北交所策略专题报告 2025 年 09 月 14 日 北交所机构化浪潮引领生态重构，"920 代码"切换赋能市场活力 ——北交所策略专题报告 北交所研究团队 诸海滨（分析师） zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 专题：北交所指数创新高，交易生态向机构偏好加强 920 代码切换准备就绪 本周2025年9月8日，北证50与北证专精特新指数均创历史新高，分别为1647.01 点和 2806.39 点。本轮行情中，北证 50 与科创 50、创业板指等指数走势趋于一 致均在 2025 年 8-9 月创新高。究其原因是三者从都同为科技类板块驱动特征， 近期 AI、机器人，固态电池以及新能源板等板块轮动，拉动了相关指数上涨。 本轮（2025 年 8 月 1 日-2025 年 9 月 12 日）指数上涨中，北交所与以往不同的 是大市值板块涨幅高于小市值板块，20 亿以下、20-30 亿、30-50 亿、50-100 亿、 100 亿以上涨幅均值分别为 4.12%、4.44%、8.48%、15.61%、18.75%。机构较偏 好的大市值公司整体涨幅更大，也成为推动了北证指数创出新高重要 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant recovery in the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 31.5% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 34.0% as of September 12, 2025, driven by capital inflows and improved market sentiment [13][14][17] - The average daily trading volume in the Hong Kong stock market reached HKD 249.4 billion in September 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of nearly 93% [13][14] - Cumulative net inflows from southbound funds have surpassed HKD 1 trillion since the establishment of the Stock Connect, marking a historical high [17][18] Group 2 - The report indicates that the top three brokerage firms account for 54.8% of the total market value held in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, demonstrating a concentration of assets among major players [22][24] - A negative correlation exists between the market value held by brokerage firms and their turnover rates, with larger firms generally exhibiting lower turnover rates compared to smaller firms [22][24] - The report identifies several outstanding brokerage firms, including辉立证券 (Futu Securities) and沪市港股通 (Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect), which have achieved high excess Sharpe ratios, indicating superior performance [29][33] Group 3 - The report presents a quantitative model that optimizes the selection of top-performing brokers and stocks, achieving an annualized excess return of 16.5% and a maximum drawdown of -15.2% [5][28] - The performance of the selected brokers and stocks is notably higher during bull markets, suggesting that the model is effective in capturing market upswings [5][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of utilizing detailed data from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's CCASS system to gain insights into market dynamics and investor behavior [20][22]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the financial management scale is expected to benefit, and there may be changes in investment fund preferences due to new regulations on fund sales [3] - The trend of deposit non-bankization continues, with loan issuance potentially prioritizing price over volume [4] - The report highlights a decrease in both corporate and personal loans in August, with a notable decline in short-term and medium-to-long-term loans [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Data - In August, M1 and M2 year-on-year growth rates were 6.00% (up 0.4 percentage points month-on-month) and 8.80% (unchanged month-on-month), respectively [4] - The total social financing (社融) increased by 2.57 trillion yuan in August, a year-on-year decrease of 463 billion yuan, with a stock growth rate of 8.8% (down 0.2 percentage points month-on-month) [4] - The new RMB loans amounted to 590 billion yuan in August, a year-on-year decrease of 310 billion yuan [5] Loan Analysis - Corporate loans showed a decline, with medium-to-long-term loans decreasing by 20 billion yuan year-on-year, while short-term loans increased by 70 billion yuan, marking the first positive growth in five years for corporate short-term loans [6] - Residential loans also decreased, with medium-to-long-term loans adding only 20 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 100 billion yuan [6] Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates a recovery in credit rhythm in September, with potential short-term loan growth for enterprises [7] - Recommended bank stocks include Agricultural Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, CITIC Bank, Industrial Bank, Beijing Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Hangzhou Bank, Chengdu Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The white liquor market is gradually stabilizing, with health and nutrition creating a second growth curve for Ximai. The food and beverage index increased by 1.1% from September 8 to September 12, ranking 17th among 28 sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.3 percentage points. The sub-industries of meat products (+3.0%), white liquor (+1.7%), and pre-processed foods (+0.4%) performed relatively well. The white liquor sector is currently under demand pressure, with slight price declines for Feitian Moutai, indicating terminal demand stress. However, there are signs of improvement in terminal sales for Moutai since the end of August, suggesting that the bottom for the white liquor market is approaching. It is expected that the economic activity will increase with the implementation of large-scale infrastructure projects, leading to a stable upward trend in the white liquor market [4][11][12]. Summary by Sections Weekly Viewpoints - The white liquor market is stabilizing, and health products are becoming a potential growth area for Ximai. The food and beverage index's performance is lagging behind the market, with specific sub-industries showing better results [4][11]. Market Performance - The food and beverage index rose by 1.1%, ranking 17th out of 28 sectors, and underperformed the CSI 300 by about 0.3 percentage points. Meat products, white liquor, and pre-processed foods led the sub-industry performance [11][13]. Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices are declining, with full-fat milk powder auction prices down by 5.6% month-on-month but up by 12.2% year-on-year. Domestic fresh milk prices are also showing a downward trend [18][21]. Liquor Industry News - The liquor industry is seeing new product launches to adapt to market changes, with companies like Wuliangye and Zhenjiu introducing new products targeting younger consumers. The market is expected to recover as risks are released and new products are introduced [4][39]. Recommended Portfolio - The recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Wancheng Group, and Bairun Shares, with each company showing potential for growth despite current market pressures [5][43].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The domestic AI computing power is entering a golden development period, driven by continuous high growth in capital expenditure from internet companies like Alibaba and Tencent. In Q2 2025, Alibaba Cloud reported revenue of 33.398 billion yuan, achieving a 26% year-on-year growth, while Tencent's financial technology and enterprise services revenue reached 55.536 billion yuan, with a capital expenditure increase of 119% [5][12] - Domestic AI chip manufacturers such as Cambricon, Haiguang Information, and Chipone are rapidly rising, with significant performance and order growth. Chipone reported an order backlog of 3.025 billion yuan, with new orders in Q3 2025 increasing by 85.88% year-on-year, and AI-related orders accounting for about 64% [6][13] - Baidu and Alibaba are gradually applying their self-developed chips for AI model training, partially replacing foreign products. Baidu's Kunlun chip has shown strong performance in procurement projects, winning significant market shares [7][14] Summary by Sections Section 1: Industry Overview - The domestic AI computing power is experiencing a significant growth phase, with major internet companies increasing their capital expenditures substantially [5][12] Section 2: Company Dynamics - Companies like Cambricon and Haiguang Information are showing impressive performance and order growth, indicating a strong demand for domestic AI computing power [6][13] - Baidu and Alibaba are making strides in utilizing their proprietary chips for AI applications, enhancing their competitive edge in the market [7][14] Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report highly recommends investing in companies such as Haiguang Information, Zhongke Shuguang, and Inspur Information, which are expected to benefit from the growing demand for domestic AI computing power [8][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The biotech sector in China is experiencing stable revenue growth, with a significant reduction in net losses. In the first half of 2025, 32 Chinese biotech companies achieved revenue of 46.356 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.97%. Leading biotech firms have diversified product lines and international expansion, while some smaller companies are rapidly growing due to their core products [6][16] - There is a notable trend of Chinese innovative drug assets entering global markets, with the total amount of business development (BD) transactions reaching new records. The upfront payments and total transaction amounts for Chinese innovative drug assets have surged from 8.7/99.4 billion USD in 2020 to 49.4/561.2 billion USD in 2024. In the first half of 2025, the total transaction amount reached 63.55 billion USD, surpassing the total for 2024 and accounting for approximately 40% of global license-out transactions [7][24] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in seven major innovative drug sectors over the next 6-12 months, including next-generation immuno-oncology, weight loss, and small nucleic acids, which are expected to see significant developments [9] Summary by Sections Biotech Revenue and Profitability - In the first half of 2025, the net loss of Chinese biotech companies narrowed significantly, with a total net loss of 1.755 billion yuan, a 50.34% reduction compared to the first half of 2024. Notably, companies like BeiGene turned a profit with a net income of 450 million yuan, marking its first profitable period [18][20] International Expansion of Chinese Innovative Drugs - The total amount of transactions involving multinational corporations (MNCs) purchasing Chinese assets has approached 100 billion USD from 2020 to the first half of 2025, with approximately 11 billion USD in upfront payments. Major companies like BMS, AZ, Merck, and Novartis have been particularly active in acquiring Chinese assets [8][27] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include major pharmaceutical and biotech companies such as Hengrui Medicine, Innovent Biologics, and others across various sectors including traditional Chinese medicine, raw materials, medical devices, and healthcare services [10]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The silicon photonics era is accelerating, with leading companies showcasing competitive advantages and numerous new technologies creating investment opportunities [5][12] - The communication industry is experiencing continuous upgrades, with the demand for AI computing driving growth in the optical communication sector [5][12] - The 26th China International Optoelectronic Exposition (CIOE 2025) highlighted the maturity and market focus on silicon photonics technology, which is becoming the mainstream solution for 1.6T high-speed optical modules [5][12] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Outlook - The report emphasizes the competitive advantages of leading companies in the silicon photonics era and the emergence of new technologies such as OCS, hollow-core fibers, thin-film lithium niobate, and CPO [12] - The 800G optical module has become mainstream, with 1.6T expected to ramp up production imminently [13][14] - The report identifies key investment targets including Zhongji Xuchuang, NewEase, and Tianfu Communication, with beneficiaries including Huagong Technology and Guangxun Technology [7][14] 2. Optical Modules - Zhongji Xuchuang has begun mass production of 1.6T optical modules and is developing 3.2T products, while NewEase has significantly ramped up its 1.6T module supply to overseas clients [13][14] - The report notes that 800G has become the mainstream technology, with many manufacturers actively preparing for 3.2T technology [14] 3. Silicon Photonics Technology - The report highlights the rapid development of silicon photonics technology, with increasing market attention and maturity for OCS, CPO, and thin-film lithium niobate technologies [19][20] - Companies like Huagong Technology are advancing their CPO technology, showcasing integrated chips with low power consumption and high bandwidth density [19][20] 4. Optical Chips - The demand for CW laser chips is increasing, with companies like Yuanjie Technology successfully mass-producing CW70mW laser chips [25] - Long光华芯 has released a 200mW Uncool CW DFB optical communication chip to support the silicon photonics integration needs of 800G and 1.6T optical modules [25] 5. Cables - The report notes the gradual advancement of optical and copper cable solutions, with hollow-core fibers gaining attention [27] - Long飞公司 demonstrated a 100km hollow-core fiber link with a low attenuation of 0.089dB/km [27] 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on seven key industry directions for investment, including network equipment, AIDC data center construction, IT equipment, computing power leasing, cloud computing platforms, AI applications, and satellite internet & 6G [31][32] - Recommended targets for optical modules and devices include Zhongji Xuchuang, NewEase, and Tianfu Communication, with beneficiaries such as Yuanjie Technology and Huagong Technology [31][32]

行 业 研 究 通信 2025 年 09 月 12 日 投资评级：看好（维持） ——行业点评报告 蒋颖（分析师） 雷星宇（联系人） jiangying@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790523120003 世纪互联获 40MW 新订单，国产芯片成为增长引擎之一 2025 年 9 月 11 日，世纪互联发布公告，已从一家领先互联网公司获得 40MW 的 批发订单，位于大北京地区中固安 IDC 园区，公司将分阶段交付订单容量，主 要提供定制化服务，为客户核心业务部署国产芯片，公司表示国产芯片将成为公 司 IDC 业务未来关键的增长引擎。我们认为随着国产芯片供给逐步提升，国产 芯片能耗或更高，对于 AIDC 需求或持续提升，AIDC 订单或将持续释放。 阿里开源新模型 Qwen3-Next，AI 持续赋能公司业务提升 9 月 12 日，阿里开源新架构模型 Qwen3-Next-80B-A3B，Qwen3-Next 是一个混 合专家模型总参数 800 亿，仅激活 30 亿，在混合注意力机制、高稀疏性 MoE 结 构、训练稳定性等方面进行多项改进，训练成本较 Qwen3-32B 降低 90%，但推 理效率却提升 1 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The release of the Rubin CPX inference chip by Nvidia emphasizes cost-effectiveness and is designed specifically for large-scale context AI models, providing 20 PFLOPS of computing power with a memory bandwidth of 2TB/s, significantly reducing memory costs by over 50% by switching from HBM to GDDR7 [5][6] - The introduction of the Rubin CPX chip expands the VR200 server architecture into three versions, which is expected to create new opportunities in the supply chain, particularly increasing demand for PCB and copper cable connectors due to the complexity of interconnections [6][7] Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the industry, indicating expectations for the industry to outperform the overall market [2] Nvidia Rubin CPX Chip - The Rubin CPX chip is designed for two critical stages of AI inference: Prefill and Decode, with a focus on maximizing computational throughput while minimizing memory bandwidth waste [5] - The chip features a design that prioritizes computational FLOPS over memory bandwidth, making it suitable for high-demand AI applications [5] Supply Chain Opportunities - The new architecture introduced by the Rubin CPX chip is anticipated to generate additional demand in the supply chain, particularly for PCB and copper cable connectors, as the complexity of interconnections increases [6][7] - Beneficiary companies in the PCB segment include Huadian Co., Shenghong Technology, and others, while copper cable connector beneficiaries include Huafeng Technology and others [7]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Chip Return Feature **Model Construction Idea**: The chip structure estimates the average holding cost of investors at different price levels, and the chip return measures the profitability of the current price relative to historical chip costs. It reflects the market's profit-making effect, which exhibits momentum effects in strong markets and reversal effects in weak markets[24] **Model Construction Process**: The chip return is calculated as the return rate of the current price relative to the historical chip cost. The detailed methodology is elaborated in the research team's report "Fusion of Momentum and Reversal from the Perspective of Chip Structure"[24] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the market's profit-making effect and provides insights into momentum and reversal dynamics[24] Model Backtesting Results - **Chip Return Feature**: Current profit-making effect of the solid-state battery index is 11.11%[5][25][26]