《11 月新房价格环比降幅缩小，上海 新 房 同 比 领 涨 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.12.15 《新房二手房成交面积同比下降，着 力 稳 定 房 地 产 市 场 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.12.14 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《高基数下销售疲软，年末市场延续 以 价 换 量 趋 势 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.12.15 行 业 研 究 2025 年 12 月 21 日 新房二手房成交面积环比增长，住建部强调促进地产 市场供需平衡 ——行业周报 模环比下降。本周住建部提出根据人口变化合理确定住房需求，科学安排土地供 应、引导配置金融资源，实现以人定房、以房定地、以房定钱，促进房地产市场 供需平衡、结构合理。我们认为，在各项促进房地产市场止跌回稳政策作用下， 2025 年以来我国房地产市场整体朝着止跌回稳的方向迈进，在止跌回稳的过程 中，房价仍可能存在小幅度震荡，期待后续在政策作用下，房地产市场进一步稳 定。 ...

海外 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2024-12-23 2025-01-23 2025-02-23 2025-03-23 2025-04-23 2025-05-23 2025-06-23 2025-07-23 2025-08-23 2025-09-23 2025-10-23 2025-11-23 Wind 恒生指数 2025 年 12 月 21 日 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《存储依然高景气，H200 有望获批对 华出口 —行业周报》-2025.12.14 《谷歌 Gemini3 增益生态，存储有望 持续高景气—行业周报》-2025.12.7 《AI 需求持续验证，提升算力需求可 预见性—行业周报》-2025.11.23 国内 L3 级准入试点许可，百融云硅基员工+ Anthropic Skill 范式发布，关注 Agent 产业机会 ——行业周报 | 初敏（分析师） | 张可（分析师） | 杨哲（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | chumin@kysec.cn | zhangke1@kysec.cn | yangzhe@ky ...

——投资策略周报 韦冀星（分析师） 耿驰政（联系人） weijixing@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524030002 gengchizheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125050007 修复进程的放缓并不等于未进行有效修复 周内市场一度出现较大幅回撤，我们于 11 月 21 号提出"调整暂告一段落可以 适当积极"的观点真的错了吗？我们认为修复节奏以及指数的放缓并不代表赚 钱效应没有积极改善。近期年内强势品类如 AI 硬件（通信 NV 链条）一度再创新 高、军工等调整时间维度较长的超跌成长在酝酿新机会，创业板指也回到强势运 行范围，因此市场的赚钱效应其实是在真实修复的。但由于海内外扰动仍然存在， 市场的合力并不足，因此修复进程也如我们此前提示的并非一蹴而就的过程。当 前市场呈现出"高景气赛道强于中小盘、中小盘强于上证指数、上证指数又显著 强于港股"的特征，体现出（1）海外流动性的扰动仍存，港股的拖累更明显； （2）比起快速拉升指数的修复，先通过弹性品类稳住赚钱效应的思路仍在。 近期市场调整的几大因素影响都在减弱 2025 年 12 月 21 日 策略研究团队 牛市眼光看后市，震荡思 ...

Domestic Macro Policy - The central government emphasizes a stable and progressive economic work approach for 2026, focusing on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement, with a projected GDP of approximately 140 trillion yuan for this year[3][10]. - The government plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, enhancing the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance through integrated stock and incremental policies[3][10]. - The focus on expanding domestic demand is prioritized as a key task for next year, aiming to boost consumption from both supply and demand sides[5][17]. Infrastructure and Industry Policy - Recent policies include the release of the first batch of L3 conditional autonomous driving vehicle permits and the introduction of antitrust compliance guidelines for internet platforms[13][14]. - The 2026 national energy work conference has set key tasks, emphasizing the transition to green and low-carbon energy sources, with an expected addition of over 200 million kilowatts of wind and solar power capacity[14]. Real Estate Policy - Shandong Province has introduced guidelines for a "housing old-for-new" program, proposing three models to encourage housing upgrades[15][16]. - The total urban housing demand during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is estimated to be around 4.98 billion square meters[16]. Financial Regulation - The central financial committee stresses the importance of effectively managing financial risks related to local small and medium financial institutions and real estate enterprises, while also addressing local government financing platform debts[19][20]. - The merger plan for China International Capital Corporation (CICC) with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities has been announced, marking a significant consolidation in the financial sector[20]. Overseas Macro Policy - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%–3.75%, with a voting outcome of 9 in favor and 3 against, indicating a cautious approach to future rate changes[24]. - The European Central Bank has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2%, aligning with market expectations, while the Bank of Japan has raised its rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% to combat persistent inflation[24][25].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The electronic industry index decreased by 3.02% during the week of December 15-19, 2025, with semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors experiencing declines of 3.26% and 4.12%, respectively [3] - The storage sector showed resilience, with significant gains in major companies such as Micron and SanDisk, indicating a strong performance amidst overall market fluctuations [3][4] - The report highlights the ongoing updates in AI models and the sustained high demand in the storage sector, suggesting a positive outlook for companies involved in AI computing and storage solutions [4][6] Market Review - The U.S. tech sector rebounded after a significant drop, while the A-share electronic sector faced a general decline [3] - Notable performances included Nvidia rising by 3.41%, Tesla by 4.85%, and Micron by 10.28%, while Apple and Google saw slight declines [3] Industry Updates - Multiple significant AI model updates were released, with companies like Xiaomi and Google launching advanced models that enhance performance and efficiency [4] - Apple is collaborating with Broadcom to develop an AI inference chip, expected to enter mass production in 2026 [5] Storage Sector Insights - Storage prices are continuing to rise, impacting downstream terminal pricing, with Dell planning to increase commercial PC prices by 10% to 30% [6] - Micron's FY26Q1 revenue reached $13.64 billion, a year-over-year increase of 57%, with guidance for FY26Q2 revenue also exceeding market expectations [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-growth sectors such as storage and AI computing, as well as the end-side AI sector, which is expected to maintain strong demand [7] - Beneficiary companies include North Huachuang, Tuojing Technology, and others involved in the AI and storage sectors [7]

数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 非银金融 沪深300 非银金融 2025 年 12 月 21 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 相关研究报告 《美联储降息利好券商海外业务，新 规规范基金销售 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.12.14 《券商杠杆上限有望松绑，险企调降 风 险 因 子 释 放 资 金 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.12.7 《监管态度转向积极，看好券商板块 行情—吴清主席在中证协大会的致辞 学习》-2025.12.7 保险公司资负管理办法发布，明确监管指标和阈值 ——行业周报 | 高超（分析师） 卢崑（分析师） | 张恩琦（联系人） | | --- | --- | | gaochao1@kysec.cn lukun@kysec.cn | zhangenqi@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520050001 证书编号：S0790524040002 | 证书编号：S0790125080012 | |  周观点：保险公司资负管理办法发布，明确监管指标和阈值 | | 12 月 5 日至今 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The biopharmaceutical investment and financing environment has shown significant recovery since the second half of 2025, with a total financing amount of USD 30.32 billion from July to November 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.90% [4] - The number of new drug IND applications stabilized in 2025, with approximately 1,897 applications from January to November, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 7.91% [4] - The demand for CRO services has shown a clear turning point, and the report continues to recommend opportunities in the innovative drug industry chain (CXO + research services) for 2026 [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The biopharmaceutical sector experienced a decline of 0.14% in the third week of December 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.14 percentage points, ranking 22nd among 31 sub-industries [7][14] - The offline pharmacy sector saw the highest increase, rising by 5.59%, while the chemical preparation sector had the largest decline at 2.1% [18][22] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights the strong performance of leading CXO and research service companies, with many exceeding earnings expectations. Companies like WuXi AppTec and Tigermed have raised their earnings guidance for 2025 [5] - The report recommends a valuation switch opportunity for leading CXO and research service companies, given the continuous improvement in demand [5] Clinical Research Organizations (CRO) - There has been a notable improvement in orders for preclinical and clinical CROs, with expectations for significant improvements in financial statements for 2026 [6] - The report anticipates that the market demand will continue to focus on leading companies as the capacity of clinical CROs is expected to be streamlined [6] Monthly and Weekly Recommendations - The report recommends a monthly investment portfolio including companies such as Sanofi, Innovent Biologics, and others, focusing on innovative drug opportunities and valuation switch [8]

金融工程专题 2025 年 12 月 21 日 金融工程研究团队 魏建榕（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790519120001 傅开波（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090003 高 鹏（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090002 苏俊豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522020001 胡亮勇（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522030001 王志豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522070003 盛少成（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060003 我们在专题报告《大单与小单资金流的 alpha 能力》中，对日度资金流信息进行 了标准化和动量中性化两步处理，构造得到了大单和小单资金流残差因子。日度 资金流残差因子选股效果优异，样本外选股效果相对稳健。本文参考日度资金流 残差因子的构造思路，以逐笔成交数据合成得到的分钟资金流信息为对象，提供 三类分钟资金流因子的构造方法。 蒋 韬（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525070001 相关研究报告 《大小单资金流为核心的综合行业轮 动方案—市场微观结构系列（23）》 -2024.1.28 《大小单资金流 alpha 探究 2.0：变量 精筛与高 ...

食品饮料 2025 年 12 月 21 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% -7% 0% 7% 14% 22% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《中央经济工作会议积极定调，飞天 批价或止跌触底 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.12.14 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 报 告 《白酒短期批价扰动，西麦新品值得 关注—行业周报》-2025.12.7 《茅台韧性凸显，建议长期配置布局 —行业周报》-2025.11.30 消费筑底政策共振，白酒或至底部重视布局 ——行业周报 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525080001 核心观点：内需政策赋能消费，白酒进入深度调整期 12 月 15 日-12 月 19 日，食品饮料指数涨幅为 1.0%，一级子行业排名第 11，跑 赢沪深 300 约 1.3pct，子行业中烘焙食品（+8.0%）、零食（+7.5%）、预加工食 品（+5.6% ...

北交所策略专题报告 2025 年 12 月 21 日 2025 年北交所复盘：小巨人独立枝头，单项冠军稀缺性标的脱颖而出 ——北交所策略专题报告 北交所研究团队 诸海滨（分析师） zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 北交所 2025 年行情复盘，看好 2026 年北交所小巨人+单项冠军稀缺性标的 2025 年以来北证 50 中枢提升至 1400 点左右。复盘 2025 年行情来看，本轮北交 所的行情可以分为三个阶段：一季度快速拉升阶段、二三季度震荡上行阶段、四 季度回调阶段。其中以 2025 年 1 月 1 日的北证 50 和北证专精特新指数为基数计 算累计收益率。快速拉升阶段（2025 年 1 月 1 日 - 3 月 11 日），北证 50 指数从 1,037.81 点快速增长至 1,418.65 点，累计收益率达 36.70%，北证专精特新从 1683.33 点增长至 2421.50 点，累计收益率达 43.85%。震荡上行阶段（2025 年 4 月 7 日 - 9 月 5 日），北证 50 指数从 1044.07 点增长至 1647.01 点，累计收益率 达 5 ...