北交所信息更新 2025 年 07 月 15 日 投资评级：增持（维持） | 日期 | 2025/7/14 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 26.36 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 40.80/8.35 | | 总市值(亿元) | 18.22 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 8.22 | | 总股本(亿股) | 0.69 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 0.31 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 724.79 | 诸海滨（分析师） zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 2025Q1：营收 1.16 亿元，同比+7%，扣非净利润 790 万元，同比+47% 2024 年，公司实现营业收入 5.16 亿元，同比下滑 2.96%，归母净利润 2805.51 万元，同比下滑 18.32%，扣非归母净利润 2414.11 万元，同比增长 18.01%； 2025Q1，公司实现营收 1.16 亿元，同比增长 6.92%，归母净利润 808.38 万元， 同比增长 9.41%，扣非归母净利润 789.56 万元，同比增长 47.45%。因此，我们 维持 20 ...

宏观经济点评 2025 年 07 月 15 日 抢出口窗口期或将临近结束 ——宏观经济点评 | 何宁（分析师） | 郭晓彬（分析师） | | --- | --- | | hening@kysec.cn | panweizhen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | 证书编号：S0790122110044 | 事件：以美元计，中国 6 月出口同比+5.8%，前值+4.8%；6 月进口同比 +1.1%，前值-3.4%。 全球贸易需求下行，间接抢出口支撑出口增速 1. 间接抢出口仍在继续，6 月出口同比不降反升。(1) 6 月韩国出口同比+4.3%， 较前值(-1.3%)明显回升；越南出口同比+19.3%，接近前值(+20.7%)；我们认 为，在美国已加征 10%基础关税背景下，韩越出口仍保持高增，表明全球工业 国抢出口仍在继续。(2) 受间接抢出口支撑，6 月出口同比+5.8%，在 2024 年同 期高基数背景下较前值不降反升，但我们提示，美国进口关税税率不断提升， 未来外需或继续处于周期性回落趋势中，抢出口只能短暂抬高前期出口增速， 会对后续出口增速形成透支效应。 2. 地区结构 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The high contribution rate of net exports to China's GDP in Q1 2025 does not mean high dependence on exports; instead, it is mainly due to import substitution [2][4] - China's exports may remain at a relatively high level in the second half of 2025, and the economy may be better than expected, leading to an upward movement in bond yields and the stock market [6][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs China's Export Dependence - China's export-to-nominal GDP ratio is relatively low compared to most countries and historical levels. In 2023, it was 19% (ranked 130th), lower than South Korea (44%, ranked 56th), Germany (43%, ranked 62nd), France (34%, ranked 86th), and Japan (22%, ranked 120th). From 1970 - 2006, it trended upward, reaching a maximum of 35%; from 2007 - 2019, it trended downward, with a minimum of 17%; from 2020 - 2024, it rebounded slightly, ranging from 17 - 19% [3] Import Substitution - In Q1 2025, the high contribution rate of net exports to GDP (nearly 40%) was mainly due to a low import growth rate (-7%) rather than a high export growth rate (+5.7%). The low import growth is related to import substitution, which may continue for a long time due to China's complete industrial chain and high - cost - performance products. In June 2025, China maintained a high - export and low - import situation [4][5] Export Outlook - Due to the "global trade dynamic balance" and the "wide fiscal" policies of major economies, China's exports may remain relatively stable. As long as the US continues its loose fiscal policy, its total demand and imports will not decline significantly, and China's total exports will remain stable. "Anything But Bond" may become the dominant global strategy [6] Economic Expectations and Market Trends - Some market views believe that China's economy may face pressure in the second half of the year. However, considering the stable export situation, the economy in the second half of 2025 may be better than expected, leading to a correction in market expectations and an upward movement in bond yields and the stock market [7][8]

行 业 研 究 2025 年 07 月 15 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 银行 沪深300 相关研究报告 《稳增长与防空转，政策空间关注银 行"降成本"效果—央行 2025Q2 货币 政策例会学习》-2025.6.29 《非银存款高增背后：同业扩表与存 款搬家—5 月央行信贷收支表要点解 读》-2025.6.19 《谨慎乐观看待零售风险，新规过渡 尚 存 调 整 空 间 — 行 业 深 度 报 告 》 -2025.6.17 信贷季节性回暖，存款"活期化"初现 ——6 月金融数据点评 刘呈祥（分析师） 吴文鑫（分析师） liuchengxiang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790523060002 wuwenxin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524060002 受低基数、地方政府化债等因素影响，M1、M2 增速明显回升 6 月新口径下的 M1 同比增速为 4.6%，环比上升 2.3pct；M2 同比增速为 8.3%， 环比上升 0.4pct，除了低基数效应外，地方政府化债 ...

Group 1: Mechanical Industry - Tesla's Optimus project has undergone a key personnel change, indicating a strategic shift towards mass production [7][9][11] - The new leadership aims to address existing hardware and software challenges to enhance the robot's practical value and production capabilities [8][10] - Beneficiary companies in the supply chain include Zhenyu Technology, Top Group, and Sanhua Intelligent Control [13] Group 2: Public Utilities - The expansion of green electricity consumption assessment to include key industries like steel is expected to enhance the environmental premium of green electricity [15][17] - The green certificate market is anticipated to become more active, with a narrowing supply-demand gap and potential price increases [16][17] - Recommended companies include Longyuan Power, Xintian Green Energy, and Datang Renewable Power [17] Group 3: Computer Industry - The introduction of the RDA (Real Data Assets) paradigm by the Shanghai Data Exchange emphasizes the integration of data with physical assets, promoting marketization and value enhancement of data elements [18][19][20] - RDA's characteristics include real-number integration, transparency, and value reconstruction, which are expected to drive the development of a new asset form [21][22] - Recommended companies benefiting from RDA include Zhuoyi Information, Hehe Information, and Lais Information [22] Group 4: Media Industry - The gaming sector is experiencing a resurgence with new game releases and updates, indicating a potential growth phase [24][26] - Upcoming films and concerts are expected to boost box office revenues and related income for production and distribution companies [24][26] - Recommended companies in the gaming sector include Giant Network and Heartbeat Company, while in the film sector, Shanghai Film and Cat Eye Entertainment are highlighted [26][24] Group 5: Coal Mining Industry - Prices for thermal coal and coking coal are on the rise, with thermal coal prices increasing by 3.8% and coking coal prices rebounding significantly [34][35] - The current market conditions suggest a turning point for coal prices, driven by supply constraints and seasonal demand increases [35][36] - Recommended stocks include China Shenhua, Zhongmei Energy, and Shanxi Coal [36] Group 6: Retail Industry - Instant retail platforms like Taobao and Meituan are seeing record order volumes, indicating a competitive landscape [38][44] - The retail sector is shifting towards a three-pronged competitive structure, with major platforms investing heavily in growth [38][44] - Recommended companies include Yonghui Supermarket and Aiying Room in the offline retail space [45] Group 7: Automotive Industry - The upcoming launch of the Li Auto i8 is expected to create opportunities in the SUV market, emphasizing the importance of product innovation [47][48] - The automotive industry is undergoing a transformation with advancements in AI and smart driving technologies [48][49] - Recommended companies include XPeng Motors, BYD, and Great Wall Motors, with component suppliers like Huayang Group and Desay SV Automotive highlighted [51] Group 8: Social Services - The return of traditional dining experiences and the rise of creator economies are contributing to a vibrant market environment [52] - Sales in the trendy toy sector have shown significant growth, particularly in blind boxes and plush toys [52] - Companies to watch include He Yuan Biological and Bilibili in the trendy toy and creator economy sectors [52]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant growth in its performance, with a projected net profit of 16.5-17.0 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 71.7%-76.9% [4] - The second quarter of 2025 is anticipated to yield a net profit of 9.20-9.70 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 50.5%-58.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.9%-32.7% [4] - The report highlights improvements in the glass fiber industry fundamentals, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2026 [4] - The company is positioned to benefit from the rebound in glass fiber prices and demand, as well as the growth in electronic fabric driven by AI developments [5][6] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - The company's projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 34.3 billion, 39.7 billion, and 45.6 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.3, 12.3, and 10.7 times [4] - Revenue for 2025 is estimated at 18.684 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.8% [7] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 31.8% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 19.0% [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that Tesla's Optimus project is entering a critical adjustment phase, with a leadership change aimed at enhancing the robot's mass production capabilities [13][15] - The new head of the project, Ashok Elluswamy, is expected to accelerate the integration of hardware and software, leveraging his experience from the Autopilot team [27][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI capabilities, particularly through the integration of the Grok AI model and the establishment of a powerful data center to support the training of the Optimus robot [40][45] Summary by Sections Section 1: Tesla Robot's Technical Adjustment Phase - On June 7, the original head of the Optimus project, Milan Kovac, announced his departure, and Ashok Elluswamy took over the project [13] - The Optimus V3 is expected to significantly improve performance and integrate the Grok voice assistant, enhancing interaction capabilities [14][41] - Current hardware issues include overheating of joint motors and insufficient load capacity of the dexterous hand, which are being addressed [26][27] Section 2: Leadership Transition - Milan established the foundational architecture and supply chain for the Optimus robot, while Ashok aims to enhance software-hardware synergy and push for mass production [15][17] - The leadership change signals a strategic elevation of the robot project within Tesla, aligning it with the importance of the Robotaxi initiative [27][28] Section 3: AI Financing and Infrastructure - xAI has completed a new round of financing totaling $10 billion, focusing on expanding the Grok AI chatbot and building a large-scale data center [40][44] - The Colossus data center, equipped with 200,000 GPUs, will serve as a core infrastructure for AI training, enhancing the capabilities of the Optimus robot [45][46] Section 4: Investment Recommendations and Beneficiaries - The humanoid robot sector is viewed as being at a bottoming phase, with potential catalysts expected in the near future [50] - Beneficiary companies include those involved in components such as assembly, lead screws, dexterous hands, lightweight materials, reducers, sensors, and motors [51]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the renewable energy sector, highlighting the stability of hydropower business models and the increasing value of green electricity in a low-interest-rate environment [1] - The assessment indicates a tightening of green electricity consumption requirements for key industries, which is expected to enhance the market value of green electricity [4][12] - The report suggests focusing on high-quality A/H share renewable energy operators with stable profitability as potential investment targets [30] Group 1: Renewable Energy Consumption Assessment - The National Development and Reform Commission has expanded the scope of renewable energy consumption assessments, tightening requirements for industries such as steel, polysilicon, and cement, with specific targets set for 2025 and 2026 [4][12][19] - The actual consumption responsibility weight for renewable energy in 2025 has increased compared to the expected targets for 2024, with an average increase of 1.77 percentage points for total consumption and 2.48 percentage points for non-hydropower consumption [17][18] Group 2: Green Certificate Market Dynamics - The supply of green certificates is expected to contract, with a significant inventory clearance anticipated by the end of 2025, which may lead to an increase in the market price of green certificates [5][21][22] - The average price of green certificates has shown a significant increase, with a 63.24% rise in April 2024 and an 18.12% increase in May 2025, indicating a recovering market [25][26] - The narrowing supply-demand gap for green certificates is projected to enhance the environmental value returns for operators, with a potential increase in revenue per megawatt-hour as the coverage rate improves [5][27] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on renewable energy operators with strong asset quality and stable profitability, listing specific companies such as Longyuan Power, Xintian Green Energy, and Datang Renewable Power as beneficiaries of the evolving market dynamics [30][31]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown a significant increase in average sales price while maintaining a high land acquisition intensity, focusing on core cities [6] - Despite a decline in sales, the company remains stable in industry rankings and has a sufficient inventory for sale [6] - The company has successfully issued medium-term notes at low interest rates, indicating strong financing capabilities [9] Sales Performance - In June 2025, the company achieved a contracted sales area of 695,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 31.7%, and a contracted sales amount of 21.75 billion yuan, down 5.9% year-on-year but up 25.6% month-on-month [7] - For the first half of 2025, the total contracted sales area was 3.35 million square meters, down 23.6% year-on-year, with a total sales amount of 88.89 billion yuan, down 11.9% year-on-year [7] - The average contracted sales price was 26,533 yuan per square meter, an increase of 15.3% year-on-year [7] Land Acquisition - In June 2025, the company acquired three land parcels in Shenzhen, Zhengzhou, and Yichang, with a total construction area of 261,000 square meters and a total land price of 2.19 billion yuan [8] - In the first half of 2025, the company acquired 16 land parcels with a total construction area of 1.669 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 108%, and a total land price of 35.29 billion yuan, up 142% year-on-year [8] - The average land acquisition price was 21,144 yuan per square meter, an increase of 16% year-on-year, with a land acquisition intensity of 39.7% [8] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 5.97 billion, 6.47 billion, and 7.01 billion yuan respectively, with EPS of 0.66, 0.71, and 0.77 yuan [6] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 13.9, 12.9, and 11.8 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] - The company's revenue for 2025 is projected to be 194.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [10]

计算机 2025 年 07 月 14 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 上海数据交易所首次提出 RDA 新范式，推动数据要素价值化 数据来源：聚源 -22% 0% 22% 43% 65% 86% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 计算机 沪深300 上海数据交易所首次提出 RDA （Real Data Assets）新范式，更强调锚定实数融 合的实体资产，更强调数据对其他实体资产的真实性校验和价值提升等作用， RDA 一方面可以帮助数据要素市场化、价值化进程加速，另一方面可以推动数 据要素和其他要素的联动发展，提升实体资产和资本的对接效率，促进新质生产 力发展，推动实体经济和数字经济深度融合制度落地。 RDA 的核心在于实数融合，强调数据和其他实体资产的交互融合 相关研究报告 《周观点：持续看好稳定币和 RWA 投 资机会—行业周报》-2025.7.13 《脑机接口：从概念到落地，开启交 互新时代—行业深度报告》-2025.7.11 《稳定币和AI产业持续催化—行业周 报》-2025.7.6 锚定实数融合资产，RDA 推动数据价值化 ——行业点评报告 陈宝健（分析师） 刘逍遥（分析师） c ...