Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant increase in equity allocation among insurance companies, indicating a proactive approach to the upcoming market opportunities [4] - The merger of CICC with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities is expected to enhance CICC's capital strength and market position, moving towards becoming a leading international investment bank [7] - The report emphasizes the potential for improved return on equity (ROE) post-merger, with a focus on two categories of brokers: those with strong fundamentals and low valuations, and those with potential merger opportunities [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The non-bank financial sector is showing a positive trend, with a projected performance exceeding the overall market [2][3] Mergers and Acquisitions - CICC plans to merge with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, with the merger expected to be completed within 25 trading days [4] - The merger will result in a significant increase in CICC's net assets, elevating its ranking in the industry [6] Financial Metrics - Post-merger, CICC's total assets and net assets are projected to reach 10096 billion and 1715 billion respectively, improving its asset-to-equity ratio and market ranking [6] - The expected price-to-book (PB) ratios for CICC, Dongxing Securities, and Xinda Securities are 1.84, 1.32, and 3.04 respectively, with a combined PB of 2.02 [5] Market Position - The merger will expand CICC's network coverage, enhancing its brokerage business and improving its market ranking from 9th to 8th [6] - The report suggests that the merger will open up new opportunities for leverage and cross-border business [6]

2025 年 11 月 20 日 其 他 研 究 开源晨会 1120 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 2.389 | | 石油石化 | 1.674 | | 国防军工 | 1.109 | | 美容护理 | 1.089 | | 银行 | 0.915 | 数据来源：聚源 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 综合 | -3.082 | | 房地产 | -2.092 | | 传媒 | -1.720 | | 建筑材料 | -1.712 | | 商贸零售 | -1.702 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 纪 要 晨会纪要 吴梦迪（分析师） ——晨会纪要 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 晨 会 数据来源：聚源 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 沪深300 创业板指 wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【固定收益】税收收入延续高位增长，四季度政策加码发力——2025 年 10 月财 政数据点评-20251119 行业 ...

蒋颖（分析师） 陈光毅（联系人） jiangying@kysec.cn 机械设备/自动化设备 华工科技（000988.SZ） 三大业务共振，筑就 AI 光电领军企业 2025 年 11 月 19 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/11/18 | 证书编号：S0790523120003 | | --- | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 71.79 | | | 一年最高最低(元) | 100.89/32.33 | | | 总市值(亿元) | 721.85 | | | 流通市值(亿元) | 721.48 | | | 总股本(亿股) | 10.06 | | | 流通股本(亿股) | 10.05 | | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 466.33 | | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 华工科技 沪深300 风险提示：算力产业发展不及预期，新能源、船舶、消费电子等行业发展不及 预期，国际贸易风险。 | 财务摘要和估值指标 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [1] Core Views - The current credit growth continues to slow down, and social financing growth is also declining from high levels. Although policies are in place to support the market, their impact on demand recovery has not yet been reflected due to time lags. The retail risk for listed banks has increased but remains manageable, supported by substantial provisioning and stable dividend policies, which together form a "stable anchor" for the "dividend revaluation" logic of banks. The banks' advantages in capital markets, wealth management, and investment banking create a "growth sail" for differentiated valuations. Bank valuations are still at historically low levels, and medium to long-term funds have the potential for allocation, making increased allocation to the banking sector a favorable choice under the "high cut low" and balanced allocation strategy. It is recommended to invest in state-owned banks as they still offer good value compared to risk-free interest rates. Specific recommendations include CITIC Bank, benefiting from China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Chongqing Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [7]. Summary by Sections Deposit and Loan Growth - The deposit and loan growth rates for small and medium-sized banks continued to recover, with the national large banks' deposit-loan growth rate difference at -1.31% at the end of October, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points from the end of September. The four major banks' deposit-loan growth rate difference narrowed by 0.02 percentage points to -2.10%. Small and medium-sized banks recorded a deposit-loan growth rate difference of 3.74%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points [3][4]. Deposit Structure - In October, both large and small banks saw an acceleration in deposit growth, with large banks and small banks' deposit growth rates at 7.40% and 9.33%, respectively, increasing by 0.16 and 0.22 percentage points month-on-month. However, corporate deposits faced pressure, with both large and small banks experiencing negative growth in corporate deposits for the month. The increase in deposits was primarily driven by non-bank contributions, indicating a trend of "deposit migration" [4][5]. Credit Demand and Supply - The overall credit volume and structure remain poor, with small and medium-sized banks increasing lending. The total loans from deposit-taking financial institutions to residents and enterprises saw a year-on-year decrease. The credit growth is under pressure due to unfulfilled demand and other factors, including banks completing most of their annual credit targets in the first three quarters and a lack of actual credit demand conversion from policy measures [6]. Investment Recommendations - Given the current environment, increasing allocation to the banking sector is recommended as it presents a favorable opportunity for investors. The report emphasizes the potential of state-owned banks and suggests specific banks for investment based on their performance and market conditions [7].

Group 1: Macro Economic Overview - The broad fiscal deficit is expected to remain within a controllable range, with October's general public budget revenue at 22,614 billion yuan, and expenditure at 17,761 billion yuan [7] - Tax revenue showed stable growth, with October's tax revenue totaling 20,700 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year increase [8] - Fiscal expenditure in October decreased by 9.8% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in spending growth, particularly in infrastructure-related expenditures [9] Group 2: Fixed Income Market Insights - The total bond custody amount at the Shanghai Clearing House reached 49.70 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 10,427.42 billion yuan, indicating a significant rebound in bond market activity [13][14] - The increase in bond custody was primarily driven by negotiable certificates of deposit, which contributed a net increase of 7,214.10 billion yuan [15] - The overall leverage ratio in the bond market remained stable at 106.90%, with commercial banks showing an increase in leverage [17] Group 3: Banking Sector Analysis - Listed banks are under pressure to sell off AC (Asset Classification) bonds to realize floating profits, with a significant decline in AC account investment growth since 2024 [19] - It is estimated that listed banks sold approximately 2 trillion yuan in bonds to realize floating profits in the first three quarters of 2025, with state-owned banks having the highest floating profits [20] - For Q4 2025, it is projected that listed banks will need to sell around 900 billion yuan in bonds to maintain non-interest income levels [21] Group 4: Chemical Industry Outlook - The chemical industry is expected to enter a new prosperity cycle, driven by the end of capital expenditure and a recovering supply-demand balance [25][26] - The industry is witnessing a dual uplift in performance and valuation, with major chemical product prices at historically low levels, indicating potential for recovery [26] - The "anti-involution" measures are being implemented across various sectors, providing a framework for other sub-industries to follow, which may lead to further optimization of the supply-demand structure [27] Group 5: Electronics Sector Insights - Transsion Holdings, a leading brand in emerging markets, is focusing on high-end and AI-integrated products, with a projected net profit of 3.147 billion yuan for 2025 [29][30] - The company is expanding its market presence in Africa and other emerging regions, leveraging its brand and channel advantages [30][31] - The diversification into AIoT and home appliances is expected to create additional growth opportunities for the company [32]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the sulfonamide raw material drug industry, with a comprehensive product chain and competitive advantages. It has achieved significant revenue and net profit growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 164 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.89%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 49.05 million yuan, up 47.16% year-on-year [3][49] - The company has established strong barriers to entry in the market through its technical capabilities and stable customer relationships, allowing it to expand into high-value human pharmaceutical raw materials [4][30] - The regulatory environment is improving, which is expected to enhance the competitive landscape, with the company being less affected by the "antibiotic ban" and "reduction" policies [5] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company focuses on the research, production, and sales of veterinary and pharmaceutical raw materials and intermediates, recognized as one of the most competitive enterprises in the sulfonamide raw material drug sector [3][14] - It has been designated as a national high-tech enterprise since 2016, maintaining its status through continuous innovation and quality control [3][23] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 164 million yuan, a 40.89% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 49.05 million yuan, reflecting a 47.16% growth [49] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 66 million, 76 million, and 87 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.66, 0.76, and 0.87 yuan per share [3] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has a deep customer resource barrier, with long-term stable relationships with major clients, which enhances its pricing power and profit margins [30] - It has received multiple certifications for its products, including approvals from the National Medical Products Administration and the European Medicines Agency, which facilitate entry into high-end markets [4][34] Industry Trends - The raw material drug market in China reached 426.5 billion yuan in 2021, with a growth rate of 10.98% from 2018 [5] - The veterinary raw material drug market is showing signs of recovery, with improved supply-demand dynamics and rising prices for key products [39][41]

计算机/软件开发 浪潮数字企业 （00596.HK） 2025 年 11 月 18 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/11/17 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 8.300 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 11.130/3.000 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 95.70 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 95.70 | | 总股本(亿股) | 11.53 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 11.53 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 26.4 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -80% 0% 80% 160% 240% 320% 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 浪潮数字企业 恒生指数 相关研究报告 《AI 项目场景更加丰富，看好公司业 绩增长持续性 —港股公司信息更新 报告》-2025.9.5 《2024 年盈利质量高，业绩持续释放 驱动估值弹性 —港股公司信息更新 报告》-2025.4.3 拟引入长期战略资金+注册地迁移至中国香港，看好 公司价值公允回归 ——港股公司信息更新报告 | 初敏（分析师） | 杨哲（分析师） | | | | --- | ...

事件点评 2025 年 11 月 18 日 上清所托管量环比高增，债市整体杠杆率持平 固定收益研究团队 ——2025 年 10 月债市托管数据点评 陈曦（分析师） 王帅中（联系人） chenxi2@kysec.cn wangshuaizhong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 证书编号：S0790125070016 事件：10 月末，上清所债券托管量 49.70 万亿元（前值为 48.66 万亿元，下同）， 月净增 10427.42 亿元（324.41 亿元）；中债登债券托管量 127.07 万亿元（126.80 万亿元），月净增 2696.18 亿元（8887.16 亿元）。上清所、中债登合计债券托管 量 176.77 万亿元（175.46 万亿元），月净增 13123.60 亿元（9211.57 亿元）。 上清所，同业存单贡献当月主要增量，月净增 7214.10 亿元；公司信用类债券月 净增 1468.78 亿元；利率债月净增 655.00 亿元。 中债登，地方政府债贡献当月主要增量，月净增 2618.95 亿元；利率债月净增 4529.24 亿元；信用债月净增-1833.05 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that listed banks have sold approximately 2 trillion yuan in bonds to realize floating profits from their available-for-sale (AC) accounts in the first three quarters of 2025 [13] - It is estimated that in Q4 2025, listed banks will need to sell about 900 billion yuan in bonds to support non-interest income [10] - The cumulative floating profit of listed banks' AC accounts is approximately 3.3 trillion yuan as of the end of H1 2025, accounting for 58.3% of the total revenue for the year 2024 [30] Summary by Sections Investment Growth - Since 2024, the investment growth rate of listed banks' AC accounts has consistently lagged behind the growth rate of financial investments, with a year-on-year growth of 11.5% in Q3 2025, which is 4.28 percentage points lower than that of financial investments [13][15] - The growth rates for different types of banks from Q2 2023 to Q2 2025 are as follows: state-owned banks 14.7%, joint-stock banks 2.8%, city commercial banks 9.7%, and rural commercial banks -3.8% [13] Bond Selling and Profit Realization - The report estimates that the floating profit realization ratio for listed banks' AC accounts in the first three quarters of 2025 is about 3.06%, with a bond selling scale of approximately 2.04 trillion yuan [36] - The selling proportions for different bank types are: state-owned banks 2.26%, joint-stock banks 5.29%, city commercial banks 5.57%, and rural commercial banks 9.65%, with rural commercial banks showing the highest selling intensity [36] Financial Performance - The floating profit from the sale of bonds in the first three quarters of 2025 is estimated to be 1,078 billion yuan, which represents 2.50% of the total revenue, an increase of 1.59 percentage points compared to 2024 [22][25] - The breakdown of floating profit realization ratios by bank type is as follows: state-owned banks 2.24%, joint-stock banks 2.44%, city commercial banks 3.79%, and rural commercial banks 5.52% [22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a bottom-line allocation to large state-owned banks, with beneficiaries including Agricultural Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [6] - Core allocations should focus on leading comprehensive banks such as China Merchants Bank, CITIC Bank, and Industrial Bank [6] - Flexible allocations can be made to banks like Jiangsu Bank, Chongqing Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [6]

Revenue Insights - In October, the narrow fiscal revenue reached 22,614 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.2%[2] - Tax revenue in October totaled 20,700 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.6%[2] - Personal income tax saw a significant rise of 27%, up 11 percentage points from the previous period[2] Expenditure Trends - General budget expenditure in October was 17,761 billion yuan, down 9.8% year-on-year[2] - Cumulative expenditure growth for the first ten months decreased to 2%, reflecting a slowdown[2] - Specific categories like agriculture, community affairs, and transportation saw declines of 33%, 24%, and 15% respectively in expenditure[2] Fiscal Gap Projections - The estimated fiscal revenue gap for the year could range from 0 to 1,200 billion yuan, depending on revenue growth trends[3] - If the government fund revenue continues at October's year-on-year rate, the gap could reach approximately 2,148 billion yuan[3] - In a pessimistic scenario, the total revenue gap could exceed 8,000 billion yuan, but overall remains within a controllable range[3] Government Fund Performance - Government fund income in October was 3,756 billion yuan, a decline of 18% year-on-year[3] - Fund expenditure also fell significantly, with a 38% decrease to 5,968 billion yuan in October[3] - The issuance of special bonds in November is expected to increase, with 2,669 billion yuan already issued by mid-November[3]