Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 134.69, indicating a potential upside of 73.7% from the current price of HKD 77.55 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's gross margin has improved quarter-on-quarter, and net losses have significantly narrowed, with expectations for a major product cycle in the second half of the year. In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 15.8 billion, a slight decrease of 1.8% quarter-on-quarter, with vehicle sales of 94,000 units, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 2.7% [3][8]. - The company anticipates Q2 2025 revenue to be between RMB 17.5 billion and RMB 18.7 billion, representing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 10.7% to 18.3%, with expected deliveries of 102,000 to 108,000 vehicles, indicating a quarter-on-quarter growth of 8.5% to 14.9% [3][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 30.68 billion - 2024: RMB 40.87 billion - 2025E: RMB 86.17 billion - 2026E: RMB 113.34 billion - 2027E: RMB 125.49 billion - The expected year-on-year growth rates are 14.2% for 2023, 33.2% for 2024, and 110.9% for 2025E [4][13]. - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of RMB 1.5 billion in 2026 and RMB 4.61 billion in 2027, with a significant reduction in net losses expected in the earlier years [4][13]. Product Development and Market Position - The company is set to launch several new models, including the MONA M03 MAX on May 28, which targets the market at the RMB 150,000 level, and the new generation P7 in Q3 2025. The company aims to enhance its product offerings and improve gross margins through these new launches [3][8]. - The company is also planning to introduce humanoid robots by 2026, which will be equipped with advanced AI capabilities, indicating a strategic move into the AI and robotics sector [3][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Lexin Group (LX US), with a target price of $11.80, indicating a potential upside of 36.1% from the current price of $8.67 [2][11]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in asset quality and has increased its dividend payout ratio, which is expected to rise from 20% to 25% in November 2024, and further to 30% in the second half of 2025 [6][8]. - The net profit for Q1 2025 reached 430 million RMB, marking a 113.4% year-on-year increase, attributed mainly to a decrease in provisioning expenses [6][7]. - The report anticipates a substantial growth in net profit for 2025, projected at 1.93 billion RMB, representing a 75% year-on-year increase [6][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 13,057 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 32.3%. However, a decline of 4.6% is expected in 2025 [5][13]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected at 1,100 million RMB, with a slight increase to 1,927 million RMB in 2025 [5][13]. - The company’s net take rate improved to 1.58% in Q1 2025, reflecting a 27 basis points increase from the previous quarter [6][7]. Business Metrics - The company’s loan facilitation for Q1 2025 was 51.6 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year decline of 11% but stabilizing since Q2 2024 [6][7]. - The 90-day delinquency rate improved to 3.3%, down by 0.3 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating an overall enhancement in asset quality [6][7]. - The average loan balance for Q1 2025 was 107 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.7% [6][7]. Forecast Adjustments - The report has adjusted its forecasts for 2025, maintaining the loan facilitation estimate at 218 billion RMB, while increasing the net profit forecast to 1.93 billion RMB, up by 16.1% from previous estimates [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $13.00, indicating a potential upside of 51.3% from the current price of $8.59 [1][11]. Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected earnings, achieving a net profit of RMB 738 million in Q1 2024, which represents a year-on-year increase of 38.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.4%, marking the highest quarterly profit since 2019 [6]. - The international business segment continues to grow, with a year-on-year increase of 36.4% in loan facilitation from international markets, contributing to 5.8% of total loan facilitation [6]. - The company aims to increase the proportion of international business revenue to 25% by 2025 and 50% by 2030 [6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 12,547 million in 2023 to RMB 14,138 million in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.2% [5][8]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 2,341 million in 2023 to RMB 2,763 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15% anticipated for 2025 [5][8]. - The company's net take rate is projected to stabilize around 4.01% in 2025, with a slight decrease from previous estimates [9]. Business Metrics - The company facilitated loans totaling RMB 206.11 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.0% [8]. - The loan balance is expected to reach RMB 74.1 billion by Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 13.5% [7]. - The 90-day overdue rate is projected to be 2.04% in Q1 2025, showing a slight improvement from previous quarters [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Baidu (BIDU US) with a target price of $99.00, indicating a potential upside of 15.8% from the current price of $85.48 [2][4][14]. Core Insights - Baidu's cloud business performance significantly exceeded expectations, while the monetization of AI search is anticipated to take more time [2][7]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw total revenue of 32.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 3%, surpassing market expectations by 5% [7]. - Adjusted net profit for the same period was 6.5 billion RMB, with a net profit margin of 20%, also exceeding expectations [7]. - The report highlights a strong demand for generative AI and large models, contributing to a 42% year-on-year increase in cloud revenue, which now constitutes 26% of core revenue [7][8]. - The report anticipates a continued decline in advertising revenue due to the ongoing transformation of AI search, projecting a 9% decrease for the full year 2025 [7][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Baidu are as follows: 134,598 million RMB in 2023, 133,125 million RMB in 2024, and an estimated 135,508 million RMB in 2025, with a slight growth expected thereafter [3][15]. - Net profit is projected to decline from 28,747 million RMB in 2023 to 21,014 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a significant drop in earnings per share (EPS) from 80.91 RMB to 60.65 RMB [3][15]. - The report notes a decrease in the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 7.6 in 2023 to an estimated 10.2 in 2025, indicating a shift in valuation metrics [3][15]. Business Segment Performance - Baidu's core business revenue is expected to be 25,463 million RMB in Q1 2025, with online marketing services projected to decline by 11% year-on-year [8][9]. - The cloud segment is expected to grow significantly, with revenue estimates of 6,630 million RMB for Q1 2025, reflecting a 42% increase year-on-year [8][9]. - The report also highlights the growth of Baidu's autonomous driving and new business segments, with a 34% increase in revenue year-on-year [8][9]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of AI search product monetization and the sustainability of high growth in the AI cloud segment [7][9]. - Baidu's strategic expansion into international markets, including the launch of Robotaxi services, is expected to enhance its global footprint [7][9]. - The report concludes with a cautious outlook on advertising revenue, projecting continued challenges in the near term due to the transition to AI-driven services [7][9].

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 5 月 22 日 今日焦点 | 证券行业 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 季度盈利高增主要来自投资收益和经纪业务 | 评级: | 领先↑ | | 万丽, CFA, FRM | wanli@bocomgroup.com | | | 哔哩哔哩 1 季度收入同比增 24%，基本符合预期。毛利率同/环比提升 7.9/0.2 个百分点，持续受益于收入结构改善。经调整归母净利润 3.6 亿 元，好于我们/市场预期。 1 季度亮点：春晚合作带动 MAU 环比净增 2800 万，《三谋》拉动游戏 收入同比增 76%，告收入同比增 20%，维持快于行业增速。 展望：我们预计 2 季度收入同比增 19%，其中：1）游戏维持高增长 （+59%），主要考虑《三谋》S8 赛季重度更新。2）广告收入或同比增 18%。3）收入结构优化进一步带动毛利率提升并促进利润释放，预计 2 季度经调整运营利润 5 亿元。 估值：我们基本维持 2025 年收入及利润预期。基于 1 倍 2025 年 PEG， 以及 2025-27 年经调整净利润复合增速 34%，维持目 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted from HKD 605 to HKD 591, indicating a potential upside of 16.9% [1][13]. Core Insights - The company reported first-quarter results that exceeded market expectations, with a revenue of RMB 13.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16%. The adjusted net profit increased by 3% to RMB 4.2 billion, surpassing market forecasts by 10% [5][6]. - The demand for leisure travel remains strong, with expectations for a 14% revenue growth in the second quarter. The company anticipates stable growth in business volume as the competitive landscape improves [5][6]. - Adjustments to revenue and profit forecasts were made due to anticipated impacts from tariff disruptions on outbound business travel [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: The total revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 61.694 billion, with a growth rate of 15.6%. This is a slight decrease from previous estimates [4]. - **Profitability Metrics**: The adjusted operating profit for 2025 is expected to be RMB 18.084 billion, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 17.927 billion, reflecting a net profit margin of 29.1% [4][14]. - **Segment Performance**: The hotel accommodation segment is projected to generate RMB 25.946 billion in 2025, while transportation ticketing is expected to contribute RMB 22.261 billion [4][8]. Market Position and Trends - The company's market capitalization stands at approximately HKD 330.23 billion, with a 52-week high of HKD 586.00 and a low of HKD 310.20 [3]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 3.20 million shares, indicating active market participation [3]. Future Outlook - The company expects continued growth in hotel and transportation segments, with hotel nights in mainland China projected to increase by 10-15% and outbound hotel nights by 15-20% in the upcoming quarters [5][8]. - The competitive landscape is expected to ease some pressure on monetization, allowing for more stable profit margins moving forward [5].

交银国际研究 | 财务数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 22,528 | 26,832 | 30,321 | 32,245 | 34,465 | | 同比增长 (%) | 2.9 | 19.1 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 6.9 | | 净利润 (百万人民币) | (3,425) | (22) | 2,316 | 3,298 | 4,145 | | 每股盈利 (人民币) | (8.29) | (0.05) | 5.47 | 7.86 | 9.93 | | 同比增长 (%) | -51.1 | -99.4 | -10,402.4 NA | 43.8 | 26.3 | | 前EPS预测值 (人民币) | | | 5.46 | 7.49 | 9.97 | | 调整幅度 (%) | | | 0.1 | 5.0 | -0.4 | | 市盈率 (倍) | ns | ns | 24.0 | 16.7 | 13.2 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted from HKD 605 to HKD 591, indicating a potential upside of 16.9% [1][13]. Core Insights - The company reported first-quarter results that exceeded market expectations, with a revenue of RMB 138 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16%. The adjusted net profit increased by 3% to RMB 42 billion, surpassing market forecasts by 10% [5][6]. - The demand for leisure travel remains robust, with expectations for a 14% revenue growth in the second quarter. The company anticipates stable growth in business volume as the competitive landscape improves [5][6]. - Adjustments to revenue and profit forecasts were made due to anticipated impacts from tariff disruptions on business travel outbound demand [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2025E: RMB 61,694 million (down 1.0% from previous forecast) - 2026E: RMB 69,889 million (down 1.6%) - 2027E: RMB 78,816 million (down 2.2%) [4]. - **Profitability Metrics**: - Adjusted operating profit for 2025E is projected at RMB 18,084 million, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 29.3% [4]. - Adjusted net profit for 2025E is expected to be RMB 17,927 million, with a net profit margin of 29.1% [4]. - **Market Position**: - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 330.23 billion, with a 52-week high of HKD 586.00 and a low of HKD 310.20 [3][6]. Earnings Performance Overview - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue increase in various segments: - Hotel accommodation: RMB 5,541 million (up 23% year-on-year) - Transportation ticketing: RMB 5,418 million (up 8%) - Vacation services: RMB 947 million (up 7%) - Corporate travel: RMB 573 million (up 12%) [6]. - The company’s gross profit for the first quarter was RMB 11,125 million, with a gross profit margin of 80.3% [6]. Future Outlook - For the second quarter of 2025, the company expects: - Hotel accommodation revenue to reach RMB 6,000 million (up 17%) - Transportation ticketing revenue to be around RMB 5,300 million (up 9%) - Total revenue projected at RMB 14,600 million (up 14%) [8]. - The company is also focusing on maintaining a competitive edge in the market, with expectations of stable growth in business volume as the industry recovers [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $143 or HKD 223, indicating an expected upside of 18.2% from the current price [6][9]. Core Insights - The company showcased 40+ game updates during its 520 Game Release event, including 9 new games, with 7 being self-developed. The new games cover various themes such as Three Kingdoms, space, Marvel/Destiny IP, ocean adventure, and party life simulation, reflecting a strategy of global positioning, multi-platform deployment, and diverse genre exploration [1][5]. - The company is optimistic about the ongoing positive trends in the gaming industry, particularly in competitive gaming, and is enhancing the longevity of existing games through new gameplay, technological updates, and international events [1][5]. Summary by Sections New Game Releases - "万民长歌：三国" (Three Kingdoms): A self-developed historical strategy game with a seamless 3D map, set to start a trial on Steam on June 10 [2][4]. - "命运：群星" (Destiny: Stars): A mobile shooting game developed in collaboration with Bungie, with pre-registration already open [2][4]. - "漫威秘法狂潮" (Marvel Secret Law): A card RPG mobile game based on the Marvel IP, currently in closed testing with pre-registration available [2][4]. - "unVEIL the world": A strategy card RPG mobile game, developed in collaboration with Shueisha, with a preview released [2][4]. - "头号追击" (Top Pursuit): A PC game combining MOBA, hero shooting, and battle royale elements, set for a paid test from June 6 to June 30 [2][4]. - "无主星渊" (Unclaimed Star Abyss): A space FPS game expected to launch in summer 2025, with a final open test during the Steam Summer Festival [2][4]. - "灵兽大冒险" (Spirit Beast Adventure): A self-developed vertical turn-based MMO mobile game, currently open for pre-registration [2][4]. - "Planet Party Time": A party social game developed by NetEase Rayfire, currently in global testing on Steam, with domestic testing planned for 2025 [2][4]. - "遗忘之海" (Forgotten Sea): An ocean adventure RPG developed by Joker Studio, with pre-registration available [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase (NTES US) with a target price of $143, indicating an expected potential upside of 18.2% from the current price of $120.99 [6][9]. Core Insights - NetEase's game launch event on May 20, 2025, showcased over 40 game updates, including 9 new titles, with 7 being self-developed. The games cover various themes such as Three Kingdoms, space, Marvel/Destiny IP, ocean adventure, and party life simulation, reflecting a strategy of global positioning, multi-platform deployment, and diverse genre exploration [1][5]. - The report expresses optimism about the ongoing positive trend in the gaming sector, highlighting the company's differentiated expansion in competitive gaming genres and the long-term operation of existing games through new gameplay, technological updates, and international events [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections New Game Releases - "万民长歌：三国" (Three Kingdoms) - A self-developed historical strategy game launching a demo on June 10, 2025 [2][4]. - "命运：群星" (Destiny: Stars) - A mobile shooter game developed in collaboration with Bungie, with pre-registration already open [2][4]. - "漫威秘法狂潮" (Marvel Secret Law) - A card RPG mobile game based on the Marvel IP, currently in closed testing [2][4]. - "unVEIL the world" - A strategy card RPG mobile game, developed in collaboration with Shueisha, with a preview released [2][4]. - "头号追击" (Top Pursuit) - A PC game combining MOBA, hero shooting, and battle royale elements, set for a paid test from June 6 to June 30, 2025 [2][4]. - "无主星渊" (Uncharted Star Abyss) - A space FPS game expected to launch in summer 2025, with a final open test during the Steam Summer Festival [2][4]. - "灵兽大冒险" (Spirit Beast Adventure) - A self-developed mobile MMO game currently open for pre-registration [2][4]. - "Planet Party Time" - A party social game for PC, currently in global testing, with a domestic test planned for 2025 [2][4]. - "遗忘之海" (Forgotten Sea) - An ocean adventure RPG developed by the Joker Studio, with pre-registration open [2][4].