Group 1: Market Sentiment Indicators - The market sentiment indicator is currently at 3.2, indicating a high level of market sentiment, which is a slight increase from 2.9 the previous week, with a neutral outlook in the short term [2][8] - The price-volume consistency score has rapidly declined, suggesting a decrease in market activity and participation, while the trading volatility among industries continues to decrease, indicating a slowdown in capital flow [2][10] - The total transaction volume for the entire A-share market has significantly decreased compared to the previous week, with the lowest daily transaction amount recorded at 23,483.59 billion RMB and a daily trading volume of 1,460.90 million shares [2][14] Group 2: Industry Trends and Performance - The industry trend has shown a rapid decline, with the PCR combined with the VIX indicator turning negative, indicating a decrease in hedging demand and potential accumulation of risks due to suppressed volatility [2][10] - The sectors with high capital congestion include comprehensive and electric equipment, which have seen significant price increases, while sectors like computer and electronics have high congestion but lower price increases [2][38] - The short-term trend scores for industries such as electric equipment, public utilities, and food and beverage are on the rise, with electric equipment achieving a short-term score of 100, indicating strong performance [2][31][32] Group 3: Investment Style and Strategy - The current model indicates a preference for large-cap growth styles, with a strong signal for large-cap stocks, while the short-term RSI for growth styles has significantly declined, suggesting a need for further monitoring [2][31][43] - The analysis of industry congestion indicates that low congestion sectors like defense, steel, and construction materials may present investment opportunities as risk appetite increases [2][38][39]

Economic Indicators - The US unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, marking three consecutive months of increases[3] - Non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000[3] - The probability of a US recession has increased, with the Federal Reserve's rate cut probability for September now at 100%[3] Market Performance - COMEX gold prices surged by 3.66% this week, leading global asset performance[3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield fell by 13 basis points to 4.10%[3] - The Chinese stock market showed resilience, with the ChiNext index rising by 2.7%[3] Fund Flows - Domestic capital inflow into the Chinese stock market reached $3.031 billion, while foreign capital outflow was $1.019 billion[3] - Global funds saw significant inflows into developed market equities, with US equities receiving $7.11 billion[3] Valuation Metrics - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the Shanghai Composite Index has risen to the 42nd percentile historically[3] - The S&P 500's risk-adjusted return percentile increased from 44% to 58%[3] Risk Sentiment - The options market indicates a belief in a solid market bottom for the CSI 300, with a decrease in put-call ratios suggesting improved sentiment[3] - The implied volatility for the CSI 300 has shown a consistent pattern, indicating limited downside risk but cautious optimism for upward movement[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the gaming sector, indicating a favorable investment environment for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The gaming industry is expected to maintain high prosperity in the second half of the year, with several companies exceeding expectations in their mid-year reports. The valuation for many companies is projected to shift to a PE of approximately 15x for the next year [2]. - The report emphasizes the need to view the sustainability of the gaming market from a long-term perspective, considering factors such as the demand from younger consumers, the impact of AI on new gameplay, and the competitive landscape focusing on product differentiation rather than price competition [2]. - AI applications are anticipated to drive significant growth in cloud computing revenues, with notable increases in revenue reported by major players like Alibaba Cloud and Kingsoft Cloud [2]. - The film industry is showing signs of recovery with the upcoming National Day film season, and there is a focus on policy changes that could benefit long-form video content and series [2]. Summary by Sections Gaming Sector - Mid-year reports from several companies have exceeded expectations, and the second half is expected to remain prosperous. The focus is on long-term sustainability driven by younger consumers and AI innovations [2]. - Key recommended companies include Giant Network, ST Huatuo, and Xindong Company, among others, with a focus on their unique offerings and market strategies [2]. AI Applications - The report argues that the market is overly pessimistic about the impact of large models on software, highlighting that AI's value comes from specialized data and long-term know-how [2]. - Companies like Meitu are positioned well in niche markets, leveraging strong operational capabilities to adapt to changing consumer aesthetics [2]. Cloud Computing - Alibaba Cloud reported a revenue of 33.4 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 26%, marking a historical high. AI-related products have shown triple-digit growth for eight consecutive quarters [2]. Film and Television - The report notes a policy bottom for long-form video content, with upcoming films expected to drive box office growth. The first eight months of 2025 saw a box office of 39.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18% [2]. - Companies to watch include Mango Super Media, Yuewen Group, and Wanda Film, with a focus on their upcoming projects and market positioning [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for international cosmetics and medical beauty companies [2]. Core Insights - The global beauty market is projected to grow at a rate of 4.5% in 2024, down from 8% in 2023, indicating a slowdown in growth [3][12]. - The European market outperformed the global average with a year-on-year growth of 7.5%, while the North Asia market saw a decline of 2% [3][12]. - Major international brands are facing challenges in the Chinese market, with a significant reliance on tourism retail channels, which have been underperforming [3][19]. - L'Oréal reported a 3% recovery in its Chinese market in Q2, while Estee Lauder and Shiseido continue to struggle with declining revenues [3][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Beauty Market Trends - The beauty market has shown a stable trend in 2024, with regional disparities in performance. The European market is robust, while North Asia is lagging [3][12]. - The overall performance of international groups is declining, with L'Oréal's growth slowing down [3][15]. 2. L'Oréal Performance - L'Oréal achieved a 3% growth in its Chinese market in Q2, despite ongoing challenges in tourism retail [3][19]. - The company's overall revenue growth for 25H1 was 1.6%, with a notable increase in operating profit by 3.1% [26][29]. 3. Estee Lauder Performance - Estee Lauder's revenue declined by 10.9% in 25H1, with the company facing significant operational challenges [3][44]. - The company has been undergoing a strategic restructuring to address its declining performance [44][48]. 4. Shiseido Performance - Shiseido's revenue fell by 7.6% in 25H1, with a focus on its ELIXIR brand for growth [3][44]. - The company is experiencing a K-shaped recovery, with some brands performing well while others struggle [3][44]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth potential, such as Up Beauty and Maogeping, as well as established brands like Proya and Marubi [4][5]. - In the medical beauty sector, recommendations include Aimeike and Langzi [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the cosmetics and medical beauty sector, highlighting strong growth potential and investment opportunities in the industry [14][19]. Core Insights - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector has shown resilience, outperforming the market during the week of August 29 to September 5, 2025, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index declining only 0.8% [3][4]. - The transition to autumn skincare marks the beginning of a consumption peak for the sector, with significant sales events such as the Autumn Beauty Consumption Festival and Double 11 approaching, creating new investment opportunities [9][10]. - Major companies in the sector are optimistic about their performance in the second half of 2025, as indicated by a recent conference involving over ten beauty care companies [9]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The Shenwan Cosmetics Index remained stable, outperforming the Shenwan A Index by 1.4 percentage points, while the Shenwan Personal Care Index fell by 1.8%, underperforming the Shenwan A Index by 0.3 percentage points [3][4]. Key Company Reviews - **Mao Geping (1318HK)**: Reported a revenue of 2.59 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 31%, with a net profit of 670 million yuan, up 36%. The color cosmetics segment saw a revenue of 1.42 billion yuan, while skincare generated 1.09 billion yuan, reflecting strong brand momentum [10][11]. - **Shangmei Co. (02145HK)**: Achieved a revenue of 4.108 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 17.3% increase, with a net profit of 556 million yuan, up 34.7%. The main brand, Han Shu, contributed significantly to growth, with a revenue of 3.344 billion yuan [16][17]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Shangmei Co., Porlaia, and Shanghai Jahwa, which have strong brand matrices and relatively low PE multiples. Other notable mentions are Marubi Biological and Mao Geping, which are positioned well to benefit from the rise of domestic beauty brands [10][19]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong R&D capabilities and product pipelines, particularly in the upstream medical beauty segment, with a recommendation for Aimeike [10][19]. Market Trends - The report notes a significant increase in online sales, with H1 2025 online revenue for Mao Geping reaching 1.297 billion yuan, a 39% year-on-year increase, marking a shift in consumer purchasing behavior towards online platforms [12][18]. - The overall cosmetics retail market showed a 4.5% growth in July 2025, indicating a robust recovery in consumer spending [23][26]. Strategic Developments - Porlaia's investment in Huazhi Xiao reflects a strategic move to enhance its multi-brand strategy and capitalize on the influence of Gen Z consumers [28]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape, noting that domestic brands are increasingly capturing market share, with a notable shift in consumer perception from "value for money" to "quality choice" [32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, particularly highlighting the performance of the gold sector [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the gold sector is expected to benefit from rising interest rate cut expectations, with a long-term trend of central bank gold purchases anticipated due to low current gold reserves in China [4][23]. - The industrial metals segment shows a mixed performance, with copper prices expected to remain strong due to supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors like home appliances and power grid investments [4][36]. - The aluminum market is projected to experience a long-term upward trend in prices, supported by tightening supply-demand dynamics and potential policy support [4][49]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.18%, while the non-ferrous metals index rose by 2.12%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite by 2.93 percentage points [5][11]. - Precious metals saw a significant increase, with gold prices rising by 3.52% and silver by 1.87% [4][17]. - Year-to-date performance shows precious metals up by 60.89%, aluminum by 23.36%, and copper by 60.11% [11][12]. Price Changes and Key Company Valuations - The report details price changes for various metals, with copper at $9,898 per ton, aluminum at $2,601 per ton, and gold at $3,640 per ounce [17][20]. - Key companies in the sector include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Huayou Cobalt, with respective valuations and earnings projections provided [20][21]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Copper supply is tightening, with domestic social inventory increasing to 141,000 tons, while demand remains robust with operating rates for copper products showing slight increases [36][49]. - The aluminum sector is experiencing a rise in downstream processing rates, with a current operating rate of 61.70% [49][51]. - Steel production is affected by short-term production limits in Hebei, leading to a decrease in output and an increase in steel prices [4][73].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the defense and military industry, suggesting an increase in focus on military investments in September [3][5]. Core Insights - The defense and military sector is expected to see favorable support from its fundamentals, with anticipated overperformance in Q3 reports due to a surge in military orders since Q1 [5]. - The industry is entering a significant growth cycle with the "14th Five-Year Plan" and increasing military trade expectations, which are projected to catalyze market performance [5]. - The report highlights a strong correlation between global geopolitical uncertainties and the rising demand for military trade, indicating a robust future for China's military exports [5]. - Key investment targets include high-end combat capabilities and new technology in military equipment, with a focus on unmanned and informationized systems [5]. Market Review - Last week, the Shenwan Defense and Military Index fell by 10.25%, while the CSI Military Leaders Index dropped by 11.4%, underperforming the broader market indices [3][6]. - The report notes that the military sector's performance ranked last among 31 Shenwan primary industry sectors [6]. - Individual stock performance varied significantly, with top gainers including Chunxing Precision (up 22.91%) and Yingliu Co. (up 11.48%), while the largest losers included Inner Mongolia First Machinery (down 23.76%) and Chengfei Integration (down 22.71%) [12][13]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan military sector is 84.59, indicating it is in the upper range historically, with a valuation percentile of 71.06% since January 2014 [13][14]. - The aerospace and aviation equipment sectors are noted to be at relatively high valuation levels since 2020 [19]. Key Valuation Targets - The report lists several key companies with their projected net profits and PE ratios for the upcoming years, indicating a focus on high-growth potential within the military sector [21]. - Notable companies include AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (market cap of 1,548 billion, PE of 46) and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft (market cap of 702.2 billion, PE of 69) [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's revenue and profit recovery is increasingly certain, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 7.0% in the first half of 2025 and a net profit increase of 18.7% [7] - The company has a strong technical and research capability, supported by national-level laboratories and recognized engineering teams, which enhances its competitive edge in major infrastructure projects [7] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 223 million, 287 million, and 344 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to PE valuations of 21, 16, and 13 times [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to be 3,911 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.0% [6] - The company’s net profit for 2025 is estimated at 223 million yuan, reflecting a significant recovery from a previous decline [6] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 31.7% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 5.1% [6] Company Performance - In the second quarter of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 9.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.7% and a net profit of 0.39 billion yuan, up 20.9% year-on-year [7] - The company’s main products showed a trend of increasing volume but decreasing prices, particularly in functional materials, which have become a significant growth driver [7]

报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） 上 市 公 司 | 市场数据： | 2025 年 09 月 05 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 14.77 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 16.72/8.80 | | 市净率 | 1.9 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 1.62 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 59,126 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,812.51/12,590.56 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | 建筑材料 2025 年 09 月 07 日 中国巨石 (600176) ——高端市场差异化突出，公司盈利持续修复 郝子禹 A0230524060003 haozy2@swsresearch.com 联系人 郝子禹 (8621)23297818× haozy2@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 7.69 | | 资产负债率% | 39.96 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the textile and apparel industry, particularly highlighting the growth potential in the non-woven fabric sector and the performance of sportswear brands like Lululemon in China [2][3]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the market, with the SW textile and apparel index rising by 1.4% from August 29 to September 5, 2025, surpassing the SW All A index by 2.8 percentage points [3][5]. - The report emphasizes the recovery in the non-woven fabric industry, with significant growth in revenue and profit for key players like Nobon and Jieya, indicating a positive trend in the sector [12][15]. - Lululemon's second-quarter performance in China showed a 25% increase in revenue, reinforcing the strong alpha in the sports market [15][16]. Summary by Sections Textile Sector - The non-woven fabric production peaked in 2020 but has seen a recovery post-pandemic, with a narrowing supply-demand gap. By the first half of 2025, revenue and profit for the non-woven fabric industry are expected to grow by 3.1% and 8.4% year-on-year, respectively [12][13]. - Nobon reported a 33% increase in revenue and a 48% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, exceeding market expectations [12][13]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like Nobon for their growth potential in the non-woven fabric sector, particularly in personal care and new tobacco products [12][13]. Apparel Sector - Lululemon's global revenue grew by 7% to $2.5 billion in the second quarter of 2025, with international business revenue increasing by 22% and a notable 25% growth in mainland China [15][16]. - The report highlights the strong performance of high-end and cost-effective brands in the sportswear sector, with companies like Anta and Li Ning showing resilience despite market challenges [16][17]. - The report recommends investment in sportswear brands such as Anta, Li Ning, and 361 Degrees, as well as discount retailers like Hailan Home [16][17]. Market Trends - The retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles in China reached 837.1 billion yuan from January to July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [29][32]. - The textile and apparel export value for the first seven months of 2025 was $170.74 billion, with a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year, although clothing exports saw a decline of 0.3% [32][36]. - Cotton prices have shown a slight decline, with the domestic cotton price index at 15,297 yuan per ton as of September 5, 2025, down 0.3% [36][37].