Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [5][15]. Core Insights - The report anticipates significant earnings growth for key companies in the non-ferrous metals sector in the first half of 2025, with some companies expected to achieve over 50% year-on-year growth due to rising metal prices and increased production [4][5]. - The long-term trend for gold prices is expected to rise, driven by changes in monetary credit structures and low gold reserves in China, suggesting a sustained upward movement in gold prices [5]. - The copper market is projected to experience a long-term bullish cycle due to limited new supply and increasing demand from the renewable energy sector [5]. - The steel industry is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics as the government addresses low-price competition among enterprises [5]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Key companies such as Shandong Gold, Shanjin International, and Zijin Mining are highlighted for their strong earnings growth potential in 2025H1, with year-on-year growth rates exceeding 50% for several firms [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the historical low valuation of the gold sector, suggesting potential for recovery and recommending stocks like Shandong Gold and Zijin Mining [5]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are expected to rise in the long term due to limited new supply and increasing demand, with companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum recommended for investment [5]. - The aluminum sector is projected to recover significantly in 2025, with companies like Yun Aluminum and China Hongqiao highlighted for their cost improvements and stable dividends [5]. Steel Industry - The report notes that the steel industry is undergoing a transformation with government measures to optimize supply and demand, recommending companies like Baosteel and Nanjing Steel for their stable earnings [5][10]. Growth Cycle Investment - The report suggests that after interest rate cuts, the valuation center for stable supply-demand sectors like new energy manufacturing is expected to rise, recommending companies such as Huafeng Aluminum and Asia-Pacific Technology [5].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" [2][8] Core Views - The company plans to acquire 100% equity of Nantai Lake Power Technology Co., Ltd. for 1.457 billion yuan, which will enhance its heating and power generation capacity [5][8] - The acquisition will add 480t/h of heating capacity and 48MW of installed capacity, expected to boost revenue and net profit in the heating segment [5][8] - The company has a stable growth in the cogeneration business, being a leading player in Zhejiang province with six cogeneration companies [8] - The company commits to a minimum dividend payout ratio of 40%, with an estimated increase in dividend yield from 4.92% to 5.01% post-acquisition [8] - The financial forecast for net profit is revised to 940 million yuan for 2025, with further increases expected in subsequent years [7][8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 44,994 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.6% [7] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 940 million yuan, reflecting a 27.3% increase compared to the previous year [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.68 yuan for 2025, with a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 8 [7][8]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Views - The management model of Western Lide CSI Artificial Intelligence combines active and quantitative strategies organically to capture AI investment opportunities. The quantitative strategy aims to create a portfolio with strict exposure control, while the active strategy focuses on identifying investment opportunities in niche AI sectors [1][13]. - Since 2025, the performance of Western Lide CSI Artificial Intelligence has closely followed the benchmark index, with a slight lead in returns. It can moderately generate excess returns compared to passive index products and has relatively controllable risks compared to active equity products [1]. - The other products managed by the fund managers also have distinct characteristics. Western Lide Quantitative Optimization One - Year Holding has high turnover, a diversified portfolio, and focuses on small - cap stocks, while Western Lide Juhe has high turnover, high concentration, and obvious industry rotation features [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Western Lide CSI Artificial Intelligence: Combining Active and Quantitative Strategies to Seize AI Investment Opportunities 1.1 Management Team - The fund is co - managed by Zhai Zijian (quantitative fund manager) and Wu Haijian (active fund manager). Zhai has an investment manager tenure of 1.73 years, manages 3 products with a total scale of 1.391 billion yuan, and started managing this fund on November 30, 2024. Wu has an investment manager tenure of 3.21 years, manages 2 products with a total scale of 408 million yuan, and started managing this fund on January 2, 2025 [1][5]. - Both managers have achieved good performance in their separately managed products. Zhai's other two products significantly outperformed the benchmark in 2025, and Wu's Western Lide Juhe achieved an excess return of over 15% compared to the benchmark in the first half of 2025 [6]. 1.2 Product Investment Framework - The quantitative part uses a multi - strategy framework including multi - factor and machine - learning strategies, with similar weightings. The goal is to create a portfolio with strict exposure control, limiting style deviations to within ±1% and keeping tracking errors low [13][14]. - The active part aims to identify investment opportunities in niche AI sectors. The research team conducts systematic tracking of the AI track, and the fund manager selects sectors with high prosperity and large space through top - down industry comparisons [14]. - The combination of quantitative and active strategies is an organic cooperation. When there are no clear investment opportunities, the product mainly relies on the quantitative strategy; when opportunities arise, it actively deviates and uses quantitative methods to control the deviation [16]. 1.3 Product Overview - Western Lide CSI Artificial Intelligence was established in June 2021, with a management fee of 1.20% and a custody fee of 0.20%. It is the only AI - themed enhanced fund in the market [18]. - The fund aims to achieve long - term stable appreciation of assets by controlling the daily average tracking deviation and annualized tracking error from the performance benchmark, with a target daily average tracking error of no more than 0.5% and an annualized tracking error of no more than 8% [18]. 2. Product Performance and Characteristics: Following the Index Closely in H1 2025 with Moderate Position Deviation 2.1 Performance - In the first half of 2025, the product achieved a 6.80% return, slightly leading the benchmark index's 6.26%. The net value trend was basically consistent with the index, with low tracking error [1][22]. - Compared with passive index products and active equity products, it can moderately generate excess returns and has relatively controllable risks [25]. 2.2 Product Holdings - Based on the top ten重仓 stocks in 25Q1, the product's holdings generally follow the index distribution with small - scale over - or under - weighting of individual stocks. Some stocks were over - weighted by about 0.4%, while others were under - weighted by about 1.2% [30]. 3. Summary of Other Products Managed by the Fund Managers 3.1 Western Lide Quantitative Optimization One - Year Holding - It has high turnover (over 10 times in 2024) and a highly diversified portfolio (the proportion of the top 30 stocks is less than 25%) [34]. - It focuses on small - cap stocks, with a small - cap allocation ratio ranging from 70% to 90% in each period, and does not over - allocate to micro - cap stocks [34]. - The heavy - position stocks rotate quickly, with a short heavy - position cycle (less than 2 quarters) and low weights (the highest single - stock weight is no more than 1%). Trading contributes significantly to excess returns [38][40]. 3.2 Western Lide Juhe - It has high turnover (over 10 times in each period and over 20 times in 2024) and a relatively concentrated portfolio (the proportion of the top ten heavy - position stocks is mostly over 60%) [49]. - It has a balanced market - cap style, with a relatively even allocation of large, medium, and small - cap stocks, and obvious industry rotation characteristics [52]. - Trading is the main source of excess returns, and the product has strong industry and stock - selection capabilities, stable hidden trading capabilities, and outstanding performance in upward markets [55][60].

韩强 A0230518060003 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 国防军工 2025 年 07 月 17 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 研究支持 田昕 A0230124060003 tianxin@swsresearch.com 联系人 田昕 (8621)23297818× tianxin@swsresearch.com 订单逐级有序传导，业绩拐点将至 看好 ——国防军工行业 2025 年二季报业绩前瞻 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 及 产 业 ⚫ 订单逐级有序传导，业绩拐点将至。我们选取 48 家分布于军工产业链上中下游的重点 标的，当前总市值 13205.2 亿元，约占申万国防军工指数成分股总市值的 48.4%。我们 预计军工行业 48 家重点标的公司预计 2025Q2 业绩总计约 67.68 亿元 ...

2025 年 07 月 17 日 继峰股份 (603997) ——Q2 扣非环比提升，业绩改善趋势有望延续 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： 2025 年 07 月 16 日 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 12.48 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 14.90/9.68 | | 市净率 | 3.3 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | - | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 15,825 | | 上证指数/深证成指 3,503.78/10,720.81 | | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 3.82 | | 资产负债率% | 75.03 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 1,268/1,268 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 07-16 08-16 09-16 10-16 11-16 12-16 01-16 02-16 03-16 04-16 05-16 06- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in Q2 2025 [6]. Core Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery after a significant decline in prices, with supply disruptions increasing and clear bottom signals emerging. The industry is expected to see improved performance as demand gradually picks up [5][6]. - Key sub-sectors expected to show significant profit growth in H1 2025 include pesticides, fluorochemicals, civil explosives, potassium fertilizers, sweeteners, semiconductor manufacturing and packaging materials, display materials, and modified plastics [5]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on specific segments that are likely to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics, including traditional cyclical sectors and emerging growth areas such as electronic materials and new energy materials [6][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In Q2 2025, the chemical industry is projected to recover from previous downturns, with Brent crude oil prices averaging $68.03 per barrel, down 20% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter. Natural gas prices increased by 52% year-on-year but decreased by 9% quarter-on-quarter [5]. - The report notes that the overall operating rate in the industry is expected to rise, with downstream demand gradually following suit, despite previous inventory levels being relatively high [5]. Key Company Forecasts - Major companies in the chemical sector are expected to report varying profit results for Q2 2025. For instance, Wanhua Chemical is projected to achieve a net profit of 2.5 billion yuan, down 38% year-on-year, while Baofeng Energy is expected to report a profit of 3 billion yuan, up 59% year-on-year [5][9]. - The report emphasizes the performance of specific companies, such as Juhua Co., which is expected to see a profit of 1.25 billion yuan, up 139% year-on-year, and Sanmei Co., projected to achieve 600 million yuan, up 162% year-on-year [5][9]. Sector-Specific Insights - The fluorochemical sector is highlighted for its ongoing positive trends, with the report suggesting that the adjustment of quota systems will not alter the long-term upward trajectory of refrigerants [7]. - The tire industry is also noted for potential recovery, with major players expected to benefit from improved cost structures and demand dynamics despite facing challenges from trade tariffs [7]. Growth Opportunities - The report identifies growth opportunities in the semiconductor materials sector, with companies like Yake Technology expected to report stable earnings. The domestic semiconductor industry is progressing towards greater self-sufficiency, which is anticipated to drive demand for related materials [7]. - New energy materials are also highlighted, with companies like Xinzhou Bang expected to see growth in profits, reflecting the ongoing transition towards sustainable energy solutions [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Credit - bond ETFs may become important asset allocation and liquidity management tools for institutional investors due to their low fees, controllable credit risks, good liquidity (T + 0), and leverage benefits, but they may have a certain "crowding - out" effect on existing bond investments [5]. - Under the expansion of credit - bond ETFs, seizing constituent bonds has become an important strategy for investors. Recently, affected by the expansion, the market has seen a continuous trend of seizing constituent bonds, with these bonds performing well, having significantly higher liquidity, and lower yields and credit spreads compared to non - constituent bonds [5]. - In a low - interest - rate environment and with the expansion of credit - bond ETFs, potential risks under changes in institutional behavior should be noted. In the face of significant market shocks, credit - bond ETFs may face significant discounts and redemption pressures [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Credit - bond ETF Mechanism Analysis 3.1.1 What is a Credit - bond ETF? - A credit - bond ETF is an open - ended index fund that is listed and traded on a stock exchange and invests in a portfolio of bonds listed on the stock exchange corresponding to a specific credit - bond index. Its investment goal is to minimize the tracking deviation and tracking error from the index, with requirements for controlling the absolute value of the daily average tracking deviation and the annualized tracking error. It has advantages such as low fees, controllable credit risks, good liquidity (T + 0), and leverage benefits (pledgeable for repurchase). It mainly invests in the constituent bonds and alternative bonds of the target index (≥ 80%/90% of the fund's net value), and its investment strategies include sampling replication and substitution strategies [2][9]. 3.1.2 How to Subscribe and Redeem Credit - bond ETFs? - The fund manager publishes the subscription and redemption list (PCF) before the market opens every day. The subscription and redemption of credit - bond ETFs follow a T + 0 confirmation and T + 2 fund settlement mechanism. On T day, investors can submit subscription or redemption applications during trading hours, and the shares or physical bonds are immediately available after the delivery of the consideration (portfolio bonds/cash). On T + 1 day, the settlement of cash substitution and the clearing of cash differences are carried out. Within T + 2 days, the settlement of cash differences is completed (the manager buys bonds on behalf of investors, with excess refunded and shortage supplemented). Except for short - term financing ETFs and some science - innovation bond ETFs (such as those of Fullgoal and Southern) which require full - cash substitution for subscription and redemption, others allow cash substitution for subscription but mostly do not allow it for redemption [2][32]. 3.1.3 Deconstruction of Credit - bond ETF Liquidity - T + 0 trading: Successfully subscribed shares can be used immediately, and can be sold, redeemed, or pledged on the same day. Bonds obtained from redemption can be sold, pledged, or used to subscribe for other ETFs on the same day. - Pledge repurchase: Currently, 9 credit - bond ETFs are included in the general pledge library, with a pledge rate mostly around 60% (determined by China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited based on the principle of prudence and updated daily). Science - innovation bond ETFs may also be included in the future. - Market - maker system: Market - makers provide liquidity services such as two - sided quotes, and market - making assessment indicators include hard requirements such as quote time coverage, maximum spread limit, and minimum quote volume [2][40]. 3.2 Main Investors in Credit - bond ETFs - Credit - bond ETF investors are mainly institutional investors, accounting for nearly 90%. Among the top ten investors, securities firms' proprietary trading accounts for the highest proportion (about 48%), and banks, trusts, and insurance companies are also important investors (with each accounting for over 10%) [2]. - Except for short - term financing ETFs and urban investment bond ETFs, the concentration of investors in other credit - bond ETFs is relatively high (the total proportion of the top ten investors often exceeds 60%). The top ten investors in the initial offering of benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs and science - innovation bond ETFs are mostly securities firms' proprietary trading. However, the types of investors in benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs are more diverse, while science - innovation bond ETFs have more institutions such as banks, trusts, and wealth management companies among their investors [2][70]. 3.3 Impact of Credit - bond ETFs on Institutional Behavior - Credit - bond ETFs may become important asset allocation and liquidity management tools for institutional investors, but they may also have a certain "crowding - out" effect on existing bond investments [5]. - Under the expansion of credit - bond ETFs, seizing constituent bonds has become an important strategy for investors, leading to better performance and higher liquidity of these bonds [5]. - In a low - interest - rate environment and with the expansion of credit - bond ETFs, in the face of significant market shocks, credit - bond ETFs may face significant discounts and redemption pressures. The impact on the market during the redemption stage may have different scenarios, including direct selling pressure on constituent bonds, a further decline in the liquidity of constituent bonds, and an increase in the redemption pressure on other bond funds [5].

Group 1: AI Medical Industry Insights - The AI medical sector is entering a new phase of multi-modal integration and practical application, driven by technological changes that alter application scenarios and data utilization [11] - Clinical auxiliary diagnosis and drug development are leading commercialization, while health management potential remains to be unlocked [11] - Key investment targets include AI-assisted diagnosis, internet healthcare, and AI drug development, with specific companies highlighted for each segment [11] Group 2: Lin Qingxuan's Market Position - Lin Qingxuan is a leading high-end domestic skincare brand in China, focusing on camellia oil as a core ingredient and achieving significant sales milestones [11][12] - The company has demonstrated strong financial performance, with revenue projected to grow from 690 million yuan in 2022 to 1.21 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32.7% [11] - The skincare market in China is expected to grow significantly, with the market size projected to increase from 332.9 billion yuan in 2019 to 461.9 billion yuan by 2024 [12] Group 3: Power Industry Developments - Gansu Province has introduced a capacity pricing mechanism for coal power, which is expected to enhance the profitability stability of coal power plants [16] - The new pricing mechanism aligns with national standards and is anticipated to improve the revenue stability of coal power plants, thereby optimizing the energy structure in China [16] - The introduction of capacity pricing for energy storage systems is expected to increase investment in storage solutions, improving the consumption rate of renewable energy [16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to continue strong growth driven by its proprietary brands and the launch of new brands [7] - The company reported a net profit of 63 million to 78 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 61.81% to 100.33% [7] - The self-owned brand strategy has proven to be a significant growth engine, with notable performance from the "Zhanjia" product line and the introduction of new health products [7] - The company has optimized internal management, leading to improved efficiency and reduced costs [7] - The company has launched a new health product brand, "VitaOcean," which is expected to open new growth opportunities [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach 3,014 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 70.7% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 180 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 70.6% [6] - Earnings per share are forecasted to be 0.82 yuan in 2025, up from 0.65 yuan in 2024 [6] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 49.4% in 2025 [6] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 14.3% in 2025 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the aviation industry is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [7]. Core Insights - The civil aviation passenger transport volume continued to grow steadily in June, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, reaching approximately 60.9 million passengers. Capacity saw a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year [4]. - The average aircraft utilization rate in June was 7.8 hours per day, showing a month-on-month decrease of 1% but remained stable year-on-year [4]. - Major airlines reported growth in capacity and passenger turnover, with notable increases from Spring Airlines (+12%) and China Eastern Airlines (+10%) in passenger turnover compared to the previous year [4]. - The international market is recovering, with June international flight numbers reaching 55,000, recovering to 87.1% of the same period in 2019 [4]. - The report highlights a structural differentiation in recovery across regions, with demand expected to accelerate as the summer travel season begins [4]. Summary by Sections Passenger Transport Data - In June, the total passenger transport volume was approximately 60.9 million, a 3.8% increase year-on-year. Domestic market capacity increased by 0.3%, while international flights reached 55,000, recovering to 87.1% of 2019 levels [4][5]. - Airlines' passenger turnover (RPK) showed growth, with China Eastern Airlines at +10% and Spring Airlines at +12% year-on-year [4]. Airline Performance - The report provides a summary of key airline metrics for June, including ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) and RPK, with China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines showing significant growth [5]. - The passenger load factor for June was highest for Spring Airlines at 92.1%, while China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines also reported strong load factors [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends continued investment in the aviation sector, highlighting the strong supply logic and demand elasticity, with specific recommendations for China National Aviation, China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and others [4][7].