证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 11 日 投资要点： | 市场数据 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3,379.83 | 0.41% | 3.59% | | 创业板指 | 2,204.03 | 0.19% | 6.97% | | 沪深 300 | 3,941.42 | 0.32% | 3.17% | | 中证 1000 | 6,551.73 | 0.47% | 13.02% | | 科创 50 | 1,100.74 | -0.40% | 15.22% | | 北证 50 | 1,418.65 | 0.08% | 39.10% | 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年03月11日 华源晨会精粹 公用环保 金风科技(02208.HK)首次覆盖：运营与制造双轮驱动，盈利能力有望修复。 公司是我国风机龙头企业，以直驱技术起家，近年来技术逐渐向半直驱转型，截至 2024 年末累计装机超 1 亿千瓦大幅领先第二名。近年来由于竞争加剧等因素影响， 整机价格及整机厂毛利率水平持续下滑，后续 ...

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 10 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年03月10日 华源晨会精粹 机械/建材/建筑 城市更新再扩围，"好房子"创造新赛道——十四届全国人大三次 会议民生主题记者会点评：城市更新继续扩围，城改货币化有望加速落地。3 月 9 日，住建部部长倪虹表示，把 2000 年以前建成的城市老旧小区都要纳入城市更新的 改造范围；城中村改造要继续扩大改造范围。根据七普及统计局数据估算，截至 2024 年末，我国存量住宅约 349 亿平，其中 2000 年以前建成的房屋占比约 29%，对应 约 101 亿平。我们认为，23-24 年城中村改造的前期筹备工作已经较为完善，预计 25 年城中村改造将加速推进，此外，稳妥推进货币化安置，让城中村居民拥有更多 自主选择权，意味着补偿方式上也有望更加灵活。收购主体、价格和用途充分授权 地方，收储有望加速推进。"好房子"新赛道，产品力房企有望获得产品溢价，建 材产品价格有望回归。建议关注有望受益城市更新及好房子建设的房企和建材企业。 风险提示：经济恢复不及预期，化债力度不及预期，房地产政策不及 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the gaming industry [4] Core Insights - The gaming industry is experiencing rapid market expansion, with the virtual goods trading market in China reaching a total scale of 742.5 billion yuan in 2023 [5][12] - The industry is evolving towards a more mature three-tiered supply chain, consisting of game developers, distributors, trading platforms, and end-users [5][12] - The report highlights the increasing diversification of trading goods, including accounts, items, in-game currency, and services [5][12] Summary by Sections 1. Gaming Trading Industry Market and Leading Platforms - The gaming trading market is rapidly expanding, with a total market size of 742.5 billion yuan in 2023, including segments for equipment (248.7 billion yuan), currency (253.9 billion yuan), consumables (190.1 billion yuan), accounts (5.2 billion yuan), and boosting services (33.4 billion yuan) [12] - The industry has formed a mature three-tier supply chain, with upstream players including game developers and studios, midstream trading platforms, and downstream players being the gamers [12][15] 2. Feasibility of Data Asset Trading in Cultural and Digital Exchanges - The report discusses the legal protection of virtual assets in online games, indicating that the legal framework is evolving to support such transactions [46] - The trading of virtual goods is seen as a growing trend, with cultural and digital exchanges like the Zhejiang Cultural Exchange gaining traction in facilitating these transactions [51] 3. Growth Drivers of the Second-Hand Trading Market - From the manufacturer’s perspective, a mature second-hand trading system is crucial for sustaining game operations and enhancing market transparency [5] - From the player’s perspective, the second-hand market meets the demand for virtual asset monetization and fosters a complete gaming ecosystem [5] 4. Advantages of Cultural and Digital Exchanges Over In-Game Trading Systems - Cultural and digital exchanges offer more secure and regulated trading environments compared to in-game systems, which are often prone to fraud [5] - These exchanges can facilitate the conversion of virtual currencies into legal tender, addressing a significant limitation of in-game trading systems [5] 5. Market Outlook - The gaming industry is moving towards the standardization of in-game trading markets, with manufacturers shifting from merely restricting transactions to actively designing rules to guide market order [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [5][8]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the wind turbine manufacturing sector, benefiting from both manufacturing and wind power development, with expectations for profitability recovery [7][10]. - The report highlights the potential for improved profitability driven by overseas exports and a rebound in offshore wind projects, alongside a stable performance in wind power operations [10][55]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - The closing price of the company's stock is HKD 5.26, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 22.22 billion [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024E: CNY 58.85 billion - 2025E: CNY 72.72 billion - 2026E: CNY 85.96 billion - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024E: CNY 1.74 billion - 2025E: CNY 2.54 billion - 2026E: CNY 3.23 billion - The report estimates a target market value of CNY 34.5 billion, representing a 68% upside from the current valuation [6][8]. Investment Logic - The company is expected to benefit from: 1. Increased offshore wind project activity and accelerated overseas exports, which are anticipated to enhance overall profitability [10]. 2. High-quality wind power assets, with a return on equity (ROE) in the power generation business that ranks among the best in the industry [10][55]. 3. The introduction of a green electricity pricing mechanism, which is expected to provide stable returns for both operational and manufacturing segments [10]. Business Overview - The company has a strong market position, being the largest wind turbine manufacturer in China, with a cumulative installed capacity exceeding 100 million kilowatts [7][34]. - The company’s revenue from wind turbine manufacturing peaked at CNY 466.6 billion in 2020 but has since declined, with 2023 revenue around CNY 32.9 billion [18][21]. - The offshore wind market is projected to recover, with several provinces announcing new projects, which could significantly boost the company's revenue and profitability [49][50]. Operational Assets - The company has a total installed capacity of 814,000 kilowatts as of Q3 2024, with a focus on high-utilization areas such as Xinjiang [55]. - The company is actively developing and operating wind power projects, with a significant number of projects in the pipeline, indicating strong future growth potential [55]. Market Trends - The report notes a trend towards larger wind turbines, which is expected to continue driving down costs and improving efficiency in the sector [35]. - The company is also adapting to market pressures by diversifying its product offerings, including semi-direct drive models, which may help mitigate cost pressures [31][33]. This comprehensive analysis indicates a favorable investment opportunity in the company, supported by strong market positioning and growth potential in the wind energy sector.

唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 林高凡 lingaofan@huayuanstock.com 开复工率提升，重视 3 月基建行情 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——建筑装饰行业周报（20250303-20250309） 证券研究报告 建筑装饰 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 10 日 证券分析师 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 投资要点： 本周观点： 基建数据跟踪： 市场回顾： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 1) 近期建筑施工活动持续恢复，复工进度稳步推进。2 月 28 日，全国水泥发运率较前 一周环比上升 7.09 个百分点，反映出施工活跃度显著提升。2 月 26 日—3 月 4 日， 全国水泥出库量达到 207.55 万吨，环比增长 32.54%，其中基建水 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (first-time rating) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the government's commitment to stabilize the real estate market through various measures, including increasing loan allocations and promoting urban village and dilapidated housing renovations [3] - The expansion of urban renewal projects is expected, with plans to include 1 million new urban village renovations and dilapidated housing renovations by 2024 [3] - The focus on "good housing" is emphasized, with the government aiming to create a new market segment for high-quality residential properties [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Urban Renewal and Housing Renovation - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development plans to expand urban village renovations from 35 cities to nearly 300 cities, targeting old residential areas built before 2000 [3] - As of the end of 2024, approximately 349 billion square meters of existing residential space is estimated, with about 29% built before 2000, corresponding to around 101 billion square meters [3] Market Dynamics and Opportunities - The report anticipates that the restructuring of the housing demand will create a wave of development for "good housing," allowing product-driven real estate companies to gain market share and premium pricing [3] - The construction materials sector is expected to recover as the demand for high-quality housing increases, reversing the previous trend of consumption downgrade [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate and construction material companies that are likely to benefit from urban renewal and the construction of high-quality housing, including companies like Binjiang Group and China Overseas Development [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the building materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The inclusion of "good housing" in the government work report is expected to drive the return of building material prices, indicating a shift towards high-quality residential development [3] - The report highlights that the government is focusing on stabilizing the real estate market, with an emphasis on promoting healthy development in both the real estate and stock markets [3] - The estimated urban residential stock in China is approximately 350 billion square meters, with a low penetration rate of high-quality housing, particularly in first-tier cities [3] - The report anticipates a reversal of the consumption downgrade in the building materials industry, with prices expected to recover before sales, indicating an early turning point [3] Data Tracking Cement - The average price of 42.5 cement nationwide is 390.3 RMB/ton, up 2.8 RMB/ton month-on-month and up 32.7 RMB/ton year-on-year [16] - The cement inventory ratio is 55.2%, down 2.0 percentage points month-on-month and down 9.3 percentage points year-on-year [16] - The cement shipment rate is 38.5%, up 7.2 percentage points month-on-month and up 10.5 percentage points year-on-year [16] Float Glass - The average price of 5mm float glass is 1446.8 RMB/ton, down 38.1 RMB/ton month-on-month and down 669.2 RMB/ton year-on-year [26] - The total inventory of key production enterprises in 13 provinces is 61.68 million heavy boxes, up 3.1% month-on-month and up 15.1% year-on-year [26] Photovoltaic Glass - The average price of 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is 13.8 RMB/square meter, up 1.8 RMB/square meter month-on-month and down 2.6% year-on-year [29] - The average price of 3.2mm coated photovoltaic glass is 22.3 RMB/square meter, up 2.9 RMB/square meter month-on-month and down 3.4% year-on-year [29] Glass Fiber - The average price of alkali-free glass fiber yarn is 4745.0 RMB/ton, up 30.0 RMB/ton month-on-month and up 770.0 RMB/ton year-on-year [34] - The average price of electronic yarn is 9100.0 RMB/ton, up 450.0 RMB/ton month-on-month and up 1850.0 RMB/ton year-on-year [34] Carbon Fiber - The average price of large tow carbon fiber is 72.5 RMB/kg, unchanged month-on-month and down 2.0 RMB/kg year-on-year [35] - The average price of small tow carbon fiber is 95.0 RMB/kg, unchanged month-on-month and down 22.5 RMB/kg year-on-year [35] Investment Analysis Recommendations - The report maintains that 2025 will be a turning point for listed companies, while 2026 will be a turning point for the industry [4] - It suggests focusing on three areas: consumer building materials, cement, and high-prospect sectors [4]

Group 1: Fixed Income Market - The total wealth management scale reached 30.25 trillion yuan by the end of February 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.13 trillion yuan, significantly lower than the average increase of 0.58 trillion yuan from 2021 to 2024 [2][11][12] - The average annualized yield of pure fixed-income wealth management products dropped significantly, with the new issuance benchmark lower limit at 2.32% in February 2025, potentially approaching 2.0% [13][14] - The growth of wealth management scale in 2025 faces significant challenges due to low credit bond yields and insufficient coupon protection, leading to decreased attractiveness of wealth management products [13][14] Group 2: AI Applications - The launch of Manus, a general-purpose AI agent, marks a significant advancement in AI applications, showcasing autonomous planning and learning capabilities [16][18] - Manus employs a multi-agent architecture to enhance task processing efficiency, simulating human workflows for complex tasks [17][18] - Investment opportunities are identified in companies involved in AI applications, particularly those integrating AI agents, such as Focus Technology and Kaiying Network [18] Group 3: Shipping and Oil Trade - OPEC+ announced an increase in oil production by 138,000 barrels per day starting April 2025, aiming to gradually restore production to 2.2 million barrels per day by 2026 [20][22] - The increase in OPEC+ production is expected to boost global compliant oil trade volume by 932,000 barrels per day by the end of 2025, benefiting VLCC shipping [22] - Shipping companies are showing strong intentions to raise freight rates, with Maersk announcing significant price hikes for routes from the Far East to Europe [23][24] Group 4: Precious Metals - Gold prices have been fluctuating around high levels, with recent trends influenced by tariff negotiations and geopolitical developments [26][27] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates, which could create favorable conditions for gold prices [29][30] - Investment recommendations include leading gold companies such as Shandong Gold and those with potential for valuation recovery like Chifeng Jilong Gold [31] Group 5: Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper prices surged due to expectations of increased tariffs and economic stimulus in Europe, with significant price increases observed in both US and London copper markets [32][33] - Aluminum prices are supported by inventory depletion and macroeconomic factors, with expectations of a supply shortage in the coming year [34] - Lithium prices are under pressure due to rising supply and inventory accumulation, with projections indicating a potential stabilization in the range of 70,000 to 80,000 yuan per ton [35]

Group 1 - The report highlights the increasing adoption of solid-state batteries by major automotive manufacturers, driven by policy support and the need for improved battery safety and performance [2][9][17] - Solid-state batteries are expected to replace liquid electrolyte batteries, offering higher energy density and enhanced safety, with oxide materials emerging as the fastest technology route [2][9][19] - The report identifies leading companies in the solid-state battery supply chain, including CATL and BYD, which together account for approximately 60% of total production capacity [2][17][29] Group 2 - The report forecasts that China's solid-state battery shipment volume will reach approximately 18 GWh by 2027, with a market space of around 10 billion yuan in 2023, expected to grow to 29 billion yuan by 2025 [2][25][29] - The overall performance of the North Exchange technology growth stocks has been positive, with a median price change of +10.18% from March 3 to March 7, 2025 [2][14] - The report provides insights into the valuation of various industries, noting that the median P/E ratio for the electronic equipment industry has increased from 50.0X to 59.3X, indicating strong investor interest [2][13][16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The performance of Jitu Express and JD Logistics is expected to improve significantly in 2024 [4] - The shipping industry is facing potential sanctions against Iran, which may benefit VLCC compliance demand and freight rates [5] - The air transport sector is experiencing a long-term low growth in supply, while demand is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery [15] - The express delivery sector shows resilient demand, with terminal prices at historical low levels, limiting downward space [16] Industry Dynamics Tracking Shipping Vessels - The SCFI composite freight index decreased by 5.2% to 1436 points [5] - The BDTI index fell by 0.5% to 882 points, while the BCTI index dropped by 5.3% to 656 points [6] - The BDI index increased by 14.0% to 1263 points, indicating a rise in bulk shipping rates [6] Air Transport - Brunei has implemented visa-free entry for Chinese citizens, which is expected to stimulate international route demand [8] - The low-altitude economy has been highlighted in the government work report, indicating a focus on emerging industries [10] Express Logistics - Jitu Express reported a revenue of $10.26 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.9% [11] - JD Logistics achieved a revenue of 182.84 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.7% [12] Supply Chain Logistics - The logistics sector is showing signs of recovery, with a significant increase in freight logistics activity [13] Sub-industry Data Tracking Express Logistics - In December 2024, the national express service business volume reached 17.8 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [25] Road and Rail - In December 2024, road passenger volume was 987 million, a year-on-year increase of 155.32% [36] Air Transport - In January 2025, civil aviation completed a passenger transport volume of approximately 65 million, a year-on-year increase of 13.2% [38] Shipping Vessels - The Clarksons comprehensive freight rate was $23,843 per day, reflecting a 1.14% increase from the previous week [47]