2025 年 4 月 PMI 点评 4 月 PMI：盘点冲击信号 2025 年 04 月 30 日 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：zhongyumei@mszq.com 与此同时，4 月进口也受到较大冲击。4 月 PMI 进口指数环比降幅达 4.1pct，这 一降幅为 2020 年 5 月以来的最大降幅，同时也超过了"贸易冲突 1.0"时期 2.6pct 的最大降幅。 ➢ 维度二（间接影响）：供需两端同步放缓。4 月代表内需的 PMI 新订单指数 为 49.2%（环比-2.6pct），代表生产的 PMI 生产指数为 49.8%（环比-2.8pct）。 两个指标同时降至荣枯线之下，成为 4 月制造业 PMI 的两大拖累项，外部风险 的加剧对国内产需也造成一定负面影响。 ➢ 维度三（企业行为影响）：主动去库后的价格下跌。随着需求的走弱，企业 面对未来不确定性，更倾向于通过降价等方式加快对库存的"清理"，4 月 PMI 产成品库存指数下降 0.7pct 至 47.3%、同时 PMI 生产经营预期指数下降 1.7pct 均佐证了这一点。外部冲击下企业的主动去库行为导致 4 月 PMI 出厂价格指数 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 14.25 yuan [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in profitability despite a decrease in revenue for 2024, with a net profit of 3.90 billion yuan, up 163.56% year-on-year [3]. - The mining operations have resumed normal production, leading to a substantial increase in profit margins due to rising commodity prices [2][4]. - The company is expected to see a steady growth in net profit from 5.49 billion yuan in 2025 to 12.93 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 20.13 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.66% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.90 billion yuan, an increase of 163.56% [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw an operating income of 3.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.92% [3]. - The average price of silver in 2024 was 28 USD/ounce, up 21.0% year-on-year, while the first quarter of 2025 saw an average price of 31.7 USD/ounce, up 39.1% [4]. Production and Cost Analysis - The company produced 138.6 tons of silver in 2024, a slight decrease of 4.48% year-on-year, primarily due to technical upgrades at the Jinshan Mining [4]. - The cost per ton for silver-lead concentrate was 9,569 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.2% [4]. - The gross profit margin for silver ingots was 51.45%, an increase of 3.48 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Future Outlook - The company is progressing well with new mining projects, including the Caiyuanzi gold mine, which is expected to commence production soon [5]. - Forecasts indicate that the company will achieve net profits of 5.49 billion yuan in 2025, 8.01 billion yuan in 2026, and 12.93 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 12, and 8 [6][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 14.25 yuan [7]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in profitability despite a decrease in revenue for 2024, with a net profit of 3.90 billion yuan, up 163.56% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company is expected to see a steady increase in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with projections of 5.49 billion yuan, 8.01 billion yuan, and 12.93 billion yuan respectively [5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 20.13 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.66% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.90 billion yuan, an increase of 163.56% [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw an operating income of 3.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.92% [3]. Production and Pricing - The company produced 138.6 tons of silver in 2024, a slight decrease of 4.48% year-on-year, while the average price of silver rose by 21.0% to 28 USD per ounce [4]. - The average price of lead and zinc also increased by 10.3% and 9.8% respectively in 2024 [4]. Cost and Profitability - The cost per ton of silver-lead concentrate was 9,569 yuan, an increase of 34.2% year-on-year, while the gross profit margin for silver ingots was 51.45%, up 3.48 percentage points [4]. - The overall gross profit margin for the company in 2024 was 48.49%, an increase of 16.53 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Future Prospects - New mining projects are progressing well, with the Caizhongzi gold mine expected to commence production soon, and other projects are in various stages of development [5]. - The company forecasts a growth in operating income from 25.64 billion yuan in 2025 to 44.19 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profit growth rates of 40.9%, 45.9%, and 61.3% [6][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 5.76 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.4 billion yuan, up 48.9% year-on-year [3]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.3 billion yuan, a decline of 14.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 290 million yuan, down 18.3% year-on-year [3][5]. - The strong performance in 2024 was driven by robust growth in the main business, particularly in pharmaceutical intermediates, with a revenue of 5.4 billion yuan, up 19.5% year-on-year [4]. - The company is expected to see improvements in performance throughout 2025, with a focus on maintaining price stability in key products and leveraging AI technology for cost reduction [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 5.76 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.4 billion yuan, and a gross margin of 36.39% [7][11]. - The forecast for 2025 indicates a slight revenue increase to 5.88 billion yuan, with net profit expected to remain stable at 1.41 billion yuan [7][11]. Business Segments - The pharmaceutical intermediates segment showed strong growth, with key products like penicillin intermediates and cephalosporin intermediates experiencing significant revenue increases [4]. - The company is expanding its synthetic biology segment, with several products entering production, indicating potential for future growth [6]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to maintain stable profit levels from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 1.41 billion yuan in 2025 and gradually increasing to 1.46 billion yuan by 2027 [6][7]. - The anticipated PE ratios for the forecasted years are 19 for 2025 and 18 for 2026 and 2027, reflecting a stable valuation outlook [7][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Nuclear Power (601985.SH) with a target price of 9.33 CNY, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [6][12]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is reported at 77.272 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 3.09%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.38% to 8.777 billion CNY. The basic earnings per share (EPS) is 0.463 CNY [1][5]. - The increase in income tax expenses significantly impacted the Q4 2024 performance, while the decline in profits from the renewable energy sector affected the growth rate in Q1 2025 [2]. - The company achieved a total power generation of 2,163.49 billion kWh in 2024, with nuclear power generation at 1,831.22 billion kWh, a decrease of 1.80%. However, renewable energy generation saw substantial growth, with solar power increasing by 44.81% and wind power by 39.02% [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 20.273 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, and a net profit of 3.137 billion CNY, up 2.55% [1][2]. - The company plans to achieve a total power generation target of 2,370 billion kWh in 2025, with nuclear power expected to contribute 1,954 billion kWh, a 6.7% increase year-on-year [3]. Growth Potential - The company has 26 operational nuclear units with a total installed capacity of 24.962 million kW and 17 units under construction or awaiting approval, totaling 19.429 million kW. The approval of additional projects is expected to further enhance capacity [4]. - The dividend payout ratio reached a record high of 41.8% in 2024, with potential for future increases to 80% during mature phases without significant capital expenditures [4]. Profit Forecast - The profit forecasts for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 10.328 billion CNY, 11.136 billion CNY, and 12.376 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.50 CNY, 0.54 CNY, and 0.60 CNY [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Nuclear Power (601985.SH) with a target price based on a PE ratio of 19/17/16 for the years 2025/2026/2027 respectively [6][4]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is reported at 77.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.09%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.38% to 8.78 billion yuan. The basic earnings per share (EPS) is 0.463 yuan [1][4]. - The increase in income tax expenses significantly impacted the Q4 2024 performance, while the decline in profits from the new energy sector affected the growth rate in Q1 2025 [2][4]. - The company achieved a total power generation of 216.35 billion kWh in 2024, with nuclear power generation at 183.12 billion kWh, a decrease of 1.80%. However, renewable energy saw significant growth, with solar power generation increasing by 44.81% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 20.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, and a net profit of 3.14 billion yuan, up 2.55% [1][2]. - The total power generation for Q1 2025 was 59.74 billion kWh, a 16.93% increase year-on-year, with nuclear power contributing 49.48 billion kWh, a 13.30% increase [3][4]. Growth Prospects - The company plans to achieve a total power generation target of 237 billion kWh for 2025, with nuclear power expected to generate 195.4 billion kWh, a 6.7% increase year-on-year [3][4]. - The company has 26 operational nuclear units with a capacity of 24.96 million kW and 17 units under construction or awaiting approval, with a total capacity of 19.43 million kW [4]. Dividend Policy - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 reached a record high of 41.8%, with potential increases in future payout ratios as the company matures and capital expenditures decrease [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 3.84 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 270 million yuan, up 266.9% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s UHT cream product line generated over 500 million yuan in sales in 2024, contributing to a 61.8% year-on-year growth in cream product revenue [2]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 31.5%, with a slight decrease to 30.0% in Q1 2025 due to rising raw material prices and changes in product and channel mix [3]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 4.45 billion yuan, 5.02 billion yuan, and 5.58 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 350 million yuan, 390 million yuan, and 460 million yuan [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 3.84 billion yuan, with a net profit of 270 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 250 million yuan [1]. - For Q4 2024, the revenue was 1.12 billion yuan, with a net profit of 70 million yuan, and for Q1 2025, the revenue was 1.05 billion yuan, with a net profit of 90 million yuan [1]. Product Performance - The revenue from frozen baking and baking ingredients in 2024 was 2.13 billion yuan and 1.67 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year change of -3.5% and +32.7%, respectively [2]. - The cream product line saw a significant increase in sales, with UHT cream contributing to a 61.8% growth in cream product revenue in 2024 [2]. Cost Management - The company successfully reduced its sales expense ratio to 12.1% in 2024, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, due to strict budget management [3]. - The management expense ratio also decreased to 6.7%, down 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to reduced share-based payment expenses [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in cream and supermarket new products, with revenue projections of 4.45 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 16.1% year-on-year increase [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company demonstrated resilience as a leading Anhui liquor brand, achieving a revenue of 23.578 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.517 billion yuan for 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 16.41% and 20.22% respectively, despite not meeting the annual revenue target of 24.45 billion yuan [2][3]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 26 billion yuan, 28.737 billion yuan, and 31.841 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10.3% to 10.8% [7][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.509 billion yuan and a net profit of 771 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.85% and a slight decline in net profit of 0.74% [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.146 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.330 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.38% and 12.78% respectively [2]. - The company’s dividend payout ratio reached 57.49% in 2024, up by 5.66 percentage points from the previous year, corresponding to a dividend yield of 3.51% [2]. Product Performance - The main liquor business generated a revenue of 22.865 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 81.71%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.93 percentage points [3][5]. - The "Year Original" product line led the revenue growth with 18.086 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.31%, driven by an 11.99% increase in volume and a 4.75% increase in price [5]. Regional and Channel Performance - Revenue from different regions showed growth, with North China, Central China, South China, and international markets achieving revenues of 1.979 billion yuan, 20.151 billion yuan, 1.426 billion yuan, and 22 million yuan respectively [5]. - Online and offline channels reported revenues of 772 million yuan and 22.806 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 5.81% and 16.81% respectively [5]. Profitability and Efficiency - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 79.90%, with a slight increase in the fourth quarter to 80.74% [6]. - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 23.40%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.74 percentage points [6][9]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its strong performance with a projected net profit of 6.165 billion yuan in 2025, growing at a rate of 11.7% [8][9]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 14 for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 8.96 yuan [7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.541 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.52%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 364 million yuan, a decrease of 36.87% [3]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 889 million yuan, up 24.44% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 56.39% to 47 million yuan [3]. - The company has significantly increased its production and sales of separator materials, with production reaching 4.05 billion square meters, a 56.25% increase year-on-year, and sales reaching 3.99 billion square meters, a 57.64% increase [4]. - The company is expanding into the semiconductor field, signing a strategic cooperation framework agreement with RS Technologies to enhance its position in the materials sector [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of 3.541 billion yuan and a net profit of 364 million yuan, with a projected revenue growth of 26.1% in 2025, reaching 4.465 billion yuan [6][10]. - The net profit is expected to recover to 467 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 28.4% [6][10]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.27 yuan in 2024 to 0.35 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio decreasing from 33 to 26 [6][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has established strong partnerships with major domestic and international battery manufacturers, including CATL and LG Chem, enhancing its market presence [4]. - The company is focusing on technological upgrades and product innovation, particularly in functional films and high-safety separators, to maintain its competitive edge [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company has transformed into a new leader in offline public examination training, achieving significant revenue growth and profitability improvements. In 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.833 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1046.34%, and a net profit of 53 million yuan, marking a return to profitability. For Q1 2025, revenue reached 827 million yuan, up 18.91% year-on-year, with a net profit of 121 million yuan, an increase of 67.38% [1][2]. - The company's strategic shift towards vocational education, particularly in civil service and public institution exam training, has positioned it as a new leader in the public examination sector. The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 53.48% and 61.36%, respectively, while the net margin improved to 1.87% and 14.69% [1][2]. - The company has implemented a stock incentive plan aimed at motivating key employees, with performance targets set for net profit, which are expected to drive further growth [3]. Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts revenue growth from 2.833 billion yuan in 2024 to 4.784 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 1046.34%, 17.5%, 25.0%, and 15.0% for the respective years [4][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 53 million yuan in 2024 to 556 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 157.6%, 509.5%, 25.6%, and 37.0% [4][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 0.38 yuan in 2024 to 3.95 yuan in 2027, with dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratios decreasing from 250 to 24 over the same period [4][8].