2025 年 07 月 18 日 债券收益率，或滞后于股市上行 固定收益研究团队 ——固收专题 陈曦（分析师） 刘伟（分析师） （3）趋势性跷跷板。比如，2017 年、2020 年 5-12 月，股市上涨、债券收益率 上行；2018 年，股市下跌、债券收益率下行。 股债趋势性跷跷板的本质是经济 除 2014-2015 年之外，股市趋势性上涨往往处于经济趋势好转时期，对应债券收 益率呈现趋势性上行。 值得注意的是，股市趋势上涨领先于债券收益率上行。比如，2008 年 11 月股市 开始上涨，债券为 2009 年 1 月；2016 年 2 月股市开始上涨，债券为 2016 年 8 月；2019 年 1 月股市开始上涨，债券为 2019 年 4 月；2020 年 3 月股市开始上涨， 债券为 2020 年 5 月。 股市趋势上涨，领先于债券的四点逻辑 chenxi2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 liuwei1@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524070008 股债跷跷板的三个维度 （1）日内跷跷板。比如，2025 年 2-3 月，债券跟随港股反向波动，以及近期债 券跟随 A 股 ...

2025 年 07 月 18 日 开源晨会 0718 ——晨会纪要 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 数据来源：聚源 -16% 0% 16% 32% 48% 64% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 行业名称 涨跌幅(%) 国防军工 2.738 通信 2.406 电子 2.182 医药生物 1.774 综合 1.424 数据来源：聚源 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 银行 | -0.419 | | 交通运输 | -0.386 | | 环保 | -0.261 | | 公用事业 | -0.244 | | 建筑装饰 | -0.190 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【宏观经济】美国通胀如期反弹，但对联储降息影响或较小——美国 6 月 CPI 点 评-20250716 美国公布 2025 年 6 月最新通胀数据。其中 CPI 同比上升 2.7%，环比上升 0.3%， 同比增速超市场预期；核心 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][3] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant turnaround in profitability in the first half of 2025, with a forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders of 480-520 million yuan and a non-GAAP net profit of 290-330 million yuan, marking a year-on-year recovery [3] - The core gaming business is projected to perform steadily, with a non-GAAP net profit of 320-360 million yuan expected in the first half of 2025, driven by the new game "Zhu Xian World" and continued growth in esports revenue [3] - The upcoming release of the supernatural urban open-world RPG "Yihuan" is anticipated to contribute significantly to the company's revenue growth, with positive market feedback from recent tests [3] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 6,862 million yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.2%, and net profits of 788 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 161.2% [4][6] - The gross margin is expected to be 60.6% in 2025, with a net margin of 11.5% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.41 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35.8 times [4][6] Product Pipeline - The product pipeline is clear, with "Yihuan" expected to accelerate its launch, potentially driving rapid revenue growth [3] - The sequel to the "Zhu Xian" IP, "Zhu Xian 2," is scheduled for public release on August 7, further solidifying the company's position in the MMORPG segment [3]

2. 能源通胀负增收窄，核心商品对通胀贡献度继续提升。具体而言，6 月能源 项同比下降 0.8%，降幅较 5 月份收窄 2.7 个百分点；6 月份食品项同比上升 3.0%，较 5 月份上升 0.1 个百分点。核心 CPI 方面，6 月核心 CPI 同比上升 2.9%，环比上升 0.2%。同比增速、环比增速均边际走强。核心商品同比增速较 5 月上升 0.42 个百分点至 0.7%；核心服务同比上升 3.616%，较 5 月份上升约 0.06 个百分点，基本持平。 宏观经济点评 2025 年 07 月 16 日 美国通胀如期反弹，但对联储降息影响或较小 ——美国 6 月 CPI 点评 | 何宁（分析师） | 潘纬桢（分析师） | | --- | --- | | hening@kysec.cn | panweizhen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | 证书编号：S0790524040006 | 事件：美国公布 2025 年 6 月最新通胀数据。其中 CPI 同比上升 2.7%，环比上 升 0.3%，同比增速超市场预期；核心 CPI 同比上升 2.9%，环比上升 0.2%，环 比 ...

Group 1: Macro Economic Overview - Q2 2025 GDP shows resilience with a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, supported by export gains offsetting construction sector drag [3][4][9] - The industrial production in June increased by 1.0 percentage points to 6.8% year-on-year, while the service sector remained stable [3] - The disposable income growth for residents slightly decreased to 5.4%, with consumer spending showing marginal recovery [4] Group 2: Consumer Market Insights - June retail sales growth slowed to 4.8% year-on-year, impacted by the timing of the 618 shopping festival and regional subsidy controls [20][21] - The contribution of "trade-in" spending to retail sales has diminished, with June's trade-in spending progress estimated at 54% [5] - The food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from potential policy support for domestic consumption, particularly in the liquor segment [20][25] Group 3: Industry Specific Analysis - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a slowdown in retail sales growth, with a focus on top liquor brands for strategic investment [20][25] - The machinery sector, particularly 隆盛科技, is positioned for growth with a projected revenue of 2.24 billion yuan in 2024, driven by its EGR systems and electric motor components [31][32] - The company is expanding into humanoid robotics, leveraging its precision manufacturing capabilities and established client relationships with major automotive players [33] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality companies in the "emotional consumption" theme, particularly in gold jewelry, offline retail, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics [29][30] - Specific recommendations include leading brands in the liquor industry and innovative companies in the snack sector, which are expected to maintain strong growth [23][25]

Economic Performance - Q2 2025 GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, showing resilience, supported by export growth offsetting construction sector decline[4] - The nominal GDP growth rate was 1.3% lower than the real GDP growth, indicating price level adjustments are needed[4] Industrial and Service Sector Insights - Industrial added value in June increased by 1.0 percentage point to 6.8% year-on-year, with modern service sectors showing stability[5] - The service sector's production growth was steady, with information technology services rising for five consecutive months[5] Consumer Behavior - Disposable income growth slowed to 5.4%, with operational net income being a significant drag[5] - The consumer spending rate in Q2 was 68.6%, better than the same period in 2022-2024 but still below pre-pandemic levels[5] Consumption Trends - Retail sales in June fell by 1.6 percentage points to 4.8%, with the "trade-in" program's contribution declining[6] - By June, the progress of the "trade-in" program reached approximately 54%, with expectations for further consumer stimulus policies in the second half of 2025[6] Investment and Construction - Fixed asset investment growth slowed, with real estate investment down by 11.2% year-on-year in June[7] - Manufacturing investment decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 7.5%, influenced by tariff disruptions and "anti-involution" measures[7] Future Economic Outlook - The first half of 2025 exceeded GDP targets with a 5.3% growth, but Q4 may face downward pressure due to weakening investment and consumption trends[8] - The potential fading of export support and challenges in the real estate market could impact future growth rates[8] Risk Factors - Risks include potential policy changes that may not meet expectations and the possibility of an unexpected downturn in the U.S. economy[9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from potential domestic policy adjustments and a recovery in consumer demand in the second half of the year [3][4] - The report suggests strategic positioning in leading liquor companies due to their low valuation and favorable market conditions [3][6] - The snack food segment shows strong growth potential, driven by product innovation and emerging sales channels [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The food and beverage sector is currently experiencing a slowdown in retail sales growth, with June 2025 retail sales increasing by 4.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from May [4][8] - The report notes that the decline in consumer spending on dining and discretionary items has impacted overall sales performance [4][5] Liquor Sector - The liquor industry is in a bottoming phase, with consumption scenarios limited by recent policy changes and promotional activities affecting pricing [6] - The report recommends focusing on top liquor brands such as Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu for potential investment opportunities [3][6] Snack Food Sector - The snack food segment, particularly products like konjac, is experiencing robust growth due to health trends and diverse flavor offerings [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying quality companies in the snack food sector that align with industry development trends for long-term investment [3][6]

金融工程定期 金 融 工 程 研 究 2025 年 07 月 16 日 金融工程研究团队 魏建榕（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790519120001 张 翔（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520110001 傅开波（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090003 高 鹏（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090002 苏俊豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522020001 胡亮勇（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522030001 王志豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522070003 盛少成（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060003 苏 良（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060004 何申昊（分析师） 证书编号：S0790524070009 蒋 韬（分析师） 证书编号：S0790123070037 相关研究报告 《恒生科技板块的资金行为监测—金 融工程定期》-2025.7.11 《构建跑赢中证 500 的分析师组合— 开源量化评论（110）》-2025.7.5 《基金投顾产品 6 月调仓一览—基金 投顾产品月报系列（19）》-2025.7.4 7 月转债配置：转债估值偏贵，看好平衡低估 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The retail sector is experiencing a steady recovery in consumer spending, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0% in retail sales for the first half of 2025, amounting to 245,458 billion yuan [5] - Online retail continues to grow, with a 6.0% year-on-year increase in physical goods online retail sales, reaching 61,191 billion yuan [7] - The report highlights the importance of "emotional consumption" themes, recommending high-quality companies in sectors such as gold jewelry, offline retail, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics [8] Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In June 2025, retail sales increased by 4.8%, with total sales reaching 42,287 billion yuan [5] - The performance of essential goods like grain and oil showed resilience, while discretionary categories like home appliances and jewelry performed better [6] Online and Offline Channels - Online retail sales for the first half of 2025 reached 74,295 billion yuan, growing by 8.5% [7] - Offline retail channels, including supermarkets and specialty stores, showed marginal recovery, with supermarkets and convenience stores growing by 5.4% and 7.5% respectively [7] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies that align with the "emotional consumption" theme, particularly in high-growth sectors [8] - Key recommendations include brands with differentiated product offerings in gold jewelry, innovative retail companies, and high-quality domestic cosmetics brands [8]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In June, China's exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, while imports rose by 1.1%, indicating a recovery in trade dynamics despite global demand challenges [6][7] - The decline in exports to the US has narrowed, with strong demand from ASEAN and Africa contributing to overall export resilience [8] - The contribution of net exports to GDP is primarily driven by low import growth rather than high export growth, with net exports contributing nearly 40% to GDP in Q1 2025 [19][21] Group 2: Real Estate Sector Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the total sales area of commercial housing decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, with a significant drop in June sales data, marking the largest decline since September 2024 [27][28] - The new housing starts in the first half of 2025 fell by 20.0% year-on-year, although the rate of decline has narrowed compared to previous months [28] - The real estate development investment in the first half of 2025 decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, indicating a continued contraction in investment sentiment among developers [29] Group 3: Banking Sector Developments - In June, new loans increased by 22,400 million yuan, exceeding expectations and indicating a recovery in credit demand [12][13] - The growth of M1 and M2 money supply in June reflects effective monetary policy and increased liquidity in the economy, with M1 growth rising to 4.6% [16] - The banking sector is expected to maintain stable performance in 2025, driven by optimized asset-liability structures and controlled retail risks [42] Group 4: Communication Industry Updates - Nvidia announced the resumption of H20 sales in China, which is expected to alleviate the domestic chip shortage and benefit the AIDC industry chain [44] - Century Internet raised its 2025 fiscal year revenue guidance, indicating strong demand in the IDC sector and a positive outlook for the domestic AIDC industry [45] Group 5: Non-Banking Financial Sector Insights - The net profit of 25 listed securities firms is expected to increase by 78% year-on-year, driven by improved market conditions and higher trading volumes [48][50] - The brokerage business, equity self-operation, and overseas operations are key drivers of profit growth for securities firms in the first half of 2025 [50][52]