2025 年 11 月 09 日 北交所研究团队 汽车产业链业绩领跑，北证科技产业三季报凸显结构性机遇 ——北交所策略专题报告 诸海滨（分析师） zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 北证科技三季报盘点：汽车产业链逆势领跑，成科技新产业中唯一亮点 北交所三季报披露收官。科技新产业共计 155 家企业，在 2025Q1-3 共实现营收 631.38 亿元，同比增长 0.73%；总归母净利润 48.60 亿元同比-13.83%。电子产业 企业在 2025Q1-3 共实现营收 170.73 亿元同比增长 9.51%，总归母净利润 160,021.78 万元同比-15.88%。产业内关注如创远信科（+109.05%）、同惠电子 （+59.36%）、雅葆轩（+36.59%）等。汽车产业 2025Q1-3 实现总营收 115.94 亿 元同比增长 17.89%，总归母净利润 13.99 亿元同比增长 19.49%，是科技新产业 中实现营收、净利润均双增长的行业。产业内关注林泰新材（+131.19%）等。 信息技术产业 2025Q1-3 实现营收 55.61 亿元同比-7.94%，总 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The controlled nuclear fusion sector is experiencing steady progress in the development and construction of fusion devices, with significant core component orders expected to be released continuously. The BEST device construction is advancing, and projects like Spark One, Xianjue Fusion, and Circulation Four are anticipated to commence sequentially. If the feasibility of the FRC technology route is validated, related startup projects in China may accelerate [8][27] - The recent approval of the international standard ISO 18518:2025, led by the Institute of Plasma Physics, marks a significant achievement for China in the field of superconducting magnet technology and establishes safety benchmarks for fusion devices [20][21] - The domestic ion cyclotron heating leader, Xirong Zhaobo, has completed several million yuan in Pre-A financing, indicating strong market potential for auxiliary heating systems in nuclear fusion [26] Summary by Sections Sector Review - In the week of November 3 to November 7, 2025, half of the sub-sectors in the controlled nuclear fusion sector saw price increases, with notable gains in companies such as Hailu Heavy Industry (+61.0%) and Lansi Heavy Industry (+34.6%). The overall trend indicates more stocks rose than fell [5][14] Industry Dynamics - The ISO standard for magnetic fusion facilities was officially approved, establishing safety requirements for superconducting technology applications in tokamak fusion devices. This is China's first international standard in the field, enhancing its influence in superconducting magnet technology [20][21] - The Ministry of Science and Technology will host an exhibition and matchmaking event for nuclear fusion technology achievements on November 27, 2025, promoting industry collaboration [22] - Recent procurement announcements from the Institute of Plasma Physics and Fusion New Energy have a cumulative budget of several hundred million yuan, indicating robust demand for core components [23][25] Company Developments - Xirong Zhaobo, a leading domestic company in ion cyclotron heating, has successfully completed a Pre-A financing round, highlighting the growing investment interest in nuclear fusion auxiliary heating systems. The company is the only one in China to achieve system-level delivery to multiple fusion devices [26] Weekly Outlook - The long-term development prospects of the nuclear fusion sector are viewed positively, with recommendations to focus on core components such as magnets, main devices, and power supplies. Beneficiary companies include West Superconducting, Yongding Co., and others in various segments [27][28]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The electronic industry is experiencing a downturn due to liquidity concerns in the US, with domestic technology stocks also facing pressure. The electronic industry index fell by 0.22%, with consumer electronics down 2.05% and semiconductors down 0.11% [3][4] - Despite the overall market weakness, there are emerging opportunities in the AI and semiconductor sectors, particularly with upcoming product launches expected at CES in January [7] Summary by Sections Market Review - Domestic technology stocks have declined, influenced by new public fund benchmark regulations. The Nasdaq dropped by 3.04%, while major companies like Nvidia and AMD saw significant declines of 7.08% and 8.82%, respectively [3] - Storage companies performed well, with SanDisk increasing by 20.14% and Micron by 6.32% [3] Industry Updates - The storage sector is experiencing price increases due to shortages, with HBM4 prices exceeding HBM3E by over 50%. Samsung has delayed DDR5 contract pricing until mid-November, with spot prices tripling [6] - AI-related products are gaining traction, with Lenovo's AI glasses and Xiaopeng's humanoid robot generating significant interest [4][5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key beneficiaries such as Luxshare Precision, Zhuhai CosMX, Cambricon, Industrial Fulian, Huahong Semiconductor, and Tongfu Microelectronics as potential investment opportunities [7]

Core Insights - The retail industry is experiencing a shift from value preservation to emotional value, with a focus on high-growth segments for investment opportunities [5][28] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the retail sector, emphasizing the importance of consumer insights and differentiated product offerings [5][28] Retail Market Overview - The retail index reported a slight increase of 0.31% during the week of November 3 to November 7, 2025, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.08% [7][16] - Year-to-date, the retail index has increased by 4.20%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index's 19.27% growth [16][20] Investment Strategy for 2026 - The investment strategy highlights four main themes: 1. **Gold and Jewelry**: Focus on high-end and fashionable gold segments, with recommendations for brands like Lao Pu Gold and Chao Hong Ji [5][48] 2. **Retail E-commerce**: Emphasize the transformation of offline retail to enhance service and experience, with key players like Yonghui Supermarket and Ai Ying Shi [5][48] 3. **Cosmetics**: Target domestic brands that capture emotional value and innovate on safety ingredients, recommending brands like Juzi Biological and Pechoin [5][49] 4. **Medical Aesthetics**: Focus on differentiated product manufacturers and expanding medical institutions, with recommendations for brands like Ai Mei Ke and Ke Di-B [5][49] Sector Performance - The jewelry sector is undergoing significant changes due to rising gold prices and a decline in traditional wedding markets, leading to the emergence of brands with strong consumer insights [5][29] - The cosmetics sector is seeing a rise in domestic brands leveraging cultural roots and emotional value to capture market share [5][41] Company-Specific Insights - **Chao Hong Ji**: Reported a revenue increase of 28.4% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with a notable performance in Q3 [54] - **Yonghui Supermarket**: Experienced a revenue decline of 22.2% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, but is undergoing significant transformation [50] - **Juzi Biological**: Achieved a revenue growth of 21.7% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, focusing on collagen products [50]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The liquor sector is entering a layout phase, with the snack segment being the preferred choice for consumer goods. The food and beverage index experienced a decline of 0.6% from November 3 to November 7, ranking 25th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 1.4 percentage points. The processed food (+2.3%), baked goods (+1.7%), and meat products (+0.8%) sectors performed relatively well. The food and beverage sector has significantly underperformed the market since the beginning of 2025 due to changes in consumer environment and market style. Factors include the impact of alcohol bans, pressure on household income expectations, and a noticeable shift of funds towards technology sectors. The current underlying logic of the sector indicates that the fundamentals are nearing a bottom, with recovery expectations gradually warming up. The negative impacts on the industry have largely been released, and the marginal effects of alcohol bans are slowing down. Some companies are actively reducing supply to achieve a balance between supply and demand, alleviating channel pressures and releasing channel risks. Strengthened policy expectations are boosting demand in related consumption areas. The fundamentals are at a bottom, and the sector's valuation has dropped to a low point, with fund holdings in food and beverage remaining at a low level, indicating a relatively good chip structure. Therefore, there is no need for pessimism at this stage. Looking ahead to 2026, the main theme for the food and beverage industry is a recovery from the bottom, with the pace and strength of recovery being closely related to macroeconomic conditions. It is expected that consumer resilience will be maintained, and increased economic activity will boost business consumption [4][12][13]. Summary by Sections Weekly Viewpoints - The liquor sector is entering a layout phase, with the snack segment being the preferred choice for consumer goods. The food and beverage index experienced a decline of 0.6% from November 3 to November 7, ranking 25th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 1.4 percentage points. The processed food (+2.3%), baked goods (+1.7%), and meat products (+0.8%) sectors performed relatively well [12][14]. Market Performance - The food and beverage index declined by 0.6%, ranking 25th out of 28 sectors, and underperformed the CSI 300 by about 1.4 percentage points. Leading individual stocks included Anji Food, Huifa Food, and Barbie Food, while Jinzi Ham, Jiu Gui Jiu, and Gu Qing Gong Jiu saw significant declines [14][19]. Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased. For instance, the price of whole milk powder at GDT auction was $3,503 per ton, down 3.0% month-on-month and 5.7% year-on-year. The domestic fresh milk price was 3.0 yuan per kilogram, down 0.3% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year [19][21]. Liquor Industry News - The launch of the 2025 special edition of Langpai Lang was announced, with a suggested retail price of 299 yuan per bottle. The product features classic packaging elements and is limited in availability. Additionally, significant growth in white liquor sales was reported during the Double 11 shopping event, with brands like Moutai and Wuliangye seeing year-on-year increases exceeding 100% [47][48]. Recommended Portfolio - The recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Weilong Delicious, and Bairun Shares. Guizhou Moutai is focusing on sustainable development despite short-term demand pressures. Shanxi Fenjiu has high mid-term growth certainty. Ximai Food is expanding rapidly in new channels, while Weilong Delicious is stabilizing its base with new product launches. Bairun Shares is improving its pre-mixed liquor trends [5][54].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability, particularly in the phosphorous chemical sector, driven by strong demand for lithium iron phosphate and rising electricity costs, leading to price increases for most phosphorous chemical products [4][24][29] - The report highlights a trend of "anti-involution" in the caprolactam industry, with a 20% production cut agreed upon by manufacturers to stabilize prices [5] - The overall chemical industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.72% this week, indicating a positive market sentiment [16] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The phosphorous chemical market is seeing a favorable demand for lithium iron phosphate, with prices for yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid rising due to strong cost support and limited supply [4][24] - The average price of yellow phosphorus reached 22,486 CNY/ton, up 2.34% from the previous week [24] - Phosphoric acid prices have also increased, with an average of 10,530 CNY/ton, reflecting strong market orders [4][25] Key Products - The price of industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate (MAP) has risen to 6,082 CNY/ton, a 2.32% increase from the previous week, driven by stable demand and limited supply [4][26] - The price of diammonium phosphate (DAP) remains stable at 3,596 CNY/ton, with cautious purchasing behavior observed among traders [4][27] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include leading companies in the chemical sector such as Xingfa Group and Yuntianhua, while beneficiary stocks include companies like Hubei Yihua and Chuanheng Co [4][6][29] - The report emphasizes the importance of integrated operations in the phosphorous chemical sector, which enhances competitive barriers and supports long-term profitability [29] Market Performance - The chemical industry index reported a 3.54% increase this week, with 72.59% of the stocks in the sector showing positive performance [16][21] - The report tracks price movements across 226 chemical products, with 63 products seeing price increases and 96 experiencing declines [17]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the communication industry, indicating a favorable outlook for future growth [1] - Lumentum's financial performance is highlighted, with significant revenue growth driven by cloud computing and AI infrastructure needs [5][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of optical chips as a core growth engine for Lumentum, with substantial increases in sales across various product categories [6][14] Group 1: Lumentum's Performance - Lumentum reported Q1 FY26 revenue of $533.8 million, a year-on-year increase of 58.44% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.05% [5][13] - The company's non-GAAP operating profit reached $99.8 million, with an operating margin of 18.7%, reflecting a 15.7 percentage point increase year-on-year [5][13] - The growth in revenue is primarily attributed to the acceleration of cloud computing and AI business [5][13] Group 2: Optical Chip Sales - Lumentum's component business generated $379.2 million in revenue for Q1 FY26, a year-on-year increase of 63.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.4% [6][14] - The report notes record shipments of 100G and 200G EML lasers, as well as significant growth in DCI lasers used for data center interconnects [6][14] - The system business also saw revenue of $154.6 million, driven by cloud transceiver business, although it experienced a slight quarter-on-quarter decline [6][14] Group 3: Future Guidance - Lumentum expects Q2 FY26 revenue to be between $630 million and $670 million, with non-GAAP operating margins projected between 20.0% and 22.0% [15][16] - The company anticipates continued growth in both component and system business revenues, with a strong outlook for data center and optical switching markets [15][16] - The report highlights the potential for significant growth in AI-related sectors, particularly in optical communication [17][16] Group 4: Communication Industry Trends - As of August 2025, China had a total of 4.646 million 5G base stations, with a net increase of 395,000 stations since the end of 2024 [26][29] - The number of 5G mobile phone users reached 1.154 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.46% [26][29] - The report indicates that 5G mobile phone shipments in August 2025 were 19.992 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [26][29] Group 5: Operator Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Mobile's cloud revenue reached 56.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3% [42][40] - China Telecom's Tianyi Cloud revenue for the same period was 57.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [42][41] - China Unicom's cloud revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 52.9 billion yuan [42][43]

Group 1 - The report identifies three main factors influencing convertible bond performance: equity-debt price ratio, dollar liquidity, and large-small cap style [2][11][20] - The current economic environment is characterized by a recovery phase, but limited incremental benefits due to insufficient momentum from households and enterprises [2][12][39] - The dollar is expected to remain in a loose monetary environment, which historically supports equity markets [2][16][19] Group 2 - Convertible bonds are currently in a trading phase that follows the performance of underlying stocks, having experienced three cycles since 2018 [3][27][28] - The median price of convertible bonds as of November 3, 2025, is 132.72 yuan, placing it at the 99.3% historical percentile, indicating a high valuation level [4][34][35] - The median conversion premium is 27%, which is at the 55.3% historical percentile, suggesting a relatively high valuation in the current market [4][34][35] Group 3 - The report recommends a balanced investment strategy for convertible bonds, focusing on equity-like convertible bonds priced above 120 yuan, with specific recommendations for various sectors [5][39][41] - Recommended convertible bonds include those from financial consumption, public utilities, AI and robotics, as well as semiconductor and manufacturing sectors [5][39][41] Group 4 - The investor behavior analysis shows that the total outstanding convertible bond scale has decreased from 844.7 billion yuan in January 2025 to 759.5 billion yuan in October 2025, with funds increasing their holdings [29][31] - The report highlights a shift in investor composition, with funds increasing their share from 34.3% to 39.8% during the same period, while insurance institutions have reduced their holdings significantly [29][32]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is mentioned in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market expectations are expected to be revised, and the stock market may rise while the bond market falls from November to December 2025, similar to the situation from August to September [1][4][6]. - The bond yield is expected to trend upward under the correction of economic expectations, and the stock market and bond yield are expected to continue rising [6][8]. - The economic growth rate in the second half of 2025 may not decline significantly, and structural problems such as prices are expected to improve [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Bond Market Pricing and Influencing Factors - Since October 2025, the decline in bond yields has little to do with the central bank's bond - buying. The current bond pricing is more related to weak fundamental expectations. After the central bank restarted bond - buying on October 27, 2025, the decline in the 30 - year Treasury bond yield was basically the same as that of the 2 - year bond, indicating that the bond market is significantly affected by the fundamentals [3]. Comparison of Market Situations in Different Periods - In July 2025, the economic PMI was 49.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decline from June, leading to obvious market pessimism. However, from August to September, the bond yield rose significantly, and the stock market went up, mainly due to the repair of pessimistic market expectations and positive marginal policy changes [4]. - In October 2025, the PMI was 49%, lower than expected and the lowest value of the year, causing market pessimism again. But it is considered that the economic situation in October is similar to that in July, just a short - term decline. With the implementation of policy measures, the economy from November to December is expected to improve [4]. Policy Requirements for GDP Target - The GDP growth target for 2025 is 5.0%, which requires a 4.6% growth in the fourth quarter. After excluding the base effect, the GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 actually needs to improve by 0.6 percentage points month - on - month. Considering the weak economy in October, policies need to continue to be strengthened from November to December to achieve the annual target [5]. Bond Market Outlook - It is believed that the economy from November to December 2025 will probably improve marginally, and the market may repeat the situation from August to September. The bond yield is expected to trend upward [6]. Stock - Bond Allocation View - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly, and structural problems such as prices are expected to improve. The stock - bond allocation continues to switch, with bond yields and the stock market expected to continue rising [7][8].

- The report predicts adjustments in the constituents of the CSI 300 Index, with 11 stocks expected to be adjusted. Predicted additions include Huadian New Energy, Shenghong Technology, and Shanghai Electric, while removals include Nasda, Xingyu Shares, and Foster. The additions are primarily concentrated in the electronics sector, with five stocks selected, while removals are mainly from the power equipment and automotive sectors, with four stocks removed from the power equipment sector[2][13][14] - The report predicts adjustments in the constituents of the CSI 500 Index, with 50 stocks expected to be adjusted. Predicted additions include Beiqi Blue Valley, Electric Investment Energy, and OFILM, while removals include Shenghong Technology, Ruixin Micro, and Xinnowei. Some additions to the CSI 500 Index come from the original constituents of the CSI 300 Index, such as Lu'an Huaneng, Trina Solar, and Baiyunshan, while some removals from the CSI 500 Index transition to the latest constituents of the CSI 300 Index, such as Shenghong Technology, Ruixin Micro, and Guolian Minsheng. Additions are mainly concentrated in the power equipment, electronics, and automotive sectors, while removals are concentrated in the pharmaceutical, electronics, and computer sectors[3][16][18] - The report highlights the event return characteristics of sample adjustments for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices. It notes that the market tends to react in advance to the impact of constituent adjustments, with stock prices rising before additions and falling before removals. Specifically, stocks added to the indices exhibit positive excess returns before the adjustment date, while stocks removed from the indices show negative excess returns before the adjustment date[4][5][23]