《九院中标 5 亿氚工厂项目，NIF 完 成第十次点火—可控核聚变行业周 报》-2025.12.7 《BEST 研究计划首次发布，美国启动 创世纪计划—可控核聚变行业周报》 -2025.11.30 电力 2025 年 12 月 13 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% -7% 0% 7% 14% 22% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 电力 沪深300 相关研究报告 《电改加速深化，预期有望趋稳—电 力行业 2026 年度投资策略》 -2025.11.27 日本首份聚变供电协议签署，BEST 订单持续释放 ——行业周报 | 周磊（分析师） | 黄懿轩（联系人） | | --- | --- | | zhoulei1@kysec.cn | huangyixuan1@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790524090002 | 证书编号：S0790125070014 | 板块回顾：全部细分环节上涨，个股涨多跌少 本周（20251208-20251212）可控核聚变板块下，个股涨多跌少。具体来看，涨 幅前五标的分别为爱科赛博（+34.3%）、永鼎股份（+2 ...

2025 年 12 月 13 日 中央经济工作会议学习 固定收益研究团队 ——事件点评 陈曦（分析师） 刘伟（分析师） chenxi2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 liuwei1@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524070008 中央经济工作会议 2025 年 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行，总结 2025 年经济工 作，分析当前经济形势，部署 2026 年经济工作。 政策目标：重点是物价回升 中央经济工作会议全文中多次涉及物价相关内容，我们认为，物价回升或是 2026 年政策的重要目标。（1）当前存在问题部分，提出"国内供强需弱矛盾突出"， （2）明年工作总部署部分，提出"持续扩大内需、优化供给"，（3）财政政策部 分，提出"规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策"，（4）货币政策部分，提出"把促进 经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"，（5）改革部分，提出 "深入整治'内卷式'竞争"，（6）环保部分，把"双碳"作为环保部分的标题、 且排序大幅提前到第六位，以及提出"深入推进重点行业节能降碳改造"。 我们认为，2026 年的逻辑，或与 2016 年的逻辑是类 ...

| 宏观研究团队 | | | --- | --- | | | 何宁（分析师） 沈美辰（分析师） | | | hening@kysec.cn shenmeichen@kysec.cn | | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 证书编号：S0790524110002 | | | 事件：11 月社会融资规模增长 24885 亿元，预期 20191 万亿，前值 8161 万亿；人民 | | | 币贷款增长 3900 亿元，预期 5043 亿，前值 2200 亿。 | | | 信贷：政策性金融工具效果显现，信贷下行趋势边际趋缓  | | | 月信贷增长 亿元，同比少增 亿元。信贷同比下滑幅度收窄。 11 3900 1900 | | | 1、11 月企业信贷边际回暖，但需求回升有限。企业贷款增长 6100 亿元，同比 | | | 多增 3600 亿元（前值多增 2200 亿元），需求边际改善。结构来看，企业中长贷 | | | 和短贷表现好转，表内票据仍为绝对支撑。企业中长贷录得 1700 亿，同比少增 | | | 400 亿元，同比降幅显著收窄。企业短贷新增 1000 亿元，同比多增 1100 亿元， | | ...

伐谋-中小盘信息更新 铁流股份（603926.SH） 设立子公司全面进军具身智能，深度合作哈特研究院 2025 年 12 月 12 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/12/12 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 15.99 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 19.11/7.72 | | 总市值(亿元) | 37.53 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 36.91 | | 总股本(亿股) | 2.35 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 2.31 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 125.81 | 中小盘研究团队 哈特研究院在机器人环境感知、智能控制等领域拥有扎实的学术底蕴与前沿的科 研能力，不仅承接过多项国家级重点研发计划项目，更构建了国家级博士后工作 站、国家工业机器人检验检测中心等高端科研平台。 公司具备领先的精密加工能力，账上现金充裕有望通过并购整合先进产业 公司主业以离合器为主，下游覆盖国内部分整车厂，产能规模及市场份额均处于 国内领先地位。2018 年通过收购德国 Geiger 进入高精密零部件领域，在新能源 车电机轴等方面具备领先的技术工艺。公司历史上通过多次并购实 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company maintains strategic determination, with pressure being released in an orderly manner. The core product, Guojiao, has kept its price relatively stable without pursuing excessively high growth, resulting in a relatively stable market order. Due to weak consumer demand, profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of 13.04 billion (-9.0%), 13.30 billion (-11.9%), and 13.94 billion (-13.0%) respectively, showing year-on-year changes of -3.2%, +2.0%, and +4.8%. The current stock price corresponds to valuations of 13.7, 13.4, and 12.8 times [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue growth for the first three quarters showed a sequential decline: +2% in Q1, -8% in Q2, and -10% in Q3, indicating a gradual release of pressure on the financial statements without drastic fluctuations [4] - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected at 29.398 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.8% [8] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 87% for the forecast period [10] Market Conditions - The worst period for white liquor demand may have passed, with marginal improvements becoming evident. Short-term demand has been negatively impacted by macroeconomic conditions and unexpected events, but fiscal stimulus policies are expected to enhance economic activity, leading to a slowdown in the decline of white liquor demand [5][6] - The market order for the company remains good, with stable pricing for Guojiao and acceptable profitability for distributors, attributed to the implementation of a strict logistics system since 2024 [6] Valuation Metrics - The expected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 13.7, 13.4, and 12.8 respectively, indicating a gradual decrease in valuation multiples [8][10] - The projected net profit margin for 2025 is 44.4%, with a slight increase to 45.1% in 2026 and 45.9% in 2027 [11]

高 鹏（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090002 2025 年 12 月 12 日 金融工程研究团队 魏建榕（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790519120001 傅开波（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090003 苏俊豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522020001 胡亮勇（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522030001 王志豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522070003 盛少成（分析师） 证书编号：S0790121070009 蒋 韬（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525070001 相关研究报告 《 PCB 板 块 的 资 金 行 为 监 测 》 -2025.08.01 《固态电池板块的资金行为监测》 -2025.09.12 《有色金属板块的资金行为监测》 -2025.10.10 《 消 费 板 块 的 资 金 行 为 监 测 》 -2025.11.14 商业航天板块的资金行为监测 两融余额动向：融资余额是指在融资融券交易中未偿还的融资总金额。一般认为， 融资余额的增加，意味着投资者看多后市。测算结果显示：商业航天板块融资余 额近期快速攀升。 商业航天成分股资金行为解析 机构调 ...

| 日期 | 2025/12/11 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 450.19 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 668.00/198.21 | | 总市值(亿元) | 324.32 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 324.32 | | 总股本(亿股) | 0.72 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 0.72 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 154.44 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -60% 0% 60% 120% 180% 240% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 吉比特 沪深300 相关研究报告 《出海及新游或持续驱动业绩高增长 —公司信息更新报告》-2025.10.29 《Q2 业绩高增，高分红延续，新游及 出海驱动成长 —公司信息更新报告》 -2025.8.20 传媒/游戏Ⅱ 吉比特（603444.SH） 2025 年 12 月 12 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 《新游驱动 2025Q1 业绩改善，关注后 续新产品周期 —公司信息更新报告》 -2025.4.24 《九牧之野》上线在即，看好新游持续驱动公司成长 ——公司信息更新报告 方光照（分析师） fang ...

Economic Outlook - The central economic work conference indicates a tolerance for actual GDP growth rates, focusing on technological breakthroughs and supply-demand optimization, with nominal GDP growth expected to improve[1] - The economic target for 2026 is projected to be between 4.5% and 5%, with actual performance likely closer to the upper limit[2] Policy Direction - Emphasis on "quality" improvement over mere growth, with a focus on technological advancements and balanced supply-demand structures[2] - Anticipated price increases and improved corporate profits due to supply-demand structure optimization, benefiting industries related to reducing "involution" competition[2] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is expected to remain around 4%, with total local special bond issuance projected at approximately 4.4 to 4.5 trillion yuan[4] - The broad fiscal deficit rate is estimated to be around 8.1% for 2026, indicating no significant increase in fiscal strength[4] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will likely remain moderately loose, with potential for rate cuts, although the space for such actions is limited[5] - The focus will be on stabilizing growth and managing inflation, with flexible use of monetary tools to support demand and innovation[5] Technological Focus - The conference highlights the urgency of technological breakthroughs, particularly in AI and emerging industries, to foster new growth drivers[6] - Plans to establish international technology innovation centers in key regions like Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area[6]

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, bringing the rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75% [10] - The Fed's internal divisions have become more pronounced, with differing opinions on future rate cuts, indicating limited room for further reductions in 2026 [12][11] - Market risk appetite has slightly improved following the Fed's announcement, with notable increases in major stock indices and a decline in 10-year Treasury yields [13] Group 2: Industry Analysis - Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector is increasingly recognized as a strategic emerging industry, with government support highlighted in recent work reports [24][25] - Low Earth orbit resources are becoming a competitive focus, with significant advancements in satellite constellations, particularly by SpaceX [26] - The commercial aerospace ecosystem in China is developing, emphasizing cost reduction and efficiency as key drivers for scaling [27] - Investment opportunities are identified in the commercial aerospace sector, with specific companies recommended for their potential benefits from industry growth [28] Group 3: Company Analysis - Wuliangye - Wuliangye's core product price has decreased from 930 to around 800 yuan, raising concerns about sustainability due to supply-demand imbalances [31] - The company has adjusted its supply strategy in response to market conditions, leading to a significant revenue decline in Q3 [32] - Despite short-term challenges, the brand's strong consumer base and strategic adjustments are expected to stabilize prices in the future [35]

事件点评 2025 年 12 月 11 日 重视"通胀正常化"的可能性 固定收益研究团队 ——2025 年 11 月价格数据点评 陈曦（分析师） 王帅中（联系人） chenxi2@kysec.cn wangshuaizhong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 证书编号：S0790125070016 事件：国家统计局公布 2025 年 11 月价格数据，11 月 CPI 环比下降 0.1%（前值 为+0.2%，下同），同比上涨 0.7%（+0.2%）；核心 CPI 环比下降 0.1%（+0.2%）， 同比上涨 1.2%（+1.2%）；PPI 环比上涨 0.1%（+0.1%），同比下降 2.2%（-2.1%）。 影响价格数据的可能性因素 11 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.7%，为 2024 年 3 月份以来最高值。CPI 同比涨幅基本与 市场预期保持一致，Wind 统计的 19 家机构预测中位数为+0.69%，平均数为 +0.67%。 CPI 同比涨幅的扩大主要是食品价格由降转涨拉动，同时金价价格上涨的影响 仍在持续。蔬菜价格的反季节性上涨导致了错位，11 月鲜菜价格上涨 14.5%，影 ...