北交所策略专题报告 2025 年 11 月 16 日 北交所成中小企业并购重组首选地，华光源海收购汉牛物流布局钢铁物流 ——北交所并购专题报告第十一期 北交所研究团队 诸海滨（分析师） zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 北京市发布《助力并购重组意见》支持北交所成为中小企业并购重组首选地 从新"国九条"到"并购六条"，2024 年起，并购重组市场迎来了诸多积极信号。 产业整合、跨界并购，为产业发展注入了新的动力。2025 年 10 月 29 日，中共 北京市委金融委员会办公室制定《中共北京市委金融委员会办公室等七部门关于 助力并购重组促进上市公司高质量发展的意见》，意见涵盖六条核心内容，其中 特别提到发挥证券交易场所并购重组主阵地作用，支持北京证券交易所、全国中 小企业股份转让系统股份有限公司发挥服务创新型中小企业主阵地优势，成为 中小企业并购重组交易首选地，逐步做大影响力。我们认为，定位为主要服务创 新型中小企业的北交所，能够及时把握并购机遇。在北交所公司并购的趋势方向 上，应重点关注：（1）同一集团内优质资源整合；（2）新质生产力行业外延并 购；（3）"强链补链" ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights the launch of the MAISEAT platform by Damai International, which connects domestic and international performance services, enhancing the ticketing experience for global users [13][15] - The camping economy in China is projected to reach a core market size of CNY 213.97 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 60.4%, indicating significant potential for outdoor activities [18][22] - The advertising industry is undergoing a transformation towards AI-driven personalized marketing, with major companies like Google and Meta adopting advanced AI advertising engines [30][32] Summary by Sections 1. Offline Entertainment - Damai International has launched a global performance service platform, MAISEAT, which offers ticketing services for various events in multiple languages and payment options [13][15] - The Asian market for online ticketing is expected to grow rapidly, benefiting from increased middle-class consumption and government support for music and sports tourism [15][17] 2. Camping and Barbecue - The camping economy is expected to grow significantly, with the core market projected to reach CNY 213.97 billion by 2024, driven by a growing interest in outdoor lifestyles [18][22] - The barbecue market is also expanding, with an expected size of CNY 316.2 billion by 2025, growing at a CAGR of 12% from 2024 to 2029 [25][20] 3. AI and Advertising - The advertising industry is shifting towards AI-driven models, enhancing targeting and efficiency, with Google and Meta leading the way in adopting AI technologies [30][32] - The adoption rates for AI advertising products have surged, with Google's AI engine seeing a rise from 2% in Q4 2021 to 59% in Q4 2024 [30][32] 4. E-commerce and Beauty Care - The Double Eleven shopping festival in 2025 saw a robust performance across e-commerce platforms, with total sales reaching CNY 16,191 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.3% [39][43] - Beauty care categories performed steadily, with Tmall maintaining a strong market position, particularly in high-end brands [49][51]

传媒 2025 年 11 月 16 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 传媒 沪深300 相关研究报告 头部游戏出海延续亮眼表现，抽成政策助小程序游戏迎新机，坚定布局游戏 （1）出海：根据 AppMagic，10 月点点互动旗下《Whiteout Survival》和《Kingshot》 稳居中国手游出海收入榜前二，AppMagic 估算两款产品分成后收入合计超 1.3 亿美元，点点互动旗下另一款《Tasty Travels》排名第 19，较上月继续提升，另 外世纪华通股票已于 11 月 12 日撤销其他风险警示，或改善交易流动性，且后续 有望入选指数，迎来增量被动配置资金。（2）小程序游戏：11 月 14 日，微信 宣布将为开发者提供接入苹果"小程序合作伙伴计划"服务，苹果对参与计划的 微信小程序游戏流水仅抽成 15%（而 App 游戏抽成为 30%），或推动更多 iOS 端 App 游戏转向小程序游戏以降低流水分成，提升利润率，2024 年及 2025H1 中国小程序游戏市场规模达 398/ ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant decline in monthly sales data across various city tiers, indicating that all levels of cities have entered a downward trend [5][14] - The report anticipates continued pressure on new construction and completion data for the year, with a notable decrease in both metrics [6][19] - There is an ongoing decline in development investment, which is expected to impact the willingness to start new projects [7][23] - The pressure on real estate companies' cash flow is increasing, with a notable drop in funds available to developers [8][27] - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the market, with expectations of low sales continuing into the fourth quarter [8][34] Summary by Sections Monthly Sales Data - From January to October 2025, the national sales area of commercial housing was 720 million square meters, down 6.8% year-on-year, with residential sales area down 7.0% [5][14] - In October 2025, the sales area and amount of commercial housing decreased by 19.6% and 24.3% year-on-year, respectively [5][14] Construction Data - New construction area from January to October 2025 was 491 million square meters, down 19.8% year-on-year, with residential new construction down 19.3% [6][19] - Completion area during the same period was 349 million square meters, down 16.9% year-on-year [6][19] Development Investment - Real estate development investment from January to October 2025 was 7.36 trillion yuan, down 14.7% year-on-year, with residential investment down 13.8% [7][23] - The report indicates that the decline in investment is expected to continue due to weak sales recovery [7][23] Funding for Developers - Funds available to real estate developers totaled 7.89 trillion yuan from January to October 2025, down 9.7% year-on-year [8][27] - The report notes that all funding sources, including domestic loans and personal mortgage loans, have seen increased year-on-year declines [8][31] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on developers with strong fundamentals and those that can cater to improving customer needs, such as Greentown China and China Overseas Development [8][34] - It also suggests companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, like China Resources Land and Longfor Group [8][34]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The insurance index increased by 2.63%, outperforming the CSI 300 index which decreased by 1.08%, indicating a positive outlook for the insurance sector as companies prepare for the 2026 "opening red" [5] - The insurance sector's equity asset allocation has significantly increased in Q3, with a total investment balance reaching 37.46 trillion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.4% and a year-on-year increase of 16.5% [6] - The brokerage sector continues to show high performance, with daily average stock fund turnover reaching 2.50 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 77.2% [7] Summary by Sections Insurance Sector - In Q3, the balance of stocks and funds reached 5.59 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 35.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.3%, with equity investments now accounting for 15.5% of total assets [6] - Major life insurance companies have launched new products for 2026, with dividend insurance being a market leader, comprising 45.9% of new life insurance products [6] - The long-term interest rates are stabilizing, which is expected to improve the profitability of insurance companies, leading to a potential increase in return on equity (ROE) and valuation recovery [6] Brokerage Sector - The average daily turnover for stock funds is 2.50 trillion, with a year-to-date average of 2.03 trillion, reflecting strong market activity [7] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is planning strategic tasks for the capital market during the 14th Five-Year Plan, aiming for a more resilient and attractive market [7] - The brokerage sector is expected to see improved profitability driven by core businesses such as public funds and investment banking, with a focus on strategic allocation opportunities [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [2] Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant increase in its non-net profit, projected to grow by 54% year-on-year by Q3 2025, driven by the new personal care fragrance segment [4] - The company has released its Q1-Q3 2025 financial results, reporting a revenue of 172 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 50% [4] - The second phase of the production project has entered trial production, which is anticipated to enhance the company's product variety and competitive advantage in the market [5] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 172 million yuan, up 10.01% year-on-year, with a net profit of 16.57 million yuan, down 49.58% [4] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 38 million, 47 million, and 62 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.49, 0.61, and 0.80 yuan per share [4] - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 238 million yuan in 2025 to 330 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 19.7% [8] Production and Market Outlook - The second phase of the production project includes the production of various fragrance products, which will enhance the company's offerings in the personal care industry [5] - The fragrance and flavor market in China is projected to exceed 50 billion yuan by 2026, driven by rising living standards and consumption upgrades [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical raw materials industry is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the price of R134a has exceeded expectations, indicating a significant value proposition in the refrigerant sector, and suggests that long-term positioning is timely [4] - The fluorochemical index has shown a strong performance, increasing by 7.71% and outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 [6][25] - The report emphasizes the ongoing upward trend in refrigerant prices, particularly for R134a, R32, and R125, while noting a structural differentiation in the market [22][23] Summary by Sections 1. Fluorochemical Industry Overview - The fluorochemical market is experiencing a positive trend, with R134a prices rising significantly due to concentrated purchasing demand, reaching 60,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 6,000 yuan/ton [9][22] - The overall market sentiment for fluorite is weak, with prices for 97% fluorite powder averaging 3,391 yuan/ton, down 0.96% from the previous week [19][33] 2. Refrigerant Market Trends - As of November 14, refrigerant prices are as follows: R32 at 63,000 yuan/ton, R125 at 45,500 yuan/ton, R134a at 55,000 yuan/ton, and R410a at 53,500 yuan/ton, with R134a showing a weekly increase of 1.85% [21][24] - The report notes that the refrigerant market is characterized by a strong upward trend for R32 and R134a, while R125 remains stable, and other products like R404 and R507 are experiencing downward pressure [22][23] 3. Beneficiary Companies - Recommended stocks include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Haohua Technology, with other beneficiaries being Dongyangguang, Yonghe Co., Dongyue Group, and Xinzhoubang [11][23]

事件点评 2025 年 11 月 16 日 经济短期回落，政策发力下全年经济发展目标可期 固定收益研究团队 ——2025 年 10 月经济数据点评 陈曦（分析师） 王帅中（联系人） chenxi2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 wangshuaizhong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070016 事件：国家统计局公布 2025 年 10 月经济数据，规上工增当月同比增长 4.9%（前 值为+6.5%，下同），环比增长 0.17%（+0.64%）；社零当月同比增长 2.9%（+3.0%）， 固投累计同比减少 1.7%（-0.5%）。 10 月生产消费短期回落的可能原因 10 月规模以上工业增加值同比环比均有所回落。10 月生产端受双节假期前部分 需求提前释放，企业为应对节前备货而提前安排生产，叠加中美关系再度紧张对 制造业出口的扰动及工作日数量减少的影响，规模以上工业增加值同比环比均有 所下滑。此前公布的 PMI 数据中已有显示，10 月制造业生产指数为 49.7%，5 月以来首次落入收缩区间，同时 10 月出口自 2025 年 3 月以来首次负增长，两项 数据已对 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) has evolved from a "testing ground" to a main battleground for specialized and innovative enterprises, with 282 listed companies and a total market capitalization of 900.835 billion yuan as of November 14, 2025 [2][12][14] - Among the listed companies, 254 are classified as specialized and innovative "little giants," accounting for 90.07% of the total, with 152 being national-level little giants [2][33] - The report identifies key industry chains within the BSE, including smart connected new energy vehicles, hydrogen energy, new materials, innovative pharmaceuticals, and artificial intelligence [2][38] Group 2 - The BSE's market performance shows a decline in the North BSE 50 index, which reported 1,514.20 points, with a TTM PE ratio of 71.80X, while the specialized and innovative index reported 2,500.55 points with a TTM PE of 80.59X [3][62][66] - The average market capitalization of BSE companies is lower than that of the ChiNext and STAR Market, with the average market cap at 31.94 million yuan compared to 126.11 million yuan and 175.43 million yuan respectively [22][23] - The report notes that the liquidity of the BSE has improved, with the turnover rate now higher than that of the STAR Market and slightly above the ChiNext [41][42][47] Group 3 - The report indicates that the IPO review process is active, with two companies approved and three pending approval, reflecting a steady increase in the number of companies entering the market [3][28] - The report emphasizes the growing interest from public funds in the BSE, with 39 public institutions investing in BSE stocks by mid-2025, marking a significant increase in both the number of institutions and the amount invested [45][46] - The BSE is expected to enhance its index system and introduce the North BSE 50 ETF, which could further improve liquidity and attract more institutional investors [50][51]

2025 年 11 月 16 日 有机硅减产助推供需边际改善，北交所相关产业链公司景气有望上行 ——北交所化工新材专题报告 北交所研究团队 诸海滨（分析师） 北交所策略专题报告 zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 有机硅供需将得到边际改善，产业链有望迎来景气上行周期 近期，有机硅 DMC 市场价格上行。根据买化塑研究院监测，国内有机硅 DMC 价格已攀升至 12000-12500 元/吨，单日最大涨幅达 1000 元/吨，较 11 月初累计 上涨超 1000 元/吨。这场价格反弹并非偶然，而是行业在"反内卷"共识下，供 需格局深度调整的必然结果，标志着持续两年多的行业低迷期有望终结，底部反 转信号日益清晰。2025 年 11 月以来，行业协同行动进入实质性落地阶段。11 月 12 日，鲁西化工牵头召开行业会议，达成"减产 30%+涨价至 13500 元/吨"的 双重目标，计划 12 月初启动减产，半个月内完成价格抬升。会议成果迅速显现， 11 月 13 日已有单体厂将报价上调至 12500 元/吨并限量接单，合盛硅业、新安股 份等龙头企业集体封盘，市场预计主流大厂后续 ...