-state batteries and silicon-based anodes [20][22][23] Renewable Energy - The UK government is set to accelerate the development of offshore wind energy, with the seventh round of CfD auctions expected to yield significant project capacity. This aligns with the UK's goal of achieving a nearly fully clean power system by 2030 [3][26][27] - The solar energy sector is anticipated to see growth driven by inventory and capacity adjustments, with a focus on new technologies like perovskite solar cells and advancements in silicon production [28][30][31] - The wind energy sector is also poised for growth, with stable pricing and increasing demand for both onshore and offshore wind projects, particularly as domestic manufacturers expand their international presence [40][49][50]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in A-share average daily trading volume, which reached 12,089 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.5% month-on-month increase and a 62.1% year-on-year increase [3][18] - The report indicates that the non-bank financial Shenwan index rose by 1.99%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.12 percentage points, ranking it 10th among all primary industries [2][13] - The report emphasizes the ongoing support for technological innovation from multiple departments, including the People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, aiming to enhance financial support for technology enterprises [3][14][15] - Insurance capital is increasingly being directed towards long-term investments, with the launch of significant funds aimed at supporting strategic industries and enhancing capital market stability [4][16][17] Summary by Sections Market and Sector Performance - The average daily trading volume in A-shares for the week was 12,089 billion yuan, with a 10.5% increase from the previous week and a 62.1% increase year-on-year [3][18] - The non-bank financial sector saw a 1.99% increase in its index, with notable performances from sub-sectors such as securities (up 2.39%) and internet finance (up 4.65%) [2][13] Financial Support for Technological Innovation - The Tianjin Financial Forum on June 5, 2025, highlighted a commitment from regulatory bodies to enhance financial support for technology innovation through improved credit services and the establishment of a "technology board" in the bond market [3][14] - The banking sector's knowledge property pledge loan balance exceeded 300 billion yuan, marking a 33.7% year-on-year increase, indicating a growing focus on supporting technology enterprises [14][15] Insurance Sector Developments - China Pacific Insurance announced the establishment of a 500 billion yuan fund aimed at mergers and acquisitions, focusing on key areas of state-owned enterprise reform and modern industrial system construction [4][16] - The report notes that insurance capital is increasingly being utilized for long-term investments, which aligns with the needs of technology enterprises for stable financial support [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past week, despite the volatile news, the bond market remained stable with bullish sentiment prevailing. On June 5th, the bond market yields declined instead of rising, pricing in the positive factors of central bank support [1][21]. - The central bank's early renewal of RMB 1 trillion in outright repurchase operations is a signal of support, which may reduce the possibility of a significant tightening of liquidity during the quarter - end [2][21]. - Institutional behavior has received two positive factors: large - banks' continuous allocation of short - term bonds in the secondary market may be a signal of the central bank restarting bond purchases; the improvement in long - term life insurance premiums may increase the insurance sector's allocation of ultra - long bonds [3]. - The outcome of the new round of Sino - US negotiations in the coming week is a variable. An optimistic outcome may lead to a short - term rise in long - term interest rates but is beneficial to the bond market in the medium term, while a neutral outcome may see the bond market continue to be influenced by central bank support, with limited downward space for long - term interest rates [32]. - In June, with few foreseeable negative factors, short - term bond prices have risen significantly, and long - term interest rates may break out of the narrow - range oscillation. Investors can consider trading duration products for excess returns [33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Bond Market Bullish Sentiment Dominates - From June 3rd - 6th, after the Dragon Boat Festival, the bond market emerged from a narrow - range oscillation and showed a downward trend. Yields of long - term and short - term treasury bonds decreased, with the 10 - year treasury bond active bond (250011) falling to 1.65% (- 2bp) and the 1 - year treasury bond active bond (250008) falling to 1.41% (- 5bp) [10]. 3.2 Bond Market May Be on the Rise - The central bank's early renewal of RMB 1 trillion in 3 - month outright repurchase operations, with the announcement form changed and the time advanced, is to enhance information transparency and ease market concerns about quarter - end pressure. There are still reserve operations in the second half of the month [2][21]. - The positive impact of central bank support is first reflected in the certificate of deposit (CD) market. After the central bank's announcement, the pressure on banks to issue CDs has eased, but there may still be issuance pressure in the next 1 - 2 weeks [22]. - In terms of institutional behavior, large banks have continuously allocated short - term bonds in the secondary market, which may be a signal of the central bank restarting bond purchases. In addition, the improvement in long - term life insurance premiums may increase the allocation of ultra - long bonds by the insurance sector [3][23][28]. 3.3 In the First Week of June, the Wealth Management Scale Continued to Shrink 3.3.1 Weekly Scale: A Slight Decline of RMB 1.79 Billion - At the end of May (May 26th - 30th), the wealth management scale decreased by RMB 186.6 billion due to the balance - sheet return pressure, with the daily - open products bearing the main decline. In May, the scale increased by RMB 193.4 billion, reaching a record high, but the growth rate was slightly slower than in previous years [37]. - In the first week of June (June 3rd - 6th), the wealth management scale unexpectedly decreased by RMB 1.79 billion to RMB 31.51 trillion. Historically, the scale usually increases in the first week of June [38]. 3.3.2 Wealth Management Risks: Net Value Stabilized and Negative Yields Decreased - The net value of wealth management products stabilized and rebounded, driving down the negative yield. The negative yield of products in the past week decreased by 4.90pct to 1.51%, and the negative yield in the past three months decreased by 0.66pct to 0.96% [43]. - The overall proportion of wealth management products breaking the net value decreased by 0.2pct to 0.7%, while the proportion of products with unmet performance targets increased by 0.5pct to 18.2% [52]. 3.4 Leverage Ratio: Large Banks' Lending Continued to Recover, and Inter - bank Leverage Increased - In the first week of June (June 3rd - 6th), with the central bank's support, the inter - bank funds became looser. The average price of funds decreased, and the average trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased from RMB 6.5 trillion to RMB 7.5 trillion, with the average overnight ratio rising from 83.33% to 87.48% [61]. - The leverage ratio of non - bank institutions slightly decreased, the inter - bank leverage ratio continued to rise from 107.18% to 107.36%, and the exchange leverage ratio slightly decreased [63]. 3.5 Funds Continued to Extend Duration - From June 3rd - 6th, bond funds further extended their duration. The median duration of interest - rate medium - and long - term bond funds increased from 4.32 years to 4.68 years, and that of credit medium - and long - term bond funds increased from 2.09 years to 2.22 years. The duration of short - term and medium - short - term bond funds also extended [71][75]. 3.6 Treasury Bond Issuance Accelerated - From June 9th - 13th, the planned issuance scale of government bonds was RMB 722.8 billion, mainly due to the accelerated issuance of treasury bonds, which increased by RMB 168.8 billion to RMB 615 billion compared with the previous week, while the local bond issuance scale remained basically unchanged at RMB 107.8 billion [79]. - Regarding local bonds, as of June 6th, the issuance progress of replacement bonds was 84.18%, and the issuance of new local special bonds was RMB 1647.9 billion, accounting for 37% of the RMB 4.4 trillion quota. From January 1st - June 13th, the cumulative net issuance of local bonds was RMB 3714.8 billion, an increase of RMB 2144.5 billion year - on - year [80][81]. - Regarding treasury bonds, from January 1st - June 13th, the cumulative net issuance was RMB 3371 billion, an increase of RMB 1854.3 billion year - on - year, with a remaining quota of RMB 3289 billion [84]. - Regarding policy - financial bonds, from January 1st - June 9th, the cumulative net issuance was RMB 827.4 billion, an increase of RMB 299.3 billion year - on - year [85].

Group 1 - Quantum Song released FY2025Q3 financial report, achieving revenue of 571 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.6%, and a net profit of 41.145 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 181.2% [1][9] - The company completed the acquisition of 61% stake in Letsvan for a total cash consideration of 235 million yuan, marking a significant entry into the trendy toy sector [2][11] - The personal online learning service revenue decreased by 43.6% to 467 million yuan, primarily due to a decline in income from skill enhancement and financial knowledge courses [10] Group 2 - Kuaishou's Keling AI, launched one year ago, achieved an annualized revenue run rate exceeding 1 billion yuan, with monthly paid amounts surpassing 100 million yuan for two consecutive months [3][13] - Keling AI's revenue structure shows that nearly 70% of its income comes from P-end subscription members, indicating strong commercial viability [14] - The AI product has completed over 20 iterations and serves more than 10,000 enterprise clients, with a revenue of over 150 million yuan in Q1 2025 [13][14] Group 3 - The trendy toy business is rapidly gaining momentum, with Letsvan's core IP WAKUKU achieving significant market traction, including a product launch that sold out within two hours and a 90.3% increase in store sales [2][11] - The brand's theme song "WAKUKU" has garnered over 1 billion views, indicating strong brand penetration and user-generated content engagement [2][11] - Another original IP "You Li" has differentiated itself through collaborations with high-end international brands and cultural heritage initiatives [2][11] Group 4 - The report suggests that the "AI+" logic is catalyzing valuation optimization in Hong Kong stocks, with new industry leaders stabilizing under changing consumer dynamics [5]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - The adjustment of national subsidy policies is aimed at controlling the volume rather than ending the subsidies, with subsequent funds being actively disbursed [2][10] - As of the end of May, over 150 billion yuan of national subsidy funds have been consumed, with an expected increase to 50 billion yuan in June, leading to a cumulative consumption of 210 billion yuan from January to June, accounting for 70% of the 300 billion yuan subsidy pool [1][9] - Various regions have begun to implement limits on subsidies or even pause them due to overspending, with Jiangsu province announcing a limit on both online and offline subsidies starting June 1 [1][11] Summary by Sections Weekly Topic - National subsidy funds consumption has exceeded expectations, with many regions transitioning to limit management or pausing subsidies [1][9] - The government is smoothing the subsidy rhythm to reduce demand overdraft, especially with the peak sales season for air conditioners and major shopping events like the 618 promotion approaching [2][10] Company Key Announcements - Stone Technology plans to issue H shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance global brand recognition and competitiveness, optimize capital structure, and improve governance [3][12] Data Tracking Raw Material Data - As of June 6, 2025, LME copper prices increased by 1.8% compared to the previous week, while LME aluminum prices decreased by 0.55% [13] Shipping Rates and Exchange Rates - The CCFI composite index increased by 3.34% compared to the previous week, with the USD to RMB exchange rate decreasing by 0.15% [23][24] Real Estate Data - From January to April 2025, the cumulative year-on-year changes in commercial housing sales area, housing completion area, and new housing starts were -3%, -17%, and -24% respectively [26]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a turnaround in profitability in FY24, with a net profit of 0.22 billion yuan compared to a loss of 15.38 billion yuan in the same period last year [2][6] - The company is actively adjusting its business structure, focusing on the development of the prepared food segment, which is expected to grow significantly in the future [7][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In FY24, the company reported revenue of 10.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.49%, and a net profit of 0.22 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 15.38 billion yuan in the previous year [2] - For Q4 FY24, the company generated revenue of 2.98 billion yuan, down 7.37% year-on-year, with a net loss of 0.51 billion yuan [2] - In Q1 FY25, revenue was 2.55 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.01% year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 85.85% to 0.04 billion yuan [2] Business Segments - The company's revenue from fresh and frozen meat, cooked products, prepared foods, and import trade in FY24 was 8.99 billion, 0.21 billion, 1.69 billion, and 0.02 billion yuan respectively, with declines of 6.65%, 10.06%, 14.98%, and 98.42% year-on-year [3] - The company is focusing on maintaining existing channels while exploring new ones, particularly in the B2B and new retail sectors, resulting in a revenue increase of 7.64% in online channels [3] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margin for FY24 was 3.98%, an increase of 5.56 percentage points year-on-year, while Q1 FY25 saw a gross margin of 4.91% [4] - The company has managed to reduce sales expenses in FY24, although management and financial expenses increased in Q1 FY25 [5] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue focusing on the prepared food segment, which is projected to reach a scale of around 5 billion yuan, leveraging its strong customer base in the B2B sector [8] - Revenue forecasts for FY25 and FY26 have been adjusted to 11.73 billion and 12.66 billion yuan respectively, with EPS estimates revised to 0.10 and 0.14 yuan [9]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - The macro sentiment has eased following the dialogue between the US and China, leading to a strong fluctuation in industrial metals [1][6] - Precious metals have seen a decline in safe-haven demand, with gold and silver prices experiencing slight increases this week [1][25] - The report highlights the impact of US economic indicators, including manufacturing and employment data, on market sentiment and metal prices [1][40] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 0.54% to $3,331.00 per ounce, while silver prices rose by 9.24% to $36.13 per ounce this week [1][25] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 129,023.13 troy ounces, and SLV Silver ETF holdings rose by 13,038,422.40 ounces [1][25] - The gold-silver ratio fell by 7.96% to 92.19, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1][25] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper prices rose by 1.83% to $9,670.50 per ton, aluminum by 0.12% to $2,451.50 per ton, zinc by 1.25% to $2,662.50 per ton, and lead by 0.51% to $1,974.00 per ton [6][46] - SHFE market showed similar trends with copper up by 1.71% to ¥78,930.00 per ton and zinc up by 0.72% to ¥22,385.00 per ton [6][46] - The report notes a significant decrease in LME copper registered warehouse stocks, down 17.5% to 54,700 tons, the lowest level since July 2023 [44] Copper - Chile's copper exports in May reached 181,234 tons, with 32,721 tons exported to China [7][67] - Domestic copper rod enterprises' operating rates increased to 75.90%, reflecting a recovery in demand [7][67] - The report anticipates a long-term positive outlook for copper prices due to ongoing macroeconomic policies and infrastructure investments in China [8][68] Aluminum - The report indicates that aluminum demand is under pressure, with production costs decreasing and seasonal demand weakening [9][10] - The average cost of electrolytic aluminum in China fell to ¥16,374 per ton, while the average profit margin increased to ¥3,703 per ton [44] - The outlook for aluminum prices remains cautiously optimistic, supported by ongoing demand in the electric vehicle and power sectors [10][18] Zinc - The report highlights ongoing uncertainties due to tariffs and increased imports, leading to sustained supply pressures in the zinc market [11] - Domestic zinc ingot inventories increased by 0.43% to 79,300 tons, indicating a buildup in supply [11] Lead - Lead consumption is currently in a seasonal downturn, with inventories expected to continue rising [12] - The report notes that lead battery markets are experiencing reduced production, leading to cautious procurement strategies among downstream enterprises [12] Minor Metals - Magnesium prices have seen a decline of 3.25% to ¥17,590 per ton, with cautious purchasing behavior observed in the market [13][14] - Molybdenum prices have increased, supported by strong raw material prices, while vanadium prices have softened due to weak demand [15]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 08 日 [Table_Title] 公募 REITs 总市值首次突破 2000 亿元 ——公募 REITs 周速览（2025 年 6 月 2-6 日） 图 1：REITs 市场整体表现 资料来源：WIND，华西证券研究所 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 0.55 0.65 0.75 0.85 0.95 1.05 1.15 1.25 1.35 2021/9/30 2022/2/28 2022/7/31 2022/12/31 2023/5/31 2023/10/31 2024/3/31 2024/8/31 2025/1/31 REIT全收益成交额（右轴） 中证REITs全收益 沪深300 中证500 中证1000 中证转债 基准线（1.00） 注 1：通常用中证 REITs 全收益指数（指数代码：932047）或中证 REITs（收盘）指数（指数代码：932006）来反映沪深市场上市 REITs 的整体表现，二者均选取沪深市场中满足一定流动性条件和上市时间要求的 RE ...