2025 年 12 月 25 日 开源晨会 1225 ——晨会纪要 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 沪深300 创业板指 数据来源：聚源 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 行业名称 涨跌幅(%) 国防军工 2.881 电子 2.122 建筑材料 1.720 轻工制造 1.688 机械设备 1.487 数据来源：聚源 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 农林牧渔 | -0.845 | | 煤炭 | -0.699 | | 食品饮料 | -0.363 | | 银行 | -0.304 | | 传媒 | 0.005 | 数据来源：聚源 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【策略】从"慢牛不慢"到"平顶非顶"——2026 年年度投资策略-20251224 从"资产重估"到"盈利修复"，2026 年更可能"低斜率慢牛"而非"尖顶短牛" 2025 年开启的"资产重估"牛市的空间与节奏：（1）空间上，证券化率为判 ...

汽车/汽车零部件 威迈斯（688612.SH） 2025 年 12 月 23 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/12/23 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 31.35 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 42.26/20.89 | | 总市值(亿元) | 131.42 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 79.18 | | 总股本(亿股) | 4.19 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 2.53 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 61.64 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 2025-12 威迈斯 沪深300 稳步推进全球化战略，大力开拓境外市场客户 相关研究报告 《2025Q3 虽仍受欧洲客户放假影响， 但业绩表现亮眼—公司信息更新报 告》-2025.10.28 《Q2 毛利率创历史新高，业绩超预期 —公司信息更新报告》-2025.8.26 《业绩符合预期，推进全球化布局— 公司信息更新报告》-2025.4.28 拟 5000 万至 1 亿元回购股份增强股东回报 ——公司信息更新报告 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the "closure" of Hainan Free Trade Port is not about isolation but represents a higher level of openness, marking a significant shift in China's approach to foreign trade and investment [4][5]. Total Research - The Hainan Free Trade Port officially commenced its full island closure operations on December 18, 2025, establishing a customs supervision special area with a new management system [4]. - The operational model of the closure can be summarized as "one line open, two lines controlled, and free movement within the island" [4]. - The customs will simplify the clearance process for most goods entering Hainan, particularly those on the "zero tariff" negative list [4]. - The management of goods entering the mainland from Hainan will be precise, focusing on tax-exempt and value-added goods to prevent market disruption [4]. Policy Changes - The closure operation will introduce four major policy benefits: more favorable "zero tariff" policies, relaxed trade management measures, efficient supervision, and expanded tax benefits [6]. - This marks a transition for Hainan from a "policy exploration zone" to a "formal operation zone," providing unprecedented development momentum [5]. Industry Impact - The closure will reshape Hainan's industries and sectors, impacting cost structures, supply chains, market access, and competitive landscapes [7]. - In the consumption and tourism sector, Hainan aims to establish a comprehensive duty-free and high-quality service system, reinforcing its status as an international tourism consumption center [7]. - The modern service industry is expected to advance towards higher-end and international standards, attracting international financial and professional service institutions [7]. - The high-tech industry will benefit from the closure, particularly in the biopharmaceutical sector, creating a rapid pathway for innovation and reshaping global competition [7].

2025 年 12 月 23 日 策略研究团队 以开放破壁垒，海南自贸港建设迈向新起点 ——投资策略专题 韦冀星（分析师） 简宇涵（分析师） weijixing@kysec.cn jianyuhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525050005 核心要义："封关"不是"封岛"，而是更高水平的开放 自 2025 年 12 月 18 日起，海南自由贸易港正式启动全岛封关运作。"封关"，绝 对不是把海南岛封闭起来，恰恰相反，其核心是将海南全岛设立为一个海关监管 特殊区域，实施一套全新的管理制度。封关运作的核心模式可以概括为 "一线 放开、二线管住、岛内自由"。在"一线"，海关对进入海南的绝大多数货物，特 别是列入"零关税"负面清单管理的货物，采取极简化的通关模式；"二线"指 的是海南与内地之间的边界。这里会对从海南进入内地的货物进行精准管理，主 要是针对从"一线"进来的免税货物、加工增值货物等，防止其未经征税直接冲 击内地市场；在海南岛内部，致力于创造一个要素自由流动、规则高度统一、运 营成本低廉的营商环境。 对中国而言，是制度型开放的新高地。海南的封关运作标志着中国对外开放从以 商品和要素流动为主的" ...

Report Information - Report Date: December 23, 2025 [1] - Report Title: 2025 November Bond Market Custody Data Review [2] - Research Team: Fixed Income Research Team - Analysts: Chen Xi, Wang Shuaizhong [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly [8] - Structural issues such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise [8] - Stock - bond allocation continues to shift: Bond yields are expected to rise continuously [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall Bond Custody Volume - The total bond custody volume of Shanghai Clearing House and China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) increased month - on - month. In November, it was 178.25 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 147.9847 billion yuan, and the month - on - month increment rebounded [4] - The bond custody volume of Shanghai Clearing House was 50.09 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 38.4053 billion yuan, and the month - on - month increment decreased [4] - The bond custody volume of CCDC was 128.16 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 109.5794 billion yuan, and the month - on - month increment increased [4] Bond Types - Interest rate bonds contributed the main increment this month. The custody volume of interest rate bonds was 122.45 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 147.7602 billion yuan [5] - Credit bonds in Shanghai Clearing House contributed the main increment, with a net monthly increase of 65.8673 billion yuan; corporate credit bonds had a net monthly increase of 29.2743 billion yuan; interest rate bonds had a net monthly increase of 7.3 billion yuan; negotiable certificates of deposit decreased by 38.5737 billion yuan month - on - month [5] - At CCDC, treasury bonds contributed the main increment, with a net monthly increase of 64.5687 billion yuan; interest rate bonds had a net monthly increase of 140.4602 billion yuan; credit bonds had a net monthly decrease of 30.8808 billion yuan [5] - The custody volume of credit bonds was 33.72 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 33.745 billion yuan; the custody volume of negotiable certificates of deposit was 20.31 trillion yuan, with a net monthly decrease of 38.5737 billion yuan [5] Institutions - Commercial banks were the main buyers of bonds. The custody volume of commercial banks was 94.15 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 78.4824 billion yuan [6] - At Shanghai Clearing House, deposit - taking financial institutions, insurance companies, and broad - based funds increased their bond holdings, with net monthly increases of 17.7653 billion yuan, 2.9458 billion yuan, and 34.9638 billion yuan respectively; policy banks, securities firms, and overseas institutions had negative net monthly increases, at - 7.456 billion yuan, - 1.2799 billion yuan, and - 10.0046 billion yuan respectively [6] - At CCDC, commercial banks were the main buyers of bonds, with a net monthly increase of 60.9657 billion yuan; the custody volumes of insurance companies, securities firms, broad - based funds, and overseas institutions had negative net monthly increases, at - 0.0937 billion yuan, - 12.9269 billion yuan, - 12.807 billion yuan, and - 1.6703 billion yuan respectively [6] - The custody volume of securities firms was 3.15 trillion yuan, with a net monthly decrease of 14.2068 billion yuan; the custody volume of broad - based funds was 48.96 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 22.1568 billion yuan; the custody volume of overseas institutions was 3.61 trillion yuan, with a net monthly decrease of 11.6749 billion yuan [6] Leverage - The overall leverage ratio of the bond market decreased. In November, it was 106.61% (compared with 106.90% previously), a month - on - month decrease [7] - The leverage ratios of commercial banks, non - bank institutions, and securities firms all decreased. The leverage ratio of commercial banks was 104.42% (compared with 104.61% previously), a month - on - month decrease of 0.19 percentage points; the leverage ratio of non - bank institutions was 109.19% (compared with 109.61% previously), a month - on - month decrease of 0.42 percentage points; among them, the leverage ratio of securities firms was 140.99% (compared with 142.36% previously), a month - on - month decrease of 1.37 percentage points [7]

机械设备 机械设备 2025 年 12 月 22 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 机械设备 沪深300 相关研究报告 《人形机器人的"起跑时刻"，把握低 位布局窗口—行业周报》-2025.12.7 《人形机器人：量产临界点已至，入 场 布 局 正 当 时 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.12.1 《人形机器人：情绪向左，产业向右 —行业点评报告》-2025.11.20 "结构件"与"手套"：特斯拉 Optimus 机器人轻量 化的"关键一环" 艺等领域具备深度积累，并能够与下游整机厂协同开发的企业，有望在 Optimus 及后续人形机器人放量过程中率先受益。 相关标的 （1）结构件：受益标的：模塑科技、拓普集团、蓝思科技；（2）电子皮肤及覆 盖材料：受益标的：日盈电子、恒辉安防、汉威科技。 风险提示：宏观经济波动风险；机器人量产不及预期；供应链发展不及预期。 ——行业点评报告 | 孟鹏飞（分析师） | | | | 欧阳蕤（分析师） | 朱珠（联系人） | | --- | --- ...

Group 1: U.S. Import and Inventory Trends - From November 2024 to September 2025, U.S. imports are expected to grow by 8.1% year-on-year, significantly higher than -5.3% in 2023 and 4.0% in 2024[14] - U.S. inventory growth during the same period is projected at 1.9%, indicating no excessive accumulation of stock[17] - The discrepancy between U.S. imports and inventory levels may be attributed to statistical issues and strong AI investment driving imports[20] Group 2: Export Contributions and Trends - AI investment and industrialization in emerging regions contributed 3.6 percentage points to export growth over the past year[5] - The contribution ratio of AI and industrialization products to export growth is 2.3:1 compared to products experiencing export rush phenomena[44] - Estimated export rush amounts to approximately $42 billion for non-U.S. regions from November 2024 to August 2025[47] Group 3: Future Export Projections - Total U.S. exports are expected to grow by 2% to 4% year-on-year in 2026[50] - AI-related investments are projected to continue driving demand, but growth rates may decline due to higher base effects[58] - The forecast for 2026 exports is based on seasonal trends observed in 2023 and 2024, with adjustments for potential overdraw effects[63]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The demand for optical fibers and cables is expected to be driven by the construction of AI data centers and DCI interconnections, with a significant increase in global demand anticipated due to the ongoing evolution of AI large model training and application deployment [4] - The supply side faces challenges as the production cycle for optical preforms is long and the manufacturing process is complex, leading to potential short-term supply tightness [5] - The report highlights a potential supply-demand imbalance in the short term, with a recommendation to focus on investment opportunities in the optical fiber and cable sector [6] Demand Side Summary - The demand for optical fibers and cables is expected to grow due to the increasing need for high-density and low-power data transmission in data centers, driven by AI applications [4] - The G.654.E optical fiber is noted for its ability to enhance transmission distance and system capacity, contributing to the development of more efficient long-distance high-bandwidth networks [4] - New technologies such as hollow-core fibers are being actively developed, which may lead to increased demand in the long term due to their advantages in low latency and low loss [4] Supply Side Summary - The production of optical preforms is characterized by a long expansion cycle and high technical requirements, which may lead to a tight supply situation in the short term [5] - The report cites predictions from the Asia-Pacific Optical Fiber and Cable Industry Association and the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, estimating that global demand for optical fibers and cables could reach hundreds of millions of core kilometers by 2025 [5] - Prices for optical fibers have shown a significant rebound since May, indicating a positive outlook for demand and pricing driven by AI data center construction [5] Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in the optical fiber and cable sector, specifically highlighting companies such as Hengtong Optic-Electric and Zhongtian Technology as primary targets, with additional beneficiaries including Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable, Yongding Co., FiberHome Technologies, and TeFa Information [6]

九方智投控股 （09636.HK） 2025 年 12 月 22 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/12/19 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 50.250 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 84.050/20.300 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 235.35 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 235.35 | | 总股本(亿股) | 4.68 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 4.68 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 46.19 | 股价走势图 科技与投研赋能，加速平台化转型 ——港股公司首次覆盖报告 财务摘要和估值指标 | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1,965 | 2,306 | 3,771 | 3,960 | 4,625 | | YOY(%) | 6.2 | 17.3 | 63.5 | 5.0 | 16.8 | | 净利润(百万元) | 191 | 272 | 1,193 | 1,101 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the defense and aerospace industry is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The collaboration between policy and industry is driving a new development phase for China's commercial aerospace sector, with significant advancements in technology and capital market engagement expected [4][42] - The deployment of space computing is anticipated to create a sustainable economic model for commercial aerospace, with operational costs projected to be significantly lower than ground-based data centers [19][20] - The Chinese commercial aerospace industry is expected to achieve a market value of 85 billion yuan by 2030, driven by advancements in reusable rocket technology and increased launch frequency [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Low Earth Orbit Satellite Planning - China has ambitious plans for low Earth orbit satellites, with over 12,000 satellites proposed under the national plan and additional projects like the G60 constellation aiming for over 14,000 satellites [12] - However, the launch progress is slow, with only 86 satellites launched by the national plan and 90 by the G60 project as of October 2025, indicating significant bottlenecks in deployment [12] 2. Space Computing Potential - Space computing is expected to provide a solution for the long-term economic closure of commercial aerospace, with lifecycle operational costs projected to be 1/20 of ground-based data centers [19] - The anticipated deployment of space computing will enable a "multi-launch, multi-saving" model, enhancing operational efficiency and reducing costs [20] 3. Challenges and Breakthroughs in Space Computing - The deployment of space computing faces challenges such as launch capacity, radiation resistance of electronic components, and energy supply in orbit, but clear pathways for technological breakthroughs are emerging [29][30] - Companies are developing solutions to address these challenges, including advanced radiation shielding and energy-efficient cooling systems [31] 4. Industry Transformation through Space Computing - The introduction of space computing is expected to catalyze a significant transformation in the commercial aerospace industry, enabling large-scale applications and innovations as costs decrease [36] - The capacity limitations of low Earth orbit satellites will accelerate the deployment of space computing clusters, which are prioritized for their favorable conditions [36] 5. Comparison with U.S. Industry - There are notable gaps between China's and the U.S.'s capabilities in space computing, particularly in launch capacity and cost efficiency, with China's reusable rocket technology still in the validation phase [38] - The expected advancements in China's reusable rocket technology are projected to follow a similar trajectory to that of SpaceX, with significant improvements anticipated in the coming years [38]