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行业周报:存储延续高景气度,晶圆厂涨价预期强烈-20251228
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-12-28 11:46
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates a significant recovery in the electronic sector, with a notable increase in stock prices driven by improved sentiment around AI and strong performance in semiconductor and consumer electronics segments [3][4] - The storage market continues to show high demand, with price increases for NAND flash wafers and SSDs, reflecting a bullish outlook for the sector [6][7] Market Review - The electronic industry index rose by 4.71% this week, with semiconductors up 5.07% and consumer electronics increasing by 3.48%. Notable stock performances include SK Hynix rising by 9.51% and Micron by 7.10% [3][4] - The report highlights the impact of the Christmas season on tech stocks, contributing to overall market gains [3] Industry Updates - New product launches are driving market excitement, including Samsung's first 2nm processor and Huawei's nova 15 series, which features advanced technology and performance improvements [4] - Major companies are enhancing their computational power collaborations, with significant projects like Oracle's data center approved in Michigan [5] Pricing Trends - The report notes a continuous upward trend in storage prices, with NAND flash wafer prices increasing by over 10% and SSD prices rising by 15% to 20% [6] - Expectations for price hikes in wafer production are also noted, with companies like SMIC and TSMC implementing price adjustments [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests several beneficiaries from the current market conditions, including SMIC, Beijing Junzheng, and Huafeng Technology, among others [7]
行业周报:瑞博生物通过港交所IPO聆讯,上市在即-20251228
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-12-28 11:14
医药生物 2025 年 12 月 28 日 投资评级:看好(维持) 行业走势图 数据来源:聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 医药生物 沪深300 相关研究报告 《推荐 CXO+科研服务板块的估值切 换机会—行业周报》-2025.12.21 《2025 国谈结果公布,关注相关公司 投资机会—行业周报》-2025.12.14 《必贝特在小核酸领域的差异化布局 —行业周报》-2025.12.7 瑞博生物通过港交所 IPO 聆讯,上市在即 ——行业周报 | 余汝意(分析师) | 巢舒然(分析师) | | --- | --- | | yuruyi@kysec.cn | chaoshuran@kysec.cn | | 证书编号:S0790523070002 | 证书编号:S0790525110001 | chaoshuran@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790525110001 瑞博生物港交所 IPO 申请通过聆讯,上市在即 2025 年 12 月 21 日,瑞博生物港交所 IPO 申请通过聆讯,即将挂牌上市。瑞博 生物成立于 2007 年,是一家 ...
中小盘周报:商业航天IPO利好频出,关注传统行业转型机会-20251228
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-12-28 10:44
Group 1: Commercial Aerospace IPO Developments - The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued guidelines on December 26, 2025, detailing the fifth set of listing standards for commercial rocket companies, marking a significant policy breakthrough[3] - Blue Arrow Aerospace completed its IPO counseling on December 23, 2025, becoming the first private rocket company to pass the IPO counseling process, with a valuation of 20 billion yuan[14] - Several commercial aerospace startups, including Star River Power and Micro Nano Starry Sky, are set to complete their IPO counseling in the second half of 2025, indicating a collective push into the capital market[4] Group 2: Traditional Industry Transformation Opportunities - Traditional industry companies are leveraging existing technological synergies and manufacturing capabilities to enter the high-growth commercial aerospace sector[4] - Two main strategies for traditional industries entering commercial aerospace are identified: technology extension and capital strategic layout[15] - Technology extension involves using core technologies from traditional sectors, such as automotive and rail transport, to develop aerospace applications, exemplified by companies like Jinchang Group and Superjet[16] - Capital strategic layout includes investments and acquisitions to quickly enter the commercial aerospace market, as seen with Tongyu Communications and Dongzhu Ecology's acquisition of Kai Rui Star Communication[17] Group 3: Market Performance and Trends - The A-share market saw a general increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.88% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 3.53% during the week of December 20-26, 2025[18] - The lithium battery electrolyte index experienced the highest growth this week, with a rise of 17.80%, led by companies like Tianji Co. and Huasheng Lithium[20] - Small-cap indices outperformed large-cap indices, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices rising by 4.03% and 3.76%, respectively[19]
北交所策略专题报告:北证文创国潮主线浮现:从柏星龙AI文创到朱炳仁铜上市辅导
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-12-28 10:44
本周末北证 50 报收 1463.03 点,周涨跌幅为+1.19%。消费服务本周走势较弱, 跌幅在五大行业中较大,周涨跌幅为-1.95%。本周开源北交所北交所消费服务二 级行业大部分出现下跌,商业服务、农林牧渔、建筑装饰、包装印刷本周上涨, 其中涨幅超过 1%的有:商业服务(+2.18%)、农林牧渔(+1.35%)、包装印刷 (+1.37%)。个股情况来看,本周 23.40%的消费服务标的市值有所上涨。分二级 行业来看,农林牧渔有 60%以上的标的本周上涨。周涨跌幅居前的个股分别为宏 裕包材(+24.67%)、北矿检测(+14.28%)、田野股份(+13.19%)、铜冠矿建 (+5.32%)、秋乐种业(+2.45%)、康农种业(+2.31%)、中纺标(+0.94%)、广 咨国际(+0.94%)、中设咨询(+0.26%)、国航远洋(+0.1%)。 北交所策略专题报告 2025 年 12 月 28 日 北证文创国潮主线浮现—从柏星龙 AI 文创到朱炳仁铜上市辅导 北交所研究团队 ——北交所策略专题报告 诸海滨(分析师) zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790522080007 文旅产业发展快速 ...
行业周报:白酒龙头抗风险能力突出,原奶供需平衡点渐行渐近-20251228
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-12-28 10:44
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The value of layout in the high-end liquor sector is becoming evident, and the optimization of raw milk supply and demand is creating investment opportunities [3][12] - The food and beverage index experienced a decline of 0.6% from December 22 to December 26, ranking 25th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 2.5 percentage points [12][14] - The high-end liquor industry is currently in a deep adjustment period due to slowing economic growth and insufficient consumer confidence, but there are signs of demand improvement compared to the second and third quarters [12] - The price strategy for premium liquor brands like Moutai is stabilizing, with recent prices in the range of 1500-1600 RMB, and significant price drops are not expected in the near future [12] - The raw milk supply-demand gap has slightly narrowed, with a short-term recovery in demand due to pre-holiday stocking, but long-term supply remains in surplus [4][13] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The liquor sector shows layout value, and the raw milk supply-demand optimization is generating investment opportunities [3][12] - The food and beverage index underperformed the market, with specific sub-sectors like health products and other foods showing relative strength [12][14] Market Performance - The food and beverage index fell by 0.6%, ranking 25th out of 28 sectors, with health products (+0.5%) and other foods (+0.0%) performing relatively better [12][14] Upstream Data - Recent data indicates a decline in some upstream raw material prices, with full-fat milk powder auction prices down 18.7% year-on-year [20][21] Liquor Industry News - Prices for premium Moutai products have increased, reflecting strong market demand and limited supply [42] Recommended Portfolio - Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and West Oat Foods, among others, focusing on companies with strong performance stability and risk resilience [5][48]
北交所策略专题报告:2025年打新择时复盘:上市首日售出策略仍然为短期最佳策略
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-12-28 07:44
2025 年 12 月 28 日 北交所策略专题报告 2025 年打新择时复盘:上市首日售出策略仍然为短期最佳策略 ——北交所策略专题报告 北交所研究团队 诸海滨(分析师) zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790522080007 北交所 2025 年打新择时复盘,一周内新股股价最高日通常为上市首日 从 2025 年北交所节奏上来看,截至 2025 年 12 月 26 日,2025 年 1-12 月北交所 合计过会 49 家企业,合计上市 25 家企业,从 2025 年 4 季度开始,北交所上市 节奏出现提升,其中 2025 年 11-12 月北交所合计过会 22 家企业。从 2024 年至 今 48 家上市企业一周内股价变化趋势来看,多数企业股价最高日为上市首日。 我们按照上市日期为 T 日,上市企业股价最高日在 T 日、T+1、T+2、T+3、T+4、 T+5、T+6、T+7 的占比分别为 72.92%、0.00%、4.17% 、2.08%、4.17%、6.25%、 2.08%、8.33%。其中,一周内股价最高日不是上市首日的企业数量共有 13 家, 整体来主要由于 1)上市首日市场情 ...
掘金3D打印:商业航天“降本利器”,关注钛合金等核心材料环节
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-12-28 07:44
掘金 3D 打印:商业航天"降本利器",关注钛合金等核心材料环节 北交所策略专题报告 2025 年 12 月 28 日 北交所研究团队 ——北交所策略专题报告 诸海滨(分析师) zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790522080007 3D 打印行业加速崛起,商业航天有望成为需求主线 3D 打印即增材制造,不同于传统制造将原料"削减"加工成所需形状,3D 打印 可一体化成型复杂结构产品,具有快捷、低成本、高精度等优势。3D 打印经过 30 余年的发展,已经形成了一条完整的产业链,下游行业应用已覆盖航天航空、 汽车工业、船舶制造、能源动力、轨道交通、电子工业、模具制造、医疗健康、 文化创意、建筑等各领域。根据中商产业研究院相关数据,2025 年我国 3D 打印 市场规模预计达 457 亿元,较 2020 年的 208 亿元实现翻倍以上增长。航空航天 是 3D 打印核心的下游应用领域,主要针对火箭发动机的制造(发动机成本占比 50%),可实现大幅度的降本,目前已经在 SpaceX 实现大面积应用。北交所中天 工股份是国内钛及钛合金行业龙头企业,公司不断强化钛及钛合金研发与生产工 艺革新,持续加 ...
行业周报:晶圆代工厂涨价,深蓝首批L3车辆上路-20251228
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-12-28 07:44
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the semiconductor foundry price increases have alleviated market concerns regarding the demand for mature processes in 2026, primarily due to improved competitive dynamics and rising raw material costs [5][14] - The automotive sector is experiencing continued pressure on retail sales, with the first batch of L3 autonomous vehicles from Deep Blue officially registered and on the road [6][30] - In the tools sector, TTI has terminated its HART business to strengthen mid-term profitability, while SBD's divestiture of its aerospace segment is expected to significantly reduce debt and optimize leverage ratios [31][43] Summary by Sections Electronics - Semiconductor foundries have raised some production capacities, leading to a 5.4% increase in the electronics index, outperforming the Hang Seng Technology Index [5][14] - Notable stock performances include SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor, which rose by 9.2% and 5.5% respectively [5][14] Automotive - Retail sales in the passenger car market are under pressure, with a 19% year-on-year decline in retail volume for December 2025 compared to December 2024, although there was a 5% month-on-month increase [25][26] - The first L3 autonomous vehicles from Deep Blue were officially registered on December 26, 2025, marking a significant milestone in autonomous driving technology [30] Tools - TTI's termination of the HART business aims to enhance mid-term profitability, while SBD's sale of its aerospace business for $1.8 billion is expected to reduce debt significantly [41][43] - The divestiture is projected to create approximately $405 million to $415 million in revenue for the fiscal year 2025, with an adjusted EBITDA margin exceeding 10% [43] Investment Recommendations - In the electronics sector, companies like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor are expected to benefit from the price increases in foundry services [55] - In the automotive sector, attention is drawn to companies involved in L3 autonomous driving and Robotaxi, including Xiaoma Zhixing and Horizon Robotics [55] - In the tools sector, the report recommends companies such as Techtronic Industries and泉峰控股, with beneficiaries including Juxing Technology and Greebo [55]
农林牧渔行业周报:肥猪供给偏紧年前猪价上行,宠物食品出口环比改善-20251228
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-12-28 06:12
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The supply of fat pigs is tight, leading to an upward trend in pig prices before the New Year, supported by both supply and demand factors [4][14] - The export value of pet food has improved month-on-month, benefiting from increased export volumes, although the unit price remains under pressure [5][21] - The pig farming sector is experiencing accelerated losses, while the pet food sector is seeing a rise in domestic brands due to consumption upgrades and tariff barriers [6][23][25] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The average price of live pigs in China as of December 28, 2025, is 12.21 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.78 CNY/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 3.49 CNY/kg [4][14] - The average weight of pigs sold is 129.70 kg, with a slight decrease from the previous week [14] Weekly Market Performance (Dec 22-26) - The agricultural index underperformed the market by 1.63 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.88% and the agricultural index by 0.25% [26][30] Price Tracking (Dec 22-26) - The average price of live pigs is 11.63 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.05 CNY/kg [37] - The average price of broiler chickens is 7.82 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 6.39% [37] Key Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the pig farming sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and Juxing Agriculture [6][23] - In the feed sector, recommended stocks include Haida Group and New Hope Liuhe [6][23] - For the pet food sector, recommended stocks include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty [6][25]
兼评11月企业利润数据:利润延续放缓,工企库销比显著走高
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-12-28 04:14
2025 年 12 月 28 日 利润延续放缓,工企库销比显著走高 宏观研究团队 1、11 月营收增速低位回升、利润当月同比降幅扩大。测算 11 月营收当月同比 约-0.3%、较前值改善了 3.1 个百分点;利润当月同比则下行了 7.6 个百分点至 -13.1%,此前我们曾提示"考虑到 2024Q4 低基数逐步消退,预计工企利润高增 态势难继"。拆分来看(利润增速=工业增加值*PPI*利润率同比),三因子对 11 月利润增速的贡献分别为+4.4、-2.1、-11.4 个百分点。量(工增)的正贡献边 际下滑,价(PPI)的负贡献基本持平前值,利(利润率同比)的拖累有所扩大。 分类型来看,11 月国企、股份制、民企、外资企业的利润增速呈不同程度的下 行。 2、利润率四因子拆分来看,主要是费用和投资收益拖累较大。11 月工业企业每 百元营收构成中,成本、费用、投资收益+营业外收支、利润分别为 84.9、8.6、 -0.8、5.7 元,与 2024 年同期相比分别变动+0.03、+0.36、-0.34、-0.73 元。11 月 费用率拖累幅度接近 10 月水平,额外部分在于"投资收益+营业外收支"转弱, 或源于期间权 ...