证券研究报告 投顾组合再平衡，均衡风格受青睐 ——2025年3月基金投顾投端跟踪报告 证券分析师 | 郭子睿 | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060520070003 | | --- | --- | | 陈 瑶 | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524120003 | | 研究助理 | | | 胡心怡 | 一般从业资格编号：S1060124030069 | | 任书康 | 一般从业资格编号：S1060123050035 | | 高 越 | 一般从业资格编号：S1060124070014 | 2025年4月8日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 报告摘要 2 基金投顾组合总体情况：1）截至2025年3月末，上线天天基金APP的基金投顾组合共423只，相比上月末增加4只组合；新增股债中枢型组合3只， 赛道型中的科技组合1只。2）截至2025年3月末，股债中枢型、赛道型、区域型投顾组合分别为373只、30只和20只。 投顾组合业绩表现跟踪：1）股债中枢型：过去一年，各类中枢型组合的收益率中位数均跑赢同类型FOF产品。月内，进取型、平衡型、稳健型组 合的收益率中位数均跑赢同类型FOF产品。与基准业绩比较，月内进取型、平衡型、稳健型、 ...

证券研究报告 美国关税政策未包含药品，继续看 好创新药及消费复苏相关赛道 生物医药行业强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所生物医药团队 分析师： 叶寅投资咨询资格编号:S1060514100001邮箱：YEYIN757@PINGAN.COM.CN 倪亦道投资咨询资格编号:S1060518070001邮箱：NIYIDAO242@PINGAN.COM.CN 韩盟盟投资咨询资格编号:S1060519060002邮箱：HANMENGMENG005@PINGAN.COM.CN 裴晓鹏投资咨询资格编号:S1060523090002邮箱：PEIXIAOPENG719@PINGAN.COM.CN 何敏秀投资咨询资格编号:S1060524030001邮箱：HEMINXIU894@PINGAN.COM.CN 王钰畅投资咨询资格编号:S1060524090001邮箱：WANGYUCHANG804@PINGAN.COM.CN 曹艳凯投资咨询资格编号:S1060524120001邮箱：CAOYANKAI947@PINGAN.COM.CN 研究助理：臧文清一般证券从业资格编号:S1060123050058邮箱：ZANGWENQING222@ ...

其 他 报 告 2025年04月08日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3097 | -7.34 | -0.28 | | 深证成份指数 | 9364 | -9.66 | -2.28 | | 沪深300指数 | 3589 | -7.05 | -1.37 | | 创业板指数 | 1807 | -12.50 | -2.95 | | 上证国债指数 | 224 | 0.27 | 0.34 | | 上证基金指数 | 6417 | -7.26 | -1.07 | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | 海外市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 中国香港恒生指数 | 19828 | -13.22 | -2.46 | | 中国香港国企指数 | 7263 | -13.75 | -2.17 | | 中国台湾加权指数 | 19232 | -9.70 | -1.41 | | 道琼斯指数 | 37966 | - ...

Group 1: Fiscal Policy Initiatives - Since the beginning of 2025, government debt net financing reached CNY 2.39 trillion, which is CNY 1.49 trillion higher than the same period in 2024[10] - Major project investments in January-February 2025 increased by nearly 40% year-on-year, indicating a strong start for fiscal spending[10] - Infrastructure investment growth in January-February 2025 improved by 2.5 percentage points to 10% compared to December 2024[10] Group 2: Monetary Policy Challenges - The actual loan interest rate remains high at 4%, reflecting ongoing low price levels that necessitate proactive monetary policy[21] - The divergence between interbank funding rates and policy rates has widened, leading to increased funding costs for commercial banks, which hampers the reduction of financing costs for the real economy[15] - The central bank's gradual approach to rate cuts contrasts with historical precedents where more aggressive actions were taken to stabilize investment returns[30] Group 3: Economic Recovery and Interest Rate Adjustments - A significant reduction in interest rates is required to stimulate internal economic momentum, as current corporate investment returns have not stabilized[30] - If the government bond financing costs remain unchanged from last year, interest payments could increase by over CNY 190 billion, surpassing the savings from debt replacement[43] - The proportion of government debt interest payments to total fiscal revenue is projected to rise to 9.1% in 2025, up from 7.8% in 2024, indicating increasing fiscal pressure[43]

Core Views - The report maintains a positive outlook on the biopharmaceutical industry, expecting it to outperform the market due to minimal impact from recent U.S. tariff policies on drug sectors [4][5] - The report emphasizes continued optimism for innovative drugs and sectors related to consumer recovery, highlighting the resilience of the pharmaceutical sector amidst tariff changes [4][5] Industry Insights - The recent U.S. tariff policy has a limited effect on the pharmaceutical sector, with most drugs, including various chemical drugs, vaccines, and biological products, exempt from tariffs. Raw materials like vitamins and amino acids are also on the exemption list [4][27] - The report suggests that the innovative drug sector has shown significant growth, providing a selection of quality stocks based on criteria such as strong fundamentals, potential in research pipelines, and favorable cash positions [4][5] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on four main themes: "Innovation," "Going Global," "Equipment Upgrades," and "Consumer Recovery" [5] - **Innovation**: Invest in globally competitive innovative drugs and promising categories, with specific companies highlighted such as BeiGene and East China Pharmaceutical [5] - **Going Global**: Identify opportunities in overseas markets, with companies like Mindray Medical and Sinocare suggested for investment [5] - **Equipment Upgrades**: Expect support for medical equipment updates from government policies, with companies like Mindray Medical and United Imaging Healthcare recommended [5] - **Consumer Recovery**: Anticipate a rebound in sectors like ophthalmology and aesthetic medicine, with companies like Prue Eye Hospital and Tongce Medical highlighted [5] Key Companies to Watch - **Nocare Biopharma**: Expected to achieve revenue of 1.009 billion in 2024, with a 49% year-on-year growth in sales of its core product, Oubatinib [6] - **Sihuan Pharmaceutical**: Strong fundamentals with a stable performance, and a promising pipeline with multiple products expected to be approved between 2025 and 2027 [9] - **East China Pharmaceutical**: Anticipated growth driven by the commercialization of domestic nuclear medicine products and a robust R&D pipeline [10] - **China Biopharmaceutical**: Rapid revenue growth with an increasing proportion of innovative products, indicating potential for accelerated profit growth [11] - **Aier Eye Hospital**: Benefiting from growing demand in ophthalmology and favorable policies for private specialty hospitals, with significant expansion plans [21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit attributable to the parent company, with a non-recurring net profit of 1.943 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.48% [5][8] - The rise in tin prices has positively impacted the company's tin ingot business, with production increasing by 19.42% and sales by 20.41% in 2024 [8] - The company has improved its global market share in refined tin, achieving a domestic market share of 47.98% and a global market share of 25.03% in 2024 [8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 41.973 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.91%, and a net profit of 1.444 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.55% [5][7] - The average price of tin in 2024 was 248,300 yuan per ton, an increase of 16.9% year-on-year, contributing to a 34.11% increase in tin ingot revenue [8] - The company's projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 2.328 billion yuan, 2.589 billion yuan, and 2.796 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.8, 9.8, and 9.0 [9][8]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Horizon Robotics (9660.HK) [5]. Core Views - Horizon Robotics is positioned as a leading provider of intelligent driving solutions, leveraging its extensive mass production experience and innovative product offerings to capitalize on the growing demand in the automotive sector [5][8]. - The company is set to benefit from the upcoming series of new products, particularly the Journey 6 series, which is expected to enhance its market share and revenue growth significantly by 2025 [5][19]. - Strategic partnerships with major automotive manufacturers such as BYD, Volkswagen, and Li Auto are crucial for Horizon's growth, enabling it to expand its influence in both domestic and international markets [5][40][42]. Summary by Sections 1. Intelligent Driving Solutions Provider - Horizon Robotics, founded in 2015, focuses on intelligent driving solutions, integrating algorithms, dedicated software, and processing hardware to create a comprehensive product matrix [8][9]. - The company has shipped over 7 million units of its intelligent driving chips, showcasing its capability in mass production [5][8]. 2. Journey 6 and Full-Scene Intelligent Driving Solutions - The Journey 6 series, launched in April 2024, represents a significant upgrade in Horizon's product line, designed to meet diverse intelligent driving needs with a scalable architecture [19][21]. - The Journey 6 series offers a computing power range from 10 TOPS to 560 TOPS, catering to various levels of intelligent driving applications [21][22]. 3. Flexible Cooperation Model - Horizon employs a flexible cooperation model, including IP licensing, computing solutions, and joint development, to meet the diverse needs of its clients [5][36]. - The company has established significant partnerships with leading automotive manufacturers, enhancing its market presence and revenue potential [5][40][42]. 4. Industry Opportunities - The intelligent driving sector is poised for rapid growth, driven by initiatives from major players like BYD and Tesla, which are expected to accelerate the adoption of intelligent driving technologies [5][44]. - Horizon holds a leading market share of 33.97% in the domestic intelligent driving computing solutions market, positioning it well to capitalize on the industry's expansion [44]. 5. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Horizon's revenue is projected to grow significantly, with expected net profits of -2.2 billion, -1.4 billion, and 0.5 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][4]. - The report suggests that Horizon's innovative product cycle and favorable market conditions will enhance its profitability in the coming years [5][4].

美国 401(k)大量减持权益类资产 证券分析师 平安观点： 本期重点：美国 401(k)大量减持权益类资产 第一，经济预期恶化，美国 401(k)大量减持权益类资产。Alight 发布 3 月 401（k）观测报告，称出于对经济前景的担忧，3 月美国居民对其 401（k） 账户内的储蓄资金进行了大量交易，出售权益类资产、买入固定收益类资 产。根据 Alight 统计，3 月 401(k)资金交易规模占 401（k）账户规模的 0.34%，为 2020 年 10 月以来的最高水平。3 月中，近一半的交易日交易 水平超出历史正常水平。 有观点认为，在 4 月 4 日美国股市全面暴跌后，美国居民已经出现了对退 休储蓄缩水的恐慌。虽然当前多数居民仍处于观望状态，401（k）资产配 置整体稳定；但若特朗普全面关税政策不发生转向、经济衰退预期强化， 美国居民可能会进一步缩减权益类投资比例。 前瞻性产业研究 2025 年 4 月 7 日 养老金融双周报（2025.03.31-2025.04.06） 第二，英国可能允许适用养老金购买住房。英国金融行为监管局（FCA） 称，他们将在 6 月就"是否应允许将养老金储蓄用于首次购 ...

养老金融双周报（2025.03.31-2025.04.06） 美国 401(k)大量减持权益类资产 证券分析师 平安观点： 本期重点：美国 401(k)大量减持权益类资产 第一，经济预期恶化，美国 401(k)大量减持权益类资产。Alight 发布 3 月 401（k）观测报告，称出于对经济前景的担忧，3 月美国居民对其 401（k） 账户内的储蓄资金进行了大量交易，出售权益类资产、买入固定收益类资 产。根据 Alight 统计，3 月 401(k)资金交易规模占 401（k）账户规模的 0.34%，为 2020 年 10 月以来的最高水平。3 月中，近一半的交易日交易 水平超出历史正常水平。 前瞻性产业研究 2025 年 4 月 7 日 陈骁 投资咨询资格编号 S1060516070001 chenxiao397@pingan.com.cn 郝博韬 投资咨询资格编号 S1060521110001 haobotao973@pingan.com.cn 石艺 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070003 SHIYI262@pingan.com.cn 1）美共和党希望允许养老金投资加密货币 2）澳大利亚央行认为养 ...

Economic Policy - The US announced a "reciprocal tariff" policy on April 2, imposing a base tariff of 10% on all imports, with rates for 57 countries reaching 20-49%, significantly exceeding market expectations[2] - China responded on April 4 by imposing a 34% tariff on US goods, raising the total tariffs on China to 54% for the year, with cumulative tariffs estimated at 66.5%[2] - The GDPNow model predicts a Q1 2025 GDP annualized rate of -2.8%, with a gold-adjusted forecast of -0.8%[7] Market Reactions - Global stock markets suffered significant declines, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq down 9.1%, 7.9%, and 10.0% respectively following the tariff announcement[14] - US Treasury yields fell sharply, with the 10-year yield down 26 basis points to 4.01% and the 2-year yield down 21 basis points to 3.68%[19] - Oil prices dropped significantly, with Brent and WTI crude down 10.9% and 10.6% respectively, influenced by the tariff impacts and OPEC+ production increases[21] Employment and Inflation - The US added 228,000 non-farm jobs in March, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%[4] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% month-over-month, with a year-over-year growth of 3.8%, slightly below expectations[4] Currency Movements - The US dollar index fell by 1.07% to 102.92, with safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen gaining[23] - The euro appreciated by 1.26% against the dollar, while the British pound decreased by 0.29%[23]