2025 年 12 月 30 日 建筑开工有所回升 宏观研究团队 ——宏观经济专题 何宁（分析师） 郭晓彬（分析师） hening@kysec.cn guoxiaobin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525070004 供需：建筑开工转暖，工业开工有韧性，需求仍弱 1.建筑开工：部分开工率季节性位置回升，房建同比好于基建。最近两周（12 月 14 日至 12 月 27 日），石油沥青装置开工率、磨机运转率季节性位置回升至同期历 史中位，水泥发运率仍处于同期历史低位。基建项目水泥直供量环比回落，同比 降幅扩大，房建水泥用量环比变化较小，同比降幅收窄。资金方面，建筑工地资 金到位率同比低于 2024 年同期。 2.工业生产端，整体景气度仍处于历史中高位，高炉焦化开工转弱。最近两周（12 月 14 日至 12 月 27 日），工业开工整体景气度仍处于历史中高位，但部分开工转 弱。化工链中 PX 开工率维持历史高位，PTA 开工率处于历史中位，汽车半钢胎 开工率弱于 2024 年同期，高炉与焦化企业开工率降至历史中位。 3.需求端，建筑需求仍弱，汽车、家电销售仍弱。最近两周，螺纹钢、线材、建 材表观需求均处 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the compound fertilizer industry is experiencing a favorable supply-demand dynamic, with expectations for leading companies to see volume and profit recovery, as well as increased dividends [5][7][28] - The compound fertilizer market is transitioning towards new types of fertilizers that are more efficient, specialized, functional, and precise, driven by changes in agricultural practices and consumer demand [28] Summary by Sections 1. Demand Side - The consumption of compound fertilizers has a strong necessity attribute, with the compound fertilizer application rate in China expected to continue rising. From 2000 to 2023, the application of compound fertilizers increased from 9.18 million tons to 24.01 million tons, with a CAGR of 4.3%, while the overall fertilizer application rate reached 47.8% in 2023 [20][24][22] 2. Supply Side - The compound fertilizer industry operates on a sales-based production model, with a low operating rate. As of November 2025, the domestic compound fertilizer capacity was 134.14 million tons, with an annualized operating rate of 38.8% [27][39][36] - The industry is characterized by a seasonal demand pattern, with production concentrated in resource-rich areas or sales locations, leading to a fragmented capacity distribution [28][39] 3. Price Review and Competitive Landscape - The pricing of compound fertilizers is primarily based on a cost-plus model, with raw material costs accounting for over 80% of total costs. The report notes that fluctuations in raw material prices significantly impact the profitability of compound fertilizers [43][42] - Leading companies are enhancing their competitive advantages through comprehensive strategies involving cost management, product development, branding, and distribution channels [6][7][28] 4. Company Analysis - Key players in the compound fertilizer industry include New Yangfeng, Yuntu Holdings, and Stanley, all of which have demonstrated significant advantages in terms of production capacity and integrated supply chains [6][7][28] - New Yangfeng has a production capacity of 7.98 million tons of compound fertilizers and has maintained a leading position in sales volume for several years [6][7] - Yuntu Holdings focuses on developing a nitrogen-phosphorus fertilizer industry chain and has a production capacity of 7.45 million tons [6][7] - Stanley employs a comprehensive business model that integrates branding, channels, products, and services, with a production capacity of 5.90 million tons [6][7]

事件点评 2025 年 12 月 30 日 工业企业利润承压，新动能支撑作用持续显现 固定收益研究团队 ——2025 年 11 月工业企业利润点评 陈曦（分析师） 王帅中（联系人） chenxi2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 wangshuaizhong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070016 事件：国家统计局公布 2025 年 11 月工业企业利润数据，1-11 月规上工业利润同 比增长 0.1%（前值为+1.9%，下同），营收同比增长 1.6%（+1.8%），营收利润率 为 5.29%（5.25%）；11 月规上工业利润同比下降 13.1%（-5.5%）。 11 月工业企业利润需要关注的内容 工业企业利润结构分化明显。1-11 月规上工业利润累计同比增长 0.1%，较前值 下滑 1.8pct，11 月规上工业利润同比下降 13.1%，11 月规上工业利润承压，各行 业结构分化明显。消费、地产链条上相关行业如酒饮、纺服、木材加工、家具制 造等行业利润总额累计同比降幅较大，而装备制造业中除金属制造业外利润总额 累计同比均为正增长，内需不足，地产承压，经济增长仍面 ...

机械设备 机械设备 2025 年 12 月 29 日 投资评级：看好（维持） ——行业点评报告 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 机械设备 沪深300 相关研究报告 《"结构件"与"手套"：特斯拉 Optimus 机器人轻量化的"关键一环"—行业 点评报告》-2025.12.22 《人形机器人的"起跑时刻"，把握低 位布局窗口—行业周报》-2025.12.7 《人形机器人：量产临界点已至，入 场 布 局 正 当 时 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.12.1 | 孟鹏飞（分析师） | 黄雄（分析师） | 蒋雨凯（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | mengpengfei@kysec.cn | huangxiong@kysec.cn | jiangyukai@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522060001 | 证书编号：S0790525070005 | 证书编号：S0790525100002 | 人形机器人板块阶段上行趋势已然确立 近期人形机器人板块指数企稳反弹，技术面与情绪面同步 ...

电力设备/光伏设备 爱旭股份（600732.SH） BC 龙头乘风光伏反内卷，高溢价驱动业绩高弹性 2025 年 12 月 29 日 投资评级：增持（首次） | 日期 | 2025/12/26 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 13.77 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 17.80/9.20 | | 总市值(亿元) | 291.55 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 217.76 | | 总股本(亿股) | 21.17 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 15.81 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 151.37 | 股价走势图 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 爱旭股份 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 殷晟路（分析师） 周航（联系人） yinshenglu@kysec.cn zhouhang1@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125050020 深耕光伏十六载，BC 破局技领航 公司深耕太阳能电池领域 16 载，积淀了深厚的技术壁垒。2021 年，公司率先发 布 ABC 技术，并于业内最早实现 N 型 BC 的 GW 级量产。当 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of AI applications and the commercialization of large models, particularly through the IPOs of companies like Zhipu and MiniMax, which are expected to enhance their business investments and technological advancements [11][21] - The gaming sector is experiencing a significant increase in the issuance of game licenses, with 1,771 licenses granted in 2025, marking a more than 20% increase from 2024, indicating ongoing policy support for the gaming industry [11][44] Summary by Sections Section 1: Zhipu and MiniMax IPOs - Zhipu and MiniMax are set to go public in Hong Kong, which is anticipated to boost their business investments and accelerate the development and application of large model technologies [11] - Zhipu focuses on B-end markets with strong capabilities in model reasoning and programming, while MiniMax targets C-end markets with a diverse product line [11][21] Section 2: Industry Data Overview - The report notes that "NBA Champion Dynasty" topped the iOS free game chart in mainland China, while "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" led the iOS sales chart [44] - The film "Avatar 3" achieved the highest box office in the week [44] Section 3: Industry News Summary - MiniMax's daily active users surpassed 100 million, and Douyin's mini-games saw significant user and revenue growth [11] - The issuance of 147 game licenses in December 2025 reflects a robust pipeline for new game releases [11][44] Section 4: Announcement Summary - Oriental Pearl is participating in the establishment of an AI fund, and Electric Sound Co. is adjusting its fundraising projects [11] Section 5: Sector Performance Overview - The media sector performed at the lower end of the market in the 52nd week of 2025, while the internet sector showed better performance [11]

化学原料 2025 年 12 月 28 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 化学原料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2026 年制冷剂配额下发，行情保持 趋势向上；PVDF 头部企业停产，有 望助推反转行情—氟化工行业周报》 -2025.12.14 《HFCs 行业稳健运行，趋势未变， 机会明显 — 氟 化 工 行 业 周 报 》- 2025.11.30 《R134a 价格超预期上调，制冷剂板 块性价比显著，长期布局正当时—氟 化工行业周报》-2025.11.16 《制冷剂行业深度报告三：蓄势双 击，或迎主升》（2024.12.17） 《制冷剂政策点评：制冷剂 2025 年 配额方案征求意见稿下发，看好制冷 剂景气向上趋势延续》（2024.9.16） 《东阳光首次覆盖报告：原有主业或 迎业绩反转，制冷剂开启长景气周 期》（2024.8.27） 《制冷剂行业深度报告二：拐点已 现，行则将至》（2024.2.6） 《制冷剂行业深度报告：十年轮回， 未来已来》（2021.10.20） 《金石资源深度报 ...

Group 1: New Companies Listed - A total of 10 new companies were listed, with an average revenue of 732 million and a median of 699 million; the average net profit was 47.53 million, with a median of 40.94 million. Notable companies include Yaxun Zhiliang, Qingwa Pump Industry, and Yinuo Biotech [4][16][19] - Yaxun Zhiliang (874947.NQ) is a full-stack integrated vehicle networking software and component supplier, with expected revenue of 801 million and a net profit of 42.03 million in 2024. The company holds 463 domestic and 10 foreign invention patents [4][5][17] - Qingwa Pump Industry (874926.NQ) is recognized as an "invisible champion" in the well submersible pump sector, with a revenue of 537 million and a net profit of 104 million in 2024. The company has ranked first in national sales for six consecutive years from 2019 to 2024 [4][36] - Yinuo Biotech (875019.NQ) specializes in bio-based furan and polyol, with expected revenue of 945 million and a net profit of 104 million in 2024. The company is expanding its applications into various sectors including aerospace and high-end electronic materials [5][19] Group 2: Market Data and Trends - As of December 28, 2025, there are 5,956 companies listed on the New Third Board, with 2,295 in the innovation layer and 3,661 in the basic layer. The number of listed companies has decreased to below 6,000 [3][6] - The total market capitalization of listed companies reached 24,194.71 billion as of November 2025, with a total transaction amount of 53.09 billion in November 2025 and an annual total of 574.17 billion [6][39] - The market for stainless steel well submersible pumps is projected to grow from 2.01 billion in 2018 to 5.55 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 10.69%. The penetration rate of stainless steel pumps is expected to increase from 27.8% in 2018 to 41.1% by 2028 [42][46] Group 3: Company Innovations and Competitive Landscape - Yaxun Zhiliang has established a strong R&D foundation with 487 technical personnel and has participated in the formulation of 11 national standards and 6 industry standards. The company has received multiple national honors, enhancing its competitive edge [21][30] - Qingwa Pump Industry has developed a comprehensive product system with over 500 models, focusing on energy efficiency and environmental protection. The company is positioned to replace traditional cast iron pumps with its stainless steel products due to their superior characteristics [40][45] - The competitive landscape in the well submersible pump market includes both specialized companies like Qingwa and multi-category pump manufacturers. The market is characterized by a mix of small-scale enterprises and larger firms with diverse product lines [45][46]

Core Insights - The report highlights a continued slowdown in corporate profits, with the cumulative profit of large-scale industrial enterprises in China showing a year-on-year increase of only 0.1% from January to November 2025, down from 1.9% in the previous period [3] - The report suggests that the current economic environment is characterized by a weak demand, necessitating further policy support to stimulate internal demand and address rising inventory levels [6][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming spring market rally, suggesting a dual focus on technology and cyclical sectors for investment strategies [12] Macro Economic Analysis - The cumulative operating revenue of large-scale industrial enterprises from January to November 2025 increased by 1.6%, a slight decrease from the previous year's 1.8% [3] - November's profit margin saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop of 13.1%, indicating a challenging environment for industrial profitability [4] - The report notes that the inventory-to-sales ratio has risen significantly, indicating a need for policy intervention to stimulate demand [6] Industry Insights Chemical Industry - The report indicates an overall upward trend in the polyester industry chain, driven by rising prices of PX and PTA, with PX prices increasing by 6.97% and PTA by 8.95% as of December 26, 2025 [35] - The report highlights the importance of the "anti-involution" policy in supporting price stability and profitability within the chemical sector [36] Real Estate - The report notes a month-on-month increase in new and second-hand housing transaction areas, with Beijing further optimizing housing purchase restrictions [40] - The report indicates that various policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market are beginning to take effect, contributing to a gradual recovery in housing prices [41] Electronics - The electronics sector is experiencing a high level of prosperity, with significant price increases expected in storage components, driven by strong demand and supply constraints [46][49] - The report highlights the positive performance of semiconductor stocks, with notable increases in stock prices for major players like SK Hynix and Micron [46] Biotechnology - The report discusses the upcoming IPO of Rebio Biotech, which focuses on innovative siRNA technology platforms for treating chronic diseases and cancers [52][54] - The company has established multiple clinical research pipelines and has secured significant partnerships with major pharmaceutical firms, indicating strong growth potential [55]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The first batch of L3 autonomous vehicles has been approved for large-scale operation in Chongqing, with 46 vehicles equipped with L3 autonomous driving systems [5][13] - A new national standard for electric vehicle energy consumption will be implemented in 2026, tightening limits by approximately 11%, requiring two-ton vehicles to consume no more than 15.1 kWh per 100 km [14] - Changan Automobile's L3 approved models have undergone over 5 million kilometers of testing without any violations [15] - Toyota plans to exceed a global production of 10 million vehicles in 2026 to meet the growing demand for hybrid models, maintaining high production levels [20] - The automotive sector in China has seen a significant decline in imports, with a 30% year-on-year drop in the first 11 months of 2025 [19] Industry News Highlights - The first L3 autonomous vehicles are now operational in Chongqing, marking a significant milestone in autonomous driving technology [5][13] - The new electric vehicle energy consumption standard aims to enhance energy efficiency and support the high-quality development of the automotive industry [14] - Changan's L3 models have been validated through extensive testing, showcasing the company's commitment to safety and reliability [15] - Toyota's production strategy reflects its response to market demands and aims to sustain its competitive edge in the automotive industry [20] - The decline in vehicle imports indicates a shift towards domestic production and the growing strength of local automotive brands [19] Market Performance - The automotive sector outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 2.66%, ranking 13th among A-share industries [6][32] - The passenger vehicle index rose by 2.87%, led by BYD and Haima Automobile [6][33] - The automotive parts sector saw a 3.57% increase, with significant gains in various sub-sectors [6][35] Investment Recommendations - For passenger vehicles, the demand for high-end domestic luxury cars is exceeding expectations, with recommendations for Jianghuai Automobile and Seres, while Geely is identified as a beneficiary [7] - In the automotive parts sector, companies like Desay SV and Zhejiang Xiantong are recommended due to their growth potential amidst industry changes [7]