证券研究报告 公用事业 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 01 月 05 日 证券分析师 板块表现： 负电价对新能源影响分析，从德国说起 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——公用事业 2025 年第 1 周周报（20250103） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 电力：以德国为例 分析负电价成因及对新能源影响 近期德国负电价问题引发关注，据时代周报报道，德国 2024 年负电价市场达到 468 小时，同比增加 60%，本文将对负电价产生的原因以及可能产生的影响进行分析。 联系人 首先解释负电价出现的机制。在电力市场中发电侧和用户侧交易时通常会先签订中 长期电力交易合同，但由于发电侧新能源等电源出力的不可控以及用户侧实际用电 的不可控等因素，实际的发电量或用电量与中长期合同的约定电量会发生偏差，此 时便要引入电力现货市场，以实时发电量和用电量为基础进行交易，一旦供给超出 预期或需求低于预期，则可能导致供大于求进而导致负电价的出现。负电价并不意 味着发电厂一定在"贴钱发电"，但对中长期市场会产生一定影响。 可再生能源增多或用电量减少通常是负电价产生的主要原因。过去几年德国的新 ...

证券研究报告 | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 01 月 05 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 2024 年北交所成交金额近 3 万亿元，新股首日涨幅均值 218% ——北交所周观察第八期（20250105） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 2024 年北交所成交金额近 3 万亿元，社会服务板块领涨。截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日， 北交所总市值 5387 亿元，市值中位数 15 亿元，其中 4 家公司市值超过百亿，11 家 公司市值超过 50 亿元。北证 50 指数在 2024 年 11 月 8 日最高触及 1469.57 点，创 下历史新高。在经历了 2024 年 9-11 月三连涨后，2024 年 12 月北证 50 指数创下 了较大的回撤，单月下跌 19%，但整体 Q4 指数上涨 18%。从成交情况来看，我们 认为 2024 年是北交所流动性改善元 ...

证券研究报告 医药生物 | 化学制药 非金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 01 月 03 日 证券分析师 刘闯 SAC：S1350524030002 liuchuang@huayuanstock.com 李强 SAC：S1350524040001 liqiang01@huayuanstock.com | 基本数据 | | | | 年 | 01 | 02 | 月 | | 2025 | | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | | 14.97 | | | | | 一 年 内 最 低 | 最 | 高 | / | | | | | | | 17.00/11.65 | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | | | 6,369.70 | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | | | 3,936.73 | | | 总股本（百万股） | | ...

煤炭开采 行业定期报告 证券研究报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 01 月 03 日 邹佩轩 SAC：S1350524070004 zoupeixuan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 煤价急跌原因浅析：需求扰动叠加进口煤冲击 投资评级： 看好（首次） ——煤炭行业 2025 年第 1 月月报（20250103） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 煤价回顾：港口单价急跌近百元后暂时企稳。2024 年以来我国动力煤价格整体呈震荡下行态 势，但是进入 11 月中旬后，我国产地及港口煤价快速下跌，连带进口煤价格同步下跌。秦皇 岛 5500 大卡动力末煤单价跌幅近百元，12 月底价格出现小幅反弹，坑口价走势与港口价基 本同步。综合新闻媒体以及贸易网站观察来看，动力煤价格短期急跌超出市场预期。 原因初探：气温偏暖、政策时滞与进口冲击叠加。从港口库存来看，北方主流港 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the emerging satellite perovskite battery sector, which is expected to contribute to new growth opportunities [3][6] - The company has a strong patent portfolio in the satellite perovskite battery technology, indicating a competitive advantage in this field [6][12] Financial Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2024 is 1,639 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28.33% [5] - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is 205 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 17.90% [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to reach 0.84 RMB in 2024, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 27.63 [5] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 10.67% in 2024, increasing to 14.27% by 2026 [5] Market Performance - The closing price of the company's stock is 23.08 RMB, with a market capitalization of approximately 5,672.16 million RMB [2] - The stock has experienced a 52-week high of 25.59 RMB and a low of 13.82 RMB [2] Industry Context - The satellite internet sector is a key development area in China, with significant government initiatives aimed at expanding low Earth orbit satellite deployments [6] - The company is leveraging its technological advancements in perovskite solar cells, which are expected to outperform traditional solar technologies in space applications [6][9]

证券研究报告|行业专题报告 海外 2025年1月2日 大变局时代的核心资产：黄金、加密货币、铀 --2025年海外策略报告 证券分析师 姓名：郑嘉伟 资格编号：S1350523120001 邮箱：zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 证券分析师 姓名：于炳麟 资格编号：S1350524060002 邮箱：yubinglin@huayuanstock.com 联系人 姓名：郑冰倩 资格编号：S1350124050014 邮箱：zhengbingqian@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 报告要点 ◼ 大势判断：主要政见相互矛盾，后续"特朗普交易"将分化 ➢ 特朗普在竞选中胜出后，市场全面开启"特朗普交易"。特朗普的主要执政方针包括减税（利好股市）、贸易壁垒（财政增收）、强储备货币地位&弱货币汇率（强 势美元）、低利率（降低经济成本），以及扩大油气开采（降通胀），市场短期走出了强指数、强美元、降利率、低通胀的走势，仿佛特朗普的执政方针会无死角 实现。但客观的看，减税、降息、加关税以及弱美元都指向通胀，而财政收缩又带来了经济衰退的风险，如果不顺利，接下 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in this regard [2][13][15]. Core Insights - The company has successfully transformed into the semiconductor sector, which has opened up new growth potential. It has established two main business segments: chip distribution and self-developed products, enhancing its growth ceiling [1][29]. - The dual-driven strategy of "distribution + products" focuses on the development of the semiconductor field, with self-developed products expected to create a second growth curve [2][12][70]. - The company has formed strategic partnerships with major players like SK Hynix and MTK, which strengthens its distribution business and customer relationships [12][70]. Summary by Sections 1. Successful Transformation into Semiconductors - The company, originally established in 1998 as a manufacturer of washing machine clutches, has shifted its focus to the semiconductor industry since 2019, following a takeover by cornerstone capital [1][23]. - The transformation has led to a significant increase in revenue from the semiconductor business, while traditional business revenues have decreased [29]. 2. Distribution Business and Self-Developed Products - The distribution segment is deeply integrated with leading brands and has established strong customer relationships with major internet companies like Alibaba and Tencent [12][70]. - The self-developed product line, including enterprise-level SSDs and DRAM, is expected to see rapid growth, with projected revenues of 200 million, 400 million, and 800 million yuan from 2024 to 2026 [7][72]. 3. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 481 million, 529 million, and 653 million yuan from 2024 to 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.38%, 9.87%, and 23.55% respectively [13][15]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are estimated to be approximately 27, 25, and 20 for the years 2024 to 2026, indicating a valuation close to industry averages [13][15].

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - December manufacturing PMI recorded at 50.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points (pct) month-on-month, but remains in the expansion zone[36] - Large enterprises manufacturing PMI at 50.5%, down 0.4pct; medium enterprises at 50.7%, up 0.7pct; small enterprises at 48.5%, down 0.6pct[22] - New orders and new export orders indices both increased by 0.2pct, while the import index rose by 2.0pct[28] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Developments - Non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 52.2%, an increase of 2.2pct from the previous month, indicating significant improvement in non-manufacturing sector[10] - Service industry business activity index at 52.0%, up 1.9pct, the highest since April; construction industry index at 53.2%, up 3.5pct[10] - The overall economic outlook is improving, with expectations for business development stabilizing and increasing[34] Group 3: Economic Policy and Future Outlook - Central economic work conference emphasizes the need for more proactive macro policies for 2025, focusing on fiscal policy and potential changes in U.S. tariffs[34] - The likelihood of economic stabilization is increasing, with a focus on the impact of macroeconomic policies and market conditions[34] - The bond market may face pressure due to increased government bond supply and potential economic recovery exceeding expectations[41]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic (first-time) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the changes in domestic and foreign demand under new circumstances, awaiting the recovery of consumer demand [2] - The textile and apparel industry is expected to see growth opportunities in 2025, particularly in sports apparel and textile manufacturing [4][5] Summary by Sections 1. 2024 Industry Development Review - Brand apparel faced uncertainties due to objective factors affecting industry development [3] - Textile manufacturing saw improved performance for enterprises due to external demand [3] - In November 2024, China's social retail sales showed a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, with a cumulative increase of 3.5% from January to November [11] - The SW textile and apparel index closed at 1496.48 points on December 30, 2024, showing an upward trend in Q4 after a volatile Q2 and Q3 [19] 2. 2025 Industry Opportunity Analysis - The sports apparel market in emerging markets still has room for growth, with China's outdoor industry providing opportunities [4] - The running market in China is expanding, with market share concentrating among leading brands [4] - Textile manufacturing is seeing a concentration of orders towards leading manufacturers [4] 3. Key Coverage Targets - Anta Sports has a solid fundamental outlook with a projected PE of 16.1X for 2025 [5] - Li Ning is considered undervalued with a projected PE of 12.2X for 2025 [5] - The report highlights the strong performance of leading brands and the concentration of market share towards top players in the industry [58]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a strong potential for growth and profitability in the context of the new power system construction [64][67][84]. Core Insights - The company has a solid position in the transformer tap switch market, holding over 80% of the domestic market share and ranking as the second-largest manufacturer globally [64][67]. - The demand for tap switches is expected to increase significantly due to the acceleration of new power system construction and the need for high-voltage transformers [84]. - The company has demonstrated strong financial performance, with a projected net profit growth of 17% to 21% from 2024 to 2026 [67][86]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been deeply involved in the tap switch sector for over 30 years, establishing a robust industry position [1]. - Its main business includes the research, production, sales, and lifecycle maintenance of transformer tap switches, as well as contracting and operation of renewable energy power stations [2][3]. Market Position - The company has a comprehensive product matrix for tap switches, covering voltage levels up to 1000kV, and has a significant number of patents, enhancing its competitive edge [11][20]. - The domestic market for tap switches is concentrated, with the company, MR, and ABB holding over 90% of the market share for 110kV and above [13]. Demand Drivers - The construction of new power systems is expected to sustain long-term demand for tap switches, particularly as the country aims to increase renewable energy capacity [14][17]. - The company has successfully broken the foreign monopoly in the high-voltage tap switch market, particularly for products rated at 500kV and above [19]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue from its core power equipment business reached 16.25 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 82.9% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 14.55% [64][97]. - The projected revenue growth for the power equipment segment is estimated at 16% to 14.6% from 2024 to 2026, with a maintained gross margin of 59% [67][86]. International Expansion - The company has made significant strides in international markets, with overseas revenue reaching 274 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of nearly 80% [25][65]. - The focus on localizing operations in key markets such as Turkey, Russia, and Brazil is expected to enhance responsiveness and market share [27]. Profitability Forecast - The company’s net profit is projected to be 634 million yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 16.93%, and is expected to reach 881 million yuan by 2026 [67][86].